Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka welcomed U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, General Keith Kellogg, to Minsk on June 21 in the highest-level meeting between U.S. and Belarusian officials since February 2020. The talks resulted in a goodwill gesture from Minsk with the release of... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine aimed to reassert dominance over the former Soviet space, but Ukraine’s resistance and sustained Western support have instead weakened Moscow’s influence in the region. Moscow’s war against Ukraine has led the former Soviet republics to pursue... MORE

Executive Summary: The relative absence of supreme leader Xi Jinping in authoritative media could indicate that his power, though still unassailable, is waning. There were no references to Xi or his eponymous ideology in coverage of crucial trade talks with the United States, the announcement... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka visited Chinese President Xi Jinping for a “family-like” meeting to reinforce bilateral ties between the two countries. The visit reflects Minsk’s strategy amid sustained Western sanctions to diversify from over-reliance on Russia without alienating Moscow. Belarus will eventually face... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus has announced a significant downsizing and relocation of the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises with Russia in an apparent effort to reduce tensions with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The reduced scale of the exercises brings them below international thresholds that require... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia is discreetly deploying new motorized rifle divisions and advanced artillery systems, including North Korean equipment, to regions near Latvia, forming a strategic reserve with little public visibility. Belarus is being transformed into an operational flank bastion through mobilization, infrastructure upgrades... MORE

Executive Summary: An overwhelming majority of Belarusians believe Minsk should first prioritize economic relations with Russia followed by relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), according to a national opinion poll on foreign policy priorities conducted in late 2024. Belarusian public opinion remains adaptable... MORE

Executive Summary: Since 2022, significant military construction has occurred in Asipovichy, Belarus, including new Iskander-M missile systems hangars, ammunition storage, and barracks at Military Unit 61732 (465th Missile Brigade). Satellite imagery confirms the near completion of facilities designed to support a new missile brigade with... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has secured another five-year presidential term and now seeks to secure the country’s regional and international interests, including a role in peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Lukashenka’s first visit, as per tradition, was to Russia, where he sought... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has proposed hosting peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and U.S. representatives to negotiate in a “calm” and “neutral” setting. Belarus has a history of hosting peace talks between Ukraine... MORE