MILITARY REFORM:

President Yeltsin signed off on a National Security Council paper that describes the threats to Russia through 2005 and the plans for dealing with them. The paper is the first of its kind prepared under NSC secretary Andrei Kokoshin, named to the job earlier this year. It asserts that large-scale war is unlikely because of Russia’s nuclear deterrent, but there is risk of small-scale wars and internal conflicts. The NSC goes on to recommend assigning responsibility for international security to the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff, with Internal Affairs taking the lead at home. The troops now under the Ministry of Internal Affairs — the MVD — would be reorganized as a professional (that is, all contract) Federal Guard, and the Border Police would face a “gradual transition to mainly nonmilitary forms of service.” Even with President Yeltsin’s signature on it, the report may not survive inevitable bureaucratic challenges to its implementation.