Executive Summary: The July attack by Tuareg rebels in Mali that killed Malian government troops and Wagner Group mercenaries has been connected to Ukraine, causing substantial international backlash for Kyiv. The death of multiple members of Mali’s army in the attack would mean Ukraine was... MORE

Executive Summary: Since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Kyiv has been working to counter Russian influence in Africa and expand its own by doubling its embassies on the continent and increasing aid. Most African countries remain neutral because Ukraine is a major grain supplier.... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has established a framework of authority and values that fosters voluntary compliance from subordinate states, as exemplified by the Solomon Islands’ recent diplomatic alignment with Beijing, abandoning recognition of Taiwan in favor of the PRC. The PRC... MORE

Executive Summary: Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) took over Kpekakandi Base in northern Togo on July 20. This represents an expansion of the group’s operational focus in the area toward Togo, moving beyond their primary zone of activity along Burkina Faso’s border... MORE

Executive Summary: On July 27, the Wagner Group, the notorious Russian private military company (PMC), suffered substantial losses while stationed in Mali to combat terrorist threats in the region. Kyiv’s Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense (GUR) issued a statement linking Ukraine to the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is seeking to augment the ranks of its Africa Corps by recruiting militants from African separatist groups. More broadly, it appears that countries are increasingly turning to private military organizations to secure their interests in Africa. Other countries are also following Russia's... MORE

Executive Summary: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continues to struggle to remove M23 rebels from its eastern provinces despite military aid and the assistance of UN troops and European mercenaries. The current UN peacekeeping mission is expected to withdraw by the end of... MORE

Executive Summary: April 2024 marked the first anniversary of the Sudanese civil war, with the risk of Sudan re-emerging as a hub for jihadist terrorism in Africa on the rise. Some elements of the Sudanese Armed Forces under General al-Burhan are believed to have close... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has reconsidered its support for the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces, throwing more weight behind the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Transitional Sovereignty Council. The move serves to align Moscow’s position more closely with that of Iran, seeks to dampen the SAF’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Once thought a vestige of the past, Eastern European mercenaries have returned to Africa under the leadership of Romanian Horațiu Potra. Potra runs a private military company (PMC) composed of other Romanian former members of the French Foreign Legion. Both Potra and his... MORE