Executive Summary: The All-Russian Cossack Society continues to establish outposts in the occupied territories of Ukraine under Moscow’s direction.  The state-registered Cossack movement is working to deepen the control of loyal structures in the occupied regions and take advantage of existing social beliefs, particularly through... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian mobilization will be necessary to repel a possible Russian offensive in the coming summer, but a draft mobilization law is currently being held up in Ukraine’s parliament. Such uncertainty has a negative impact on Ukrainian society, opening the way to various manipulations... MORE

Executive Summary: Gagauzia, a small Christian Turkic and pro-Russian autonomous region, says it will exercise its right to secede and form an independent state if Moldova becomes a part of Romania. Chisinau’s pursuit of EU membership and its increasing pressure on Gagauzia, Moscow’s desire to... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow looks to the Volga region—an ethnically non-Russian region and one of the poorest in Russia—for “volunteers” to fight in the war against Ukraine.  Many of these “volunteer” battalions have experienced heavy losses along the frontlines, which the Russian government attempts to cover... MORE

Executive Summary As NATO takes steps to increase its solidarity, Russian propagandists have responded by exaggerating Western disunity. Kremlin propaganda portrays NATO’s strengthening European pillar as evidence of weakening US leadership. A more concerted focus on Western disunity has become a way for Russia to... MORE

Executive Summary The Mongolian and British governments are engaged in talks on opening an “air bridge” to increase exports of Ulaanbaatar’s rare-earth elements (REEs) to the West. Mongolia possesses vast deposits of REES that play a critical role in the development and production of modern... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is expanding the number of “volunteer battalions” from non-ethnically Russian regions, especially Bashkortostan. Most battalions are named after Soviet or post-Soviet heroes—likely to prevent inflaming local patriotic (nationalist), anti-Russian, or anti-colonial sentiments in Bashkortostan. Moscow, in legitimizing these formations, is trying to... MORE

Executive Summary: Tensions between Russia and the West in the Arctic have risen dramatically, as Moscow condemns both Washington’s claims on the Arctic and increased US military activity. The Kremlin is considering denouncing the 1990 Baker-Shevardnadze agreement and insisting on its own right to make... MORE

Executive Summary: The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has attempted to increase its influence by creating a permanent free-trade zone with Iran, entering talks with India on a free-trade agreement, and encouraging Uzbekistan to become a member. The EAEU has served as a way for Moscow... MORE

Executive Summary: The Belarusian economy experienced 3.9-percent growth in 2023, a positive outcome compared to the 4.7-percent decline in 2022. Minsk is expanding its trade partners, and Belarusian officials have developed numerous connections with their international counterparts in the Global South and elsewhere over the... MORE