Executive Summary: Moscow is consolidating the Wagner Group’s operations in Libya under the direct control of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU) and relying on the African Corps under the purview of Russia’s deputy defense minister. Field Marshal... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian mercenary industry has transformed since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 with private military companies (PMCs) and other paramilitary formations taking on a more prominent role in Russia’s military operations. PMCs and other mercenary groups have become key players in... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia uses anti-colonial narratives to build influence in Africa, leveraging historical grievances with Western imperialism and spreading disinformation. Putin claims that Africa is one of “Russia’s crucial and trustworthy partners” to unite them in a relationship based on a mutual goal to fight... MORE

Executive Summary While Boko Haram is the most widely known security threat in Nigeria, the total number of deaths connected to violent banditry in northwestern Nigeria now rivals those caused by Boko Haram at its violent "peak" in 2015. Banditry is traditionally thought of as... MORE

Executive Summary Boko Haram and its ISWAP faction have been locked in a stalemate with the Nigerian military. The group may only seek to preserve the status quo rather than risk provoking a major army offensive. The stalemate has persisted since 2014. ISWAP briefly expanded... MORE

Executive Summary Mohammad Ibrahim Bazzi is a prominent Hezbollah financier who operated money laundering schemes across Europe, West Africa, and the Middle East. He was arrested in Romania in February 2023 and subsequently extradited to the United States. The arrest of Bazzi and several other... MORE

On December 4, Niger announced the “strengthening of military cooperation” with Russia, the latest in a series of shifts toward the Russian sphere of influence by post-coup Sahelian states on the basis of counter-terrorism (Africa News, December 4). The announcement came after a Russian delegation... MORE

In March, the new al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) leader, Abu Obeida Youssef al-Aanabi, affirmed that Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS) is “deviant,” emphasizing that AQIM was still at war with ISGS (France24.com, March 6). In August, there were emerging signs of a... MORE

On July 26, a military coup d’état ousted the President of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum, who was democratically elected in 2021. This resulted in the establishment of a military junta, or “Conseil national pour la sauvegarde de la patrie” (National Council for the Safeguarding of the... MORE

Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS) continues to demonstrate its ability to combat its al-Qaeda-affiliated nemesis, Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), expanding and carrying out large-scale attacks in ways that outmatch JNIM. On October 3, for example, ISGS killed 29 Nigeriens in... MORE