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China’s Use of U.S. Satellite Communications Technology in the South China Sea
Introduction In recent years, the maritime law enforcement (MLE) forces of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have dominated the contested waters of the South China Sea (AMTI, December 4, 2020). While the exponential growth and increasing assertiveness of the China Coast Guard (CCG) have... MORE

Iran Seeks to Reroute North-South Transport Corridor to Armenia, Away From Azerbaijan
Iran emerged as a potential loser from the Russia-brokered trilateral truce accords that ended last autumn’s 44-day Second Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan (see EDM January 25). Therefore, Tehran is seeking ways to reposition itself into the new situation in line with its interests.... MORE

Growing Azerbaijani–Central Asian Ties Likely to Trigger Conflicts With Russia and Iran
Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War (September 29–November 9) has had a transformative effect on the country. It not only changed the attitudes of its population, whose members now feel themselves to be heroes rather than victims (see EDM, January 21), but also bolstered... MORE

Russia’s Iskander Missiles Fail in Karabakh but Cause Crisis in Armenia
The Second Karabakh War, between Armenia and Azerbaijan, began on September 27, 2020, and ended on November 9, 2020, with a Russian-brokered and guaranteed agreement. The conflict claimed the lives of thousands of Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers. But after 44 days of fierce fighting, it... MORE

Russian Aerospace Forces Journal Recommends Preventive Strike Against NATO
Josep Borrell, the European Union’s high representative for foreign and security policy, visited Moscow in person last week (February 5)—still highly unusual during the continuing global COVID-19 pandemic. Borell’s face-to-face talks with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, initially aimed at finding ways to reverse the... MORE

Chinese Demographic Signals Bode Ill for Future Development
A new study published February 8 by the Ministry of Public Security of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (MPS, 中华人民共和国公安部, zhonghua renmin gongheguo gongan bu) reported that there were 10.035 million registered births in 2020, down from 11.79 million in 2019. This represents a... MORE

Iran’s Resistance Axis Rattled by Divisions: Asaib Ahl al-Haq’s Leader Rejects the Ceasefire in Iraq
On December 20, 2020, 21 Katyusha rockets struck the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, breaking an Iranian-sponsored ceasefire in Iraq for a second time (U.S. Central Command, December 23, 2020). The Iraqi security forces later arrested a member of the Iraqi political and militant organization Asaib... MORE

Moscow Expanding Ties With Iran to Counter Growing Turkish Influence Around Caspian
Moscow is alarmed by the expansion of Turkish influence in the Caspian region, most immediately by Turkey’s enthusiasm for trans-Caspian natural gas pipelines, something that could undercut Russia’s ability to dominate that market. In response, Russia has expanded its own naval activities in the Caspian... MORE

Russia Calibrating Low-Intensity War in Ukraine’s East
From January 21 through February 14, Russian and proxy forces killed 13 Ukrainian soldiers and wounded at least another 19 along the frontline in Ukraine’s Donbas. Most of these casualties were inflicted by snipers, some of whom were apparently deployed from Russia’s interior for a... MORE

Baku and Ankara Deny Turkish Military Bases Being Established in Azerbaijan
The Azerbaijani government has denied accounts, first published on January 8 in Haqqin.az but subsequently deleted, of three Turkish military bases allegedly being established in Azerbaijan as a consequence of Turkish military assistance to Baku during last year’s 44-day Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict. The reports, if accurate,... MORE