Brian M. Perkins
Brian M. Perkins is an Intelligence Manager at a large risk management consultancy and is a former Navy Signals Intelligence Analyst. He has published extensively in peer-reviewed and non peer-reviewed journals and has been cited by the UNHCR, academic presses, and international media outlets. His research primarily focuses on Yemen, though he regularly writes about terrorism and political violence in the broader MENA region.
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Articles by Brian M. Perkins
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Turkey Courts African States as France Seeks EU Partners Brian M. Perkins Turkey’s increasingly assertive military and economic role has seen the balance of power across several key regions begin
Houthi Offensive in Marib Represents Dual Threat to Yemeni Government
The oil-rich governorate of Marib has increasingly become the focal point of the war in Yemen as the Houthis’ determination to take control of the strategic governorate has intensified over
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STC Gains Highlight the Need for a Succession Plan for President Hadi Brian M. Perkins Representatives from the Southern Transitional Council (STC) met with Yemeni Prime Minister Maeen Abdulmalik Saeed
Motivations and Roadblocks for South African Intervention in Mozambique
The need for a military intervention in northern Mozambique is becoming more clear with each passing week, particularly after Islamic State Central Africa Province (IS-CAP) captured the key port of
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What Will Come of Uzbek and Central Asian Militant Groups Fighting Alongside the Taliban? Brian M. Perkins As the United States has worked to finalize the peace deal with the
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IS-CAP Attack Claims in DRC Increase, but Capabilities Largely Remain the Same Brian M. Perkins The number of attacks Islamic State Central Africa Province (IS-CAP) has claimed in the Democratic
Libyan War Upsets Fragile Tunisian Government
The increasingly intractable war in Libya is remaking the political landscape in Tunisia as powerful international players vie for influence across the region. The shifting political realities in Tunis are
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Can and Will the SADC Help Contain Violence in Mozambique? Brian M. Perkins The insurgency in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province has continued to escalate over the past several months,
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UAE Expands its Influence in the Horn of Africa Brian M. Perkins The UAE has significantly increased its engagement in the Horn of Africa over the past several years, using
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The Libyan Conflict and the Moroccan-Algerian Arms Race Brian M. Perkins Algeria and Morocco have long been in competition for diplomatic and military supremacy in the Maghreb and have intermittently
The STC’s Carrot and Stick and its Rivalry with Islah
Saudi Arabia’s military adventurism in Yemen has been nothing short of disastrous. As political and economic woes are beginning to hit home, the kingdom is struggling to maintain its resolve
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Constitutional Amendment Foreshadows Algerian Military Involvement in the Region Brian M. Perkins Algerian military and intelligence services are undergoing significant change as Libya continues to grapple with its civil war
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Southern Transitional Council Seeks Leverage with Declaration of Self-Rule Brian M. Perkins Saudi Arabia’s attempts to extricate itself from the war in Yemen became increasingly complicated as the Riyadh Agreement
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Oman’s Delicate Domestic Balance Brian M. Perkins Oman’s longstanding financial and governance model is being tested like never before as the country’s economy continues to decline due to its historic
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Attacks Demonstrate IS-CAP Evolution in Mozambique Brian M. Perkins Northern Mozambique has witnessed a significant escalation of operations by Islamic State Central Africa Province (IS-CAP) in recent weeks, with the
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The Shifting Power of al-Qaeda’s Affiliates Brian M. Perkins Several significant developments with broad implications for al-Qaeda and its global affiliates have taken place since early 2019. Leadership losses and
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Iraq’s Political Crisis Further Hinders Anti-IS Security Collaboration Brian M. Perkins Iraq's political crisis continues to worsen as Abdul Mahdi's intended successor, Mohammed Allawi, withdrew his candidacy (Al Jazeera, March
The Emerging Triad of Islamic State Central Africa Province
The ongoing conflict in northern Mozambique has gathered pace over the past several months and shows little sign of abating, despite the Mozambican military and Russian private military contractor (PMC)
Abdul Reza Shahlai: The IRGC’s Man in Yemen
On January 3, the same day the United States conducted the airstrike that killed Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Qasem Soleimani and prominent Iraqi politician and militia leader Abu
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Afghanistan: Taliban’s Actions Will Help Decide Future of IS-K Brian M. Perkins As the United States and the Taliban are set to begin a partial truce as part of long-running
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The Door for Iran Remains Open in Bahrain Brian M. Perkins Tensions between the United States and Iran following the killing of Major General Qasem Soleimani drew speculation of retaliatory
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Oman’s Ability to Balance Competing Priorities Will Help Shape the Gulf in Coming Years Brian M. Perkins During the fraught aftermath of the airstrike that killed Major General Qasem Soleimani,
Magufuli’s Reign and Tanzania’s Creeping Radicalization Issue
Over the past several years, Tanzania has served as an origin and transit point for radicalized individuals fighting alongside terrorist groups operating in nearby countries, particularly al-Shabaab in Somalia and
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Philippines Lifts Martial Law Amid Fragile Gains Brian M. Perkins On January 1, the government lifted martial law on the embattled Philippines island of Mindanao, which has long been plagued
Ibrahim Ahmed Mahmoud al-Qosi: From Guantanamo Bay Detainee to AQAP Leader
The U.S. State Department offered a $4 million reward for Ibrahim Ahmed Mahmoud al-Qosi (a.k.a. Abu Khubaib al-Sudani) through its Rewards for Justice program in November, bringing the longtime al-Qaeda
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Indonesia: Jamaah Ansharut Daulah’s Family Approach and Freedom of Movement Challenges Indonesian Forces Brian M. Perkins Indonesian security forces have launched a significant crackdown on suspected members of the IS-linked
Islamic State and AQAP Could Exploit Disorder in Southern Yemen
Though the war in Yemen is far from over, the conflict is at least seemingly moving in a more positive direction as the Saudi coalition is engaging in indirect talks
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Bahrain Remains Powder Keg for Iranian Proxy Conflict Brian M. Perkins Iranian involvement in the most prominent conflicts in the Middle East—particularly in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon—has dominated international headlines
The Cross Pollination of East Africa’s Armed Groups
East Africa and its peripheral countries, particularly the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), are experiencing an evolution of their security landscapes as jihadist ideologies continue to creep into domestic
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Al-Qaeda Likely to Exploit Baghdadi’s Death Brian M. Perkins The death of Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is being hailed as a victory by al-Qaeda, which stands to
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Iraq Protests Could Help Check Iranian Influence Brian M. Perkins Anti-government demonstrations taking place in Iraq pose a new, precarious challenge for both the United States and Iran as the
Implications of the Jeddah Agreement on the War in Yemen
The Jeddah Agreement, which is the latest ceasefire deal regarding the war in Yemen, is not one that will see the Houthi rebels lay down their arms. Instead, the Saudi
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Preventing Spread of Terrorism in Coastal West Africa Brian M. Perkins A spate of deadly attacks by militant groups in Mali and Burkina Faso came just weeks after a key
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Maldives: Presidential Commission Findings Prompt Proposed Changes to Anti-Terror Act Brian M. Perkins The Maldivian government introduced a sweeping new bill that would amend the 2015 Anti-Terrorism Act as the
Insurgent Violence and Growing Russian Involvement: Tense Elections in Mozambique
As violence continues in northern Mozambique, a series of important developments that will undoubtedly affect the ongoing insurgency are beginning to unfold. The country is gearing up for its October
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Iraq: External Actions Against PMF Threaten Delicate Balance Brian M. Perkins Iraq remains in an extremely precarious position after declaring victory over Islamic State (IS) in December 2017, and regional
Some Old, Some New: Grievances, Players, and Backers in the Conflict in Southern Yemen
The war in Yemen has grown increasingly intractable over the past several months as the long-simmering rift within the anti-Houthi coalition has widened, with violence between the pro-secession Southern Transitional
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Yemen: Long-simmering Tensions Between Southern Forces and Pro-Hadi Forces Erupt in Aden Brian M. Perkins Aside from the remote portions of Yemen’s eastern governorates, Southern Yemen has experienced the least
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Mozambique: Islamic State Claims Reveal Little About Ansar al-Sunna Brian M. Perkins Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP)—which is comprised of a wing in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
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Afghanistan: Al-Qaeda Primed to Continue Expanding in Afghanistan Brian M. Perkins Despite being less flashy than its rival Islamic State (IS), al-Qaeda and its affiliates have achieved a lot over
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Morocco Continues to Face Terror Threat Despite Success of BCIJ Brian M. Perkins It has been more than six months since a group of Moroccans inspired by Islamic State (IS)
US-Iran Tensions Overshadow Houthi Agenda in War in Yemen
Continued tensions between the United States and Iran have begun having second order effects on the war in Yemen. The war was, somewhat wrongfully, originally characterized as a proxy war
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Mozambique: Exploring Tentative Links Between Islamic State, ADF, and Ansar al-Sunnah Brian M. Perkins Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for an attack in Mozambique on June 4, the first such
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Iraq: US-Iran Tensions Inflaming Divisions Already Being Exploited by Islamic State Brian M. Perkins Tensions between the United States and Iran have continued to escalate in recent weeks amid concerns
Rising Threat of Radicalization in Kerala and Connections to Sri Lanka
Aside from a branch of fighters in the restive region of Jammu and Kashmir, India has largely been spared violence at the hands of fighters belonging to, or aligned with,
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Burkina Faso: Recent Attacks Point to Spread of Terrorism in Burkina Faso and the Region Brian M. Perkins On May 16, Burkina Faso’s Foreign Minister called for the creation of
Evaluating the Expansion of Global Jihadist Movements in Mozambique
The jihadist landscape has increasingly pivoted from the Middle East to Africa, with a proliferation of both local and international terrorist organizations to the continent. The past several years has
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Islamic State Claims Signal Resilience and Shifting Strategy Brian M. Perkins Over the past several weeks, Islamic State (IS) has firmly demonstrated that it has entered the next phase of
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Bangladesh: Political Polarization Makes Return of Terrorism Increasingly Likely Brian M. Perkins Incidents of terrorism have declined significantly in Bangladesh over the past several years following the devastating attack on
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Indonesia: Family Ties in Terrorism Increasingly Evident Ahead of Elections Brian M. Perkins The threat of terrorism continues to loom large in Indonesia as the country gears up for elections
Continued Fighting Between Islamic State and AQAP Complicates Security in al-Bayda
The United States has declared the fall of the Islamic State’s (IS) physical caliphate in Syria, but the group has found fertile ground outside of Syria and Iraq. The group
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New Zealand: Will New Zealand Look to Australia to Expand Anti-Terrorism Legislation? Brian M. Perkins On March 15, a mass shooting at the al-Noor Mosque and Linwood Islamic Centre in
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Islamic State Fighters Regroup in Iraq, Rebuild Support and Smuggling Networks Brian M. Perkins The past several weeks has seen a surge in Islamic State (IS) attacks in Iraq as
Prison Radicalization and Recidivism Threaten Moroccan and European Security
Three months after an Islamic State-inspired cell slayed two Scandinavian hikers in Imlil, authorities continue to uncover more and more small terrorist cells. Many of these groups are comprised of
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Iran: Jaish al-Adl Attack Could See Increased Iran-India Cooperation Brian M. Perkins Iran has seen a recent surge in terrorism incidents within the country over the past year, particularly in
Saudi Arabia and the UAE in al-Mahra: Securing Interests, Disrupting Local Order, and Shaping a Southern Military
The ongoing war in Yemen has wreaked havoc on much of the country, crumbling centuries old buildings, destroying critical infrastructure and leaving countless civilians dead. Fighting has extended to many
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Mali and Somalia: al-Qaeda Affiliates Coordinated Claims Point to Coordination with Core AQ Brian M. Perkins The release of a video message from al-Qaeda’s leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, on February 5
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YEMEN: Houthi Drone Attack and Fragile Ceasefire Brian M. Perkins The fragile Stockholm Agreement ceasefire in Yemen’s port city of Hudaydah that was agreed upon in Sweden on December 18,
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Morocco—Islamic State Sympathizers in Morocco Brian M. Perkins The North African country and popular tourist destination, Morocco, has mostly been spared from the terrorism and jihadist violence that has plagued
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Iran—Suicide Attack in Chabahar Underscores Local Turmoil Brian M. Perkins A suicide bomber detonated an explosive-laden vehicle at a police headquarters in the Iranian port city of Chabahar on December
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Somalia: Rise in al-Shabaab Activity in Central Somalia Al-Shabaab has made a notable resurgence over the past several months, conducting numerous attacks across the country, including in the capital, Mogadishu.
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Cameroon: Biya’s Reelection and Worsening Separatist Violence The reelection of Cameroonian President Paul Biya in October likely forebodes the further destabilization of the Central African nation. Cameroon has been a
Khashoggi, the Hudaydah Offensive and Prospects for Peace in Yemen
Saudi Arabia’s dubious military tactics in Yemen have long been underreported and have drawn surprisingly little scorn from international leaders. The death of Saudi journalist and Washington Post columnist, Jamal
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Lines Between al-Qaeda and JNIM Blur in Burkina Faso Brian M. Perkins Militant violence continues to increase in Burkina Faso as both local and regional militant organizations have spread within
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Pro-Islamic State Groups Threaten Australia Australian authorities have largely managed to mitigate the threat of terrorism within the country over the past several years, foiling more than a dozen plots
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Iraq: Basra Protests Protests that first began in July and intensified in early September have wreaked havoc on Iraq’s port city of Basra. The unrest—motivated by protesting government corruption, and
Clashes Between Islamic State and AQAP Emblematic of Broader Competition
The Islamic State’s (IS) global network is far from defeated, but the core group’s loss of significant territory in Iraq and Syria is emblematic of a longer trend and stands
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Mali: Election Maintains Status Quo Amid Rising Jihadist Threat Mali's presidential election was preceded by outbreaks of violence and terrorist attacks before concluding with a contentious run-off election on August
Wilayat al-Yemen: The Islamic State’s New Front
The protracted and ongoing civil conflict in Yemen has brought to the fore a range of regional threats, both old and new. Most prominently, Yemen’s multisided battle space has already
AQAP Surges in Yemen as War Rages
The Shi’a Houthi rebels’ advance on Yemen’s capital Sana’a from late 2014 was a slow burning conflict that led to the resignation of President Abdu Rabbu Mansur Hadi on January
Following the Peshawar School Attack, Pakistan Moves Against Domestic Terrorism
The attack by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on the Army Public School in Peshawar on December 16 was a watershed moment in the country’s fight against terrorism. The death of 132