Pavel Luzin
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Articles by Pavel Luzin
The Kremlin’s Narratives for Its War Against Ukraine
Since February 2022, the Kremlin has been trying to clearly present the purpose and thinking behind its all-out aggression against Ukraine. The Russian authorities’ narratives began with President Vladimir Putin’s
The Political Considerations Behind Russia’s Military Command Chaos
On January 11, the Russian Ministry of Defense once again changed the command structure of the Russian forces fighting against Ukraine. Army General Valery Gerasimov (born in 1955), former chief
Russia’s Nagging Arms Production Problems
While the issues with arms manufacturing in Russia have been covered in a number of analyses, production remains a serious challenge for the Russian defense industry as the Kremlin continues
The Skyrocketing Costs for Russia’s War Effort
The final deficit of the Russian federal budget for 2022 appeared to be 3.35 trillion rubles, almost $48.8 billion according to the average exchange rate during the year. Although, the
The Russian Armed Forces on Steroids
Since January 1, the ceiling of military personnel in the Russian Armed Forces has been increased from 1,013,628 to 1,150,628 service members (Kremlin.ru, August 25, 2022), which exceeds the ceiling
Russia’s Military Space Program: 2022 Results
During 2022, Russia launched 14 military satellites: three navigation satellites, two GLONASS-K1 satellites and the last GLONASS-M satellite; two electronic Lotos-S1 intelligence satellites; three inspector satellites, Cosmos-2558, launched in August,
Russia’s Strange Combination of Conscription and Mobilization
It is still three weeks before the fall conscription campaign in Russia ends. This conscription hopes to draft 120,000 new soldiers for all branches of the Russian Armed Forces, including
Russia’s Defense Industry Growing Increasingly Turbulent
Moscow has actively tried to restore at least part of its arms lost in Ukraine after almost nine months of its bloody war. Publicly, the Kremlin declares that nothing crucially
Russian UAVs: What Has Gone Wrong?
Since the beginning of its large-scale aggression against Ukraine, Russia has demonstrated relatively poor capabilities regarding its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), much poorer than one would expect given the extensive
Is Mobilization Really Over in Russia?
On October 28, Russia announced the successful end of its “partial mobilization” campaign. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu declared that 300,000 soldiers had been mobilized, with 13,000 volunteers among them.
The Kremlin’s Economic Mobilization
Following the “partial mobilization” of the Russian populace, huge losses in arms, as well as economic and budgetary imbalances, Moscow is facing the inevitable prospect of a complete economic mobilization.
Russian Air Power: Vanished or Overstated to Begin With?
Since the beginning of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine on February 24, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have not been able to demonstrate success, despite the huge modernization and rearmament efforts
Pariah Armed Forces and Russia’s ‘Party of War’
As the combat situation for Russian forces in Ukraine continues to worsen and as political tensions grow within and around the Kremlin, Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of Chechnya, publicly criticized
Russia’s Skyrocketing Defense Spending, 2022–2023
Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine and the Kremlin’s attempts to escalate the political situation and prevent defeat on the battlefield through mobilization, nuclear blackmail and possibly even sabotage on gas
Mobilization as a Triumph of Political Eschatology
The first week of the “partial mobilization” in Russia, which started on September 21, has demonstrated rampant bureaucratic chaos, a lack of planning and a deficit of training facilities and
The Impossible Mobilization
On September 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on partial mobilization (Kremlin.ru, September 21) and issued a public statement in which he claimed that the Russian Armed Forces
Challenges to Russian Arms Resupply: Tanks, Combat Aviation, Artillery Ammunition
After more than four months of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, open-source data confirms that the Russian Armed Forces lost, at a minimum, over 830 tanks and 1,650 different types of
Russian Challenges in Missile Resupply
After more than three months of its undeclared war of aggression against Ukraine, Russia fired over 2,100 cruise missiles and short-range ballistic missiles at targets inside the embattled country. Now
Russia’s Space Satellite Problems and the War in Ukraine
Three months into Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, the role of Russian military reconnaissance and communications satellites remains noticeably underdeveloped. Although Moscow has 102 military satellites in orbit,
Pavel Luzin Quoted by Yahoo! News Concerning Russia’s Failure to Establish Air Superiority
On May 10, Yahoo! News quoted Jamestown Analyst Pavel Luzin for an article concerning Russia's failure to achieve air superiority.
Russia’s Space Program in Wartime and Beyond
The Kremlin’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, launched on February 24, became a game changer for the Russian space program. Western sanctions, adopted in response to the war, have thrown Russia’s
Jamestown Board Member Gen. Philip M. Breedlove (ret.) and Jamestown Analyst Dr. Pavel Luzin Interviewed by The New York Times on Russia’s Military Modernization
On January 27, The New York Times published an article concerning Russia's military modernization and its impact on the Ukraine crisis. In the article, Jamestown Board Member, General Philip M. Breedlove
Russia’s ASAT Test: Motivations and Implications
Russia conducted its first kinetic satellite interception on November 15, 2021. A ground-based (presumably silo-based) missile was launched from the Plesetsk launch site and targeted the dead Soviet military satellite
Russia’s Race for Hypersonic Weapons
The global race for hypersonic weapons, or at least for technologies to reach hypersonic velocity, undoubtedly goes on. Russia is paying close attention to the research, development and testing of
The Commercial Space Sector and Russia’s Space Strategy
Even as the commercial space sector grows quickly in the United States as well as in Europe, China, Japan, India and other countries, Russia continues to lack a robust approach
Roscosmos Suffers From Russia’s Confrontation With the US
Dmitry Rogozin, the head of the Russian state-owned space corporation Roscosmos, confirmed during parliamentary hearings earlier this month that Western sanctions have damaged Russia’s space and orbital activities (Roscosmos.ru, June
Russia’s Approach to Nuclear Power in Outer Space
Russia has been conducting research and development (R&D) on using nuclear power in outer space for years. On May 22, Alexander Bloshenko, executive director for advanced programs and science of
Russian-Chinese Cooperation in Space
On March 9, Russia and China signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the construction of an international lunar research station (ILRS) (Roscosmos.ru, March 9). Though there is no
GLONASS Program for 2021–2030
In January, Russia started a new federal ten-year program for developing a GLONASS dual-use satellite navigation system. Its main goal, and challenge, is to replace the old generation of satellites
Russia’s Land-Based Cruise Missiles as a Political Tool
With future prospects for the nuclear arms control regime uncertain and the Kremlin unable to play its traditional political game of summitting with Western leaders due to the COVID-19 pandemic
Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: The Kremlin’s Wild Card
A recent interview in Kommersant with Marshall Billingslea, the special presidential envoy for arms control who represents the United States in negotiations with Russia on the extension of the New
Cosmos ASATs and Russia’s Approach to Space Weapons
In recent years, Russia repeatedly demonstrated the increasingly advanced orbital maneuvering capabilities of its satellites by conspicuously moving them closer to Russian, United States and European orbital space assets. These
The Influence of the Pandemic on Russia’s Defense Industry
The COVID-19 pandemic has plunged the world into a recession and damaged global supply chains. Russia’s defense industry has not been immune to these disruptive processes, and it came under
Prospects for Future US-Russia Space Cooperation
After nine years of the United States relying entirely on Russian Soyuz rockets to deliver astronauts into orbit, this dependency finally ended on May 30, 2020, with the successful launch
The Doomed Treaty: Russia’s Position on Prolonging New START
The Donald Trump administration has signaled that it is not interested in prolonging the New START strategic nuclear weapons limitation treaty after its expiration in February 2021, expressing the need
Multiple Challenges Hinder Russian Efforts to Modernize Its Satellite Navigation System
Russia’s constellation of GLONASS navigation satellites are part of a dual-use system—available to both civilian users and the military. Moscow began deploying it during the 1980s–1990s, but its initial capabilities