PRC Uses Legal Warfare to Support Maritime Blockade Against Taiwan
Executive Summary: Creative legal strategies have been deployed in recent years to support a justification for a blockade around Taiwan. International law contains the concept of a “long-distance blockade” and the “continuous voyage doctrine” that could both be invoked to restrict access to Taiwan by... MORE
PRC Dominance Over Global Port Infrastructure
Executive Summary: Beijing’s economic control of port operations at strategic chokepoints across the world, many of which are part of the Maritime Silk Road initiative, pose a threat to the United States and its allies. Two Chinese state-owned firms, COSCO and China Merchant Ports, control... MORE
PLA Factions and the Erosion of Xi’s Power Over the Military
Executive Summary: Two waves of recent purges in the People’s Liberation Army have focused on Xi Jinping’s two major bases of support, the Shaanxi Gang and the Fujian Clique, likely eroding his power over the military. A series of articles in the PLA Daily in... MORE
Armenia and Azerbaijan at Odds Over Peace Process
Editor's Note: This article reflects an Armenia analysis of the peace process with Azerbaijan. A similar article reflecting an Azerbaijan analysis of this issue is available here. Executive Summary: Amid the ongoing peace process, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan published an op-ed on Armenia’s perspective... MORE
Russia Experiences Reverse Industrialization as Economy Deteriorates
Executive Summary: The Russian economy appears to be experiencing “reverse industrialization,” shifting from the development of high-technology industries to labor-intensive sectors. This trend is negatively impacting Russia’s industrial output and economic development. Russia’s industrial growth is uneven, with the military-industrial complex showing the most growth... MORE
Triumphalism in Moscow About Setback in Peace-Making for Ukraine Could be Short-Lived
Executive Summary: Russian propagandists are capitalizing on the aftermath of the talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on February 28, highlighting the diplomatic discord. The Kremlin cautiously monitored U.S.-Ukraine negotiations, concerned about economic implications and potential Western unity. While Russian... MORE
U.S. Firms to Invest in Ukraine’s Rare Earth Elements in Return For Continued Aid
Executive Summary: Ukraine and the United States reached a landmark deal on rare earth elements (REEs), with Ukraine allocating proceeds from the future monetization of its mineral resources to fund domestic projects. Washington has emphasized securing REEs and critical minerals from Ukraine in exchange for... MORE
Moscow Seeks to Regain Initiative in the Game of Peace Talks
Executive Summary: Moscow sees its recent diplomatic engagement with the United States as a sign of progress, with Russian President Vladimir Putin aiming to regain the initiative in peace talks. Russia is anticipating that last week’s Munich Security Conference indicates possible rifts in trans-Atlantic relations... MORE
China Exploiting Russian Weakness in Arctic–and Moscow Has Reason to Worry
Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its activities in the Arctic since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Moscow needs PRC engagement in the Arctic as sanctions limit Russian activities, but fears the PRC will try to become the... MORE
New Armenia-U.S. Partnership On Pause
Executive Summary: The Charter of Strategic Partnership between Armenia and the United States, signed in January 2024 under the then-outgoing administration, aligns with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s strategy to reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia, despite Moscow’s concerns and diplomatic engagements following the signing. The charter... MORE