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Terminal Authority: Assessing the CCP’s Emerging Crisis of Political Succession

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping continues to dominate the Chinese Party-state system, based on an assessment of evidence from spring and summer 2025. Despite high-level purges, unusual military reshuffles, and persistent rumors of elite dissatisfaction, there is no visible indication that Xi’s personal authority has meaningfully... MORE

Russia-Azerbaijan Tensions Escalate to Unprecedented Level

Executive Summary: A Russian raid in Ekaterinburg targeting ethnic Azerbaijanis on June 27 resulted in deaths, injuries, and allegations of torture. This ignited a severe diplomatic crisis, with Baku accusing Moscow of ethnic violence and launching a criminal investigation. Russia-Azerbaijan relations have been deteriorating since... MORE

Beijing Learning Lessons From Russian Response to Financial War

Executive Summary: Beijing has tracked Russia’s response to what it perceives as financial warfare from the United States and its allies and has begun mitigating its vulnerabilities and building an offensive toolkit in response. Chinese experts take confidence from Moscow’s resilience in face of more... MORE

Inside Taiwan’s Opposition: How the KMT’s Future Could Shape Cross-Strait Stability

Executive Summary: The Kuomintang (KMT) is undergoing a complex transformation, seeking to redefine itself by moving away from its perception as a “pro-China” party to one grounded in support for the Republic of China’s (ROC) democratic institutions. Internal factions—ranging from pro-unification traditionalists to sovereignty-leaning localists—reflect... MORE

PLA Military Aerospace Force: On the Frontier of Innovation and Competition

Executive Summary: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Aerospace Force (ASF) is structured to rapidly integrate space-based surveillance, targeting, and offensive capabilities into any conflict involving the PLA, signaling Beijing’s strategic anticipation of conflicts over Taiwan or the South China Sea. By consolidating the People’s Republic... MORE
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