Executive Summary Western Sahara remains an unresolved decolonization conflict, with Morocco controlling most of the territory since 1975 and the UN continuing to list it as a “non-self-governing” region. Brahim Ghali’s leadership of the Algeria-backed Polisario Front has been marked by authoritarianism, corruption, and repression,... MORE

Executive Summary AQIM under Abu Ubayda al-Anabi has become largely symbolic, eclipsed by the far more active JNIM; his possible death in recent Malian airstrikes would have little operational impact. AQIM’s decline reflects an aging leadership and loss of relevance within the jihadist movement, signaling... MORE

Executive Summary: Mahmoud Abdulrazzaq Hamza’s ascent from civilian to major general reflects Libya’s militia-centered state. He built the 444th Brigade into Tripoli’s most disciplined force, making himself indispensable to the GNU. Hamza is both the enforcer of Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and a potential rival. Dbeibah’s enforcer... MORE

Executive Summary: Founded in 1973, the Polisario Front remains a UN-recognized secular liberation movement seeking independence from Moroccan rule. U.S. legislators are considering labeling the Sahrawi independence movement a terrorist group, fueled by allegations of ties to Iran, Hezbollah, and global jihadist networks, despite a... MORE

Executive Summary: The One Belt One Road initiative is evolving, with Chinese enterprises beginning to localize. In Algeria, this has led to increased exposure to the corruption and mismanagement that continue to plague the country’s economy. This is leading to tensions with Beijing’s pragmatic commitment... MORE

Executive Summary:   Russia’s rehabilitation of an abandoned airbase in the Libyan desert offers an opportunity to create a reliable line of supply to Russian forces operating in West Africa.  A Russian military presence close to the borders of Egypt, Sudan, and Chad could make... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is seeking to augment the ranks of its Africa Corps by recruiting militants from African separatist groups. More broadly, it appears that countries are increasingly turning to private military organizations to secure their interests in Africa. Other countries are also following Russia's... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s advances in Africa are moving to a new political-strategic level by establishing further military and economic ties across the continent. Moscow has long worked to gain influence across the Sahel and is now aiming to establish footholds throughout Sub-Saharan Africa and the... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is consolidating the Wagner Group’s operations in Libya under the direct control of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU) and relying on the African Corps under the purview of Russia’s deputy defense minister. Field Marshal... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian mercenary industry has transformed since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 with private military companies (PMCs) and other paramilitary formations taking on a more prominent role in Russia’s military operations. PMCs and other mercenary groups have become key players in... MORE