Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka attended the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Moscow, highlighting the continued significance of the organization for Belarusian foreign policy. For Minsk, the CIS is  increasingly attractive, as the logistical semi-blockade on Belarus’s western border has prevented it... MORE

Executive Summary: The pro-Kremlin Valdai Discussion Club conference on Sino-Russian relations on October 14–15 demonstrated Moscow’s goals of building a new world order together with the so-called “world majority” as a result of Russia’s declining status on the world stage. Even analysts close to the... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine has intensified its behind-the-scenes multilateral political maneuvering, as evidenced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s promotion of his own victory plan, despite little change on the battlefield. Zelenskyy’s proposal emphasizes that only a bold stride toward victory can make his plan feasible, but... MORE

Executive Summary: Trade between Russia and Türkiye has dropped significantly in 2024 due to Western sanctions, indicating a weakening economic partnership as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to isolate it from global partners. Ankara is increasingly aligning with Western powers, as evidenced by the postponement... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has unveiled his Victory Plan to stave off incremental defeat under Russian assault. The plan calls for offsetting the war’s imbalance with a surge of Western military assistance. Some major parts of the plan are in classified annexes to... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is now increasing the age limit for military service to fill the depleted ranks of its forces in Ukraine. This is a reflection of the manpower difficulties Russia faces in its long war. Visitors to the front, officials involved in meeting the... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan announced its application for BRICS membership on August 20, which has been backed by Russian leaders and emphasizes Azerbaijan’s goal of strengthening ties with China following the China-Azerbaijan joint strategic partnership declaration in July. The increased importance of the South Caucasus region... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian officials have begun to address the degrading state of critical civilian infrastructure, particularly heating systems, ahead of the coming winter. The past few years have seen catastrophic incidents leaving many Russians without heat. Russian officials blame numerous sources for these issues—including Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s war against Ukraine has turned into the first major full-scale drone war, and Ukraine is dominating this aspect of the conflict through its innovation and leadership in drone production. Moscow is lagging behind in the drone war, relying on outdated Iranian drones... MORE

Executive Summary: This year’s Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors, underscoring the importance of preserving the international norm against the first use of nuclear weapons amid Russia’s increasing nuclear brinkmanship. Putin has placed himself into an awkward position where his frequent... MORE