Executive Summary:   Russia’s rehabilitation of an abandoned airbase in the Libyan desert offers an opportunity to create a reliable line of supply to Russian forces operating in West Africa.  A Russian military presence close to the borders of Egypt, Sudan, and Chad could make... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s state-registered Cossack movement held its “Great Cossack Circle” meeting on February 25, highlighting Moscow’s growing investment in using the Cossacks as a state-managed substitute for authentic civil society. The “Great Cossack Circle” meeting emphasized Cossack military identity and pro-war sentiment, comparing Russia’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Nearly half of Russia’s regional leaders have launched programs to give payments of up to 150,000 rubles ($1,600) to underage girls who become pregnant and give birth as a way to reverse Russia’s demographic decline and win favor from the Kremlin. This policy... MORE

Executive Summary: Nominally “apolitical” ecological protests are becoming seedbeds of political activism in Russia because of the importance of the environment to Russian citizens and Moscow’s clumsy approach to its maintenance. The Vladimir Putin regime is increasingly aware of the threat posed by environmental activism... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is reportedly considering “post-war normalization” scenarios, involving the rehabilitation of public figures and return of emigrants who left at the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine to project internal stability amid prospects for a peace deal with Ukraine. Russia continues... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Steven Witkoff, U.S. President Donald Trump’s key negotiator, last Friday, in St. Petersburg, likely to buy himself more time before making any concessions. On Sunday, Russian missiles struck the Ukrainian city of Sumy, killing 34 people including... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has evolved from a traditional security agency into a political repression tool, prioritizing control of dissent rather than addressing actual security threats. The FSB controls key Russian state institutions—including the police, judiciary, and prosecutors—creating a security infrastructure... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s defense forces announced a Space Policy Directorate to develop a national satellite communication system as a key element of Command and Control and military technology development  The Ukrainian Armed Forces are in critical need of a robust satellite communications system, either domestically... MORE

Executive Summary: Xenophobia toward immigrants and ethnic minorities in Russia has reached nearly its highest level in decades, prompting some groups to form ethnic enclaves, which, in turn, has exacerbated hostility toward these groups. Both immigrants and ethnic minorities, as well as Russian nationalists who... MORE

Executive Summary: The Black Sea is the only theater in which Ukraine is prevailing over Russia in the ongoing war. The Kremlin regards the U.S.-brokered, deadline-driven ceasefire talks as an opportunity to reverse Ukraine’s successes in this theater. A maritime ceasefire without demarcation lines and... MORE