Executive Summary: A lack of viable challenger suggests that Xi Jinping will remain in power, even if he is more vulnerable today, and his power more curtailed, than in years past. Personnel purges of Xi’s allies across the top echelons of the military since 2023... MORE

One of the weakest points in the survivability of President Vladimir Putin’s regime is the Russian economy. On April 24, Putin assured Russian business leaders that the country’s economic challenges are part of a planned “soft-landing” to curb inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in... MORE

Executive Summary: Cyber operations will be involved in the opening stages of any conflict that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is involved in. This makes the Cyberspace Force an essential bellwether as to what conflicts Beijing anticipates and what conflicts it is tacitly preparing... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s demographic decline is accelerating, with the population giving birth to fewer babies during the first quarter of 2025 than at any time in the last two centuries. Moscow is alarmed by demographic decline because of the impact of population decline on the... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is rapidly expanding its arsenal of high-power microwave (HPM) weapons as part of its broader strategy to achieve dominance in the electromagnetic spectrum. Recent breakthroughs—including the deployment of mobile-platform HPM systems—signal the PLA’s intent to integrate these capabilities... MORE

We are publishing this piece because Mr. Irdi served within the Italian government for seventeen years in various capacities related to foreign affairs and security policy, including as a special advisor to Italy’s minister of foreign affairs. During his tenure at the Italian prime minister’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s shadow war against Poland combines low-level sabotage, insider espionage, informational warfare, and cyber‑attacks. Between 2010 and 2025, Polish authorities closed 30 subterfuge cases, leading to the arrests of 61 individuals—19 cases and 49 arrests since 2021—accounting for roughly 35 percent of Europe’s Russian-linked... MORE

Executive Summary: Taiwan is bolstering its deterrence posture through whole-of-society defense resilience drills, involving civilians in readiness activities in part to raise confidence in national defense and drawing on European and Japanese models in the process. The most recent drill included 1,500 participants and tested... MORE

On May 1, Ukraine and the United States signed a long-anticipated minerals deal providing the United States with preferential rights to mineral extraction in Ukraine. The agreement creates a U.S.-controlled, jointly-managed investment fund that will receive revenues from new projects in critical minerals, oil, and... MORE

Executive Summary: The government of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) does not just envision its “AI+ initiative” as bolstering the national economy but aiding its plans for modernizing its social stability system. DeepSeek has been designed, thanks to regulations, in a way that makes... MORE