Mongolia Bolsters Relations With Governments of Central Asia

Executive Summary:

• Mongolia is engaging in efforts, including bilateral negotiations and official visits, to improve relations with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan following a long period of stagnant foreign policy toward Central Asia.
• These states share a Soviet legacy, resource extraction-oriented economies, and similar geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges stemming from their position between Russia and China, which provide openings for developing stronger relations with Ulaanbaatar.
• Mongolia’s interest in Central Asia lies in the region’s increasing importance for global trade, logistics, and connectivity, as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan play growing roles in developing and using east-west transit and trade routes.

From June 23 to 26, Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh visited Uzbekistan, marking the first official visit by a Mongolian president in the history of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Following bilateral negotiations, 14 documents were signed to strengthen cooperation in economic, trade, investment, transportation, scientific, agriculture, and tourism. Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev called the visit a “historic” event that resulted in the signing of a Joint Statement of Interstate Relations and Cooperation (President.uz; Gazeta.uz, June 24). Another significant outcome was the inauguration of the Mongolian embassy in Tashkent (Kun.uz, June 24). These developments reflect Mongolia’s latest step toward strengthening ties with Central Asia over the past several years. In 2023, Sadyr Japarov, Kyrgyzstan’s president, paid a visit to Ulaanbaatar for the inauguration of the Kyrgyz embassy there and the signing of bilateral agreements to expand cooperation (Montsame.mn, [1], [2]). Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is expected to visit the Mongolian capital later this year, the first such visit in decades (Kaztag.kz, July 5). The increasing bilateral engagement following a long period of stagnation in the first quarter of the 21st century highlights the two sides’ commitment to open a new dynamic chapter of cooperation. As Russia and China face more restrictions from Western sanctions, Mongolia and the governments of Central Asia are hoping to expand their trade and transit partnerships to better sustain their respective economies. By strengthening relations, Mongolia and the Central Asian states can bolster their economies—Mongolia through developing transport corridors that connect with the West and Central Asia through Mongolia’s connections to East Asian markets.

The history of diplomatic relations between Mongolia and the countries of Central Asia dates back to the early 1990s when these states gained independence from the Soviet Union. At the time, Mongolia effectively gained independence after almost 70 years of being a Soviet satellite state. Out of the five regional countries, Mongolia reached out to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan to build ties. Ulaanbaatar’s prioritization of Central Asia was reflected in the country’s first Concept of Foreign Policy in 1994. Developing relations with the region was listed as Mongolia’s third priority, aimed at “strengthening its position in Asia and securing a constructive participation in the region’s political and economic integration process.” This would be achieved through giving “greater attention” mainly “to North-East and Central Asia” (Unified Legal Information System Website, 1994).

Mongolia’s diplomatic engagement with the region matched the directives laid out in its foreign policy concept. In 1993, Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, paid an official visit to Ulaanbaatar. The two sides signed the Agreement on Friendly Relations and Cooperation, including the framework for further bilateral engagement, strengthening regional stability and the sense of collaboration in Asia, and an agreement to not participate in or sign any military-political treaties that “infringe on the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of the other party” (Zakon.kz, October 22, 1993; Kazinform, November 9, 2022). That same year, a similar document between Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan was signed during the official visit of Kyrgyzstan’s first president, Askar Akayev, to Ulaanbaatar (Montsame.mn, April 22, 2022). In 1992, Mongolia opened an embassy in Kazakhstan. In return, Kazakhstan established a diplomatic mission in Mongolia in 1997 (Kazinform, November 9, 2022). In 1998, former Mongolian President Natsagiin Bagabandi visited Kazakhstan, and in 1999, Kyrgyzstan (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, accessed July 23; Montsame.mn, April 22, 2022).

Mongolia’s diplomacy in Central Asia stagnated in the 2000s. Belgian political scientist John Irgengioro, in his article “Mongolia–Central Asia Relations and the Implications of the Rise of China on its Future Evolution,” argues that this stagnation was due to Mongolia seeking more economic opportunity in East Asia and a lack of connectivity to Central Asia following the collapse of the Soviet Union due to the different levels of Russification they endured and continued ties to Russia. Mongolia turned to English over Russian for international communication to make more connections outside of the post-Soviet space, in contrast to the Central Asian states that stuck with Russian. This created a cultural, economic, and political divide between Mongolia and Central Asia (Mongolia–Central Asia Relations and the Implications of the Rise of China on its Future Evolution, February 21, 2022). 

The number of presidential visits between Central Asian states and Mongolia dwindled in the 2000s, and trade volume either stayed the same or decreased. Akayev’s visit to Mongolia in 2002 was the last by a Kyrgyz president until Japarov’s visit in 2023, and there has not been an official presidential visit from Kazakhstan since Nazarbayev’s visit in 2007. Mongolian President Nambaryn Enkhbayar visited Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan only once in the 2000s during his tenure as president from 2005 to 2009 (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, 2022; Montsam.mn, April 22, 2022). Bilateral trade remained modest by both Mongolian and Central Asian standards.

Recently, there has been more diplomatic interaction between Mongolia and Central Asia. For example, in 2019, Mongolia inaugurated an embassy in Bishkek and, in 2022, introduced a visa-free regime with Uzbekistan (Montsam.mn, June 13, 2019; Gazet.uz, June 6, 2022). In July, Tokayev suggested increasing trade volume to $500 million (trade volume was $124 million in 2023) by adopting a Kazakh-Mongolian business council and Roadmap for the Enhancement of Cooperation (Dzen.ru; Ulysmedia.kz, July 4). In 2023, trade turnover between Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia increased fivefold compared to the previous year (Montsame.mn, April 23). Similarly, Uzbekistan and Mongolia agreed to increase trade volume by five to ten times in the next few years by signing a preferential trade agreement on the mutual simplification of market access, investment protection, and tax principles (Gazeta.uz, June 24).

Mongolia’s growing interest in Central Asia partially lies in the region’s increasing importance for global trade, logistics, and connectivity. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan either already serve or have the potential to become crucial links between the East and West. Due to the levying of sanctions against Russia, the Middle and South corridors, which pass through Central Asia, are emerging as viable alternatives to the Northern Corridor that connects China and Europe via Russia (see EDM, April 19, 2022, April 20, 2023). Mongolia sees Central Asia as a transit hub. One of the agreements signed in June was the Intergovernmental Agreement on International Road Transport. According to the Mongolian government, this document will facilitate the flow of goods from Europe to China via Uzbekistan and Mongolia and from Mongolia and China through Uzbekistan to Europe, Iran, Pakistan, and ports on the Indian Ocean (Montsame.mn, November 17, 2023).

After more than 30 years of stagnant relations, Mongolia and Central Asia are starting to tap into their cooperation potential. Mongolia’s turn toward Central Asia serves as an example of an attempt to address political and economic challenges brought on by global instability through activating old partnerships and finding mutually beneficial areas for cooperation. These states share a Soviet legacy, resource extraction-oriented economies, and similar geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges stemming from their position between and dependence on Russia and China. By working together, they can diversify their economic and political relations and decrease their dependency on outside powers.