Paul Goble
Paul Goble is a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia. Most recently, he was director of research and publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. Earlier, he served as vice dean for the social sciences and humanities at Audentes University in Tallinn and a senior research associate at the EuroCollege of the University of Tartu in Estonia. While there, he launched the “Window on Eurasia” series. Prior to joining the faculty there in 2004, he served in various capacities in the U.S. State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the International Broadcasting Bureau as well as at the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He writes frequently on ethnic and religious issues and has edited five volumes on ethnicity and religion in the former Soviet space. Trained at Miami University in Ohio and the University of Chicago, he has been decorated by the governments of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for his work in promoting Baltic independence and the withdrawal of Russian forces from those formerly occupied lands.
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Articles by Paul Goble
Why Does Kyrgyzstan Want a Second Russian Military Base?
Kyrgyzstan has had a Russian military base on its territory since handing over the Kant airfield to Moscow in 2003. And now it wants a second one. The Kyrgyz Republic’s president,
Kaliningrad Separatism Again on the Rise
Kaliningrad oblast, the non-contiguous part of the Russian Federation that Joseph Stalin formed after annexing much of German East Prussia at the end of World War II, has often been
‘Railroad Wars’ Intensify in South Caucasus
The competition between two rail corridor projects in the South Caucasus—the north-south one, long promoted by Moscow, and the east-west one backed by China, Central Asia and the West—has been
Inter-Ethnic Land Conflicts Threaten Borders in North Caucasus
Since the end of the Soviet system, the greatest source of conflicts in the North Caucasus has been neither Islamism nor nationalism but rather property—over who controls this or that
Moscow Cannot Afford a South Ossetian Strategy in Ukraine’s Donbas
Vladimir Putin has slammed the brakes on a much-ballyhooed Duma proposal to offer Ukrainians in the occupied Donbas region Russian citizenship on a simplified basis (Kommersant, July 18). Almost certainly,
Ethnic Conflicts in Dagestan Multiply, Threatening Far More Than Only That Republic
Ethnic conflicts in Dagestan, the most Islamic and multi-ethnic republic in the North Caucasus, have multiplied and intensified over the last month. The turmoil threatens not only the territorial integrity
Why Is Moscow so Afraid of 2,000 Pomors in Karelia?
In 1953, subscribers to the third edition of the Bolshaya Sovetskaya Entsiklopedia were told to cut out the pages in one of its volumes devoted to a biography of the
Jamestown Analyst Paul Goble Interviewed by New Yorker Magazine
On June 19, The New Yorker magazine published a piece on alleged murders of Putin critics in the United States, which featured comments by regular EDM contributor Paul Goble.
Moscow, Circassians Now on Collision Course
The Circassian national movement in the North Caucasus as well as in the diaspora is on the rise. In part, this trend is powered by new activism among Circassian young
Having Lost ‘Soft’ Power in Post-Soviet Space, Moscow Increasingly Using ‘Hard’
The aggressiveness Moscow has shown in its relations with countries in the former Soviet space reflects Russia’s loss of influence via “soft” power channels. At the same time, the Kremlin’s
Turkic Nogays Say Makhachkala’s Land Reform Threatens Ethnic Peace in Dagestan
The leaders of Dagestan’s 40,000 Nogays, say that Makhachkala’s latest land reform program violates Moscow’s nationality policy, threatens their survival as a nation, and undermines the possibility for inter-ethnic peace
Moscow’s War in Ukraine Deepens Divides Among Russia’s Cossacks
With the encouragement of the Moscow media, many in Russia and the West assume that Russian Cossacks are entirely behind Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, that they are the group
Collapse of Russian Shipping in the Caspian Puts Moscow’s Regional Strategy at Risk
Since the start of 2017, the amount of cargo passing through Russian ports on the Caspian Sea has fallen, compared to last year, by 48.4 percent to only 1.1 million
Moscow’s Efforts to Erase Circassian History Are Backfiring
Like the tsarist authorities who expelled the Circassians from the North Caucasus in 1864, an action many refer to as an “act of genocide,” and the Soviet ones who divided
Caught Between Russians and Tatars: Can the Bashkirs Save Bashkortostan?
Outnumbered in their republic by ethnic Russians and nearly equaled by ethnic Tatars, the Bashkirs of Bashkortostan, the product of Joseph Stalin’s first great act of ethnic engineering, have responded
Russian Fake News Operation Seeks to Generate Baltic Opposition to NATO Presence
Russian media outlets in Moscow and in the Baltic countries have stepped up their efforts to generate opposition among Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Yezidis and Yerevan Complicating Moscow’s Efforts to Influence Kurds in Iraq and Syria
The convocation, last February, of a Kurdish conference in Moscow that included the Yezidis (Aranews.net, February 16), combined with new Kurdish-Yezidi claims that the Russian military has promised to provide
Tatarstan’s Pursuit of Power-Sharing Accord With Moscow Energizes National Movements Across Russia
This summer, the first extension of the Republic of Tatarstan’s ten-year power-sharing agreement with Moscow runs out. Kazan is currently pursuing another extension and possible modifications to the accord. In
Russians Increasingly Prepared to Use Firearms Against Police
Russians currently own approximately 25 million guns, according to Moscow experts; and while only about 20 percent of these are registered with the authorities as the law requires, most Russian
Islamicized Armenians in Turkey: A Bridge or a Threat?
Groups whose identities do not fit the mold others have for them often become problems for both their host countries and the different communities of which they are a part.
Cossacks Fighting Moscow’s Expanded Efforts to Make Them Ethnic Russians
From the Russian Empire through the Soviet Union to the Russian Federation today, the central government of that country has always viewed Cossacks as part of the Russian nation, something
Regional Statistics—But Not Moscow’s—Point to Russia’s Demographic Collapse
Rosstat, the agency of the Russian government responsible for assembling and publishing statistics, increasingly issues figures at variance with reality. This restoration of a Soviet-era pattern simultaneously makes it more
Russian Regions Erecting Statues to Those Who Resisted Muscovite Expansion
Efforts by non-Russian countries to shed Moscow-imposed monuments—from the destruction of Vladimir Lenin statues in the Baltic countries in 1991, to Ukraine’s current effort at de-communizing the public space in
Lithuanian Popular Militia Expands to Defend Against Russian Threat
The Donald Trump administration has repeatedly suggested that the true measure of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member country’s commitment to the Alliance—and hence of the Alliance to it—is
Foreword — Decline, Decay and Disintegration: Russia’s Future in the 21st Century
Russia currently faces three existential challenges that already point to its decline, decay and even disintegration in the coming decades. It has an economy oriented to the past rather than
Central Asian Countries Erecting New Cities to Cope With Population Explosion
Even though fertility rates have fallen in Central Asia over the last two decades, the earlier rise in the number of births means that the populations of these countries continue
Beyond Two Percent: How Estonia is Strengthening Its Security and NATO’s
Multiple officials in the new United States presidential administration have suggested that not all member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are paying their fair share for the
Little-Known Turkmenistan About to Become Known for Its Big Problems
No post-Soviet republic is so little known beyond its borders as Turkmenistan. This relative obscurity internationally is the result of three legacies: its poverty in Soviet times; its relatively tiny
Is Kaliningrad on Its Way to Becoming ‘Russia’s Crimea?’
Ever since Vladimir Putin’s Crimean Anschluss, Moscow analysts have occasionally worried that the West might respond by trying to seize the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad in revenge. Russian fears are
Are Moscow and the West Swapping Positions on Belarus?
Since Alyaksandr Lukashenka became president of Belarus over two decades ago, Moscow has consistently viewed his country as its ally, difficult at times but one that, when the chips were
Moscow Seeks to Reinforce Trump’s Belief That Force Alone Can Defeat Islamic State
For at least the last 15 years, there has been an intense debate in both Russia and the West about how radical Islam can be defeated. Some argue that force
Independent Russian Analysts Argue Moscow Secretly Cooperating With the Islamic State
In seeking to extract benefits from a disaster, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly been willing to actually manufacture such disasters so that their time, place and nature give him
Are the Kremlin’s LPR and DPR About to Unite or Fight Each Other?
The Kremlin has deliberately obscured the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), in eastern Ukraine, under a fog of confusion. As such, on a single
Putin’s New Nationalities Policy Set to Fail Spectacularly
Russian President Vladimir Putin is putting in place a new approach to nationality issues within the Russian Federation, one that not only represents a departure from the first 16 years
Struggle Over Tatar Language Impacts More Than Just Tatarstan
Tatarstan has long been considered the bellwether of nationality relations inside Russia. The republic has arguably held this status since at least 1920, when Joseph Stalin—then Soviet Commissar for Nationalities
In Syria, Moscow Orchestrating Another ‘Circassian Genocide’
The Russian government killed or expelled nearly the entire Circassian nation from the North Caucasus in 1864, after this group resisted the Russian Empire’s advance there for more than a
Is Bashkortostan About to Explode Along Ethnic Lines?
By population, Bashkortostan is the largest non-Russian republic in the Russian Federation. And yet, its particular ethnic mix has meant that this Middle Volga region has heretofore been far less
Strategic Assessment: The Paradox of Baltic Security in 2016
The following political landscape piece is a part of Eurasia Daily Monitor’s special quarterly series of strategic assessments of developments across Eurasia. These pieces examine recent important developments and trends
Russian Security Services Said Behind Electronic Circassian ‘Census’
In the past, Moscow has used population censuses to promote divisions within the Circassian nation. As part of its divide-and-conquer effort in the North Caucasus as well as to isolate
Anti-War Protests in Russia; Anti-Russian Protests in Belarus
The Moscow media—and all too often news outlets in the West—paint Russians as a nation 100 percent behind Vladimir Putin’s war in Syria, and Belarusians as a nation fully behind
Putin Restores Nationality-Based Units in Russian Military
Three times in the course of the last century, the Russian military has formed ethnically-based units. During World War I, the tsars created the famed “savage” division, which consisted of
The End of the Line for the Trans-Siberian Railroad?
October 2016 marks the centennial of the completion of the Trans-Siberian Railroad (Trans-Sib), Russia and the world’s longest railroad line. Yet, no special celebrations are planned—in part due to Russia’s
Is Putin Planning a ‘Hybrid’ Deportation of Crimean Tatars and North Caucasians?
Reportedly, the Kremlin is mulling an idea to relocate 500,000–1,000,000 people from the southern portions of the Russian Federation to the Far East and Siberia. This prospect has sparked fears
Moscow Again Trying to Pit Ethnic Russians in Northeastern Estonia Against Tallinn
Moscow is again stirring the pot in northeastern Estonia, trying to pit the ethnic-Russian community there against Tallinn. And it is doing so in the classic tradition of Vladimir Putin’s
Lukashenka Seeks to ‘Balance’ Moscow’s ‘Spiritual Influence’ in Belarus
Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has been carrying on a rapprochement with the Vatican and has even been pushing for Pope Francis to visit Minsk (Interfax, May 23, August 19). Such
Generational Change in Central Asia about More Than Just Leaders
The death of Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov at 78 has focused attention on the issue of generational change both past and present across post-Soviet Central Asia. Given the central role
Jamestown Analyst Paul Goble Cited by Washington Post
An August 6 editorial by the Washington Post cited writings by Jamestown analyst Paul Goble regarding Russia's continued military operations in eastern Ukraine.
China Quietly Displacing Both Russia and US From Central Asia
Since 1991, the influence of the Russian Federation in Central Asia has been on the decline, and many have assumed that the United States would move in to fill the
Moscow Seeks to Put Ukraine’s Smallest Nationalities in Play Against Kyiv
The ethnic-Ukrainian share of Ukraine’s population is now greater than the ethnic-Russian share of the Russian Federation’s population—and significantly larger if one does not include Russian-occupied Crimea and Donbas in
Brexit and Baltic Security—320,000 Balts May Have to Go Home
Many have speculated that the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union will have negative consequences for the countries of Eastern Europe in general and the Baltic States in
Moscow ‘Bypassing’ Armenia to Reach Azerbaijan, Iran and India
Perhaps the most important geopolitical development of mid-July 2016 was not the continuing conflict in the South China Sea, the failed coup in Turkey, or terrorist violence in France—all of
Is It Time for an Updated ‘Anti-Bolshevik Bloc of Nations?’
The strength and longevity of the West’s anti-Communist effort during the Cold War rested on two alliances that no longer exist. The first was the alliance between those committed to
Baltic Geography Presents Moscow With Three Distinct Challenges
Many in the West typically think about the three Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as a single undifferentiated whole. But in fact, they are quite different despite being
How Lithuania’s Ham Radio Operators Outfoxed the Soviets in 1991
Dictatorial regimes of all kinds have always sought to control communications, especially between those in their own countries and the outside world. With the Internet, their ability to do so
Minsk Fears Moscow May Organize Hybrid War and Color Revolution in Belarus
Many governments in the post-Soviet space fear they may be threatened by a color revolution; others are worried that they will become victims of a hybrid war. But Belarus is
Tallinn–Helsinki Railroad Tunnel Could Transform Geopolitics of Northern Europe
In mid-June, the European Union pledged to provide one million euros ($1.13 million) to finance a preliminary study on the feasibility of constructing a railway tunnel between Tallinn and Helsinki,
Moscow Offering Crimean Tatars Ersatz Autonomy
Having illegally occupied Crimea and worked to destroy the Milli Mejlis (the de facto quasi-governing assembly of the Crimean Tatars) and all other independent Crimean Tatar organizations, Moscow is now
Strange Bedfellows: Latvian Nationalists and Ethnic Russians Both Want to Block Entrance of More Russians
It has often been remarked that politics can make strange bedfellows, bringing together groups that one could not imagine agreeing on anything. That is what has been happening in Latvia,
Water Shortages Likely to Reduce Central Asian GDPs by 11 Percent
Although Central Asia as a whole has enough water to promote development, problems in sharing this critical resource among the region’s five post-Soviet republics—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan—are becoming
Dagestan-Azerbaijan Relations: a New Flash Point in the Caucasus?
The Dagestan Days festival opens in Baku this week (May 12–13), during which ties between that republic in the Russian North Caucasus and Azerbaijan will be celebrated and new business
Russian Money for Belarus: Not for a Base but to Limit Minsk’s Turn Toward Europe
Many observers have concluded that Moscow’s new $2 billion aid package to Belarus is part of a deal to allow Russia to establish a military airbase on the territory of
Central Asia’s ‘Karabakhs’ May Be Even More Dangerous Than the Original
The renewed violence in Azerbaijan’s separatist region of Karabakh (see EDM, April 6) is attracting attention to three larger problems in other parts of the former Soviet space: the existence
Resistance to Re-Imposition of Russian Draft in North Caucasus Growing
No region of the Russian Federation has a greater number of young men who could qualify to serve in the Russian military than does the North Caucasus, the combined result
Resistance to Re-Imposition of Russian Draft in North Caucasus Growing
No region of the Russian Federation has a greater number of young men who could qualify to serve in the Russian military than does the North Caucasus, the combined result
Uzbekistan Achieves Railroad Independence
Twenty-five years after gaining its political independence, Uzbekistan has become “railway independent,” with its residents now able to travel between one part of their Central Asian republic to another, by
Izborsky Club Says Moscow Must Block Alliance of Baltic–Black Sea States
Twenty-five years ago, Moscow’s massive nuclear weapons stockpile could not prevent the Soviet Union from falling apart, because of a conjunction of domestic problems and opposition from abroad, the influential
Moscow Once Again Trying to Put the Kurds in Play Against Turkey
The Kremlin is once again seeking to use the Kurds, the largest stateless national group in the world, for Moscow’s own purposes. In particular, Russia has opened a quasi-diplomatic representation
Ethnic Russians Leaving Central Asia and With Them, Putin’s Hopes for Influence
Because Vladimir Putin has made the presence of ethnic Russians in other countries so central to his efforts to expand Moscow’s influence, their departure from any region or country means
Moscow Shifting from Direct Aggression to Building a Fifth Column in Ukraine
Given Moscow’s desire to get out from under the sanctions regime and the almost equal desire of some Western governments to declare victory and lift it, the Kremlin appears likely
How Much Does Baku Control Ethnic Azerbaijanis Inside Russia?
Moscow’s plans to push through a law establishing criminal penalties for those who deny that the 1915 events in the Ottoman Empire were a “genocide” have sparked unusual dissent among
Neither Turkmenistan nor Tajikistan Seen Able to Resist Islamic State
Neither Turkmenistan, which has maintained a policy of strict neutrality since the 1990s, nor Tajikistan, which hosts a Russian military base on its territory, has a military force capable of
Nazarbayev Blocks Russian TV in Kazakhstan
In slightly over a generation, Kazakhstan has gone from being a republic in which ethnic Russians formed a plurality, to one in which ethnic Kazakhs form a two-thirds majority. But
Armenia Facing Demographic Collapse
“ ‘All progressive humanity’ is concerned by the periodic reports about the disappearance of this or that type of plant or animal, [but] we are much less concerned about the
Uncontrolled Movements of People in North Caucasus Threaten Russian Security
The Russian authorities have lost control over three key movements of people in the North Caucasus—from rural areas to the cities, from the North Caucasus region to Moscow and other
Uncontrolled Movements of People in North Caucasus Threaten Russian Security
The Russian authorities have lost control over three key movements of people in the North Caucasus—from rural areas to the cities, from the North Caucasus region to Moscow and other
‘A Syrian Echo in Azerbaijan’? Shiites, Police Clash in Nardaran
Clashes between the police and residents of the long-troubled Absheron peninsula city of Nardaran, on November 25–26, have resulted in numerous arrests and deaths. These deadly incidents have sparked concerns
Kazakhstan Gives Russians a Taste of Their Own Medicine With New NGO Law
Vladimir Putin’s flagrant abuse of Russian laws governing the activities of non-governmental organizations (NGO) has led to the demonization and even closure of many of them. Such policies have, not
New Challenges to and From the Muslim Communities of the Baltic Countries
The three small Muslim communities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have had good relations both with the rest of the populations and the governments of these three Baltic countries. But
Russian Flight From Russian Far East Again Increasing
Ethnic-Russian flight from the Far East is again increasing, after appearing to stabilize a few years ago. This development not only changes the balance of ethnic groups living there—few non-Russians
Another Punished People, the Pontic Greeks, Posing New Problems for Moscow in Crimea
The Soviet government tried to force out the Pontic Greeks from the southern part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in the early 1920s, and then subjected that
New Russian Book Says Only Ideological Approach Can Defeat Islamic State
A new 226-page book written by a group of scholars widely reputed to be close to the Russian security services argues that Islamic State (IS) is, first and foremost, an
New Russian Book Says Only Ideological Approach Can Defeat Islamic State
A new 226-page book written by a group of scholars widely reputed to be close to the Russian security services argues that Islamic State (IS) is, first and foremost, an
Is the Middle Volga About to Become a Second North Caucasus?
For the last several years, numerous Russian politicians, commentators and activists have repeatedly suggested that the ethnic and religious situation in Russia’s Middle Volga region—which includes the republics of Tatarstan,
Is the Middle Volga About to Become a Second North Caucasus?
For the last several years, numerous Russian politicians, commentators and activists have repeatedly suggested that the ethnic and religious situation in Russia’s Middle Volga region—which includes the republics of Tatarstan,
Lack of Roads in Russian Far East Limits Moscow’s Power Projection in Pacific
The absence of roads and railways connecting the strategically positioned Kamchatka peninsula, in the Russian Far East, with the rest of the country is undermining Russian national security and reducing
Moscow Launches Hybrid ‘Rail War’ Against Latvia
Russia’s aggression against its neighbors is often called “hybrid” war because it makes use of techniques that give the Kremlin deniability in the eyes of some while allowing Russia to
Russia’s Railways Not Ready for War
Even more than most continental powers, Russia for more than a century has relied on railroads to move massive amounts of men and materiel to respond to military challenges—a reflection
Collapsing Guest Worker Transfer Payments Pushing Central Asia Into Perfect Storm
The collapse in the size of transfer payments from Central Asians working in the Russian Federation—they are down more than half from last year—is having a domino effect in the
Threatened From Afghanistan, Central Asia May Win the Battle Only to Lose the War
Dual armed attacks shook Tajikistan, on the night of September 4, as militants allegedly connected to former deputy defense minister General Abduhalim Nazarzoda fired on a police station and a
North-South Railroad Competitions Reordering Geopolitics of the Caucasus
For most of the post-Soviet period, politicians and pundits have focused on east-west transportation corridors in the southern Caucasus. But today, two north-south railway projects—one that would link Azerbaijan and
Central Asia’s Border Problems Materialize Again
In recent weeks, tensions have been high and rising along Kyrgyzstan’s borders with Uzbekistan as well as Tajikistan—neither of which have been fully demarcated by the countries involved since independence.
Analyst Paul Goble Appears on RFE/RL’s ‘Power Vertical’ Podcast
Longtime expert on Eurasia and regular contributor to EDM Paul Goble appeared on RFE/RL's weekly "The Power Vertical" podcast, on Friday, August 7, to discuss the internal fragility of the
Will Belarus Be Putin’s Next Target?
Both certain Belarusians and some Russian analysts are convinced that Vladimir Putin’s next target will be Belarus. They have their reasons, and these reasons are compelling: Taking Belarus would give
Land-Locked Kazakhstan Plans to Build a Blue-Water Commercial Fleet
Kazakhstan plans to expand its shipping fleet on the Caspian Sea and to acquire, for the first time, a blue-water one (Np.kz, July 23). Its maritime strategy is aimed to
Today’s Ethno-Regional Clans in Tajikistan Are Products of Soviet Nationality Policy
Tajikistan’s ethno-regional clans have played a key role in the political life of this Central Asian republic since 1991. These clans have their roots not so much in ancient and
The Kerch ‘Curse’: Russian Occupation Makes Crimea an Island
By its illegal occupation of Crimea, Moscow has transformed that Ukrainian peninsula into an island, the second non-contiguous part of the Russian Federation and one that is already giving the
Moscow’s Territorial Division of Central Asia in 1920s ‘Artificial,’ Tajik Historian Says
The Bolshevik government achieved two goals by dividing up the territory of Central Asia into various national republics—it undermined the Pan-Turkic aspirations of the jadids, and it helped break the
Moscow Appears to Be Playing a Most Dangerous Game With the Islamic State
In the wake of terrorist attacks by the Islamic State (IS) across the Middle East and Europe, Russian diplomats and the Kremlin-controlled media have been working overtime to suggest that
With Olympics Behind Them, Russian Officials Continue Their Destruction of Sochi
In the 18 months since the Sochi Winter Olympics, Russian entrepreneurs and Russian officials have taken advantage of the lack of international attention to increase their destruction of the natural
With Olympics Behind Them, Russian Officials Continue Their Destruction of Sochi
In the 18 months since the Sochi Winter Olympics, Russian entrepreneurs and Russian officials have taken advantage of the lack of international attention to increase their destruction of the natural
Shapsugs Increasingly Important Players in Circassian Struggle With Moscow
Most analysts concerned with the Circassian issue in the North Caucasus have focused on the three republics where subgroups of that nation are the titular nationalities—Adygea, Karachaevo-Cherkessia and Kabardino-Balkaria—or on
Shapsugs Increasingly Important Players in Circassian Struggle With Moscow
Most analysts concerned with the Circassian issue in the North Caucasus have focused on the three republics where subgroups of that nation are the titular nationalities—Adygea, Karachaevo-Cherkessia and Kabardino-Balkaria—or on
Moscow-Backed Terrorism Likely to Spread Across Ukraine
All eyes are currently on the actions of Moscow-supported units in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. Speculations abound as to when and where these forces will attack next and whether the
Moscow Patriarch Says Ukrainian Faithful No Longer Obligated to Obey Kyiv
Both due to the other challenges Ukraine faces and because its leaders believe a democratic and European government should not become involved in religious affairs, Ukrainian officials have avoided tackling
Putin and Latvia’s Latgale: Ethnicity as Explanation Vs. Ethnicity as Excuse
Vladimir Putin’s use of ethnicity to justify his actions in Ukraine has been widely accepted in the West but not commonly understood. That is to say, his claims that he
Moscow Patriarchate Rapidly Losing Out in Ukraine—and Beyond
The Moscow Patriarchate is rapidly losing influence in Ukraine and may be dissolving from below. These trends could open the way to the formation of a single autocephalous Ukrainian Orthodox
Mufti Tajuddin Seeks to Make Himself and Then His Son ‘Muslim Patriarch’ of Russia
Many might dismiss the beating of a 57-year-old imam in rural Chuvashia (Regnum, May 7) as a minor local episode. But in fact, it threatens to open a dramatic, violent
Moscow Readying Neo-Cossacks of Belarus for Use Against Lukashenka
Moscow has had little or no success in mobilizing ethnic Russians as a whole in Belarus against the current government in Minsk: the local Russian community, in almost all cases,
Belarusians Bristle at Russian Land Claims on Belarus
Russian imperialists have insisted that more than any other place within the former Soviet space, Belarus is artificial. They reach this conclusion on the basis that Belarus is culturally related
Politically Independent Cossacks Warned About Becoming Labeled ‘US Agents’
Mikhail Vederinkov, the presidential plenipotentiary for the North Caucasus Federal District, told a meeting of senior Cossack officials that they must clear any candidates for the position of ataman (chieftain)
Politically Independent Cossacks Warned About Becoming Labeled ‘US Agents’
Mikhail Vederinkov, the presidential plenipotentiary for the North Caucasus Federal District, told a meeting of senior Cossack officials that they must clear any candidates for the position of ataman (chieftain)
Moscow’s Pressure on Belarus Increasingly Counterproductive
Moscow’s increasing pressure on Minsk to hew the pro-Russia line is proving to be counterproductive in three ways: First, it has prompted President Alyaksandr Lukashenka to take on even more
Turkish Circassians Reject Proffered Alliance With Kurds
Most ethnic minorities around the world are generally appreciative of support from other ethnic minorities, viewing such solidarity as useful to their cause. But there are exceptions, and one of
Turkish Circassians Reject Proffered Alliance With Kurds
Most ethnic minorities around the world are generally appreciative of support from other ethnic minorities, viewing such solidarity as useful to their cause. But there are exceptions, and one of
Russian and Uzbek Soldiers Reportedly Now in Turkmenistan to Counter Afghan Threat
In a measure of just how frightened Ashgabat is of the possibility that Afghan radical forces will invade Turkmenistan, it has reportedly allowed Russian and now Uzbekistani military personnel to
Is Moscow Preparing for a New War Against Georgia?
President Vladimir Putin has been organizing so many military exercises in so many parts of the Russian Federation (see EDM, March 19)—a process that has required Moscow to shift units
Is Moscow Preparing for a New War Against Georgia?
President Vladimir Putin has been organizing so many military exercises in so many parts of the Russian Federation (see EDM, March 19)—a process that has required Moscow to shift units
New Kinds of Language Issues Heat up Across Eurasia
For those long-accustomed to the idea that the situation in the former Soviet space resembles that of France, where an education minister once famously claimed that he could say at
Russian Occupation Crackdown Against Crimean Tatars Intensifies
Now that Vladimir Putin has admitted that he seized Crimea by force rather than annexed it to Russia following the free expression of the will of its population (Euromaidan Press,
Russian Orthodox Activists—Value in Deniability for the Kremlin
The Moscow Patriarchate’s subordination to the political will of the Kremlin has been evident for so long that it no longer attracts much attention. Patriarch Kirill and his entourage can
Dagestan Risks Becoming a ‘Yugoslavia in the Caucasus’
Dagestan, the most ethnically complex republic in the North Caucasus, faces an ever greater risk that it will disintegrate as Yugoslavia did. This growing danger exists both because of the
Dagestan Risks Becoming a ‘Yugoslavia in the Caucasus’
Dagestan, the most ethnically complex republic in the North Caucasus, faces an ever greater risk that it will disintegrate as Yugoslavia did. This growing danger exists both because of the
‘Good Tsar, Bad Boyars’: Popular Attitudes and Azerbaijan’s Future
A commonly held view in Russia is that the government consists of “a good tsar and bad boyars.” That is, the population tends to have a positive attitude about whoever
Unpublished Census Provides Rare and Unvarnished Look at Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan is perhaps the most opaque country of all the post-Soviet states, with the government exercising tight control over almost all information and publishing only those statistical figures that serve
Is Moscow Putting the Talysh in Play Against Azerbaijan?
More than in most parts of the world, the former Soviet space is a place where battles about the present and the future are waged over the past. Most famously,
Russian Think Tank That Pushed for Invasion of Ukraine Wants Moscow to Overthrow Lukashenka
Analysts at the Russian Institute for Strategic Research (RISI), a Moscow-based think tank that pushed hard for Russia to invade Ukraine (Nr2.com.ua, January 13), are now urging Moscow to overthrow
Encouraged by Initial Russian Moves in Ukraine, Transnistria Now Fears for Its Future
No one was more encouraged by Russia’s annexation of Crimea and military moves in Donbas (eastern Ukrainian region encompassing the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces) than the leaders of Transnistria. This
City on Russian-Azerbaijani Border Ready to Explode
Relations between ethnic Azerbaijanis and the Dagestani peoples in the North Caucasus republic’s southern city of Derbent have reached a boiling point. Two new acts of vandalism—one against a grave
City on Russian-Azerbaijani Border Ready to Explode
Relations between ethnic Azerbaijanis and the Dagestani peoples in the North Caucasus republic’s southern city of Derbent have reached a boiling point. Two new acts of vandalism—one against a grave
Regional Problems Ultimately Trump Ukraine as Defining Issue in Central Asia
Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its intervention in other parts of Ukraine, many in Central Asia and beyond concluded that the foreign and domestic policies of the five Central
Kazakhstan Risks Becoming a ‘Second’ Ukraine in 2015, Russian Linguist Says
Astana’s language and nationality policies have put Kazakhstan at risk of becoming a second Ukraine in 2015, according to Ilya Namovir, a Russian linguist who edits the “Russians in Kazakhstan”
Who Is Behind the New Talysh-Language TV Broadcasts in Azerbaijan?
On November 29, a television station styling itself “the National Television of Talyshton” (“Tolyshystoni Millaiiya Vindasado”—TMV) began broadcasting in Azerbaijan under the direction of Talysh poet Zabig Madozh. One year
Some Ukrainians Fear Moscow Planning ‘Bessarabian Republic’ in Odesa
Since this summer, rumors have swirled that Moscow plans to create a Bessarabian People’s Republic on the territory of Ukraine’s Odesa Oblast. Some analysts have suggested that this would allow
Russia to Shift Rail Route to Avoid Going Through Ukraine
Russia frequently seeks to reroute oil and gas pipelines and railway routes in order to bypass those neighboring countries that it hopes to put pressure on. In turn, the West
Would Kyiv Create a Crimean Tatar Battalion?
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Mustafa Cemilev, the longtime leader of the Crimean Tatar national movement who now serves as the presidential plenipotentiary representative for Crimean Tatar affairs, have been
Putin Puts Gagauz in Play Against Moldova and the West
By meeting with the leaders of the pro-Moscow Moldovan Socialist Party last week (November 4) (kremlin.ru, November 5), Russian President Vladimir Putin has sent the kind of signal to the
Moscow Using Budapest to Put Rusins in Play Against Kyiv
In its efforts to promote secessionist ideas among the half-million-strong Rusin community along Ukraine’s Western border, Moscow is simultaneously pursuing three goals. First, it is forcing Kyiv to divert its
Moscow Launches Second Effort to Marginalize Crimean Tatar Mejlis
Because the Crimean Tatars and their assembly, the Mejlis, have opposed the Russian Anschluss of their homeland since the beginning, Moscow and the Russian occupying authorities on the Ukrainian peninsula
How Moscow Is Playing the Russian Autonomy Card in Kazakhstan
In the world of labor union–business relations, it is commonly understood that, oftentimes, the threat of a strike, as long as it is credible, can achieve more than an actual
Crimea’s Consequences for Russia’s Non-Russians—A Net Assessment of Long-Term Nationalities Trends Within the Russian Federation Since the Start of 2014
Not surprisingly, most people have focused on the consequences that Moscow’s Anschluss of Crimea has had for the people of that Ukrainian peninsula, for Ukraine, for Russia’s relations with the
Putin’s Cutbacks in Health Care Send Russian Mortality Rates Back Up
Russia has now fallen to 51st place among the countries of the world in terms of the effectiveness of its medical system, behind Azerbaijan and Belarus. This decline reflects Vladimir
No More International Flights From Russian-Occupied Crimea
As a result of the confluence of two developments, one welcome and encouraging and the other dangerous and worrisome, the airline that had maintained a route between Simerfopol (the capital
Iranian Rail Links and the Geopolitics of the South Caucasus
Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are seeking to link their national railways with those of Iran, something that could be an economic lifesaver for Yerevan and an additional outlet for Baku’s
Chisinau Says Pro-Moscow Provocations Ahead
Mihai Balan, director of Moldova’s Intelligence and Security Service (SIS), says the organization has evidence that Moscow is planning to stage provocations in his country in the coming weeks, in
The Cossacks of Russia: Between Myth and Reality
This week (September 7), more than 300 Cossacks, Russian Orthodox hierarchs, Moscow officials, and researchers assembled in the Russian North Caucasus city of Stavropol. They gathered to discuss the enormous
Kremlin Said to Be Developing Plan for Partitioning Georgia
Since the start of this year, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has invaded Ukraine, annexed Crimea and pushed for Ukraine’s “federalization.” The severe international concern caused by these actions was further compounded
Hot Issue – Lies, Damned Lies and Russian Disinformation
Executive Summary The Russian Federation uses extensive propaganda, outright lies, and—most importantly—disinformation as part of the hybrid warfare it is waging against Ukraine and the West. Disinformation combines truth, what
Moscow Set to Use Karakalpak Separatism Against a Pro-Western Tashkent
The Russian government, which has used ethnic minority challenges against Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine to punish regimes whose foreign and domestic policies are at odds with Moscow’s now seems
Tensions Between Georgian and Armenian Churches Escalate
The Ukrainian events have demonstrated that when religious passions enter into a conflict between two nations, those passions can divide closely related peoples as well as transform the conflicts from
Eurasian Union Can Live With Armenian Occupation of Azerbaijani Lands, Moscow Expert Says
Many commentators in Moscow, Baku and Ankara have expressed the hope that the inclusion of countries in the South Caucasus in Moscow’s Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) will lead to the
Moldova’s Gagauzia: A Model for Resolution of Karabakh Dispute?
Over the last 25 years, many proposals have been suggested for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Among them have been a swapping of territories between
Circassians Portray Russians as Occupiers; Russian Bloggers Complain
In the aul (village) of Afipsip in Adygea, Circassians are preparing to erect a statue of Kizbechu Sheretluko, a Circassian who fought the Russian advance into the North Caucasus in
Circassians Portray Russians as Occupiers; Russian Bloggers Complain
In the aul (village) of Afipsip in Adygea, Circassians are preparing to erect a statue of Kizbechu Sheretluko, a Circassian who fought the Russian advance into the North Caucasus in
Jailed Environmentalist ‘Real Hero of Russia,’ Mitrokhin Says
Last week, Yevgeny Vitishko marked his 40th birthday in a Russian prison where he is serving a three-year sentence, because he exposed the environmental damage Vladimir Putin and his entourage
Moscow Opens Terrorist Training Base in Crimea, Cemilev Says
Ukraine’s intelligence service has identified five centers within the Russian Federation where Moscow is recruiting and training mercenaries and diversionists to work against Ukraine in the eastern portions of that
Moscow Behind Plans for Central Asian Energy Grid Bypassing Uzbekistan
Moscow is using much the same strategy to punish and rein in Tashkent for its pro-Western tilt that it has used against Kyiv: promoting separatism in Karakalpakstan (see EDM, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com,
Transcarpathian Rusin Leader ‘Does Not Exclude’ Using Force Against Kyiv
Most Ukrainians and international observers are focusing on Russia’s invasion of southeastern Ukraine or on the possibility that Moscow will use forces from Moldova’s Transnistria to create a “Novorossiya” (“New
Moscow Draws a Religious Line in the Sand in Ukraine
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says that the West is opposing Moscow in Ukraine because Russia is returning to Orthodoxy. Whereas other Russian commentators suggest that Moscow must fight in
From East-West to North-South: Moscow’s Actions in Ukraine Reignite Talk of a Baltic–Black Sea Union
For most of the last half-millennium, the lands between Moscow and Berlin have thought of themselves and been thought about by others almost exclusively in terms of an east-west axis,
Moscow to Send Draftees From Crimea to Russian Far East, and Ukrainian Turncoats to the North Caucasus
The Russian government, like its Soviet predecessor, has a long history of sending draftees to places far from their homes and using non-Russians as cannon fodder in conflicts of one
Looming Generational Change in Central Asian Leadership
Not for the first time, a website has reported the death or incapacitation of a Central Asian leader only to have the report swiftly taken down and denied (see the
Putin Too Clever by Half on Delaying Russian Referendum
Vladimir Putin has suggested that a referendum by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, hitherto scheduled for May 11, should be postponed (Kyiv Post, May 7). This suggestion is already winning
Despite Russian Attacks, Crimean Tatars and Mustafa Cemilev Will Not Retreat
In sharp contrast to his handling of Western leaders in the course of the Ukrainian crisis, Vladimir Putin and the Russian occupation authorities in Crimea have consistently underestimated the Crimean
Moscow Closes Okhotsk Sea to Outsiders
In a move that both exacerbates international conflicts in the Western Pacific and suggests how Moscow plans to proceed in the Arctic, Russian President Vladimir Putin has closed to all
Joining Islamic Conference Could Help Kyiv Defend Crimean Tatars
Mustafa Cemilev, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and leader of the Crimean Tatar movement, says that Kyiv will seek membership in the Organization for Islamic Cooperation (OIC—formerly called the
Chechen Population Set to Explode
Much has been made in Moscow and the West in recent months about falling fertility rates—the number of children per woman over a lifetime—among the Muslim nationalities of the North
Chechen Population Set to Explode
Much has been made in Moscow and the West in recent months about falling fertility rates—the number of children per woman over a lifetime—among the Muslim nationalities of the North
Moscow Using Sub-Ethnic Groups at Home and Abroad
Most Western analysts accept as fundamental the ethnic divisions that were reified by Soviet leaders and consider Moscow’s divide and rule strategy only in terms of them, focusing for example
Russian Occupiers Looting Crimean Museums
A Ukrainian parliamentarian has called for the United Nations to intervene and stop the looting of museums in Crimea by the Russian occupation authorities, an action that he says raises
Moscow Threatens Ukraine From the West
Following the Russian Anschluss of Crimea, most Ukrainian, Russian and Western commentary has focused on the possibility that Moscow will use a similar strategy to move into the predominantly ethnic-Russian
A Crimean Anschluss Threatens the Moscow Patriarchate
If Moscow absorbs Crimea, as now seems likely, this illegal act will pose a serious threat to the Moscow Patriarchate of the Russian Orthodox Church. Indeed, the annexation of Ukrainian
Crimean Crisis Increases Importance of Links Among Tatars
Moscow had hoped that the Kazan Tatars would promote the Russian Federation’s agenda in Crimea both by appealing to the Crimean Tatars for calm and by dispelling the latter’s fears
Is Surkov Readying a New Challenge to Kazan?
Vladislav Surkov, the Kremlin’s overseer of the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and a man who recently discussed building a bridge between Russia and Crimea that could serve
Immigrants Seen Triggering Clashes Along the Volga
The influx of migrant workers from Central Asia and the South Caucasus and of workers from the North Caucasus has triggered clashes in Moscow and other Russian cities, but soon
Kazan Tatar Call for Maidan in Russia Touches Moscow’s Deepest Fears
An article in a Russian online military journal reports that some Kazan Tatar nationalists and Islamists are calling for the launch of a Euromaidan-style protest movement inside the Russian Federation.
Fertility Rates in North Caucasus Falling and Growth Rates Soon Will as Well
Despite widespread fears and even hysteria among Russians, fertility rates—the number of children per lifetime per woman—are falling among the peoples of the North Caucasus and now approach those of
Fertility Rates in North Caucasus Falling and Growth Rates Soon Will as Well
Despite widespread fears and even hysteria among Russians, fertility rates—the number of children per lifetime per woman—are falling among the peoples of the North Caucasus and now approach those of
Balts Again on Collision Course With Moscow Over Georgia
Moscow commentators have already denounced the Baltic countries for supposedly helping to organize the Ukrainian revolution (windowrussia.ruvr.ru/2014_01_24/Baltijskij-sled-na-kievskom-evromajdane-5748/), and they have condemned Estonia, along with Finland, for supposedly stirring up the
Putin’s Dangerous Game: Promoting Nationalism at Home and Abroad
The nationalism of one nation almost inevitably comes into conflict with the nationalisms of others, precisely because its celebration of its uniqueness and even superiority inevitably offends those who have
Moscow Sees Northern Sea Route Vitiating Great Silk Road
When the Soviet Union disintegrated, many in Europe and the United States talked about building an updated version of the Great Silk Road to link China with Europe via the
In the Shadow of Sochi: The North Caucasus in 2013
Russian officials have repeatedly complained over the last 12 months that analysts in both Russia and the West will link, appropriately or not, everything that takes place in Russia before
In the Shadow of Sochi: The North Caucasus in 2013
Russian officials have repeatedly complained over the last 12 months that analysts in both Russia and the West will link, appropriately or not, everything that takes place in Russia before
Moving Central Asian Cossacks to North Caucasus Threatens Russians and Non-Russians Alike
A proposal by a Russian church leader in Stavropol to resettle the Semirechye Cossacks, who are seeking to move from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, to the North Caucasus has several damaging
Moving Central Asian Cossacks to North Caucasus Threatens Russians and Non-Russians Alike
A proposal by a Russian church leader in Stavropol to resettle the Semirechye Cossacks, who are seeking to move from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, to the North Caucasus has several damaging
Belarusians in the Russian Federation Increasingly Nationalistic
Many Russian and Western analysts have assumed that Belarusians and Russians are so similar ethnically that the nearly 1 million Belarusians living in the Russian Federation will inevitably identify with
Moscow’s Effort to Debunk Circassian ‘Genocide’ Backfires
Russian efforts to discredit Circassian arguments that that nation was subjected to an act of “genocide” by Tsarist forces in 1864 in Sochi, the site of next February’s Winter Olympiad,
Moscow’s Effort to Debunk Circassian ‘Genocide’ Backfires
Russian efforts to discredit Circassian arguments that that nation was subjected to an act of “genocide” by Tsarist forces in 1864 in Sochi, the site of next February’s Winter Olympiad,
The ‘Orenburg Corridor’ and the Future of the Middle Volga
If Joseph Stalin had not drawn “the so-called Orenburg corridor, which cut off Bashkortostan from the Kazakh SSR [Soviet Socialist Republic],” the editor of the independent Kazan weekly Zvezda Povolzhya
Tatarstan Has Long Had Its Own Foreign Policy
An article intended to discredit Tatarstan and the Tatars by suggesting that radical Islamists have made significant inroads in the Middle Volga has the unintended consequence of calling attention to
Kazakh Language Comes into Its Own
A press conference by a regional leader in Kazakhstan, unsurprisingly, seldom attracts much attention. But a recent such press briefing by Nurlan Nogayev, the akim (governor) of the Western Kazakhstan
Ever More Ethnic Russians are Becoming Islamist Militants
The October 21 suicide bombing of a Volgograd passenger bus was carried out, apparently, by a woman originally from the North Caucasian republic of Dagestan (see EDM, October 25). Nevertheless,
Ever More Ethnic Russians are Becoming Islamist Militants
The October 21 suicide bombing of a Volgograd passenger bus was carried out, apparently, by a woman originally from the North Caucasian republic of Dagestan (see EDM, October 25). Nevertheless,
Dagestan’s Plan to Bring Home Muslims Studying Abroad Unlikely to Work
Dagestani leader Ramazan Abdulatipov last week (October 14) directed the district and city anti-terrorist commissions in his North Caucasus republic to launch a campaign to recall all Dagestani young people
Dagestan’s Plan to Bring Home Muslims Studying Abroad Unlikely to Work
Dagestani leader Ramazan Abdulatipov last week (October 14) directed the district and city anti-terrorist commissions in his North Caucasus republic to launch a campaign to recall all Dagestani young people
Georgia Will Not Turn Away from the North Caucasus, Expert Says
Following the August 2008 Russia-Georgia war, President Mikheil Saakashvili took unprecedented steps to reach out to the North Caucasus (see EDM, May 9, 2012). His government launched multiple “soft power”
Georgia Will Not Turn Away from the North Caucasus, Expert Says
Following the August 2008 Russia-Georgia war, President Mikheil Saakashvili took unprecedented steps to reach out to the North Caucasus (see EDM, May 9, 2012). His government launched multiple “soft power”
Moscow Sees an Echo of Pre-War Prometheanism in Crimea
Moscow has always been extremely sensitive to any indication that the Polish government or Polish organizations are expanding their influence in the post-Soviet space through the support of ethnic minorities
Russia’s Muslims Increasingly Radicalized by Events in the Middle East
Russia’s Muslims continue to be radicalized not only by developments within their own community but increasingly by events in the Middle East, according to Yana Amelina, an analyst who works
Russia’s Muslims Increasingly Radicalized by Events in the Middle East
Russia’s Muslims continue to be radicalized not only by developments within their own community but increasingly by events in the Middle East, according to Yana Amelina, an analyst who works
Moscow Trumps Its Own Ethnic Card in Moldova
Moscow’s imposition of a wine embargo against Moldova as part of the Russian effort to dissuade Chisinau from pursuing closer ties with the European Union is not working as the
Is Chuvashia about to Trigger a New ‘Parade of Sovereignties?’
No protest demonstration or statement from the opposition generates as much concern in the Russian capital as any suggestion that the republics and regions of the Russian Federation may be
Uzbekistan Faces Civil War, Possible Disintegration, Tashkent Scholar Says
Over the past six weeks, the independent FerganaNews.com portal has conducted an online discussion, sparked by an article of the leader of the “Birdamlik” opposition movement, Bahordir Chorniyev, on the
Cossacks Now Patrol Half of Stavropol Krai: Police Adjuncts or Something More?
Cossack units are now patrolling the streets in 12 of the 26 districts of Stavropol krai as well as in Moscow and other Russian regions. Their presence suggests they are
Cossacks Now Patrol Half of Stavropol Krai: Police Adjuncts or Something More?
Cossack units are now patrolling the streets in 12 of the 26 districts of Stavropol krai as well as in Moscow and other Russian regions. Their presence suggests they are
Moscow Seen ‘Losing’ Ukraine and Belarus Just as It Earlier ‘Lost’ the Baltic Countries
By pursuing the short-term profit goals of Russian oligarchs out of the conviction that this will promote Russia’s interest rather than considering the possible impact of such an approach on
Kazan Denounced for Starting a New ‘Parade of Sovereignties’
Pro-Moscow activists and commentators have been universally critical of Tatarstan’s new nationality policy concept, a document adopted on August 1, which defines Kazan as the chief protector of Tatar national
Kazan Exploits Russia’s Nationality Policy in Ways Moscow Never Intended
Just as the Republic of Tatarstan did routinely under its former President Mintimer Shaimiev, Kazan has again taken a Moscow policy and transformed it in a way that is very
Circassians Mark 250th Anniversary of Resistance to Russian Aggression
Much has been and will be said about the 150th anniversary of the Circassian “genocide” by Russian forces that will be marked in 2014 when the site of that mass
Circassians Mark 250th Anniversary of Resistance to Russian Aggression
Much has been and will be said about the 150th anniversary of the Circassian “genocide” by Russian forces that will be marked in 2014 when the site of that mass
More Chechens Fleeing Chechnya ‘at Peace’ than Had Fled Chechnya ‘at War’
Nearly 10,000 Chechens have sought political asylum in Germany since the start of 2013, an unprecedented number that is nearly six times as great as the flow a year earlier—and
More Chechens Fleeing Chechnya ‘at Peace’ than Had Fled Chechnya ‘at War’
Nearly 10,000 Chechens have sought political asylum in Germany since the start of 2013, an unprecedented number that is nearly six times as great as the flow a year earlier—and
Are There in Fact ‘15,000 Radical Islamists’ in Crimea?
A retired Ukrainian intelligence officer who attracted attention a month ago by calling for the formation of a Russian-Ukrainian corps to fight for the Syrian government now claims that there
Crimea’s Post-1991 Autonomy ‘Not for Tatars but Against Them,’ Expert Says
A discussion sparked by calls from some Ukrainian nationalists to transform the Crimean Autonomous Republic into the 27th oblast of Ukraine has led to a remarkable admission by a Ukrainian
Turkey’s Crimean Tatars Reach Out to Their National Homeland
The leaders of the several-million-strong Crimean Tatar diaspora community in Turkey are increasingly focusing on Crimea. This trend encourages Crimean Tatars living in Crimea to conclude that they have an
Circassian Military Traditions Still Keeping Diaspora Strong
The 500,000 Circassians in the North Caucasus have long drawn strength and encouragement from the continuing vitality of the 5-million-strong Circassian diaspora in the countries of the Middle East. A
Circassian Military Traditions Still Keeping Diaspora Strong
The 500,000 Circassians in the North Caucasus have long drawn strength and encouragement from the continuing vitality of the 5-million-strong Circassian diaspora in the countries of the Middle East. A
Will Siberian Tatars Finally Win Recognition as a Separate Nation?
Just as was the case in Soviet times, ethnic groups in the Russian Federation have a chance to gain some collective benefits only if they receive official recognition by the
Cossack Separatism Again on the Rise
Sixty-eight years ago this week, the Western allies forcibly returned to the Soviet Union more than 2,000 Cossacks who fought on the German side against Stalin during World War II.
Paul Goble quoted by The Times of Central Asia
Paul Goble was quoted by The Times of Central Asia in an article about the politically volatile situation in Central Asia.
Nine Potential ‘Karabakhs’ in Central Asia Heating Up
That the ethnic and political borders in Central Asia do not correspond is widely recognized; but the region’s nine ethnic exclaves, territories within the borders of one country that are
Foreign-Backed Jihadist Movement in Kazakhstan Now Threatens Nearby States as Well
The jihadist network in Kazakhstan, inspired and financed by al-Qaeda, the Taliban and the Caucasus Emirate, has shifted from a loose grouping of largely autonomous jamaats into a unified movement
Crimean Tatars to Protest Ukrainian Actions on Deportation Anniversary
Tomorrow (May 18) marks the 69th anniversary of Joseph Stalin’s deportation of the Crimean Tatar nation from their homeland on trumped-up charges of collaboration with the Germans during World War
Could EU-Style ‘Ethno-Cultural Zones’ Reduce Tensions in the North Caucasus?
An increasing source of tension and conflict in the North Caucasus is the fear among many of the regional language communities that they face extinction through assimilation—a potentially explosive fear
Could EU-Style ‘Ethno-Cultural Zones’ Reduce Tensions in the North Caucasus?
An increasing source of tension and conflict in the North Caucasus is the fear among many of the regional language communities that they face extinction through assimilation—a potentially explosive fear
Tajikistan Now Jamming a Russian Radio Station
In yet another sign of growing tensions between the Russian Federation and Tajikistan, Dushanbe has begun jamming a Russian radio station located on the grounds of the Russian military base
Politicization of Islam in Crimea Threatens Peninsula’s Stability
Islam is being politicized in an unusual and somewhat unexpected way in Crimea. Certain Crimean Tatar leaders have been using the existence of Islamic groups on the peninsula to advance
Re-Opening the Talysh Question in Azerbaijan: Armenian, Iranian and Russian ‘Traces’
The launch of a Talysh-language radio station based in the Armenian-occupied territories but directed at the members of that ethnic minority elsewhere in Azerbaijan is part of the latest chapter
Moscow Puts Moldova’s Bulgarian Minority into Play Against Chisinau
For more than two decades, Moscow has exploited the tensions between Transnistria and Chisinau to try to bring Moldova to heel. More recently, it has sought to use Moldova’s Gagauz
Circassians Anticipate Russian Provocations before Sochi Games
A week ago (April 2), Georgian Defense Minister Irakly Alasania said he “does not exclude the possibility” that there will be terrorist acts in the run up to the Sochi
Circassians Anticipate Russian Provocations before Sochi Games
A week ago (April 2), Georgian Defense Minister Irakly Alasania said he “does not exclude the possibility” that there will be terrorist acts in the run up to the Sochi
Gagauzia’s Head Urges Russia, Turkey and Azerbaijan to Be Guarantors of Its Survival
Moscow’s latest moves against Moldova, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s call for opening a Russian consulate in Transnistria (politicom.moldova.org/news/russia-opening-a-consulate-in-transnistria-does-not-mean-recognizing-the-region-236048-eng.html), have attracted far more attention, but a speech by Mikhail Formuzal,
In North Caucasus, Ethnic Russians Worse Off Where There Are More of Them, Moscow Sociologist Says
According to a Moscow sociologist, ethnic Russians are “paradoxically” more likely to suffer from discrimination in those republics of the North Caucasus where there are more of them. This finding
In North Caucasus, Ethnic Russians Worse Off Where There Are More of Them, Moscow Sociologist Says
According to a Moscow sociologist, ethnic Russians are “paradoxically” more likely to suffer from discrimination in those republics of the North Caucasus where there are more of them. This finding
Another ‘Damn Thing in the Balkans’—the Russian Cossacks Come to Comrat
The appearance of a detachment of Russian Cossacks in Moldova’s Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia has not only unsettled some residents there but also spotlights Moscow’s efforts to use the
‘Tatarstanization’ of Russia Coming to an End, LDPR Activist Says
When the world was asking just over a decade ago “Who is Mr. Putin?” Mintimir Shaimiev, Tatarstan’s president at that time, said that “[Vladimir] Putin wants to do things in
Immigration Could Tear Russia Apart, Especially if Regions Adopt Their Own Approaches
Many Russians believe that the continuing influx of guest workers from Central Asia and the South Caucasus represents a security threat to their country either because of the supposed contributions
US, Chinese Plans for Rail Links with Central Asia Triggering ‘Railroad War’ and Reducing Russia’s Influence
United States plans to link the countries of Central Asia by new rail lines with Afghanistan. At the same time, Washington opposes neither the construction of a railway corridor from
‘Secret’ Mosque Case Agitates Stavropol, Goes Viral on Russian Internet
Just as a fight in a bar in the Karelian city of Kondopoga in August 2006 helped power a dramatic rise in ethnic Russian activism against immigrants from the Caucasus
‘Secret’ Mosque Case Agitates Stavropol, Goes Viral on Russian Internet
Just as a fight in a bar in the Karelian city of Kondopoga in August 2006 helped power a dramatic rise in ethnic Russian activism against immigrants from the Caucasus
Moscow Patriarchate Expands Missionary Work among Non-Russians, Setting the Stage for Conflicts with Muslim Nations
One of the least noted aspects of the just completed meeting of the leadership of the Moscow Patriarchate of the Russian Orthodox Church may prove to be the most significant
Russian Nationalists on Both Sides of North Caucasus Fight
Politics surely makes strange bedfellows: Some Russian nationalists now take positions on the North Caucasus that would logically lead to the independence that many non-Russian nationalists in that region seek—in
Russian Nationalists on Both Sides of North Caucasus Fight
Politics surely makes strange bedfellows: Some Russian nationalists now take positions on the North Caucasus that would logically lead to the independence that many non-Russian nationalists in that region seek—in
Moscow Puts Rights Groups in North Caucasus in ‘Mortal Danger’
The Russian government’s requirement that human rights organizations receiving financial assistance from abroad register as foreign agents and the unwillingness of Russian businessmen to cross the Kremlin by making up
Moscow Puts Rights Groups in North Caucasus in ‘Mortal Danger’
The Russian government’s requirement that human rights organizations receiving financial assistance from abroad register as foreign agents and the unwillingness of Russian businessmen to cross the Kremlin by making up
Why Russia’s Governors Are Speaking Out About Ethnic Problems
Last Thursday, facing a deteriorating ethnic situation in his own krai, Stavropol Governor Valery Zerenkov said that it was time to end “the policy of minimizing” such developments or ignoring
China’s Growing Political Role in the Caucasus
China’s economic role in the south Caucasus is expanding rapidly, with Beijing’s investments in Azerbaijan alone now approaching a total of one billion US dollars and its bilateral trade with
From Tripwire to Something More? Moscow Increases Military Readiness in the South Caucasus
Moscow has increased the size and activity of its flotilla on the Caspian Sea and the readiness of its Gyumri base in Armenia over the last several months. Russian officials
North Caucasus More Unstable and More Threatening to Moscow Now than a Year Ago
The North Caucasus is far more unstable and more threatening to Moscow’s control than it was a year ago, despite widespread acceptance of Vladimir Putin’s assertions to the contrary. There
North Caucasus More Unstable and More Threatening to Moscow Now than a Year Ago
The North Caucasus is far more unstable and more threatening to Moscow’s control than it was a year ago, despite widespread acceptance of Vladimir Putin’s assertions to the contrary. There
Putin’s Failure in the Middle Volga
Twenty years ago, in a now-classic study, “Gorbachev’s Failure in Lithuania,” historian Alfred Erich Senn documented the ways in which Mikhail Gorbachev failed to understand the diversity of challenges then
Tatarstan’s Interest in UN Membership Angers Moscow
The World Congress of Tatars, an organization created 20 years ago to link Tatarstan with ethnic Tatars living outside the borders of that Middle Volga republic and one that has
Bashkortostan Becomes Newest Russian ‘Hot Spot’
For the first time since the end of the Soviet Union, Moscow has dispatched internal troops to a republic outside the North Caucasus to suppress what it calls “nationalist band
2010 Census Shows Fewer Russians, More Non-Russians, and Many Who No Longer Declare an Ethnic Identity At All
According to recent census results, the rate of the overall decline in the population of the Russian Federation nearly doubled during the past decade compared to the rate over the
Activists in Middle Volga Protest Moscow’s Plans to End Obligatory Instruction in Non-Russian Languages
Activists in Chuvashia, Tatarstan and Bashkortostan went into the streets of the republic capitals on Saturday, December 1, with signs demanding that Moscow end its plans to drop obligatory instruction
Russians Fleeing Adygea, Threatening Moscow’s Control of Region
Since the end of Soviet times, the percentage of ethnic Russians in the Circassian republic of Adygea has fallen from 78 percent to 52 percent, the result of the dominance
Russians Fleeing Adygea, Threatening Moscow’s Control of Region
Since the end of Soviet times, the percentage of ethnic Russians in the Circassian republic of Adygea has fallen from 78 percent to 52 percent, the result of the dominance
Circassians Will Not Follow Abkhaz Example, Adyge Khase Leader Says
Asker Sokht, president of the Circassian “Adyge Khase” organization of Krasnodar Krai, said this week that his nation will not seek to realize its rights by violating the sovereignty and
Circassians Will Not Follow Abkhaz Example, Adyge Khase Leader Says
Asker Sokht, president of the Circassian “Adyge Khase” organization of Krasnodar Krai, said this week that his nation will not seek to realize its rights by violating the sovereignty and
Tatarstan Divides Along Ethnic Lines over Renaming Republic
A proposal to drop any reference to nationality in the names of the non-Russian republics of the Russian Federation has deeply divided Tatarstan, the largest and most influential of these
Will Georgia Continue to Seek to Influence Eurasian Countries?
Most of the non-Russian countries in the post-Soviet space have pursued foreign policies directed at defending their interests “in the framework of a limited geographic region,” two Russian analysts say.
Turkey Wants to Open a Transportation Corridor through Georgia to North Ossetia
Ankara wants to create a transportation corridor across Georgia to North Ossetia in order to establish links with regions of the Russian Federation and the states of Central Asia, Bulent
Russia Considering Restoring Soviet-Era Law on Psychiatry, Opening Door to Political Abuse
Russian psychiatrists are pressing the Duma to return the Soviet-era law on psychiatric assistance that allowed doctors at Moscow’s Serbsky Institute and elsewhere to indefinitely detain and treat people whose
Shaimiyev Criticizes Moscow for Seeking Return to Pre-Perestroika Relations
Mintimir Shaimiyev, the former president of Tatarstan whose views both reflect and help power the ideas of other non-Russian leaders, has issued a sweeping indictment of the current central Russian
Shaimiyev Criticizes Moscow for Seeking Return to Pre-Perestroika Relations
Mintimir Shaimiyev, the former president of Tatarstan whose views both reflect and help power the ideas of other non-Russian leaders, has issued a sweeping indictment of the current central Russian
Draft Language Law Could Ultimately End Non-Russian Language Instruction, Moscow Ethnographer Says
In the most serious attack on the status of the non-Russian republics and their titular nationalities since Soviet times, new legislation now under consideration in the Russian Duma would allow
Is the Kremlin Writing off Middle-Aged Russians?
The Kremlin has created a new “agitation and propaganda” (agitprop) administration, which will focus on the elderly, whom the regime hopes to influence or at least keep in its corner
Russian Exodus from the North Caucasus Continues
Ethnic Russians continue to leave the North Caucasus—albeit at a slower rate than in the 1990s—but it is an indication of just how far things have gone there. “About a
Russian Exodus from the North Caucasus Continues
Ethnic Russians continue to leave the North Caucasus—albeit at a slower rate than in the 1990s—but it is an indication of just how far things have gone there. “About a
‘The Opponents of Tatarstan Have Achieved Their Goal’
The Moscow media have been carrying out “a campaign to discredit” the political leadership of Tatarstan and undermine investment in that Middle Volga republic over the last six months, Damir-Khazrat
‘The Opponents of Tatarstan Have Achieved Their Goal’
The Moscow media have been carrying out “a campaign to discredit” the political leadership of Tatarstan and undermine investment in that Middle Volga republic over the last six months, Damir-Khazrat
The Vote in Georgia: Why Saakashvili Lost, Why Ivanishvili Won, and What This Means for the Future
The final results of the Georgian parliamentary elections were not announced yet when President Mikhail Saakashvili conceded that his party lost the majority of the vote; Bidzina Ivaanishvili has begun
Ending of Draft in North Caucasus Threatens Moscow’s Control of Russian Federation
The Kremlin’s decision to stop drafting young non-Russian men from the republics of the North Caucasus threatens Moscow’s control both of that region and of the Russian Federation as a
Ending of Draft in North Caucasus Threatens Moscow’s Control of Russian Federation
The Kremlin’s decision to stop drafting young non-Russian men from the republics of the North Caucasus threatens Moscow’s control both of that region and of the Russian Federation as a
Can Putin Once Again Exploit the North Caucasus in 2012?
In the course of 2011, the North Caucasus remained Russia’s most unsettled region but what is likely to prove more significant, it became a problem not only for Moscow, which
Can Putin Once Again Exploit the North Caucasus in 2012?
In the course of 2011, the North Caucasus remained Russia’s most unsettled region but what is likely to prove more significant, it became a problem not only for Moscow, which
The Most Important Development in the North Caucasus in 2010: Russians Begin Talking About Letting It Go
The most important development concerning the North Caucasus in 2010 did not occur there or even on the streets of Moscow. Rather, it took place in the minds of an
The Most Important Development in the North Caucasus in 2010: Russians Begin Talking About Letting It Go
The most important development concerning the North Caucasus in 2010 did not occur there or even on the streets of Moscow. Rather, it took place in the minds of an