Executive Summary: Poland announced on May 12 that it will close Russia’s consulate in Krakow after attributing the May 2024 Warsaw shopping center fire to Russian security services, as one of only seven North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries to shut down Russian consulates.  Moscow... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s shadow war against Poland combines low-level sabotage, insider espionage, informational warfare, and cyber‑attacks. Between 2010 and 2025, Polish authorities closed 30 subterfuge cases, leading to the arrests of 61 individuals—19 cases and 49 arrests since 2021—accounting for roughly 35 percent of Europe’s Russian-linked... MORE

Executive Summary: Poland is accelerating its military build-up for a projected war with Russia as Ukraine faces a potentially unfavorable outcome in the peace talks brokered by the Donald Trump administration. Warsaw plans to introduce voluntary military training for all adult males and bolster Poland’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Poland is navigating internationally to maintain the unity of the North Atlantic alliance while anticipating a European defense structure without the United States. U.S. officials have praised Poland as a model for NATO states to emulate in terms of defense spending and military... MORE

Executive Summary: During his re-election as Belarus’s President, Alyaksandr Lukashenka warned Poland that any attempt to annex western Ukraine would precipitate a conflict with Belarus and Russia. Lukashenka’s warnings are part of a broader obsession with Poland’s regional and European influence and support for the... MORE

Executive Summary: On January 1, Poland took over the presidency of the Council of the European Union, emphasizing the need to strengthen European security to deter Russian aggression. The Visegrád Four Group, a multi-national format to bolster Central European solidarity and security, has become redundant,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014 and, more recently, its equally illegal absorption of Ukraine’s Donbas oblast illustrates the lack of respect Moscow has for Ukraine as a separate state. Kremlin officials are openly talking about changing all Ukraine’s current borders,... MORE

Executive Summary: Poland announced plans to build fortifications on its border with Russia’s Kaliningrad oblast and Belarus, with construction of the “Eastern Shield” defensive line to be completed by 2028. Poland is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) top military spender by percent of its... MORE

Executive Summary: Western efforts to trigger the release of at least 1,559 political prisoners in Belarus, who are forced to endure inhumane conditions and extreme repressions, have flagged since 2020. Belarus’s economic needs in the current geopolitical environment are opening windows to pressure Minsk to... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian-cultivated circles overlap with People’s Republic of China (PRC) intelligence networks. These intersections include politicians on both extremes of Europe’s political spectrum, and across countries which include Belgium, Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic. “Daniel Woo,” a PRC state security officer, is a... MORE