Moscow Warns Oslo on Svalbard but Suggests ‘Deal’ with United States on Arctic
Executive Summary: Moscow has declared that Oslo strengthening its defenses on Svalbard is a violation of the Svalbard Treaty, implying that Russia views itself as a defender of that treaty and could take military action to defend it. Nikolai Patrushev, a hardline Kremlin aide close... MORE
Poland Prepares for Direct War with Russia
Executive Summary: Poland is accelerating its military build-up for a projected war with Russia as Ukraine faces a potentially unfavorable outcome in the peace talks brokered by the Donald Trump administration. Warsaw plans to introduce voluntary military training for all adult males and bolster Poland’s... MORE
Autonomous Battlefield: PLA Lessons from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Executive Summary: Chinese military experts are incorporating lessons from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on the use and importance of drones and autonomous systems, which is reshaping the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) strategic planning and operational doctrine. In simulated Taiwan Strait scenarios, the PLA has... MORE
Sweden’s SÄPO Reports that Russia is Evolving Sabotage Tactics
Executive Summary: Sweden’s Security Service warns of an alarming shift in Russian espionage tactics, involving the recruitment of individuals suffering from substance addiction for sabotage missions as part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy targeting Sweden and Europe. Sweden’s recent accession to the North Atlantic... MORE
Azerbaijan-Armenia Peace Deal Faces Hurdles
Executive Summary: Armenia and Azerbaijan have finalized the text of a long-awaited “Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations.” The announcement came unexpectedly from Baku and was confirmed soon after by Yerevan. Yerevan seeks to sign the agreement quickly, while Baku says that Armenia... MORE
Putin Sets Additional Preconditions For Ceasefire in Ukraine
Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has declined his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump’s proposal for a comprehensive ceasefire without preconditions in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Putin has set new preconditions for a comprehensive ceasefire, namely a unilateral halt to Ukrainian military mobilization, the resupply of... MORE
He Weidong’s Possible Downfall and Xi’s Trust Deficit With the PLA
Executive Summary: Central Military Commission Vice Chairman He Weidong’s absence from an important public event, one attended by all Politburo members except him, suggests that he is either seriously ill or under investigation. The latter possibility would suggest that Xi Jinping may have lost confidence... MORE
‘Strait Thunder-2025A’ Drill Implies Future Increase in PLA Pressure on Taiwan
Executive Summary: People’s Liberation Army (PLA) operations against Taiwan on April 1–2 consisted of multiple drills that had limited interconnection, distinguishing them from exercises that tend to be more complex and confrontational. Recent training reforms have meant that drills now tend to involve more cross-service... MORE
The PRC Sees ‘Window of Opportunity’ With Europe
Executive Summary: Beijing sees a strategic window of opportunity to drive a wedge between the United States and Europe and improve its economic and trading relationship with the European Union. Officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Party's International Department have used a... MORE
Azerbaijan, Israel, and United States Seek Trilateral Cooperation Format
Executive Summary: Israel announced on March 6 that it is in discussions with the United States to establish trilateral cooperation with Azerbaijan, deepening long-standing ties between Israel and Azerbaijan in security, energy, and diplomacy. This trilateral initiative positions Azerbaijan as a bridge between the Middle... MORE