Executive Summary: Belarus is maneuvering to avoid being dragged directly into the hostilities in Ukraine, which has become Minsk’s main strategy since allowing Russian forces to launch the expanded invasion from Belarusian territory. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka stated: “Can we do it? No, we cannot”... MORE

Executive Summary: Leaders of Moldova’s Russophile parties recently launched a new political bloc at a congress in Moscow, heavily covered by Russian state media. The Kremlin aims to replace Moldova’s Western-oriented leadership with one loyal to Russia, ruling out the former model of Moldova balancing... MORE

Executive Summary: Neither Russia nor Ukraine will win or lose the war solely based on what happens at the front, rather, both Moscow and Kyiv seek to bring the war home to the other to gain an advantage. Each has attacked the other with bombs... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukrainian government passed a controversial law to strengthen mobilization as the military’s need to recruit soldiers grows in the face of an anticipated Russian offensive. As the war continues, Kyiv may have to turn to more extreme measures, such as mobilizing its... MORE

Executive Summary: The provision of US-made ATACMS and other Western long-range capabilities looks to enable Ukraine to strike military targets in Russian-occupied Crimea. The passage of the long-delayed US aid package has given Kyiv’s other Western partners momentum to commit more support to Ukraine as... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusians find themselves torn between two conflicting national agendas—one upheld by the state apparatus and the other championed by the opposition, many of whom are either exiled or imprisoned. The leaders of both political camps are exacerbating Belarus’s polarized political environment, alienating Belarusians... MORE

Executive Summary: Germany detained two suspected Russian agents for allegedly planning to sabotage military facilities while Russian propagandists deny the existence of an espionage network. Moscow appears to increasingly consider the West as its primary military adversary, supported by Russian political analysts shifting their focus... MORE

Executive Summary: Finland’s accession to NATO one year ago marked a significant fracture in Russian-Finnish relations, which have declined precipitously as Finland pledges consistent support to Ukraine. Helsinki and Kyiv signed a recent defense agreement that includes long-term military and financial assistance to build on... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian forces have enjoyed a string of successes in targeting energy facilities and military installations within Russia and the occupied territories. Kyiv’s “de-naftification” of Russia reflects Ukraine’s growing ability to bring the war home to Moscow, further enflaming societal discontent with Putin’s Kremlin.... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus tightened its mobilization legislation in April, suggesting that it might be taking steps to prepare for direct combat. The Belarusian military is simultaneously increasing its use of military equipment under the guise of exercises, purchasing more drones, and staffing brigades to wartime... MORE