Terminal Authority: Assessing the CCP’s Emerging Crisis of Political Succession
Executive Summary: Xi Jinping continues to dominate the Chinese Party-state system, based on an assessment of evidence from spring and summer 2025. Despite high-level purges, unusual military reshuffles, and persistent rumors of elite dissatisfaction, there is no visible indication that Xi’s personal authority has meaningfully... MORE
Russian Black Sea Fleet Intends to Establish Base in Abkhazia
Executive Summary: Badra Gunba, president of the breakaway Republic of Abkhazia, has reiterated the region’s intentions to establish a Russian naval base at the Port of Ochamchire on the eastern coast of the Black Sea. Moscow sees this move as essential due to successful Ukrainian... MORE
Russia-Azerbaijan Tensions Escalate to Unprecedented Level
Executive Summary: A Russian raid in Ekaterinburg targeting ethnic Azerbaijanis on June 27 resulted in deaths, injuries, and allegations of torture. This ignited a severe diplomatic crisis, with Baku accusing Moscow of ethnic violence and launching a criminal investigation. Russia-Azerbaijan relations have been deteriorating since... MORE
Divergent Implications for Xi’s Power From New Party Regulations
Executive Summary: Speculation is growing about a power struggle at the top of the Party. An announcement of new regulations for influential decision-making and coordinating bodies is a clear sign of change in how the leadership makes policy. Its implications for Xi Jinping’s power remain... MORE
Taiwan’s ‘Great Recall’ a Historic Bid to Overturn the Opposition’s Legislative Majority
Executive Summary: In a historic first for any democracy at the national level, mass recall campaigns in Taiwan are seeking to overturn the opposition’s legislative majority that was elected in 2024. The recall campaigns are the latest battleground in an ongoing power struggle between the... MORE
Beijing Learning Lessons From Russian Response to Financial War
Executive Summary: Beijing has tracked Russia’s response to what it perceives as financial warfare from the United States and its allies and has begun mitigating its vulnerabilities and building an offensive toolkit in response. Chinese experts take confidence from Moscow’s resilience in face of more... MORE
How to Negotiate with Moscow Based on Experience of a Ukrainian Diplomat
We are publishing this piece because Roman Bezsmertny is a Ukrainian diplomat who participated in nearly 60 rounds of talks with Russian representatives during the Minsk peace process. His experience and advice offer unique insight into Moscow’s negotiating tactics. This holds immediate implications for the... MORE
Inside Taiwan’s Opposition: How the KMT’s Future Could Shape Cross-Strait Stability
Executive Summary: The Kuomintang (KMT) is undergoing a complex transformation, seeking to redefine itself by moving away from its perception as a “pro-China” party to one grounded in support for the Republic of China’s (ROC) democratic institutions. Internal factions—ranging from pro-unification traditionalists to sovereignty-leaning localists—reflect... MORE
PLA Military Aerospace Force: On the Frontier of Innovation and Competition
Executive Summary: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Aerospace Force (ASF) is structured to rapidly integrate space-based surveillance, targeting, and offensive capabilities into any conflict involving the PLA, signaling Beijing’s strategic anticipation of conflicts over Taiwan or the South China Sea. By consolidating the People’s Republic... MORE
Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process Gains Momentum with Abu Dhabi Summit
Executive Summary: The July 10 summit between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Abu Dhabi marks a significant step in the ongoing peace process between the two countries. The summit reflects a broader shift in the South Caucasus, as Armenia and Azerbaijan strive for strategic autonomy rather... MORE