Pavel Luzin
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Articles by Pavel Luzin
Assessment of Gunpowder and Explosives Manufacturing in Russia
Executive Summary: Gunpowder production in Russia nearly doubled from 2022 to 2024 due to increased imports and domestic manufacturing of cotton cellulose nitrate. This rise suggests a potential doubling in
Russian Attack on Ukraine Becomes Another Attempt at Intimidation
Executive Summary: Russia launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against Ukraine for the first time on November 21, targeting the city of Dnipro and Ukraine’s military-industrial complex in retaliation
There Should Not Be a Ceasefire Deal with Russia
Executive Summary: Russia remains committed to its long-term strategic goals as it continues its war in Ukraine, including undermining US global influence, fracturing Trans-Atlantic unity, and aligning with authoritarian regimes,
Arms Manufacturing in Russia in January–September 2024 Demonstrates No Growth
Executive Summary: The Russian industrial output index comparing January–September 2024 to January–September 2023 is 104.4 percent, demonstrating economic growth when considering the data in rubles. The inflation of the ruble
Ukraine Needs Its Own Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles
Executive Summary: Ukraine’s current military strategy, particularly in its use of long-range drones and limited supplies of advanced missiles such as ATACMS and Storm Shadows, faces critical constraints in effectively
Russian Army Recruitment Hangs Between Coercion and Deception
Executive Summary: The Russian government passed a law that enables the recruitment to the Russian Armed Forces of people under arrest and facing a criminal investigation, even prior to a
Russia Releases Proposed Military Budget for 2025
Executive Summary: Moscow released the draft proposal for Russia’s federal budget for 2025 and 2026–2027, which shows that the national defense budget will increase significantly from previous years, especially in
Russia Faces Significant Future Deficit in Officers Corps
Executive Summary: Russia aims to increase its armed forces to 1.5 million personnel, largely to justify higher military spending. The Kremlin, however, faces difficulties achieving this target, as the war
Launch Site of Russia’s Mythical Nuclear-Powered ‘Burevestnik’ Cruise Missile Allegedly Found
Executive Summary: Two American researchers claim they discovered the future launch site for the Russian nuclear-powered intercontinental-range cruise missile “Burevestnik.” This is unlikely, as it does not appear to be
Ukraine’s Kursk Operation Demonstrates Russia’s Dysfunctional Authoritarianism
Executive Summary: The Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast has highlighted the Kremlin’s lack of preparation for Ukrainian military advancements into Russian territory through its repositioning of troops and reliance
Rostec’s Updated 2023 Financial Data Shows Decline in Revenue
Executive Summary: Rostec, Russia’s state-owned military-industrial corporation, revised its financial data for 2023, initially presented in May, and handed over this new data to Russian President Vladimir Putin on July
Russia’s Arms Manufacturing in January–June 2024
Executive Summary: Russia’s State Statistics Agency, Rosstat, reported increased growth in arms manufacturing industries during the first half of 2024. However, this growth is less impressive when considering physical manufacturing
Russia’s Kurganmashzavod Factory Data Shows the Limits of BMP-3 Production Rates
Executive Summary: A recent report from the Royal United Services Institute shows data on the production rates of Russian arms, including the manufacturing of BMP-3 armored vehicles from the Kurganmashzavod
The Dubious Future of Russia’s Proposed Orbital Station
Executive Summary: Key Roscosmos executives have signed and approved a schedule for the deployment of a new Russian orbital station, ROS, which is planned to be deployed by the early
Workforce Shortages Plague Russian Arms Manufacturing
Executive Summary: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov recently claimed that 520,000 workers have been added to the country’s military-industrial complex since the beginning of 2023, though he conceded that
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov’s Team Sees New Players
Executive Summary: The Russian Defense Ministry has seen numerous new appointments over the past few months, including the May appointment of new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and the replacement of
Putin Participates in Russian Propaganda’s ‘Active Measures’
Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s sharing of the number of contracted soldiers, prisoners, and losses, as well as yield of Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons demonstrate that he is an
Rostec 2023 Financial Data Illustrates State of Russian Military-Industrial Complex
Executive Summary: The head of Russian state-owned military-industrial corporation Rostec released the company’s 2023 annual corporate report, providing insights into the state of the Russian military-industrial complex. There is no
Russian Ministry of Defense Conducts ‘Great Purge’
Executive Summary: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is currently purging numerous military officers and MoD officials in an alleged “anti-corruption” campaign. The political motivation for these attacks is unclear,
Belousov Appointed as Russian Minister of Defense
Executive Summary: On May 12, Moscow replaced Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with Russian economist and former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov. Belousov’s appointment is likely geared at optimizing military
Russia’s Satellite Constellation Deteriorates, Increasing Dependency on China
Executive Summary: Russia’s dual-use Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) is running into roadblocks due to technological deterioration, freeing Moscow to become more aggressive in space affairs. The Russian space industry
Arms Manufacturing in Russia: Q1 2024
Executive Summary: Russia’s State Statistics Service’s (Rosstat) newly published data on the military-industrial complex in Q1 2024 demonstrates limitations for arms production. The increase in some manufactured goods is in
Russia’s Space Industry Struggles to Compete With US Commercial Space Strategy
Executive Summary: Moscow now likely considers US commercial space assets as part of Washington’s military infrastructure following the Department of Defense’s issuance of the 2024 Commercial Space Integration Strategy. Russia’s
The Kremlin Struggles to Maintain Public Support for ‘Long War’
Executive Summary: Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov recently declared that Russia has been “at war” ever since the West began supporting Ukraine with arms in deviating from the “special military
Shoigu Has Promised Combined Armies, Divisions, and Brigades
Executive Summary: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the creations of a new army corps, motor rifle division, and Dnipro River flotilla, along with the establishment of 30 large unspecified
Russia Exhausts Soviet-Era Arms Storage Bases
Executive Summary: Russia has proposed a pause of the fighting in Ukraine in exchange for strategic arms and space negotiations with the West. The Russian armed forces have been taking
Russia Reorganizes Military Districts
Executive Summary: The Kremlin announced a transformation of its military districts to “buy” loyalty from its officer corps and organize its military with to prepare for war on and beyond
The Future of Roscosmos Unclear as Challenges Mount
Executive Summary: Russia’s space program faces significant challenges, including heavy financial losses and a growing reliance on imported electronics Roscosmos aims to develop its own space station and launch vehicles,
Rumors Spread of Russia’s Prospective Use of Nuclear Weapons in Outer Space
Executive Summary: Russia has acknowledged its inability to compete with the West in space and is looking for solutions to shore up the weaknesses of its space program. Moscow views
Putin’s ‘Active Measures’ and Hidden Discussion Between the Kremlin and Military
Executive Summary: Discrepancies between Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims and reality regarding the size and productivity of the Russian military-industrial complex are becoming more apparent as the war in Ukraine
Kremlin Exaggerates Production of Russian Arms Manufacturing in 2023
Executive Summary: Russia’s military-industrial complex showed only modest growth in 2023. The manufacturing output index’s increase does not reflect a proportional rise in actual production. The physical output of essential
Production Issues in Aircraft Industry Highlight Degradation of Russian Military-Industrial Complex
Executive Summary: The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) achieved a net profit of 6.1 billion rubles in the first half of 2023, compared to a net loss of 13.3 billion rubles
Chinese Machine Tools Serve as Russia’s Safety Net
Executive Summary: Russia’s industrial sector has become full dependent on China for machine tools and parts critical to arms manufacturing. Moscow’s war against Ukraine, Western sanctions, and the inability to
Russia’s Military-Industrial Complex Struggles With High Employee Turnover
At the end of last year, it was becoming increasingly apparent that Russian industry was struggling with flagging production rates and a shortage of technical personnel (see EDM, September 21,
Russian Armed Forces Remain Severely Understaffed
The true organizational state of the Russian Armed Forces has been a “black box” since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The exact number of troops at the
The Russian Military’s Inflation Paradox
On November 27, President Vladimir Putin signed into law the Russian federal budget for 2024–26 and planning period for 2025–26. As part of the budget, national defense spending for 2024
Lagging Production of Machine Tools and Parts Plagues Russian Military-Industrial Complex
Russia has consistently spread dubious claims that defense production remains on track to achieve Moscow’s increased targets in providing increased support for the Russian war effort in Ukraine (see EDM,
The Kremlin Prepares for Winter in Ukraine
Many observers of Russia’s war against Ukraine have been discussing what they term “an impending stalemate” on the battlefield (Kyiv Post, August 28; Euromaidan Press, November 4; The Moscow Times,
Russia’s Manned Space Program Disrupted by War in Ukraine
On November 7, the chief designer for Russia’s manned space systems, Vladimir Solovyov, proclaimed that the planned Russian Orbital Station (ROS) “will have a service life of 50 years” (TASS,
Third Quarter Arms Production Undermines the Kremlin’s Narrative
In September, Moscow announced its plans to dramatically increase defense spending by the end of the year, with some estimating a 70-percent increase for that budget (see EDM, October 5).
A Weakening Russia Becomes a Dangerous Paradox
While Kremlin leadership is trying to ignore the combat situation in Ukraine with, for example, an unnecessary sports festival in Perm, it has not given up on Russia’s goal to
Russia Moves to Cancel Ratification of Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty
On October 6, Russia voiced its intentions to cancel ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which Moscow signed in 1996 and officially ratified in 2000. Russian President Vladimir Putin
Russia Struggles to Manage Defense and Security Budgets
At the end of September 2023, a draft of the Russian federal budget for 2024 and the 2025–26 planning period was introduced to the State Duma. Fiscal revenues for 2024
Russia Toys With Statistics on Contracted Soldiers
On September 26, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev announced that the Russian Armed Forces have recruited more than 325,000 contracted soldiers since January 1. Based on
Dubious Russian Claims of ‘Doubling’ Arms Production
On September 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered comments on the state of Russian defense production at a meeting of Russia’s Military-Industrial Commission in Izhevsk. Putin declared that the production
Russia’s Drone Industry Hits Serious Turbulence
Russia’s war against Ukraine has challenged its military’s approach to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and the Russian industrial base that supports the development and production of UAVs. According to open-source
Western Sanctions and Personnel Shortages Plague Russia’s Aircraft Industry
On August 29, a new version of Russian commercial aircraft, the SJ-100 (formerly known as the SSJ-100), completed its first flight. The main difference between the new SJ-100 and the
Russia’s Uncertain Aims for Moon Exploration
On August 11, Russia launched its long-delayed Luna-25 mission to the Moon, with the probe aiming to land on the lunar surface in the coming days (TASS, August 11). The
Russian Arms Production Q2 2023
According to recent leaks, Russian national defense spending surpassed 5.59 trillion rubles (more than $72.2 billion) for the first six months of 2023. The overall annual budget for the year
New Draft and Mobilization Rules in Russia: Increased Coercion
On July 25, the Russian State Duma finally passed two laws that increase the age range for draft-eligible Russian men from 18–26 years old to 18–29 years old and that
Where Can the Kremlin Go for New Officers?
Since June 2023, Russia has lost two generals during the fighting in Ukraine: Major General Sergei Goryachev, chief of staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army, and Lieutenant General Oleg
Jamestown Senior Fellow Pavel Luzin Quoted by The Moscow Times on Russian Tactics in Ukraine
Jamestown Foundation Senior Fellow Pavel Luzin was interviewed by The Moscow Times regarding Russia's use of Soviet-era tanks as vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices. "Can terrorists use a car filled with
The Further Degradation of the Russian Army
Several demonstrative developments reveal that the political positions of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) leadership remain intact for now, despite these officials’ poor performance in responding to the Wagner
Moscow in Urgent Search of New Space Partners
Russia is searching for new long-term partnerships in outer space instead of relying on cooperation with the United States, Europe, Canada and Japan. Recently, Yuri Borisov, head of state-owned Roscosmos,
Jet Engines and Commercial Aviation: Key Indicators for Russian Arms Manufacturing
Russia’s military industry continues to bolster efforts to increase arms production in the face of strangling Western sanctions. The results of these efforts have been doubtful considering the engagement of
Communication Entropy in the Kremlin vs. Putin’s Information Isolation
On June 13, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the war correspondents from a number of state-owned and state-affiliated television channels and newspapers, as well as several Telegram “military-patriotic” bloggers.
The True State of Russian Arms Manufacturing, June 2023
In recent weeks, Russia’s military leadership has wholly changed its rhetoric regarding domestic arms manufacturing and the country’s military-industrial complex. From the nervous statements and even threats made to the
Tricky Recruiting in Russia: 2023 Spring Conscripts and Volunteers
In 2023, regular spring conscription for military service in Russia started on April 1 and will end on July 15. The stated goal for this round of conscription is 147,000
Succession in Russia?
On May 26, during an episode of one of the countless political shows on state-run Russian television, Boris Nadezhdin, a local politician from Dolgoprudny near Moscow and former member of
The Nuclear Sequence of the Belgorod Raid
The hit-and-run raid by anti-Putin Russian operatives—Kyiv officially claims that the raid was conducted by combatant units made up of Russian citizens, while Moscow claims it was the work of
Russia’s Estimated Storage of Cruise Missiles, May 2023
The massive Russian missile attacks against Ukraine in recent days together with evidence of the increasing efficiency of Ukraine’s air and missile defense make it necessary to re-examine the state
Russian Arms Production for Q1 2023
The published Pentagon’s leaks in April 2023 coupled with additional evidence of the growing deficit in arms for the Russian Armed Forces, from the pathetic Victory Day’s parade on Red
Russia’s Changing Navy
As a result of recently proposed reforms, the Russian Navy’s four fleets—Pacific, Northern, Baltic and Black Sea—as well as the Caspian Flotilla would become directly subordinate to the central headquarters
A ‘Revolution’ in Military Recruitment for Russia
On April 11, the Russian parliament passed a draft law that can be considered a “revolution” in the way Moscow conducts recruitment for the Russian Armed Forces (Sozd.duma.gov.ru, April 11).
Spring 2023 Outlook for Russian Arms Manufacturing
Moscow continues its struggle in trying to increase production rates for its arms manufacturers and in restoring the storage of arms lost after over 13 months of fighting against Ukraine.
Russia’s Mystery of Missile Defense
On March 22, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu declared that Russia will complete the modernization of the missile defense system around Moscow by the end of 2023. He also
Russia’s Crisis of Restoring Manpower
On March 13, a draft law on increasing the age of conscription for military service in Russia was introduced to the State Duma. The planned increase, from 18 to 26
Russia’s Questionable Naval Modernization During Wartime
The Russian Navy’s participation in the war against Ukraine has been mostly limited to the Black Sea Fleet and Caspian Flotilla. Yet, even with these limitations, Russia has still lost
Why Did Russia Suspend the New START Treaty?
On February 21, Russia suspended its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START Treaty) of 2010, which had been prolonged in January 2021 until 2026 (Kremlin.ru, February
Russian Armed Forces Face Severe Demographic Challenges
In December 2022, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced its ambitious plan for increasing the size of the Russian Armed Forces to 1.5 million personnel by the end of 2026.
Russian Space Spending for 2023
By 2023, Russia’s budgetary planning for civilian and military space programs was presumed to have changed compared with previous years due to the breakdown in space cooperation with the United
The Kremlin’s Narratives for Its War Against Ukraine
Since February 2022, the Kremlin has been trying to clearly present the purpose and thinking behind its all-out aggression against Ukraine. The Russian authorities’ narratives began with President Vladimir Putin’s
The Political Considerations Behind Russia’s Military Command Chaos
On January 11, the Russian Ministry of Defense once again changed the command structure of the Russian forces fighting against Ukraine. Army General Valery Gerasimov (born in 1955), chief of
Russia’s Nagging Arms Production Problems
While the issues with arms manufacturing in Russia have been covered in a number of analyses, production remains a serious challenge for the Russian defense industry as the Kremlin continues
The Skyrocketing Costs for Russia’s War Effort
The final deficit of the Russian federal budget for 2022 appeared to be 3.35 trillion rubles, almost $48.8 billion according to the average exchange rate during the year. Although, the
The Russian Armed Forces on Steroids
Since January 1, the ceiling of military personnel in the Russian Armed Forces has been increased from 1,013,628 to 1,150,628 service members (Kremlin.ru, August 25, 2022), which exceeds the ceiling
Russia’s Military Space Program: 2022 Results
During 2022, Russia launched 14 military satellites: three navigation satellites, two GLONASS-K1 satellites and the last GLONASS-M satellite; two electronic Lotos-S1 intelligence satellites; three inspector satellites, Cosmos-2558, launched in August,
Russia’s Strange Combination of Conscription and Mobilization
It is still three weeks before the fall conscription campaign in Russia ends. This conscription hopes to draft 120,000 new soldiers for all branches of the Russian Armed Forces, including
Russia’s Defense Industry Growing Increasingly Turbulent
Moscow has actively tried to restore at least part of its arms lost in Ukraine after almost nine months of its bloody war. Publicly, the Kremlin declares that nothing crucially
Russian UAVs: What Has Gone Wrong?
Since the beginning of its large-scale aggression against Ukraine, Russia has demonstrated relatively poor capabilities regarding its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), much poorer than one would expect given the extensive
Is Mobilization Really Over in Russia?
On October 28, Russia announced the successful end of its “partial mobilization” campaign. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu declared that 300,000 soldiers had been mobilized, with 13,000 volunteers among them.
The Kremlin’s Economic Mobilization
Following the “partial mobilization” of the Russian populace, huge losses in arms, as well as economic and budgetary imbalances, Moscow is facing the inevitable prospect of a complete economic mobilization.
Russian Air Power: Vanished or Overstated to Begin With?
Since the beginning of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine on February 24, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have not been able to demonstrate success, despite the huge modernization and rearmament efforts
Pariah Armed Forces and Russia’s ‘Party of War’
As the combat situation for Russian forces in Ukraine continues to worsen and as political tensions grow within and around the Kremlin, Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of Chechnya, publicly criticized
Russia’s Skyrocketing Defense Spending, 2022–2023
Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine and the Kremlin’s attempts to escalate the political situation and prevent defeat on the battlefield through mobilization, nuclear blackmail and possibly even sabotage on gas
Mobilization as a Triumph of Political Eschatology
The first week of the “partial mobilization” in Russia, which started on September 21, has demonstrated rampant bureaucratic chaos, a lack of planning and a deficit of training facilities and
The Impossible Mobilization
On September 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on partial mobilization (Kremlin.ru, September 21) and issued a public statement in which he claimed that the Russian Armed Forces
Challenges to Russian Arms Resupply: Tanks, Combat Aviation, Artillery Ammunition
After more than four months of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, open-source data confirms that the Russian Armed Forces lost, at a minimum, over 830 tanks and 1,650 different types of
Russian Challenges in Missile Resupply
After more than three months of its undeclared war of aggression against Ukraine, Russia fired over 2,100 cruise missiles and short-range ballistic missiles at targets inside the embattled country. Now
Russia’s Space Satellite Problems and the War in Ukraine
Three months into Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, the role of Russian military reconnaissance and communications satellites remains noticeably underdeveloped. Although Moscow has 102 military satellites in orbit,
Pavel Luzin Quoted by Yahoo! News Concerning Russia’s Failure to Establish Air Superiority
On May 10, Yahoo! News quoted Jamestown Analyst Pavel Luzin for an article concerning Russia's failure to achieve air superiority.
Russia’s Space Program in Wartime and Beyond
The Kremlin’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, launched on February 24, became a game changer for the Russian space program. Western sanctions, adopted in response to the war, have thrown Russia’s
Jamestown Board Member Gen. Philip M. Breedlove (ret.) and Jamestown Analyst Dr. Pavel Luzin Interviewed by The New York Times on Russia’s Military Modernization
On January 27, The New York Times published an article concerning Russia's military modernization and its impact on the Ukraine crisis. In the article, Jamestown Board Member, General Philip M. Breedlove
Russia’s ASAT Test: Motivations and Implications
Russia conducted its first kinetic satellite interception on November 15, 2021. A ground-based (presumably silo-based) missile was launched from the Plesetsk launch site and targeted the dead Soviet military satellite
Russia’s Race for Hypersonic Weapons
The global race for hypersonic weapons, or at least for technologies to reach hypersonic velocity, undoubtedly goes on. Russia is paying close attention to the research, development and testing of
The Commercial Space Sector and Russia’s Space Strategy
Even as the commercial space sector grows quickly in the United States as well as in Europe, China, Japan, India and other countries, Russia continues to lack a robust approach
Roscosmos Suffers From Russia’s Confrontation With the US
Dmitry Rogozin, the head of the Russian state-owned space corporation Roscosmos, confirmed during parliamentary hearings earlier this month that Western sanctions have damaged Russia’s space and orbital activities (Roscosmos.ru, June
Russia’s Approach to Nuclear Power in Outer Space
Russia has been conducting research and development (R&D) on using nuclear power in outer space for years. On May 22, Alexander Bloshenko, executive director for advanced programs and science of
Russian-Chinese Cooperation in Space
On March 9, Russia and China signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the construction of an international lunar research station (ILRS) (Roscosmos.ru, March 9). Though there is no
GLONASS Program for 2021–2030
In January, Russia started a new federal ten-year program for developing a GLONASS dual-use satellite navigation system. Its main goal, and challenge, is to replace the old generation of satellites
Russia’s Land-Based Cruise Missiles as a Political Tool
With future prospects for the nuclear arms control regime uncertain and the Kremlin unable to play its traditional political game of summitting with Western leaders due to the COVID-19 pandemic
Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: The Kremlin’s Wild Card
A recent interview in Kommersant with Marshall Billingslea, the special presidential envoy for arms control who represents the United States in negotiations with Russia on the extension of the New
Cosmos ASATs and Russia’s Approach to Space Weapons
In recent years, Russia repeatedly demonstrated the increasingly advanced orbital maneuvering capabilities of its satellites by conspicuously moving them closer to Russian, United States and European orbital space assets. These
The Influence of the Pandemic on Russia’s Defense Industry
The COVID-19 pandemic has plunged the world into a recession and damaged global supply chains. Russia’s defense industry has not been immune to these disruptive processes, and it came under
Prospects for Future US-Russia Space Cooperation
After nine years of the United States relying entirely on Russian Soyuz rockets to deliver astronauts into orbit, this dependency finally ended on May 30, 2020, with the successful launch
The Doomed Treaty: Russia’s Position on Prolonging New START
The Donald Trump administration has signaled that it is not interested in prolonging the New START strategic nuclear weapons limitation treaty after its expiration in February 2021, expressing the need
Multiple Challenges Hinder Russian Efforts to Modernize Its Satellite Navigation System
Russia’s constellation of GLONASS navigation satellites are part of a dual-use system—available to both civilian users and the military. Moscow began deploying it during the 1980s–1990s, but its initial capabilities