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Russia Exhausts Soviet-Era Arms Storage Bases
Executive Summary: Russia has proposed a pause of the fighting in Ukraine in exchange for strategic arms and space negotiations with the West. The Russian armed forces have been taking Soviet-era arms out of storage as a solution to its dwindling supply of weapons despite... MORE
Moscow Fears Armenia Now Following Same Path as Georgia and Ukraine
Executive Summary: Moscow fears that Armenia may demand that Russia pull its border guards from Yerevan’s international airport and close its military base at Gyumri, following Armenia’s suspension of its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The Kremlin worries about losing influence in Armenia.... MORE
Ukraine’s Drone and Missile Offensive in Black Sea Knocks Russian Navy Flat Aback
Executive Summary: The Russian Navy’s reserve of admirals and ships is steadily decreasing as senior military commanders are losing their positions following numerous setbacks for the Black Sea Fleet at the hands of Ukraine’s drone and missile offensive. These failures and the destruction of one-third... MORE
Nine Things Western Analysts Got Wrong About Russia and Its Invasion of Ukraine
Executive Summary: Many analysts in the West have misunderstood the conflict in Ukraine, leading to the mishandling of aid to Ukraine. Many Western analysts overlooked the historical myth-making that the Kremlin had been promoting for many years, which aimed to erase Ukrainian history and identity.... MORE
Azerbaijan and Serbia Expand Defense Partnership
Executive Summary: Serbian President Alexander Vučić confirmed a new $300 million defense contract with Azerbaijan on February 6, following years of strategic agreements between the two countries. The new defense contract will give Azerbaijan a foothold in the Balkans, providing Baku with a path to... MORE
Russian Military Intelligence Takes Over Wagner Operations in Libya
Executive Summary: Moscow is consolidating the Wagner Group’s operations in Libya under the direct control of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU) and relying on the African Corps under the purview of Russia’s deputy defense minister. Field Marshal... MORE
After Prigozhin: The Anatomy of Russia’s Evolving Private Military and Mercenary Industry
Executive Summary: The Russian mercenary industry has transformed since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 with private military companies (PMCs) and other paramilitary formations taking on a more prominent role in Russia’s military operations. PMCs and other mercenary groups have become key players in... MORE
Armenia’s Break With Moscow Redefines South Caucasus Geopolitics
Executive Summary: Armenia has announced it is suspending cooperation with the Moscow-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a signal that Yerevan may soon reduce or even end other forms of cooperation with Russia. The almost universal assumption that Armenia, because of its geographic location and... MORE
The National People’s Congress Exposes Xi Jinping’s Problems
Executive Summary: Li Qiang’s government work report offered no significant incentives to help the nation’s three sectors most in need of government support. Economic targets were practically identical to those for 2023 but will be harder to achieve. Xi amassed more power through sidelining Li... MORE
BeiDou And Strategic Advancements in PRC Space Navigation
Executive Summary: BeiDou enhances both the PRC’s strategic autonomy and its influence across the world. It has signed agreements with numerous countries to expand its use, including for military applications. An interoperability agreement with the US government diminishes the strategic value of GPS by eliminating... MORE