Executive Summary: Talks in Istanbul between Russia and Ukraine on May 16 occurred under low expectations, resulting in high diplomatic posturing despite the discussions resulting in minimal progress Western leaders have pushed for a ceasefire, prompting renewed engagement from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is... MORE

Executive Summary: On May 16, in Istanbul, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met for the first time in more than three years of war to discuss a ceasefire. The Kremlin rejected this Western-backed initiative, countered with an old set of ceasefire preconditions, and introduced more insurmountable... MORE

Executive Summary: The Hungarian government launched a nationwide advisory referendum on Ukraine’s EU membership, while the ruling Fidesz-KDNP alliance launched the VOKS2025 campaign to rally the public against Kyiv’s potential accession to the European bloc. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, known for his pro-Russian stance,... MORE

Executive Summary: The second round of the Romanian presidential election on May 18 will be a battle for the country’s pro-Western direction. Romania’s constitutional court annulled the November 2024 election and banned ultranationalist Călin Georgescu from running in May after indications of illegal foreign interference... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgia’s entry at the Eurovision Song Contest this year, “Freedom,” is sung by Mariam Shengelia, who publicly supports the governing pro-Russian political party, Georgian Dream, and has performed at their events. The song has been criticized by Georgians and among fans internationally for... MORE

Executive Summary: Celebrations for the 80th anniversary of the Great Patriotic War were used to reinforce Russian President Vladimir Putin’s personal authority and militaristic agenda, recasting Russia’s war against Ukraine as a continuation of heroism from World War II. Ukraine rejected Putin’s three-day ceasefire initiative... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s shadow war against Poland combines low-level sabotage, insider espionage, informational warfare, and cyber‑attacks. Between 2010 and 2025, Polish authorities closed 30 subterfuge cases, leading to the arrests of 61 individuals—19 cases and 49 arrests since 2021—accounting for roughly 35 percent of Europe’s Russian-linked... MORE

Executive summary: Georgia may soon lose its visa-free travel to the European Union due to the country’s democratic backsliding, triggering widespread domestic and diplomatic reactions. Georgian opposition leaders support maintaining visa-free travel for citizens while urging the European Union to impose direct sanctions on the... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has shifted May 9 Victory Day celebrations from honoring the sacrifices of Soviet troops in World War II to a tool for justifying Russia’s war against Ukraine. Moscow’s attempts to monopolize “victory” over the Nazis ring hollow in Ukraine, whose own... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a unilateral ceasefire from May 8 to 11 in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Putin called on the Ukrainian side to observe the ceasefire, but noted that the Russian army would retaliate in case of violation. Ukrainian officials report... MORE