SPECIAL COVERAGE FROM TBILISI: Vladimir Socor


Aug. 22, 2008 - Writing from the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor offers insight into the ongoing crisis in Georgia (the following articles appear in Eurasia Daily Monitor):

RUSSIAN TROOPS IN GEORGIA: PULLOUT, PULL-BACK, OR STAY PUT?

Russian troops were supposed to withdraw by August 22 from all of Georgia’s interior areas. That was Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s word to Nicolas Sarkozy, when the French president -- broker of the August 12-13 armistice -- telephoned Medvedev several times afterward for clarification. Some Russian forces began moving back to Russia on August 22, but the pace and scope of the withdrawal remains unclear. Until August 21 the Russians seemed to be stalling for time. They seized some logistical nerve centers in Georgia’s interior, with the apparent intention to control the country’s transportation system. And they began carving out two “security zones” under Russian military control...
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NATO MINISTERIAL MEETING DEALS GINGERLY WITH RUSSIA’S WAR ON GEORGIA

For an organization that has come to rely heavily on words and symbolism, NATO issued a disconcertingly evasive communiqué at its emergency meeting on Georgia. The North Atlantic Council held a “special session” at the level of Foreign Ministers in Brussels on August 19, eleven days into Russia’s military invasion of Georgia. One attending official seriously remarked that collecting 26 ministers in August took time and could be seen as a success in itself. But it seems just as likely that the Alliance delayed the meeting in hopes that Russian troops would have begun withdrawing from Georgia by August 19, sparing the Alliance the trouble to deal with that problem. In the event, however, that problem stared NATO’s ministerial session in the face...
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RUSSIA NULLIFIES FRENCH-BROKERED ARMISTICE IN GEORGIA

The Kremlin has already nullified the agreement on cessation of hostilities in Georgia, which French President Nicolas Sarkozy had brokered with Presidents Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow and Mikheil Saakashvili in Tbilisi on August 12-13. Russia has junked the six-point agreement in the traditional way of Russian and Soviet diplomacy in Europe’s East: It eviscerates an international agreement of its content while preserving its carcass for continuing reference to excuse Kremlin actions...
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BEYOND SOUTH OSSETIA AND ABKHAZIA: MORE RUSSIAN NIBBLING AT GEORGIAN TERRITORY?

While breaching its six obligations under the French-brokered armistice agreement, Russia is using the same agreement’s loopholes to justify the continuing military occupation and vandalization of Georgian territories. Moscow demands the creation of a Russian-controlled “security zone” farther south from South Ossetia, inside Georgian territory that had never been contested. Russia has introduced this demand as a precondition to a hypothetical start of a partial withdrawal of Russian troops from the rest of Georgia. The Russians want a territory reaching 20 to 25 kilometers beyond the administrative border of South Ossetia, jutting toward Tbilisi...
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RUSSIA PREPARING TO SPLINTER GEORGIA AFTER SARKOZY-BROKERED ARMISTICE

The Kremlin is not honoring the French-brokered agreement on cessation of hostilities and troop withdrawal from Georgia. Russian troops are roaming and rampaging at will through parts of Georgia and are preparing to seize chunks of its territory for the long term. Meanwhile, Russia brandishes the threat to dismember the entire country. Such threats reflect Moscow’s goal to reduce Georgia to political obedience by changing the country’s government. In the process, Moscow embarrasses French President Nicolas Sarkozy by casting doubt on his promise to secure the withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgia. The Russians are even asking Georgia through Sarkozy to accept larger “security zones” under Russian control in Georgian territory, as a price for implementing the Sarkozy-brokered agreement, which heavily favors Russia in the first place...
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RUSSIA’S WAR ON GEORGIA IS AIMED AGAINST THE WEST

For the fifth day running, Russian forces are pursuing their onslaught against Georgia. Russian troops have brutally advanced far beyond the so-called conflict zones, deep inside the country, occupying towns and villages and destroying Georgia’s infrastructure through aerial bombardments. In addition, the Russian Navy has begun an economic blockade of Georgia. The Kremlin already imposed overland and air transport blockades between Georgia and Russia two years ago. Now, Russia has begun a maritime blockade as well. This war is not simply about Georgia; it is far more than a Russia-Georgia conflict. This conflict is about the creation of a “Unbrave New World,” parallel and alternative to the Western world. It would be a domain policed by KGB alumni, regulated by Russian state energy monopolies, and expanded by military force through the incorporation of non-Russian territories. If allowed to expand as it now does in Georgia, this domain will soon become the power base for a direct Russian challenge to Western values and interests...
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SARKOZY ARMISTICE PLAN FAVORS RUSSIA, UNDERCUTS GEORGIA

On August 12 in Moscow, following Georgia’s unilateral ceasefire, French President Nicolas Sarkozy agreed with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on the conditions for Russia to cease hostilities against Georgia. That evening, Medvedev announced that Russia was temporarily ceasing hostilities against Georgia. That same evening Sarkozy flew from Moscow to Tbilisi and presented the Franco-Russian document to Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili for hurried consideration and quick acceptance. Saakashvili and Sarkozy did some editing, during which Sarkozy telephoned Medvedev twice from the Georgian presidential headquarters. The French and Georgian presidents made an outline of the document public with a few comments at a joint press conference in Tbilisi early on August 13. The six-point document sets the conditions for a Russian cessation of hostilities. It is meant to open the way for subsequent negotiations toward a political settlement on South Ossetia, where Russia initiated this war against Georgia in early August. In essence, Sarkozy’s plan attempts to buy Russian military restraint at the cost of long-term concessions deeply damaging to Georgia...
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SARKOZY-MEDVEDEV PLAN FLAWED IN SUBSTANCE AND PROCESS

French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s initiative for a Russian cease-fire in Georgia is undoubtedly a helpful short-term measure, dictated by military necessity. It is also a welcome sign of more active European involvement in the South Caucasus after a long period of neglect. The French president and his Minister of Foreign Affairs Bernard Kouchner may even have developed the ambition to match, in the South Ossetia conflict, the role that Germany is attempting to play as honest broker in the Abkhazia conflict. Sarkozy’s six-point plan is, however, a Sarkozy-Medvedev plan, fully approved by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. It would require Georgia to pay a heavy political price, now and in the future, for the cessation of Russian military hostilities on August 13 (if the cessation holds). Unless significantly amended, the August 12-13 text of the plan would unwittingly strengthen Russia’s hand in annexing South Ossetia and blackmailing the Georgian government. The plan’s not-so-hidden traps need to be removed in order for the document to become a basis for further negotiations...
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