Executive Summary: ISWAP has launched an unprecedented wave of raids on Nigerian military supercamps, signaling a shift in momentum and a potential end to the long-standing stalemate in northeastern Nigeria. The group’s recent successes—especially the May 4 Buni Gari raid—highlight its growing operational capacity and... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s plans to create a naval base on the Sudanese coast of the Red Sea have been upset by drone attacks launched on Port Sudan in early May. Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces claimed responsibility for the attack. The destruction of Port Sudan’s infrastructure... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced plans in February to increase Russian involvement in Africa, as Russia’s Deputy Minister of Economic Development, Dmitry Volvach, expects that Russian-African trade will double in the next five years.  Russia is expanding its influence in Africa through... MORE

Executive Summary:   Russia’s rehabilitation of an abandoned airbase in the Libyan desert offers an opportunity to create a reliable line of supply to Russian forces operating in West Africa.  A Russian military presence close to the borders of Egypt, Sudan, and Chad could make... MORE

Executive Summary: Ongoing pressure by Nigerian security services and Sunni militants may be pushing the country’s small Shia population toward Iran. Nigeria’s Shia, who comprise some 1.3 percent of the total population, are likely to be influenced by Iran through members of the Lebanese diaspora... MORE

Executive Summary: Investigations of Hezbollah’s financing network over the last several years have identified three major funders of the terror group: Mohammad Bazzi, Talal Chahine, and Nazem Ahmad. The arrest of the former two and the destruction of the third’s network is expected to significantly... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is pursuing the construction of a naval port on Sudan’s Red Sea coast, reflected in the finalization of an agreement between Russia and Sudan in February. The deal appears to be part of the Kremlin's efforts to create new strategic assets in... MORE

Executive Summary: Mercenaries have existed since ancient times but have evolved into modern private military and security companies (PMSCs) focusing on training, logistics, and protection, especially in Western practices. Russian private military companies (PMCs) and Chinese private security companies (PSCs), however, operate differently from both... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing promotes digital sovereignty in its engagements with other countries but with the caveat that it can maintain access to partner countries’ digital systems. Leaked documents from cyber contracting firm iS00N indicate a focus on One Belt One Road partner countries, targeting critical... MORE

Executive Summary: In late July, the Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) claimed responsibility for an attack in Benin outside of its traditional areas of operation. JNIM propaganda from this and another operation in the weeks that followed showed the capture of weapons... MORE