Latest Articles about West Africa

Brief: Abu Ubayda al-Anabi Possibly Dead with AQIM Weak

Executive Summary AQIM under Abu Ubayda al-Anabi has become largely symbolic, eclipsed by the far more active JNIM; his possible death in recent Malian airstrikes would have little operational impact. AQIM’s decline reflects an aging leadership and loss of relevance within the jihadist movement, signaling... MORE

Brief: JNIM Attacks in Benin and Niger Threatening Borders

Executive Summary JNIM is expanding both south and north, conducting new attacks in Benin and Niger nearing the borders of Algeria and Nigeria—showing ambitions to control a trans-Sahelian corridor that mirrors historical Islamic polities. The group is consolidating control in central Mali, potentially preparing for... MORE

Russian Military Presence in Mali Contributes to State Collapse

Executive Summary: The presence of Russian military personnel in Mali has failed to prevent the expansion of the jihadist insurgency into the once-safe central and western regions of the country. Fissures have erupted in Mali’s ruling military junta over issues related to operational cooperation with... MORE

Brief: Boko Haram Leader Allegedly Killed in Nigerien Airstrike

Executive Summary: Niger claimed to have killed Boko Haram leader Bakura Doro in an August 22 drone strike, though this has been denied by the jihadist group. Islamic State–West Africa Province’s comparative strength in the Lake Chad region means that the potential death of Boko... MORE

A Briefer on Islamic State’s Activities Throughout Africa

Executive Summary: In the first half of 2025, Islamic State’s five African provinces conducted 565 attacks across nine countries, with a sharp rise tied to the launch of its “Burning Camps” campaign targeting military bases and camps at night. Islamic State (IS) also appears to... MORE

Brief: ISWAP Raids in Northeastern Nigeria Upset Regional Status Quo

Executive Summary: ISWAP has launched an unprecedented wave of raids on Nigerian military supercamps, signaling a shift in momentum and a potential end to the long-standing stalemate in northeastern Nigeria. The group’s recent successes—especially the May 4 Buni Gari raid—highlight its growing operational capacity and... MORE