Executive Summary: Abkhazia, a break-away territory controlled by Russia, is preparing for decisive presidential elections on February 15, which could determine the future trajectory of the separatist region’s foreign policy and relationship to Moscow. Russia is supporting pro-Moscow candidate, former vice-president Badra Gunba, in the... MORE

Executive Summary: During his re-election as Belarus’s President, Alyaksandr Lukashenka warned Poland that any attempt to annex western Ukraine would precipitate a conflict with Belarus and Russia. Lukashenka’s warnings are part of a broader obsession with Poland’s regional and European influence and support for the... MORE

Executive Summary: The PRC is tempering its criticisms of the United States and other powerful countries in the early part of the Trump administration in a seeming attempt to foster a stable external environment while it continues to enhance its national power. Official PRC media... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka was named the winner of Belarus’s seventh presidential election for his seventh consecutive term. This election starkly contrasted with the last election, as it was relatively calm without mass protests. The Western response to the election was overwhelmingly negative,... MORE

Executive Summary: The beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration highlights contrasting views of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The West views it as a non-sensical distortion that should be stopped, and Russian President Vladimir Putin views it as a confrontation with the West. The state... MORE

Executive Summary: At the end of 2024, the United States imposed financial sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire and the informal leader of Georgia, for undermining democratic processes and enabling Russian influence. The sanctions included freezing select assets and restricting transactions. Opposition leaders welcomed the... MORE

Executive Summary: In advance of his sham re-election, Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka has launched an expanded campaign against Roman Catholics, the 14 percent of his nation who have been the most opposed to the Minsk strongman in the past. Moscow has joined this effort to... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus’s presidential election on January 26 will likely hold no democratic legitimacy, with predetermined results ensuring Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s continued rule. Public disillusionment persists amid regime-led propaganda and repression, highlighting the ongoing struggle for democratic reform in Belarus.  Growing economic and political integration is... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s autocratic regime faces global condemnation due to its war against Ukraine, suppression of the opposition, and increasing international isolation. These developments expose the regime’s corruption and deepen its global alienation. Russia’s influence is eroding in key regions, including the... MORE

Executive Summary: Many so-called “Global South” countries feel it is time to do away with what they regard as the double standards of rich countries and are open to alternatives. However, Beijing’s offer comes with a catch: it involves exporting the controlling logic of its... MORE