Executive Summary: Moscow is attempting to signal its leadership of Arctic affairs with the sixth meeting of the International Arctic Forum (IAF) on March 26–27.  As Russia continues its war against Ukraine, the planned IAF program reflects Moscow’s isolation from most international Arctic partnerships, while... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has declared that Oslo strengthening its defenses on Svalbard is a violation of the Svalbard Treaty, implying that Russia views itself as a defender of that treaty and could take military action to defend it.  Nikolai Patrushev, a hardline Kremlin aide close... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the wide-ranging Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership on January 17 to boost bilateral relations for further progress in areas including opposition to NATO expansion, the North-South Corridor, and the 3+3 format. Moscow and... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has secured another five-year presidential term and now seeks to secure the country’s regional and international interests, including a role in peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Lukashenka’s first visit, as per tradition, was to Russia, where he sought... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has proposed hosting peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and U.S. representatives to negotiate in a “calm” and “neutral” setting. Belarus has a history of hosting peace talks between Ukraine... MORE

Executive Summary: The Caspian Sea’s declining water levels are reducing the amount of cargo that ships can carry, undermining Russia and the People’s Republic of China’s capability to use the sea for their north-south and east-west trade networks. Both Russia and the People’s Republic of... MORE

Executive summary: Georgia is under increasing pressure from Russia to join the 3+3 format on regional cooperation for peace and stability in the South Caucasus, which includes Russia, Iran, and Türkiye along with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and, intentionally, Georgia.  The Kremlin views Georgia’s participation as crucial... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has instructed Russian propagandists, including state officials and media, to offer “restrained” praise for the new U.S. administration. In practice, they manage to follow this directive only when discussing U.S.-Russia relations. Some propagandists gloat and claim that the U.S. administration’s domestic policies... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin announced its decision in December 2024 to deploy the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM) to Belarus. Minsk, however, does not have complete information about the deployment parameters. One missile regiment of Russian Strategic Missile Forces equipped with 8 to 12 Oreshnik... MORE

Executive Summary: Iran and Russia signed a new comprehensive strategic agreement on January 17, serving as a comprehensive framework to build closer ties and cooperate in what the two states refer to as a just and multipolar world order. The treaty highlights expanding trade routes,... MORE