Military Supplies to Armenia Escalate Tensions in South Caucasus

Executive Summary:

• Armenia is making moves to distance itself from Russia and reduce economic and military dependence on Moscow through deals with other states, including France, India, and, allegedly, Iran.
• The expanding military supplies to Armenia are stirring up tensions with neighboring Azerbaijan and threatening the current fragile state of relations between the two countries.
• Officials in Baku are concerned about this increased militarization, as revanchist-minded political and societal groups in Armenia are calling for a military takeover of Karabakh and other Azerbaijani territories.

On July 31, US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien reaffirmed Washington’s plans to establish a land trade route through Azerbaijan and Armenia (see EDM, July 9; Panorama.am, July 31). He stated that this route aims to offer Central Asian countries an alternative and reduce their reliance on Russia and China for access to global markets. In addition to his earlier remarks, O’Brien pointed out that part of this strategy is aimed to “create conditions” for Armenia to “distance itself from Russia” (see EDM, July 9). According to him, Armenia is “almost completely dependent” on Russia for its economy and energy. Therefore, the United States supports Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s bold steps in his diversification efforts. Armenia’s re-posturing is representative of a geopolitical shift occurring throughout the wider region as the three states of the South Caucasus move further away from Russian influence.

The Armenian government’s diversification efforts also cover the country’s security space, which has been and, to some extent, continues to be dominated by Moscow. In addition to announcing its future withdrawal from Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization and reducing the presence of Russian troops in its territories, Armenia seeks to diversify its arms suppliers by striking deals with France, India, and, reportedly, Iran to diminish its dependency on Russia (Civilnet.am, August 1; see EDM, August 5).

The expanding military supplies to Armenia are stirring up tensions with neighboring Azerbaijan and threatening the fragile state of relations between the two countries. In June, France and Armenia signed a contract for Caesar self-propelled 155-millimeter, 52-caliber cannon howitzers, whose range with advanced projectiles exceeds 50 kilometers (30 miles). The two sides reported that the deal includes the sale of 36 howitzers over the next 15 months, which French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu described as a “new important milestone” in French-Armenian military ties (Azatutyun.am, June 25). The latest deal came upon the heels of a series of similar military contracts between the two countries since France agreed to provide arms to Armenia in October 2023 (France24.com, October 3, 2023; see EDM, November 6, 2023).

The first shipment of 24 Bastion armored personnel carriers (APCs), part of the 50 vehicles from the October deal, was seen in the Georgian Port of Poti in December 2023 en route to Armenia (Azatutyun.am, December 4, 2023). In addition to the APCs, Yerevan and Paris also agreed on a deal for a Mistral short-range air defense system and Thales Group-made GM200 radars, which can simultaneously detect and track multiple aircraft, drones, and even rockets within a 250-kilometer (155-mile) radius (Armenpress.am, October 24, 2023). According to various media reports, the supply of three GM200 radars along with night-vision military equipment took place during the first-ever visit of a French defense minister to Armenia in February 2024 (News.am; Azatutyun.am, February 22). Paris and Yerevan label these weapons as defensive, but local experts claim the opposite, arguing that they could also be used for offensive purposes (Politico.eu, February 23).

In parallel, the European Union has provided direct military support to Armenia. On July 22, the Council of the European Union adopted an assistance measure under the European Peace Facility in support of the Armenian Armed Forces worth 10 million euros ($10.92 million) (Consilium.europa.eu, July 22). According to the official statement, the assistance is meant to “enhance the logistical capacities of the Armenian Armed Forces and to contribute to improved protection of civilians in crises and emergencies.” This assistance is coordinated with the United States and aims to reduce Armenia’s dependency on Russia. O’Brien, in his July 31 statement, pointed out that the European Union and the United States have created “a new platform to reduce Armenia’s dependency on Russia” as a result of the April 5 trilateral meeting of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Pashinyan (State.gov, April 5; Panorama.am, July 31).

India stands out as another major player that Armenia has resorted to for diversification of its military suppliers. Given the expanding Azerbaijani–Pakistani–Turkish trilateral cooperation format, New Delhi seems to be moving closer to Armenia to create a geopolitical balance. India’s arms supply to Armenia first intensified following the end of the Second Karabakh War in November 2020 (see EDM, August 14, 2023, July 25). According to the Indian Finance Ministry, Armenia has become the largest importer of Indian weapons following the latest deal to acquire Pinaka multiple-launch rocket systems and Akash anti-aircraft systems (Azatutyun.am, July 24). Indian media reports that the “total volume of weapons purchased by Armenia from India reached $600 million by the start of the current [fiscal year] 2024–25” (News.am, July 24). Various sources report that since September 2022, Armenia has ordered supplies of other military equipment from India, including rocket launchers, anti-tank rockets, mobile radar systems, and advanced towed artillery gun systems (ATAGS) (Indiandefensenews.in, July 28).

In addition these military purchases, on July 24, Iran International, a Persian-language news channel headquartered in London, referenced an unnamed senior military official and reported that Iran and Armenia signed a secret $500 million arms deal (Iranintl.com, July 24). While both sides denied the report, in its more recent coverage of Pashinyan’s trip to Tehran to attend the inauguration of newly elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, the outlet insisted that the information about the arms deal was true (Iranintl.com, July 30). The agency claims to have seen a list of military items that are planned to be transferred to Armenia, including Shahed-136, Shahed-129, Shahed-197, and Mohajer drones as well as Sevom Khordad, Majid, Khordad 15, and Arman air defense missile systems.

This level of militarization through supplies from multiple sources has caused alarm in Baku, where many officials warn against the detrimental consequences for peace and stability in the region (Mod.gov.az, July 25). Azerbaijani officials’ concerns are amplified by the fact that revanchist-minded political and societal groups in Armenia do not acknowledge the postwar realities in the region and are calling for a military takeover of Karabakh and other Azerbaijani territories. For example, Benjamin Pogosyan, the chairman of the Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies in Yerevan, claims, “The only way to secure the right of returns of Armenians is to end Azerbaijani control over Nagorno Karabakh, and Armenia can do that only through military means” (Mirrorspectator.com, October 14, 2023).

Several other prominent experts and politicians share Pogosyan’s views. Richard Grigosyan, director of the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center, in an interview with Armenian media in December 2023, asserted that the outlook for instability in Azerbaijan caused by the implosion of the country is “the only positive scenario in regaining Karabakh” (Civilnet.am, December 2, 2023). This analysis indirectly refers to the early 1990s when Armenia launched a war and occupied Azerbaijani territories, taking advantage of the “implosion of the country” due to political and economic crises. In response to Baku’s concerns about the new arms deals, the Armenian Foreign Ministry stated, “Armenia does not have any other goal in the field of defense and security beyond the protection of its internationally recognized territory. … We would like to recall the proposal to create a mechanism of mutual [with Azerbaijan] arms control and sign a corresponding agreement” (Mfa.am, July 25). Yet, given the possibility of a renewed conflict, concerns are growing among some in the region that the militarization of Armenia through deals with France, India, Iran, and others may embolden the revanchist forces and undermine the peace process between Baku and Yerevan.