Executive Summary: After fleeing Belarus in 2020, opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya received unprecedented support from Lithuania and Western partners, including head-of-state-level security and diplomatic privileges. In October, Lithuania downgraded Tsikhanouskaya’s security, citing reduced threats and financial concerns. Public backlash led Lithuania to temporarily reinstate Tsikhanouskaya’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, on August 19, met with Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Minsk following a string of previous high-level visits that expanded bilateral relations in commercial and military spheres. Tensions with the West have pushed Belarus and Iran to seek alignment... MORE

Executive Summary: The first phone call between U.S. President Trump and Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in August, followed by high-level meetings in Minsk, marked a surprising shift after 15 years of estrangement between the two countries.  The issue of political prisoners has become the central... MORE

Executive Summary: On September 10, Poland shot down at least 19 Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that had violated its airspace. Afterward, Poland invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) founding treaty. Belarus’s armed forces notified Poland and Lithuania about the incoming... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian officials insist that the joint strategic exercise Zapad-2025 of the Regional Troops Grouping (RTG) of Belarus and Russia poses no threat to neighboring states, has limited parameters, and is purely defensive in nature. The Belarusian authorities present the scaling back of strategic... MORE

Today, August 9, marks the fifth anniversary of Belarus’s 2020 presidential election. This election represented a critical juncture for Belarus, not just because of its preordained outcome—Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s fraudulent and corrupt victory—but rather because of the mass mobilization of Belarusian citizens and subsequent regime crackdown... MORE

Executive Summary:    In the five years since Belarus’s 2020 protest movement, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s authoritarian regime has become characterized by systematic, violent repression of dissent. The country, isolated from the West, became a military foothold for Russia and fell into political, economic, and informational... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka welcomed U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, General Keith Kellogg, to Minsk on June 21 in the highest-level meeting between U.S. and Belarusian officials since February 2020. The talks resulted in a goodwill gesture from Minsk with the release of... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine aimed to reassert dominance over the former Soviet space, but Ukraine’s resistance and sustained Western support have instead weakened Moscow’s influence in the region. Moscow’s war against Ukraine has led the former Soviet republics to pursue... MORE

Executive Summary: The relative absence of supreme leader Xi Jinping in authoritative media could indicate that his power, though still unassailable, is waning. There were no references to Xi or his eponymous ideology in coverage of crucial trade talks with the United States, the announcement... MORE