Ksenia Kirillova

Ksenia Kirillova is an investigative journalist and analyst focused on analyzing Russian society and mechanisms of action of Russian propaganda (including in the US) along with Russian “soft power,” “active measures” and foreign policy.

Ms. Kirillova is the author of several hundred articles, including research on Russian propaganda and soft power for the Atlantic Council, the British Institute for Statecraft (The Integrity Initiative project), Homeland Security Today (US), EU Today, the British-Canadian security project Defense Report, Ukrainian English-language media Kyiv Post and Euromaidan Press, Stop Fake project, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), and others.

While living in Russia, she worked as a journalist for the largest Ural media holding Ural Worker (2008-2010) and the Ural branch of Novaya Gazeta (2011-2013).

Contact Ksenia Kirillova

Articles by Ksenia Kirillova

Kremlin Increases Anti-Poland Propaganda

Executive Summary: Russia is intensifying its hybrid warfare against Poland through cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation, while portraying Polish defensive actions as provocations to fuel domestic narratives and justify ongoing hostility.

Russian Sanction Evasion Drives Development of Alternative International Economic System

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is developing and spreading sanction evasion tactics to create an alternative international economic system populated by rogue states. Russia’s burgeoning international economic order is characterized by

Anti-Western Rhetoric Intensifying in Russian Media

Executive Summary: The Kremlin seeks to restore normal relations with the West as a bargaining chip for negotiations on Russia’s war against Ukraine, despite intensifying anti-European rhetoric in Russian media.

Moscow Responds to Washington’s Unilateral Concessions

Executive Summary: Moscow has instructed Russian propagandists, including state officials and media, to offer “restrained” praise for the new U.S. administration. In practice, they manage to follow this directive only

Moscow Seeks to Capitalize on Weakening Western Unity

Executive Summary: The Kremlin remains committed to its policy of confrontation with the West through weakening alliances and financial influence, despite Russia’s ongoing preparations for the potential end of its

Russian IT Sector Effectively Serves the Kremlin Despite Sanctions

Executive Summary: Moscow continues to leverage modern technology in its hybrid warfare against the West and in carrying out cyber-attacks despite sanctions. The Kremlin employs cutting-edge technologies to create an

Kremlin Could be Preparing to Pause Its Invasion of Ukraine

Executive Summary Sources close to the Kremlin have indicated that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the so-called “special military operation,” is nearing its inevitable end as resources for further offensive

Russia Promotes Stronger Negotiating Position Than Reality

Executive Summary: Pro-Kremlin analysts look upon possible negotiations with the United States about the fate of Ukraine only from a position of strength. Moscow’s demands, however, clearly do not correspond

Russian Business Scheme to Circumvent Tariffs and Fund War

Executive Summary: Moscow introduced a new accounting scheme enabling European buyers to pay for gas in rubles, circumventing U.S. sanctions and using intermediaries and currency exchanges to bypass restrictions. Russia

Russia Faces Increasing Troubles Financing its War Against Ukraine

Executive Summary: Russia faces a severe economic crisis, with inflation rates significantly exceeding official figures. Efforts to combat inflation through high interest rates have slowed economic growth and investment, leading

Russian Propaganda Fuels Nuclear Blackmail Rhetoric

Executive Summary: Over the past several months, Russian propaganda and reputable analytical platforms close to the Kremlin have increasingly threatened to use nuclear weapons against the West. On the one

Stagflation in Russia Likely as Kremlin Redistributes Businesses to Avoid Discontent

Executive Summary: Economists predict a slowing of Russia’s civilian economy next year with a strong inflationary trend. This will elicit dissatisfaction, not only among ordinary people, but also among the

Russia Hopes to Use ‘World Majority’ Against the West

Executive Summary: The pro-Kremlin Valdai Discussion Club conference on Sino-Russian relations on October 14–15 demonstrated Moscow’s goals of building a new world order together with the so-called “world majority” as

Moscow Considers Borrowing From Tehran’s Economic Model to Weather Sanctions

Executive Summary: As Russia suffers under Western sanctions, Kremlin propagandists have turned their attention to Iran and advocated studying the Iranian experience of living under sanctions including Iranian scientific innovation

Kremlin Patriotic Education Policy Hampers Country’s Development

Executive Summary: As the new school year begins in Russia, the Kremlin is restructuring the curriculum to be more patriotic, teaching school children about “what is important,” including the “Fundamentals

As Domestic Discontent Simmers, Russia Again Tries to Draw Belarus Into War

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk has caused Putin’s ratings to fall to their lowest point since the war began. The majority of Russians, nevertheless, still say they are “satisfied”

Putin’s War Myths Crumble as Ukraine Advances in Kursk Oblast

Executive Summary: Ukrainian troops have entered Russian territory in the Kursk direction, and Russia has been unable to gain the upper hand. Some reports indicate that Ukraine’s success was made

Brutal Strikes on Ukraine Preserve Putin’s Maneuverability

Executive Summary: The series of brutal Russian strikes against Ukraine, especially on Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital, have raised the stakes of Moscow’s war before a possible start of a negotiation process,

Russian Economy Stagnates Amid Claims of Growing Global Influence

Executive Summary: Pro-Kremlin analysts increasingly insist that Moscow is becoming a leader in the next phase of global technological advancement and is moving toward the economy of the future. Some

Kremlin Uses Russian and International Youth to Expand Influence and Fight in Ukraine

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is increasing efforts to work with foreign youth, journalists, and politicians through the federal agency Rossotrudnichestvo by offering training from leading Russian propagandists. Simultaneously, in Russia

Russian Businesses Maintain Loyalty to Kremlin Despite War-Related Losses

Executive Summary: Russian businesses have experienced serious losses since the beginning of the war in Ukraine due to Western sanctions, but many continue to trust the Kremlin. Some companies viewed

Moscow Seemingly Escalates Confrontation With Europe

Executive Summary: Germany detained two suspected Russian agents for allegedly planning to sabotage military facilities while Russian propagandists deny the existence of an espionage network. Moscow appears to increasingly consider

Russians Left With Unanswered Questions After Crocus City Hall Attack

Executive Summary: Russian propaganda has admitted to the involvement of Islamic State militants in the attack on Crocus City Hall while pushing the narrative that the West is to blame

Kremlin Continues Tactic of Pitting West Against Itself

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declarations regarding Poland once again demonstrate that the Kremlin is trying to create and strengthen contradictions between its geopolitical enemies. Moscow has a similar

Kremlin Lures Russians to Support War with Access to Its Spoils

Executive Summary: Support for Russian presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin indicates readiness among Russians to oppose the war openly, reflecting discontent with both Putin and ongoing conflicts and motivating the Kremlin

Kremlin Creates Illusion of Imaginary Victories While Unable to Solve Real Problems (Part Two)

Executive Summary: Economic decline and growing security threats limit the effectiveness of Kremlin propagandists’ claims of a “bright future” for a “new Russia.” Moscow has been unable to adequately provide

The New Year Brings Greater Censorship and Repression in Russia

In December 2023, independent journalists and human rights activists prepared a prognosis of what awaits Russia in the near future. According to participants in the “Network Freedoms” project, Russian citizens

Kremlin Plays a Dangerous Game in Ignoring Protests Against Front-Line Conditions

In recent weeks, Russia has witnessed increased reports of violence against military personnel. The violence includes demonstrative retaliation against “refuseniks” (Russians who avoid conscription), “meat assaults” (human wave tactics used

China Exploits Russia’s Vulnerabilities

According to reports from Chinese media in late November, Beijing has refused to invest in the construction of the Power of Siberia-2 natural gas pipeline, proposing instead that Moscow fully

Moscow Seeks Solutions to Growing Domestic Discontent Over War Effort

On November 19, the wives and mothers of mobilized Russian soldiers held a protest in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk against rumors of another mass mobilization and demanded the return

Moscow Distances Itself From Repeat of ‘Afghan Syndrome’ Among Veterans of War in Ukraine

Life at home is not always peaceful and full of glory for Russian soldiers returning from the war in Ukraine. Recent statistics from the Judicial Department of the Russian Supreme

Ethnic Strife Resurgent in Russia

Anti-Semitic demonstrations in various cities in the North Caucasus marked the end of October. On October 29, in Dagestan, several hundred people broke into the Flamingo Hotel in Khasavyurt demanding

Russian Propaganda Efforts to Capitalize on Fighting in Gaza May Backfire

On October 7, following the brutal attack by Hamas terrorists on Israel, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict began evolving into a full-scale war. The Kremlin's propaganda does not hide the fact that

Radical ‘Diplomacy’ Harms Moscow’s Allies

Russian President Vladimir Putin has struggled to maintain control over religious radicals and other aggressive advocates of his war against Ukraine, though his political ideology and worldview do not significantly

Moscow Tries to Bolster Military Forces While Avoiding Overt Mobilization

As fall approaches, rumors have been picking up in Russia regarding a potential new wave of mobilization. At the same time, pro-Kremlin analysts and propagandists assert that the current methods

Aggressive Nuclear Propaganda Sets Trap for the Kremlin

In recent months, it has been rare to find a popular Russian political show that does not include calls for a nuclear strike against Ukraine and the West. At the

Will Putin’s Successor Be More Flawed, Brutal and Inept?

It appears that the influence of the radical patriots in Russia has declined as of late. Around the same time as the arrest of war criminal and regime critic Igor

Will Russian Youth Be Educated by Criminals?

Prisoners and “veterans of the special military operation (SVO)” occupy an increasingly significant place in various spheres of Russian society, even if this does not especially suit the Kremlin. Pro-Kremlin

Propaganda and Repression Turn Against Their Creators in Russia

Conflicts continue to mount among the various “Kremlin towers,” and lately a curious trend has become discernible: Those methods previously used by the Russian authorities against dissidents have begun to

The Putin Vertical Will Continue to Collapse

At first glance, it may appear that the Kremlin has managed to alleviate the consequences of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s revolt. Sociological surveys conducted by the Russian Field company reveal that support

Russian Think Tanks Enable the Kremlin’s Dangerous Delusions

When it comes to Russian propaganda, it is important to remember the so-called “analytical centers” that constitute it, including the Valdai Discussion Club, Foreign Policy Research Foundation and Russian International

Jamestown Analyst Ksenia Kirillova interviewed by Outlook India on Wagner’s ‘mutiny’

On June 24, Jamestown Foundation analyst Ksenia Kirillova was interviewed by Outlook India regarding the fallout from Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group's "march for justice." Her EDM article from May 22

The Concept of Russian Victory Against a Background of Failure

Russian elites continue to assure the Russian population that there is no future without a victory over Ukraine; however, the image of this victory has been considerably modified in the

Ukrainian Sabotage Operations Could Spell Increased Confrontation Between Russian Special Services

In an attempt to resist increasingly significant Ukrainian sabotage operations, the Russian special services may shift to a new and bloodier round of interagency competition. Recent months have shown that

Can the Russian Opposition Foment Regime Change?

The Kremlin continues to experience failures on the frontlines in Ukraine at a time when conflicts between various private military companies and the regular Russian army are turning sharper and

Will Moscow Turn Its Back on ‘Systemic Liberals’?

Recently, the so-called “national-patriotic” elite in Russia have intensified their attacks on the government’s financial and economic bloc. On April 21, well-known Russian propagandist and economist Mikhail Khazin revealed, “Liberals

Russia’s Main Strategy: Demonize Ukraine and Hope for Weakening Western Support

As the United States continues to investigate the massive leak of classified Pentagon documents that include key strategic insights into plans for a Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russian propaganda is trying to

Potential for Conflict Growing in Russian Society

While, according to sociological data, approval for the war against Ukraine in Russian society remains at 70 percent (Globaleurope.eu, February 27), and the Russian elite seemingly demonstrate loyalty in support

Putin’s Regime Is Acquiring Features of Nazism

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Vladimir Putin regime has been increasingly compared to Hitler’s Nazi Germany. At the end of last year, the Russian television

Moscow Uses Tragedies Caused by War to Further Justify It

The consequences of Moscow’s war against Ukraine have begun to appear in Russian territory. At the end of February 2023, Russia’s border regions suffered a massive drone attack. On February

Why Putin Cannot End His War Against Ukraine

Among the many terrible consequences of Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine launched by Vladimir Putin a year ago, one should be singled out—that is, the Russian president’s inability to end

Jamestown Analyst Ksenia Kirillova interviewed by Outlook India on the Ukraine war and Putin’s miscalculations

Jamestown Foundation Analyst Ksenia Kirillova was interviewed by Outlook India on what we have learned from Russia's war against Ukraine as we approach the one-year anniversary of Moscow's re-invasion. "It

What Are the Kremlin’s Hopes for Its War Against Ukraine?

In the 12th month of Russia’s war against Ukraine, analysts close to the Kremlin are increasingly sounding the alarm that the Russian people should prepare for a long-term conflict. At

To Ensnare or Repress? Russia and Belarus Debate How to Handle Expatriates

On December 28, in Belarus, a closed tribunal began against Tatyana Kurilina, the former administrator of web-based chats for Belarusian oppositionists. Kurilina has been charged under 12 articles of Belarus’s

Russia Finds a New Way to Survive Defeat

After the humiliating surrender of Kherson, Russian troops have produced no lasting military victories on the battlefield. Even the devastating missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are not producing the

Kremlin Analysts Call for Killing of Political Emigrants Abroad

As his war against Ukraine falters, and against the backdrop of Ukrainian forces’ liberation of Kherson, Russian President Vladimir Putin has no other choice than to increase repression at home

Infantilism and Sacrifice: Why Russians Go to War Even When They Disagree With It

The Russian authorities have seriously embraced the ideological indoctrination of children through “patriotic propaganda” to guarantee their unwavering loyalty as adults. Meanwhile, psychologists point out that Russian society embraces numerous

Mobilization and Annexation Will Create More Problems for Moscow

In July 2022, military analysts loyal to the Kremlin noted that Russia lacked the manpower for a massive offensive (Topwar.ru, July 23). At the beginning of September, Russian pro-war experts

Jamestown Analyst Kseniya Kirillova quoted by G-Zero on Putin’s ‘partial mobilization’

Jamestown Foundation Analyst Kseniya Kirillova offered her expert analysis on Putin's "partial mobilization" announcement to G-Zero. "The Kremlin calls it ‘partial’ so as not to cause panic among the population,

Failure in Ukraine Increases Moscow’s Repression and Citizens’ Distrust

Despite unprecedented repression by the Russian authorities against anyone who doubts the necessity of President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, more citizens are finding the courage to speak out. At

Spy Scandal in Albania: Could Russian Intelligence Be Using Bloggers?

On August 20, two Russians and a Ukrainian were arrested in Albania as they tried to enter a defunct military factory in the city of Gramsci. According to Albanian authorities,

New Concept of ‘Russian Sovereignty’ Is Inextricably Linked to the War

Military experts loyal to the Kremlin are increasingly recognizing that Russia does not have the resources to implement President Vladimir Putin’s ambitious geopolitical plans. However, Moscow leadership is seemingly no

Is a Military Coup Expected in Russia?

Pro-Kremlin sociologists record an extremely low level of protest activity in Russia against the background of the Ukrainian war. In particular, the Social Opinion Fund notes that only about 15

A Prolonged War in Ukraine Is Advantageous to Russia

On June 18, Lithuania blocked the transit by rail of sanctioned goods between Kaliningrad Oblast and the rest of Russia , a step that Russian propaganda immediately claimed could be

Not Only War: How the Kremlin Tries to Influence the Policies of Other Countries

Moscow’s attempts to change the policies of other countries in its favor are not limited to military actions in Ukraine. Against the background of the war, the Kremlin is working

Kseniya Kirillova Interviewed by Astna, Concerning the Competence of Russia’s Secret Services

On April 29, 2022, an interview with Kseniya Kirillova concerning the competence of Russia's secret services was published Astna.

Nuclear Escalation and Russian Propaganda: Conjuring a Crisis

While continuing its armed assault on the battlefields of Donbas, the Kremlin is boosting its attacks against Ukraine on the information front as well. Russian propaganda’s continuing dehumanization of Ukraine

Ukrainian Experts: Russian Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons a Real Possibility

Following the March 29 round of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations, held in Istanbul, a cautious optimism crept into the rhetoric of the Russian delegation. However, this was swiftly followed by harshly

Putin Opens a Second Front: The Battle Against ‘Traitors’ Inside Russia

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, conceived as a “blitzkrieg,” has gone on already for a month, inflicting colossal damage to Ukraine and making life in Russia substantially worse. Nevertheless, pro-government

Putin Is Losing the War, but Russians Have Stockholm Syndrome

After two weeks of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the majority of Russian society apparently still supports the aggression. Pro-government opinion poll organizations cheerfully report 71 percent backing for the

Majority of Russians Not Against War Now, but This Will Change

From the beginning of President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, anti-war actions have swept through all the major cities of Russia. Protests break out practically every day and, according

The Kyiv Independent Quotes Jamestown Analyst Kseniya Kirillova

On February 28, The Kyiv Independent quoted Jamestown analyst Kseniya Kirillova in an article concerning the effects of sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Russian Propagandists Justify Aggressive Policies as a Battle Against the ‘Western Yoke’

The Kremlin’s official recognition of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR) on Monday, February 22, further aggravated the confrontation between Russia and the West. As if preparing

Kremlin Refocuses Its Propaganda in Preparation for War

While Russia continues to build up its military forces on the Ukrainian border (see EDM, December 13, 2021 and January 20, 2022), the Kremlin has also stepped up the war

Russian Ideologists Call for External Expansion: What Can Ukraine Expect?

Kyiv’s western allies continue to express concern over the buildup of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine (see EDM, November 8, 29). US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said

Analyst Kseniya Kirillova in The Daily Beast about FBI Investigating Russian Diaspora

On June 7, The Daily Beast published an article about the Russian diaspora being under investigation by the FBI. The article included commentary by Jamestown analyst Kseniya Kirillova. According to

Russian Influence in Montenegro Could Create a Threat for NATO’s Information Security

A scandal erupted in Montenegro at the end of March: the head of the Balkan country’s National Security Agency (ANB), Dejan Vukšić, was charged with revealing secret information during a

Russian Authorities Redouble Pressure to Preserve Crimeans’ Loyalty

Moscow and most Russian regions saw a series of huge rallies at the end of January and early February, in which protesters demanded the immediate release of Russian dissident and

Ukraine’s Geopolitical Successes Become Russian Defeats

In the first half of October, the Ukrainian leadership concluded a series of important international agreements, with significance not only for Kyiv itself but also for buttressing regional security more

Can Turmoil in Belarus and Karabakh Inspire a New Patriotic Surge in Russia?

Protests in Belarus and the fighting in Karabakh have upended relations between the Russian authorities and the leaders of Minsk and Yerevan. In the past, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and

Ukrainian Reverberations of the Wagner Arrests in Belarus: Russian Disinformation?

A scandal surrounding the alleged “betrayal” by a high-ranking official of the presidential administration is rapidly gaining momentum in Ukraine. The situation curiously concerns the detention of 33 mercenaries from

Moscow Pressures Ukrainian Authorities by Stepping Up Passportization Efforts

On June 9, Russian parliamentarian Viktor Vodolatskiy declared that this year, 600,000–800,000 inhabitants of the unrecognized “republics” on the occupied territory of Ukrainian Donbas will receive Russian citizenship (TASS, June

Russian Influence Grows in Central Asia

The Russian Federation is strengthening its economic integration with several Central Asian states. At the beginning of April, the authorities of Uzbekistan and Russia agreed to set up an economic

Russia Tries to Capitalize on the Coronavirus Pandemic

While the whole world copes with the crisis caused by the novel coronavirus pandemic responsible for COVID-19, Moscow has been attempting to take advantage of the situation. Under the pretext

Russia Pushes to Drastically Expand Its Influence Over Ukraine, Rest of Post-Soviet Space

In recent months, the Kremlin dramatically stepped up efforts to push its interests and political agenda across the post-Soviet space as part of various “negotiations” and “conflict resolution procedures.” A

Russia Faces New Demands and Conditions From Bulgaria

Tensions between Russia and Bulgaria looked on the verge of resolution at the end of last month. But trust between the two countries has since declined. In late January, Bulgaria

Serbia’s Espionage Scandal May Point to Moscow’s Growing Mistrust of Serbian Leadership

An espionage scandal has erupted in Serbia over the possible recruitment of a senior Serbian official by Russian special services. A video posted online by someone using the YouTube handle

Events

Join Us on June 12 – Russia’s Future: A Challenge for U.S. Policy

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 turned Moscow’s... MORE

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Books and Reports

Baltic Interoperability Report

The “Baltic Interoperability Report” is the first publication of the Baltic Security Strategy Project (BSSP), the largest independent security study in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. For these three countries, which are challenged by variations in regional stability and security over the years, enhanced military interoperability has been and still... MORE