Dario Cristiani

Dario Cristiani is a Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS) in Washington D.C., working on Italian foreign policy, Mediterranean Security, Terrorism, and Global Politics in close connection with Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome. He is also a political risk consultant working with businesses operating in Mediterranean markets and teaches as a guest lecturer in several institutions in Europe and North Africa (Koninklijke Militaire School, Istituto Alti Studi Difesa, SIT Tunis). He was a Visiting Researcher at the International Centre for Policing and Security at the University of South Wales in Pontypridd (UK) (2018/2020) and the director of the Executive Training in Global Risk Analysis and Crisis Management, (GRACM) and adjunct professor in International Affairs and Conflict Studies at Vesalius College (VUB) in Brussels (2014/2018). He received his Ph.D. in Middle East & Mediterranean Studies from King’s College London in 2015. The views expressed in his articles are his own and do not necessarily represent those of the German Marshall Fund.

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Articles by Dario Cristiani

Libya’s Persistent Political Polarization Amid Islamic State’s bid to Remain Relevant

Introduction Following the October 2020 ceasefire and successful United Nations-brokered Libyan Political Dialogue Forum Process (LPDF), Libya finally saw the formation of a new, unified government, which ended almost six

A Weak AQIM and a Paralyzed Hirak: Algeria’s Moment of Stability

The third anniversary of the birth of the Hirak Movement in Algeria occurred on February 22, 2022. Three years earlier, in early February 2019, the then Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika

The Killing of Ba Ag Moussa: France, Mali and the issue of Negotiating with Jihadists

On November 13, the French Defense Minister Florence Parly officially announced the killing of Ba Ag Moussa, who she defined as the "military leader of the Group for Supporters of

Who’s Who in the GNA Military Leadership in Libya

The military offensive launched by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar in April 2019 to conquer western Libya has failed (see TM, April 5, 2019). For months, Haftar and his forces enjoyed

The Paradox of Russia’s Disinformation Activities in Italy

As the novel coronavirus crisis unfolded in Italy, several countries came to the rescue, and among them, Russia played a crucial role (see EDM, April 8). Italian authorities acknowledged and

Beyond Haftar: A Profile of Aguila Saleh Issa al-Obeidi, Speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives

Introduction Analyzing Aguila Saleh Issa al-Obeidi’s life and career, the peculiarity of his profile compared to that of the many current protagonists of Libyan politics is striking. He is by

Russian Motives Behind Helping Italy’s Coronavirus Response: A Multifaceted Approach

In the wake of the novel coronavirus outbreak in Italy, the country has become the target of a number of foreign diplomatic and public relations operations. Following a phone call,

Geopolitics and the Greater Maghreb Security Complex in a Time of Financial Distress

Introduction The first months of 2020 witnessed significant diplomatic activity between the Gulf and the Maghreb. However, the emerging global economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will likely affect

The GNA’s Latest Defection: A Profile of the Tripoli Militiaman-Turned-Diplomat Mohamed Shaeban ‘al-Mirdas’

In January, Muhammed Shaeban, ‘al-Mirdas,’ resigned as the Libyan deputy ambassador and consul general in Tunis. Allegedly, he was about to be fired and decided to step down on his

The Chinese Charm Offensive Towards Italy as the Coronavirus Crisis Deepens

Introduction One year ago, Italy was hitting the headlines as Rome became the first G7 country to formally sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with China to join the Belt

Italy-Ukraine Relations: Signs of Improvement, but No Breakthrough

On February 7, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to Italy for a two-day official visit, the first since his election last April. Zelenskyy met the president of Italy, Sergio Mattarella,

A Piece of a Greater Puzzle: The Libyan Civil War, External Influences and Regional Trends

Over the past few months, diplomatic activism around the Libyan civil war has intensified sharply. Two dynamics drove this process. First, the visible presence of Russian mercenaries fighting alongside the

Exploiting the Vacuums: Russia and North Africa in the Wake of the Sochi Summit

The Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum, held on October 23–24, in the Russian resort city of Sochi, displayed Moscow’s renewed ambition to play a significant role in Africa (TASS, October

A Profile of Abdul Ghani ‘Ghneiwa’ Al-Kikli—The Leader of Tripoli’s Abu Salim Central Security Force

Almost six months into the conflict initiated in April by Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) against the UN-backed Government of the National Accord (GNA) to win control of Tripoli,

Remain, Expand, Attract: The Paradigmatic Experience of the Islamic State in Libya

Introduction On April 4, the Libyan National Army (LNA), which supports the House of Representative government in Tobruk, started its western Libya military offensive to "cleanse" the area and eliminate

“An Average Young Tunisian”: A Profile of Aymen al-Samiri, Mastermind of the June 27 Tunis Double-Attack

Introduction From June 27 to July 3, Tunisia saw a series of chaotic events, as the country’s capital was struck by two nearly simultaneous suicide bombings, followed by a massive

Residual, Not Irrelevant: AQIM’s Lingering Threat to the Maghreb

Introduction After the establishment of Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (The Group for Support of Islam and Muslims—JNIM) in March 2017, the geographic shift characterizing al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb’s

Libya’s Rising Star: A Profile of Misratan Leader Fathi Bashagha

Since the outbreak of the Libyan revolution in 2011, the city of Misrata has assumed a central role in shaping the country’s revolutionary and post-revolutionary dynamics. Home to some of

Italy Joins the Belt and Road Initiative: Context, Interests, and Drivers

Introduction In March 2019, Italy and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) signed a broad and comprehensive, albeit not legally binding, Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for Italy to join the

The Shifting Strategic Context in Libya and the ‘Haftar Dilemma’

Introduction On January 13, the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by General Khalifa Haftar, made its way through southern Libya, entering Sabha and consolidating its position in the Fezzan region.

Mauritania’s Security Risks and the Impact of the Arrest of Cheick Ibrahim Ould Hamoud

Introduction While Algeria is going through a period of instability, another country in the Maghreb-Sahel region is also experiencing a power transition—Mauritania (see Hot Issue, March 16). This transitional process

Hot Issue – Algeria’s Future and The Return of the Civilian Hidjâb to Algerian Politics

Executive Summary On February 10, Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika made a decision to run for a fifth mandate. This decision triggered nationwide protests, showing how the regime might have been

The Broader Regional Meaning of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s Maghreb Tour

At the end of January 2019, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov traveled to the Maghreb, visiting Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. According to Lavrov’s spokesperson, the trip was conceived to discuss

Libyan Militia Leader Salah Badi—The Self-Proclaimed George Washington of Libya

Introduction In November 2018, Salah Badi hit the international headlines when the UN Sanction Committee imposed a number of sanctions on him (UN, November 16, 2018, US Department of

A Tumultuous, Informal Polyarchy: Algeria Between Clans, Old Threats and a Boiling Youth

Introduction As Algeria enters a crucial year for its future, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s health remains extremely poor and, despite the ambitions of many in Algeria, it is unclear whether the

Pragmatism, Business, Flexibility: A Profile of Tripoli Revolutionaries Brigade Leader Haithem al-Tajouri

Introduction In recent years, the role of Libya’s local militias—which emerged immediately after the eruption of the revolution in 2011—grew exponentially. Created in many cases as revolutionary or neighborhood defense

The Islamic State in Libya: Operational Revival, Geographic Dispersal, and Changing Paradigms

Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General and Head of Mission of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Ghassan Salamé, addressed the UN Security Council in September concerning the outbreak

Al-Tajouri, Al-Kani, Badi and Trabelsi: The Militia Leaders Fighting for Tripoli

On September 25, the Tripoli Security Directorate announced the end of fighting in the Libyan capital Tripoli (Libya Observer, Sept 26, 2018). This declaration comes after almost a month of

Syria: HTS Commander al-Jawlani Appeals to Militants on eve of Idlib Offensive

At the end of July 2018, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad announced his intention to regain control of Idlib. Speaking to the Russian media, al-Assad said that after “we have liberated

Abou Obeida Youssef al-Annabi: The Ideological Leader of AQIM

Abou Obeida Youssef al-Annabi, born on February 7, 1969, is the nom de guerre of Yazid Mebrak (Interpol, Feb 29, 2016). Al-Annabi is originally from Annaba, in the northeastern corner

Salvini Works to Strengthen Italian-Russian Ties, but Within Certain Limits

Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, who also holds the position of Italy’s minister of the interior, met with his Russian counterpart, Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev, and two members of

Italy Eyes Central Europe to Promote Sovereigntism Inside EU

For Italy’s new and unusual ruling coalition composed of the 5 Stars Movement (5SM) and the League (previously, the Northern League), foreign policy issues remained conspicuously marginal in the two

Leadership Decapitation Unlikely to Undermine AQIM in the Long Run

On January 20, Tunisian security forces killed Bilel al-Kobi, an Algerian terrorist affiliated with the Tunisian offshoot of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Oqba bin Nafaa (OBN). Al-Kobi was

Jamestown Analyst Dario Cristiani Interviewed by ANSA Med

On January 23, Jamestown Analyst Dario Cristiani was interviewed by Italian news agency ANSA Med on the Italian military mission to Niger. To read the full interview, please click here

Libya: Militants Assassinate Mayor of Misrata

On December 17, 2017, Mohamed Eshtewi, the mayor of Misrata, was kidnapped and killed on his way home from the Misrata airport after returning from an official trip to Istanbul.

Belmokhtar Condemned to Death in Absentia as Northern African Jihad Regains Momentum

Mokhtar Belmokhtar, one of the historical key leaders of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and the broader Northern African jihadism, has been sentenced to death in absentia by the

How Long Will Italy Weather Europe’s Rising Terror Threat?

In recent months, Islamic State (IS) has made a number of public threats against Italy, with a number of its fighters expressing their willingness, via their Telegram channels, to target

Islamic State Reorganizes in Libya

In August 2017, months after the group was pushed out of its former Libyan stronghold of Sirte, the Islamic State (IS) made a comeback in Libya. Reorganizing in a number

Beyond al-Baghdadi? A Profile of Mohamed Ben Salem al-Ayouni

On July 11, just days after the Iraqi army recaptured the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that it had confirmed information regarding the

Libya: Gulf Crisis Sparks Posturing Among Militant Leadership

On June 5, a number of the Gulf States — Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain — announced that they were severing diplomatic ties with Qatar

Italy and Russia: Between Economic Cooperation and Mediterranean Problems

Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in Sochi, on May 17, a few days before the G7 summit, which was organized by Italy and held

Jihadist Leader Killed in Hassi El-Ferid Reminds of Growing Tensions in Tunisia

In a statement issued on May 29, the Tunisian Ministry of the Interior announced that the Special Unit of the National Guard (USGN), in cooperation with the Laouina National Crime

Ten Years of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb: Evolution and Prospects

In the past few months, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) hit the headlines again as it carried out a massive attack in Gao, northern Mali, killing 77 people and

Mustafa al-Sharkasi: the Misratan Leader of the Benghazi Defense Brigades

Introduction In the past few months, the conflict over the control of oil resources in Libya has deepened further, particularly after the takeover of the largest oil terminals of the

Saharan Jihadist Leaders Establish New Alliance

As the Islamic State loses ground in Iraq and Syria and its regional offshoots also weaken, al-Qaeda’s affiliates are regaining momentum. In Syria, the al-Qaeda affiliate group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

A Threat From Prison? A Look at AQIM Mauritanian Operative Saleck Ould Cheikh Mohamedou

On December 21, 2016, the U.S. State Department identified the al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) operative Saleck Ould Cheikh Mohamedou as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) under Executive

[Hot Issue] Fears of a New Arab Spring: The Algerian Riots in Context

On January 14, Tunisians marked the sixth anniversary of their successful revolution against the regime of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Known as the “Jasmine Revolution,” it inspired other people

Algeria’s Role in Libya: Seeking Influence Without Interference

Faced with a range of potential threats, Algeria is one of the countries most concerned with developments in Libya. Close adherence to a doctrine of non-interference has limited Algeria’s role

Libya’s Economic Crisis: Bringing the Oil Sector Back on Track

Getting Libya’s economy back on track is fundamental to the country’s future. With the Government of National Accord (GNA) finally working from inside Libya and Fajez Sarraj in place as

AQIM’s Resurgence: Responding to Islamic State

AQIM’s Resurgence: Responding to Islamic State Jacob Zenn and Dario Cristiani Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its allied militant groups have undergone something of an operational revival since

A Post-Mortem Analysis of Wisam al-Zubaidi: The Leader of the Islamic State in Libya

In November 2015, sources in the Pentagon suggested that the United States killed the leader of the Islamic State in Libya, Wisam al-Zubaidi (a.k.a. Abu Nabil al-Anbari). According to American

Getting the Balance Right: Italy and the Ukrainian Crisis

On March 4–5, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi visited Kyiv and Moscow during a diplomatic trip aimed at enhancing Italy’s role as meditator in the Ukraine conflict. Renzi paid a

Tunisia’s Most Wanted: A Profile of Lokman Abu Sakhr

After the successful revolution of 2011 that overthrew long-standing dictator Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia has gone through a complex transition period, whose end is still far from over. In

Another look at General Khalifa Haftar: His Enemies and Allies in the Struggle for Libya

Over the past few months, General Khalifa Haftar has been one of the most important figures in the Libyan political landscape. He has recently launched a “bid” of sorts to

Algeria and Egypt Struggle with the Implications of Libya’s Political Chaos

The progressive deterioration of security within Libya represents a major concern for a number of regional actors, most notably Libya’s two powerful neighbors, Egypt and Algeria. Algeria has already directly

Algeria’s Political Transition Begins in the Midst of Major Security Challenges

Algerian president Abdelaziz Bouteflika won his fourth term in office on April 17, when he took over 81 percent of the vote in presidential elections. Former prime minister Ali Benflis

The Libyan Oil Crisis: Social Fragmentation in an Unstable State

In early March, the North-Korean flagged tanker MT Morning Glory reached the eastern port of Es-Sider, one of the three oil ports seized by Ibrahim al-Jadhran’s Cyrenaica Defense Forces. [1]

An In-Depth Look at Libya’s Controversial Militia Leader Ibrahim al-Jadhran

One of the greatest challenges faced by the fledging Libyan state is the seven-month long oil blockade affecting three oil terminals—Ras Lanuf, Es Sider and Zuetina—in eastern Libya that collectively

Dario Cristiani quoted by the World Tribune

Dario Cristiani was quoted by the World Tribune in an article about a campaign that AQIM has launched against Moroccan King Mohammed.

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb Attacks Morocco’s “Kingdom of Corruption and Despotism”

Al-Andalus, the media branch of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), released a rather sophisticated and detailed video on Morocco titled “Le royaume de la corruption et du despotisme" (The

The “Scandinavian Fighter” in al-Shabaab: Fu’ad Muhammad Khalaf

Somali-Swedish militant Fu’ad Muhammad Khalaf (a.k.a. Shongole, the “Scandinavian fighter”) is one of the leaders of al-Shabaab. Apart from being a key figure of the movement, Khalaf is known for

Al-Murabitun: North Africa’s Jihadists Reach into History in Their Battle against European “Crusaders”

At the end of August, the Katibat al-Muslimeen (Veiled Brigade) of Mokhtar Belmokhtar, announced a merger with the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA) to create a

Taking the Reigns of AQIM: A Profile of Jamal Oukacha

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) confirmed the death in mid-June of one of its most senior leaders Abd al-Hamid Abu Zeid. Abu Zeid was a key commander on AQIM’s

Directions in North African Jihadism in the Post-Mali Conflict Environment

Operation Serval, the French-led military intervention in Northern Mali brought major changes to the strategic landscape and geopolitical trends in the region, curbing, or at least slowing, the increasing presence

Algiers Reshapes Its Foreign Policy Following the In Amenas Attack

In a rather surprising shift from its historical position of non-interference in the domestic affairs of other countries and its earlier statement that it would not support any external military

Elections Issue: Militants in Libyan Politics: A Militant Leadership Monitor Special Report

In this Special Report on the Libya Elections we examine the entrance of militant leaders into the political scene as the country recovers from several decades of Gaddafi's rule. This

Kazakhstan as Italian Second Pillar in the Post-Soviet Space?

In March 2012, the new Italian technocratic Prime Minister Mario Monti went to Kazakhstan as part of his first diplomatic trip to Asia since assuming the prime ministerial office in

Elections Issue: Militants in Libyan Politics: A Militant Leadership Monitor Special Report

By: Dario Cristiani, Michael W. S. Ryan, Camille Tawil, Jacob Zenn In this Special Report on the Libya Elections we examine the entrance of militant leaders into the political scene as the country recovers

West Africa’s MOJWA Militants – Competition for al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb?

With a deadly suicide attack on a security facility in southern Algeria, a newly formed group of West African militants has demonstrated it is a serious security threat and a

Hot Issue — The Zintan Militia and the Fragmented Libyan State

Executive Summary: In an effort to oust Qaddafi, independent militias of varying strength have been formed inside Libya and are threatening regional security inside the country. Of these the Zintan

Amir of the Southern Sahara: A Fresh Look at AQIM’s Mokhtar Belmokhtar

Personal Profile Born in the medieval city of Ghardaïa in central Algeria, nearly 372 miles due south of Algiers, on June 1, 1972, Mokhtar Belmokhtar is known by different names

Al-Qaeda and Algiers Struggle to Cope with the Implications of the Arab Spring

Al-Qaeda’s media arm released a video from Dr. Ayman al-Zawhiri in October that focused mainly on American “defeats,” but also offered the al-Qaeda leader’s views on Algeria. Al-Zawahiri called upon

For Profit Jihad: An In-Depth Profile of AQIM’s Abou Zeid

One of the key figures in al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), al-Qaeda’s North African franchise, is Abou Zeid. Though there is no agreement on his precise given name, it

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb’s Operational Revival in Northern Algeria

In the past few months, there has been a rather remarkable operational return of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in Algeria. On July 16, a double suicide attack

A New, Greater Impulse In Italian-Kazakh Relations

Kazakhstan and Italy are developing a major strategic partnership that is rapidly altering ties between the two countries. For Italy, one of the main and constant aims of Italian foreign

Franco-Algerian Security Rapprochement is Threatened by Divergent Views on Libya

A series of recent meetings in Algiers have been devoted to creating a “special partnership” between France and its former colony of Algeria, based on ties unifying the countries in

Algeria’s Response to the Revolt in Libya

African support for military intervention in Libya against Colonel Qaddafi has been far cooler than that displayed by the United States and Europe (see Terrorism Monitor, April 14). Among the

Missiles, Money and Migration: The Impact of the Libyan Crisis on the African Sahel

Unlike many other parts of the world, Libyan leader Mu’ammar Qaddafi enjoys widespread support in Africa as a result of years of Libyan diplomatic and economic engagement in the continent.

Hostage Killings Raise Tension between France and Niger

Two French citizens, Antoine de Léocour and Vincent Delory, were kidnapped on January 7 from a restaurant in the residential area of Plateu in Niger's capital, Niamey (L’Express, January 9).

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and the Africa-to-Europe Narco-Trafficking Connection

Of the various Salafi-Jihadi militant groups currently operating, few have been as aggressive in their pursuit of financing as al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which has added narcotics trafficking

Algeria’s AQIM Becomes a Regional Threat Despite Surrender of Senior Leaders

The Algerian-based al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) organization is facing new challenges to its leadership and its mission as a result of Algerian counterterrorist measures. The loss of a

AQIM Funds Terrorist Operations with Thriving Sahel-Based Kidnapping Industry

Three Spanish aid workers of the Catalan NGO Barcelona Acció Solidària, Albert Vilalta, Alicia Gámez and Roque Pascual, were kidnapped somewhere between Nouadibou and Nouakchott in Mauritania on November 29

A Shift in Terrorist Strategy Threatens Italian National Security

The Italian Home Minister, Roberto Maroni, recently stated: “We believe that terrorist cells fundraise and train to carry out attacks in our country. It is not yet a homegrown terrorist