Bahrain Remains Powder Keg for Iranian Proxy Conflict Brian M. Perkins Iranian involvement in the most prominent conflicts in the Middle East—particularly in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon—has dominated international headlines over the past several years while overshadowing Tehran’s hand in the smoldering, low-intensity conflict in... MORE

Even by the standards of Syria’s complicated war, October 2019 was a tumultuous month. The contradictions inherent in the U.S. effort to conduct a counter-terrorism war against the Islamic State (IS) divorced from the realities of the underlying conflict erupted into view. Trump announced the... MORE

Russia’s Security Council (SC) secretary, Nikolai Patrushev, penned a policy article published on November 11, in the government-run Rossiyskaya Gazeta. The piece covers the Russian military, long-term (up to 2035) economic and political threat assessments, as well as issues related to strategic planning (Rossiyskaya Gazeta,... MORE

Executive Summary Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri’s long-game strategy has created international networks with the ultimate intention of creating a united Islamic Emirate to take the place of the lost Ottoman Caliphate, across a continuous band from Turkistan to the Atlantic coast. [1] Bruce Hoffman brought... MORE

Stability has always been the main promise legitimizing Vladimir Putin’s monopolization of political power in Russia. Restoration of stability was the winning slogan for Putin in 2012, in claiming the presidency back from his pliant stand-in, Dmitry Medvedev, who had tried to experiment with modernization.... MORE

Al-Qaeda Likely to Exploit Baghdadi’s Death Brian M. Perkins The death of Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is being hailed as a victory by al-Qaeda, which stands to benefit significantly from his death. While Baghdadi’s death is unlikely to see the collapse of... MORE

Dozens have been killed and hundreds injured in the ongoing wave of street protests in Baghdad and the predominantly Shia provinces of southern Iraq. Protesters are demanding jobs, reform, and a real shake-up of the political system. The political ruling class is undoubtedly unsettled by... MORE

Al-Qaeda has had a bumpy relationship with the jihadists in Syria since the beginning of the civil war. The al-Nusra Front, which was the extension of the Islamic State of Iraq into Syria, split from Islamic State (IS) and declared its allegiance to the global... MORE

Introduction At the end of August, Islamic Republic of Iran (IRIN) Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif visited Beijing for what appeared to be a routine visit. However, soon after the visit, it was reported in the media that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) had agreed... MORE

On the morning of November 9, 2016, when the surprising news hit Moscow about Hillary Clinton conceding the presidential race in the United States to Donald Trump, there was spontaneous celebration in the Russian parliament (see EDM, November 10, 2016). Champagne was uncorked and flamboyant... MORE