In a Fortnight

Kursk Incursion Draws Delayed Response From Beijing

Executive Summary: Official media in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has finally begun to comment on the Ukrainian operation in Russia’s Kursk oblast, which began on August 6. It gives Ukraine low odds of success, emphasizes Russia’s strength and successes elsewhere in the conflict,... MORE

Wolf Worriers: Repeated Cries for Reform Fail to Convince at Third Plenum

Executive Summary: The Resolution from the Third Plenum focused primarily on economic reform but reinforced the Party’s existing strategy rather than announcing a change in overall direction. The Resolution does nothing to mitigate concerns about the real estate sector, weak domestic demand, subsidized export-oriented manufacturing,... MORE

PRC Advances New International Order In Astana

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) sees the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an important part of a wider strategy to construct a new international order. Beijing projects soft power through promoting norms, discursive constructs, and policy preferences in the SCO which member states... MORE

Taiwan’s Reform Bills Indicate Volatility

Executive Summary: Taiwan’s Executive Yuan has returned inflammatory legislation to the Legislative Yuan over concerns that it violates democratic principles, procedural justice, and the country’s constitution. The legislation is also likely to face judicial challenges. Contentious provisions could force testimony by military officials and others... MORE

Shifting Discourse Between Xi and Putin On Ukraine

Executive Summary: Across 12 communiques, meeting readouts, and official phone calls between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin since February 2022, the salience of language on Ukraine has reduced, but the substance has hardened. The latest communique includes a statement that “the root causes must be... MORE

Foreign Fixations at the Heart of Chinese-style Modernization

Executive Summary: A new report from two high-end PRC think-tanks details the country’s path to modernization in anticipation of July’s Third Plenum but suggests that any shifts in policy direction will be muted. The report emphasizes the triumph of Chinese-style modernization over the Western model... MORE

Learning From National Security Education Day

Executive Summary: The Comprehensive National Security Concept has expanded over the last decade to cover areas the People’s Republic of China (PRC) perceives to be its territory, which now includes the deep sea, space, and digital networks. Xi Jinping has pushed the totalizing conception of... MORE

PRC Support Underpins Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Executive Summary: PRC aid to Russia is multidomain and underpins much of Moscow’s ability to continue to wage war in Ukraine. Attempts have been made to institutionalize the Sino-Russian relationship, deepening the military aspect in particular. The relationship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin nevertheless... MORE

When The Chips Are Down: Taiwan’s Water and Energy Conundrum

Executive Summary: Taiwan’s heavy reliance on energy imports, coupled with high energy demands, poses significant challenges, with semiconductor manufacturing being a major consumer. Environmental concerns such as droughts, exacerbated by climate change, and Taiwan’s fossil fuel-heavy energy mix raise serious alarm bells for the island’s... MORE