Executive Summary Paresh Baruah, the long-time leader of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), remains at large in Myanmar and along the China border, sustaining a weakened but still symbolically potent Assamese separatist movement through criminal networks and transnational alliances. Though ULFA-I’s operational capacity... MORE

Executive Summary: Menase Tabuni became chairman of United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP) in 2023, replacing Benny Wenda’s “government-in-waiting” of the Papuan independence movement with a new constitution and headquarters in Vanuatu, sparking a bitter leadership split. Wenda, backed by the West Papua People’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Jamaah Ansharusy Syariah (JAS), once an anti-Islamic State jihadist splinter group, has shifted its stance since late 2024 by recognizing Indonesia as an “Islamic state” and softening its rejection of democracy. This marks a significant ideological pivot toward actively cooperating with state institutions.... MORE

Executive Summary: Saw Chit Thu is a warlord active in Karen State in southeastern Myanmar. Thu’s Karen Border Guard Force controls a stretch of the Thai–Myanmar border. Once an ally of the ruling junta, Thu appears to have switched sides after witnessing the rebels’ military... MORE

Executive Summary: Hong Kong launched a new stablecoin regime on August 1, continuing its cautious embrace of emerging financial products nearly three years after declaring its intention to become a digital assets hub. In anticipation of the new regime, July saw a flurry of fundraising... MORE

Executive Summary: Philippine officials declared the island of Basilan free of Abu Sayyaf on June 10. Basilan was formerly one of the group’s strongholds and represents another example of the group’s near-complete degradation. With the war on Islamist radical groups in Southeast Asia largely won,... MORE

Executive Summary: Indonesia has enjoyed some success with deradicalizing high-level militants, including Umar Patek, a key bomb-maker involved with the deadly 2002 Bali bombings. This approach has involved the use of mentorship and entrepreneurial incentives to integrate former Islamists back into society. Indonesia’s program to... MORE

Executive Summary: The Arakan Army (AA), an ethno-nationalist rebel group active in Myanmar, has managed to seize some 90 percent of Rakhine State, with several major cities under siege and the entirety of the border with Bangladesh under their control. The group is receiving increasing... MORE

Executive Summary: On April 18, the infamous Rohingya militant leader Ataullah Abu Ammar Al Jununi was captured by Bangladeshi counterterrorist forces. Ataullah was formerly the head of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), a militia that played a key role in the 2017 Rohingya crisis... MORE

Executive Summary: An ultranationalist subset of Myanmar’s community of Buddhist monks have become active supporters of the military junta, offering the regime legitimacy and support in the ongoing civil war. This alliance reflects a broader pattern of authoritarian regimes weaponizing religious authorities to suppress dissent... MORE