Executive Summary Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) granting Ethiopia access to build a naval base on Somaliland's coast. This was offered in exchange for Ethiopia recognizing Somaliland as an independent state, drawing condemnation from al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab has failed to establish itself... MORE

Executive Summary: President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, nicknamed “President Wagner,” of the Central African Republic (CAR) welcomed the Wagner Group in 2018 but is now “in the process of diversifying its relations.” Wagner’s influence in the CAR has waned following the Prigozhin mutiny despite reassurances from Russian... MORE

Executive Summary The Mozambican army has declared the Islamic State affiliate active in its country effectively "defeated," with only 200 to 250 active fighters remaining. While Islamic State in Mozambique may be significantly degraded, it could capitalize upon the planned withdrawal of the Southern African... MORE

Executive Summary While Boko Haram is the most widely known security threat in Nigeria, the total number of deaths connected to violent banditry in northwestern Nigeria now rivals those caused by Boko Haram at its violent "peak" in 2015. Banditry is traditionally thought of as... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent tour of North Africa focused on maintaining economic ties while seeking to expand the Kremlin’s political influence in the region. The Kremlin has been successful in expanding trade ties with Morocco and Tunisia by exploiting both countries’... MORE

Executive Summary Boko Haram and its ISWAP faction have been locked in a stalemate with the Nigerian military. The group may only seek to preserve the status quo rather than risk provoking a major army offensive. The stalemate has persisted since 2014. ISWAP briefly expanded... MORE

Executive Summary Mohammad Ibrahim Bazzi is a prominent Hezbollah financier who operated money laundering schemes across Europe, West Africa, and the Middle East. He was arrested in Romania in February 2023 and subsequently extradited to the United States. The arrest of Bazzi and several other... MORE

On December 4, Niger announced the “strengthening of military cooperation” with Russia, the latest in a series of shifts toward the Russian sphere of influence by post-coup Sahelian states on the basis of counter-terrorism (Africa News, December 4). The announcement came after a Russian delegation... MORE

After eight months of brutal warfare, Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) now appear to have the upper hand against the better-armed Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). Led by Muhammad Hamdan Daglo “Hemedti,” the RSF has conducted a highly mobile campaign against the SAF’s reactive and defensive... MORE

Executive Summary Along with their clear internal (domestic) needs, Chinese private security companies (PSCs) have been spotted operating in virtually all major regions around the world. These entities currently play a marginal role in the promotion and protection of Chinese interests abroad, though they will... MORE