Vladimir Socor
Vladimir Socor is a Senior Fellow of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation and its flagship publication, Eurasia Daily Monitor (1995 to date), where he writes analytical articles on a daily basis. An internationally recognized expert on the former Soviet-ruled countries in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia, he covers Russian and Western policies, focusing on energy, regional security issues, Russian foreign affairs, secessionist conflicts, and NATO policies and programs. Mr. Socor is a frequent speaker at U.S. and European policy conferences and think-tank institutions; as well as a regular guest lecturer at the NATO Defense College and at Harvard University’s National Security Program’s Black Sea Program. He is also a frequent contributor to edited volumes. Mr. Socor was previously an analyst with the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Research Institute (1983-1994). He is a Romanian-born citizen of the United States based in Munich, Germany.
Contact Vladimir Socor
Articles by Vladimir Socor
Russia Playing Cat-and-Mouse With OSCE (Part Two)
Russia forced what it calls “the collective West” into significant concessions for this year’s Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) annual meeting of foreign ministers. Using its statutory
Russia Playing Cat-and-Mouse With OSCE (Part One)
The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) is holding its annual meeting at the level of foreign ministers from November 30 to December 1 in North Macedonia, the
Peace Unattainable Without Victory in Ukraine
The West’s inadequate arming of Ukraine predetermined costly failures for Kyiv’s counteroffensive. The effort to dislodge Russian forces from their entrenched positions in southeastern Ukraine has become a difficult endeavor
Ukraine Will Not Hold Elections During Wartime
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ended a debate that he himself had helped spark. Zelenskyy told the nation on November 6 that Ukraine cannot hold elections while fighting a war
Ukraine and the Global South: Putin’s Two-Front War Against the West (Part Two)
*Read Part One. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech to the Security Council on October 30 marks a further step toward positioning Russia at the forefront of anti-Western forces more globally
Ukraine and the Global South: Putin’s Two-Front War Against the West (Part One)
Addressing an expanded session of the Russian Security Council on October 30, President Vladimir Putin outlined a new concept for the struggle against the West (Kremlin.ru, October 30). Putin is
Moldova’s National Security Strategy Designates Russia as Existential Threat, Europe as Destination (Part Two)
*Read Part One. Earlier this year, Moldovan President Maia Sandu initiated a national pedagogical effort to convince a skeptical populace to take national security and defense seriously and accept higher
Moldova’s National Security Strategy Designates Russia as Existential Threat, Europe as Destination (Part One)
On October 11, President Maia Sandu unveiled Moldova’s new National Security Strategy, an inter-agency product of the country’s Supreme Security Council and other relevant government institutions. The document assesses Russia’s
Ukraine Using Asymmetric Countermeasures to Russian Power in the Black Sea
Russia has turned much of the Black Sea into a buffer zone against Western powers and, simultaneously, a power projection platform against Ukraine. Acting from seemingly impregnable positions in the
Zelenskyy Calls for De-Occupation of Ukraine’s Black Sea Domain
Addressing the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) and UN Security Council (UNSC), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy strongly emphasized Ukraine’s goal to regain all of its Russian-occupied territories, including Ukraine’s territorial
Putin-Erdogan Meeting Shows Turkey Unfit to Mediate Between Russia and Ukraine (Part Two)
*Read Part One. The Kremlin offered Turkey several major, highly attractive business projects at the bilateral summit in Sochi on September 4. These would further increase Turkey’s reliance on Russia in
Putin-Erdogan Meeting Shows Turkey Unfit to Mediate Between Russia and Ukraine (Part One)
Russian President Vladimir Putin has sternly rebuffed his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyp Erdogan’s ambitions to play peacemaker in the Russo-Ukrainian war and partially ease Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian grain exports.
Ukrainian Naval Drone Warfare: Some International Political Implications
Ukrainian naval combat drones are demonstrating rapid improvement in their technical characteristics (see EDM, November 8, 2022, June 2, 13). Ukrainian-made drones (uncrewed submerged, semisubmersible or surface vehicles; USVs) have
Russian Black Sea Fleet Intrudes Bulgarian Waters, Harasses Turkish Grain Freighter
On August 13, a warship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet executed a board-and-search operation of a Turkish freighter that was passing through Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) en route to
When Will Western Naval Powers Return to the Black Sea and on What Conditions? (Part Three)
*Read Part One. *Read Part Two. The current absence of Western naval powers in the Black Sea marks a sharp break with the history of their steady presence. This new
When Will Western Naval Powers Return to the Black Sea and on What Conditions? (Part Two)
*Read Part One. Just as it eschewed declaring war on Ukraine—proclaiming, instead, a “special military operation”—Russia never officially announced a naval blockade of Ukraine. A declared blockade accompanying a declared
When Will Western Naval Powers Return to the Black Sea and on What Conditions? (Part One)
Western naval powers have been shut out of the Black Sea until further notice. This is an extraordinary situation, exceedingly rare in modern history. No warship from a non-riparian country has
Ukrainian Trade Blockade: Foretaste of Russian Hegemony in Black Sea (Part Three)
*Read Part One. *Read Part Two. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) summit in Vilnius on July 11 and 12 upgraded the old NATO-Ukraine Commission to a NATO-Ukraine Council, which
Ukrainian Trade Blockade: Foretaste of Russian Hegemony in the Black Sea (Part Two)
*Read Part One. Russia has turned much of the Black Sea into another theater of protracted conflict, adding a sizeable maritime dimension to the land dimension. This conflict at sea
Ukrainian Trade Blockade: Foretaste of Russian Hegemony in the Black Sea (Part One)
On July 17, Russia unilaterally suspended the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (“grain deal”), the year-old arrangement that has allowed Ukraine to export grain—albeit under Russian-imposed conditions—from the
NATO’s 2023 Summit: Modest Expectations, Modest Results (Part Three)
*Read Part One. *Read Part Two. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has conclusively won the Baltic Sea; however, it risks losing the Black Sea in terms of naval posturing
NATO’s 2023 Summit: Modest Expectations, Modest Results (Part Two)
*Read Part One. The Vilnius summit’s communiqué (July 11) agreed on by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members slightly advances Ukraine’s membership prospects by mentioning the possibility of an
NATO’s 2023 Summit: Modest Expectations, Modest Results (Part One)
How to respond to Russia’s onslaught against Ukraine was the central question confronting the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) summit of heads of state in Vilnius on July 11 and
Moldova Outlaws Shor’s Russophile Party, but the Threat Persists (Part Two)
*Read Part One. The Moldovan Constitutional Court’s verdict dissolving the Shor Party on June 19 does not prevent the party from reorganizing under another name (see Part One). The decision,
Moldova Outlaws Shor’s Russophile Party, but the Threat Persists (Part One)
On June 19, the Moldovan Constitutional Court outlawed the Shor Party, led by fugitive tycoon Ilan Shor. The Justice Ministry had earlier requested the court to determine whether the party’s
Bringing Russia Back From the Cold at Ukraine’s Expense (Part Three)
*Read Part One here. *Read Part Two here. Under the Council on Foreign Relations’ imprimatur, Washington and its allies should grant Ukraine a final chance to regain some Russian-occupied territory
Bringing Russia Back From the Cold at Ukraine’s Expense (Part Two)
*Read Part One here. Another proposal for an armistice-in-place cutting across Ukraine’s territory has been aired for discussion, this time, from the Council on Foreign Relations (Foreign Affairs, April 13).
Bringing Russia Back From the Cold at Ukraine’s Expense (Part One)
Following a RAND Corporation analysis (see EDM, February 10, Part One and Part Two), it is the turn of the Council on Foreign Relations to prescribe consigning Ukraine to defeat
Moldovan Government Finally Burns Bridges to Russia (Part Two)
*Read Part One. Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s March 17 speech represents the official launch of Moldova’s reconstructed policy toward Russia. The lengthy address was delivered in Parliament but was explicitly
Moldovan Government Finally Burns Bridges to Russia (Part One)
Moldovan President Maia Sandu and her Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), in power since 2020 and 2021, respectively, are executing a full reversal of their erstwhile policy toward Russia.
Moving the Goalposts: Russia’s Evolving War Aims in Ukraine (Part Three)
*Read Part One and Part Two Russia basically revised its strategic agenda regarding Ukraine midway through this war. Moscow’s initial agenda aimed to control the whole of Ukraine politically and
Moving the Goalposts: Russia’s Evolving War Aims in Ukraine (Part Two)
*Read Part One. Russia’s war aims in Ukraine fall into two main categories: pre-programmed goals, which were announced from the start of the war (still being paid some lip service
Moving the Goalposts: Russia’s Evolving War Aims in Ukraine (Part One)
Russia’s political and military aims in Ukraine are continuously evolving throughout the course of the ongoing war. Its blitzkrieg in February and March 2022 failed to defeat and subdue Ukraine
Official Western Views Diverge With Ukrainian Views on War Outcomes (Part Two)
*Read Part One. Western governments have yet to define what would constitute Ukraine‘s victory—and, ipso facto, the West‘s victory—in reversing the results of Russia’s two invasions of Ukraine. Some of
Official Western Views Diverge With Ukrainian Views On War Outcomes (Part One)
A wide gap, a chasm in fact, persists between Ukrainian and most Western official definitions of what would constitute a successful outcome in Ukraine’s struggle to defeat Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Moldova Extricates From Russian-Dominated Process of Negotiations on Transnistria (Part Two)
*Read Part One. As part of its recent clean break with Russia, the Moldovan leadership is calling for the unconditional and complete evacuation of Russian forces unlawfully stationed on Moldova’s
Moldova Extricates From Russian-Dominated Process of Negotiations on Transnistria (Part One)
The first move to disentangle from an externally imposed, potentially fatal diplomatic process is to change the semantics. Along with this move, the country—Moldova in this case—must assert the priority
Biden Administration Signals Limits to Its Support for Ukraine’s Just War
The Munich Security Conference, running from February 17 to 19, and the upcoming one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, launched on February 24, 2022, are high water marks
The Case for US Assent to Ukraine’s Further Dismemberment (Part Two)
*Read Part One Here. Ukraine’s leadership and public opinion are adamant in ruling out land-for-peace tradeoffs with Russia. Leadership statements and public opinion surveys testify to this attitude. Such tradeoffs
The Case for US Assent to Ukraine’s Further Dismemberment (Part One)
The boldest prescription yet for a United States–abetted defeat of Ukraine by Russia—and, ipso facto, a Western defeat—has come out of one unit of the RAND Corporation in Washington, DC.
Russian-Ukrainian War Should Doom the ‘5+2’ Negotiations on Transnistria (Part Four)
*Read Part One here. *Read Part Two here. *Read Part Three here. Russia, immersed in its war against Ukraine, does not currently have Moldova in its crosshairs, at least as
Russian-Ukrainian War Should Doom the ‘5+2’ Negotiations on Transnistria (Part Three)
*Read Part One here. *Read Part Two here. The European Union has recently granted Moldova the status of candidate country for EU membership (Consilium.europa.eu, June 24, 2022). By way of
Russo-Ukrainian War Should Doom the ‘5+2’ Negotiations on Transnistria (Part Two)
*Read Part One here. The “5+2” forum on Transnistria was designed in 2005 based on the old model of the European Concert, updated as Euro-Atlantic: to settle a local conflict
Russo-Ukrainian War Should Doom the ‘5+2’ Negotiations on Transnistria (Part One)
Russia’s war against Ukraine has dealt the coup de grâce to the “5+2” negotiations on the settlement of conflict in Transnistria, the forum where Russia and Ukraine sit next to
Putin, Lavrov Set New Accents to Russia’s Case for War in Ukraine
In their parallel statements on January 18, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov added some new elements and emphases to Russia’s case for its war against Ukraine.
Ukraine Security Concept: A Transformative Proposal for European Security
The Ukrainian Presidential Office envisages a system of international security guarantees vis-a-vis Russia that would answer Kyiv’s post-war requirements. The guarantees would be provided by willing North Atlantic Treaty Organization
The OSCE in Agony (Part Four)
Click here to read Part One, Part Two and Part Three. Moldova is the last remaining target of Russia’s “special status” playbook, in this case in Transnistria. This is also the
The OSCE in Agony (Part Three)
Click here to read Part One and Part Two. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has lost relevance and even access to the conflict-resolution process between Armenia
The OSCE in Agony (Part Two)
Read Part One here. This year’s Polish chairmanship barred Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov from entering Poland for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) year-end ministerial meeting.
The OSCE in Agony (Part One)
Russia’s devastating invasion of Ukraine this year is not, for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), a dramatic watershed or existential crossroads as it has been made
Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: A Case of Russian State Robbery (Part Two)
Read Part One Here. Russia began installing managers and technical staff at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) soon after seizing the plant by military force on March 4 and
Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: A Case of Russian State Robbery (Part One)
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is the most valuable economic asset that Russia has plundered from Ukraine during the present military invasion. The Russians captured this nuclear plant with
Ukraine Poised to Liberate Western Kherson
On November 9, in a televised conference, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin, announced another major Russian setback (TASS, November
Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions Under the Russian State of War (Part Two)
*Click here to read Part One. The Ukrainian army’s liberation campaign in Kherson region has ground to a halt. This should not be surprising as the army is insufficiently equipped
Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions Under the Russian State of War (Part One)
Russia designates its all-out aggression in Ukraine as a “special military operation,” avoiding the term “war.” Nevertheless, the Kremlin has imposed a “state of war” (voyennoye polozhenie) in the Russian-occupied
Moldova’s Russophile Left: A Complicated Picture
Spearheading regime-change attempts in Moldova is the Shor Party of businessman Ilan Shor, a presumed billionaire currently operating from Israel. The party has developed its social base through Shor‘s lavish
Regime-Change Attempts in Moldova: Russophile, Leftist and Oligarchic
Moldova is experiencing an attempt at regime change through social protests mobilized by parties of the Russophile left. They are calling for the resignation of President Maia Sandu and her
Russia ‘Normalizing’ Occupation Regime in Southern Ukraine (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The front lines cutting across the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions do not coincide with the Russian-declared “borders” vis-à-vis Ukraine. Under the treaties on
Russia ‘Normalizing’ Occupation Regime in Southern Ukraine (Part One)
Russia is winding down its military-civil administrations in the occupied Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The Kremlin has decided to transition these regions to Russia’s internal administrative system, the
Zelenskyy Bans Negotiations With Putin
On October 4, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy released a decree effectively ruling out negotiations with Russia’s incumbent president. Technically, Zelenskyy’s decree confers legal force on the Ukrainian National Security and
Russia Keeps ‘Gathering’ Non-Russian Lands in Ukraine and Beyond
The Muscovite Tsardom portrayed its relentless territorial expansion as “gathering Russian lands.” In many cases, the lands in question were not even Russian, but once conquered, they were subjected to
Russia Consummates Annexation ‘Referendums’ in Occupied Ukrainian Territories
The Russian State Duma and Federation Council are set to enact the annexation of Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (“DPR”, “LPR”) to the
Russia Staging Blitz ‘Referendums’ to Annex Four Ukrainian Territories
Moscow has abruptly reversed its decision, made as recently as July 2022, to postpone annexation “referendums” in the Russian-occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine. The Kremlin had concluded that
Russian ‘Referendums’ in Ukrainian Territories Boosting Putin’s Novorossiya Project
Eight years ago, Russia launched a hybrid war against Ukraine with the aim to seize Crimea and wrest six Ukrainian mainland provinces—Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa—away from Ukraine.
Ukraine Evicts Russian Occupation Administration from Kharkiv Region
The Ukrainian forces’ offensive in Kharkiv region has liberated almost all its Russian-occupied territory. The Ukrainians have regained 8,500 square kilometers from September 6 through September 14, according to the latest
Russian ‘Referendums’ Delayed, Ukrainian Resistance Mounting in Occupied Kherson and Zaporyzhzhia (Part Two)
Armed resistance within the occupied territory, coupled with Ukrainian army counterattacks along the front lines, have compelled Moscow to postpone the “referendums” for annexing Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporyzhzhia regions to
Russian ‘Referendums’ Delayed, Ukrainian Resistance Mounting in Occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia (Part One)
As anticipated well ahead of the curve (see EDM, July 21, 22), Russia has missed the September 11 target date for staging annexation “referendums” in Ukraine’s occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia
Russia Defers ‘Referendums’ in Southern Ukraine for More Careful Preparation
Russia is proceeding apace to absorb the occupied territories in Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv provinces, already transforming them into Russia’s own image. Western powers have reacted to the prospect
Moldova’s Bizarre Neutrality: No Obstacle to Western Security Assistance (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Russia resorted to military interventions repeatedly to stop Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014, 2022) from drawing
Moldova’s Bizarre Neutrality: No Obstacle to Western Security Assistance (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Any status of neutrality is subject to legal and political interpretations, within or outside the country in question, at any given time; all
Moldova’s Bizarre Neutrality: No Obstacle to Western Security Assistance (Part One)
Russia’s war in Ukraine, with an undisguised goal to advance on Odesa, threatens by the same token to open a corridor to Transnistria and bring Russian forces onto Moldova’s and
Pro-Russia Parties Resurgent in Moldova (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Moldova’s leftist-Russophile parties are surging in public opinion polls by blaming the multifaceted economic crisis
Pro-Russia Parties Resurgent in Moldova (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Moldova’s Russophile parties aim to force snap parliamentary and presidential elections this year, capitalizing on an unprecedented economic crisis to topple the pro-Western
Pro-Russia Parties Resurgent in Moldova (Part One)
Russia’s war in Ukraine and general assault on the European order are impacting Moldova more directly and dangerously than any of Ukraine’s (or, for that matter, Russia’s) other neighboring countries.
Russian Occupation in Southern Ukraine: The Role of Military-Civil Administrations (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russia has set up a military-civil administration (MCA) in Ukraine’s occupied Zaporyzhzhia region along the same considerations as it did in Kherson region.
Russian Occupation in Southern Ukraine: The Role of Military-Civil Administrations (Part One)
Russia is fastening its grip on Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporyzhzhia regions through military-civil administrations (MCAs). Moscow employs MCAs as the main instruments of its occupation policy in southern Ukraine, quite
Russia Considers Annexing Ukrainian Territories Through Referendums (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russia gave plenty of early warning of its intentions to keep Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporyzhzhia regions permanently under occupation and attach them to
Russia Considers Annexing Ukrainian Territories Through Referendums (Part One)
The United States has finally taken notice of Russia’s plans to “attempt the annexation of additional Ukrainian territories,” citing “massive evidence from both intelligence and open sources.” The realization is
Summit Shows NATO’s Limited Relevance to Ukraine (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Four months into the biggest conventional war in Europe since World War II, North Atlantic Treaty
Summit Shows NATO’s Limited Relevance to Ukraine (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) had blocked Ukraine’s membership track long before Russia’s 2022 re-invasion of Ukraine. The summit in Madrid (June
Summit Shows NATO’s Limited Relevance to Ukraine (Part One)
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is what the political leaders in the capitals of member countries make it to be. The summit just held confirmed this reality (see EDM,
NATO’s New Strategic Concept Gives Short Shrift to Eastern Neighborhood
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) new Strategic Concept, approved at the summit just held in Madrid, strongly emphasizes Russia’s multidimensional threats to the Alliance. By way of response, the
NATO Summit: New Strategic Concept Brings New Realism About Russia
Heads of state and government of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) convened on June 28–30, in Madrid, in the unprecedented circumstances of Russia’s invasion of NATO’s most important partner
Senior Fellows Margarita Assenova and Vladimir Socor Quoted by The Economic Times on Ukraine
On May 3, The Economic Times published an article by AFP concerning what victory in Ukraine looks like, quoting the April 21 Jamestown Webinar on the topic featuring Senior Fellows Margarita Assenova
In Southern Ukraine, Russian Occupation Policy Takes Shape (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Removing officials loyal to Ukraine from local administrations and replacing them with nominees of the occupation
In Southern Ukraine, Russian Occupation Policy Takes Shape (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russia’s 2022 re-invasion of Ukraine resulted, by mid-March, in the capture of Ukraine’s entire Kherson province, a considerable part of the Zaporyzhzhia province,
In Southern Ukraine, Russian Occupation Policy Takes Shape (Part One)
Russian forces invaded southern Ukraine on February 24, 2022, from two convergent directions, Crimea and Donetsk, both already occupied since 2014 (see EDM, April 6). Russia’s second invasion resulted, by
Ukraine’s Deeply Flawed Blueprint for Guaranteed Neutrality (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Invaded Ukraine is negotiating under duress for a two-part deal with the invader Russia: a bilateral
Ukraine’s Deeply Flawed Blueprint for Guaranteed Neutrality (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Three, please click here. Russian forces have perpetrated mass-scale, intentional atrocities on civilians in the Kyiv region. Uncovered in the
Ukraine’s Deeply Flawed Blueprint for Guaranteed Neutrality (Part One)
Turned away from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) purportedly “open door” (see EDM, March 30), Kyiv has submitted its official proposals to Moscow for a treaty on Ukraine’s neutrality
Ukraine in Quest for Internationally Guaranteed Neutrality
Ukraine has abandoned its aspiration to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and is seeking, instead, some form of neutrality under international guarantees. Kyiv aims to achieve this goal
Russia Smashing Ukraine Into Pax Russica (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russian-Ukrainian “peace” negotiations have been in permanent session since March 14 by video conference, with a sense of urgency and in secrecy. Multiple,
Russia Smashing Ukraine Into Pax Russica (Part One)
A fourth round of Russian-Ukrainian “peace” negotiations started on March 14 and is continuing as of today (March 17), the 21st day of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine’s interior. Russia’s deliberate
New Eastern Europe Interviews Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor
On March 15, New Eastern Europe published an interview with Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor, where he answered questions about Russia's intentions in Ukraine.
Moldova Keeps Out of Russia-Ukraine Fray (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Moldova’s leadership realistically views its country as the most fragile among all of Ukraine’s neighbors from the standpoint of national cohesion, resilience, and
Moldova Keeps out of Russia-Ukraine Fray (Part One)
Moldova is responding with utmost caution to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine since late February. The Moldovan leadership, which took over not long ago (see EDM, November 17, 2020 and
Russia’s Invasion Manifesto to Ukraine
Traditionally, imperial powers sending their armies into foreign countries for purposes of conquest issued explanatory manifestoes to the invaded peoples and to their own. The Kremlin issued the equivalent of
Kremlin Announces War Aims Against Ukraine
At 6 AM Moscow time, on February 24, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin announced in a televised address the start of a “special military operation” by Russian forces against Ukraine. At
Russia Recognizes Donetsk, Luhansk Satrapies as ‘Independent States’
Russia has recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR) as “independent states,” eight years after seizing these territories in eastern Donbas from Ukraine. The scenario closely resembles Russia’s
German Chancellor Effectively Takes the Kremlin’s Side in Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Germany’s new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, conferred with the Ukrainian and Russian presidents in Kyiv and Moscow on February 14 and 15, respectively, turning these maiden visits into a shuttle-diplomacy effort.
Chancellor Scholz Brings a Russia-First Approach to Ukraine
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on February 14 and went on to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow the following
Macron’s Ukraine Diplomacy Runs Into a Kremlin Wall
French President Emmanuel Macron held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on February 7 and 8, respectively. Overshadowing the talks were
German Security Assistance to Ukraine Perpetually on Hold (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. An itemized list of Ukraine’s latest request for German security assistance has found its way into two major German papers (Süddeutsche Zeitung, Der
German Security Assistance to Ukraine Perpetually on Hold (Part One)
Germany ranks among the top arms-exporting countries worldwide. However, it is withholding lethal security assistance to Ukraine and provides even non-lethal assistance with conspicuous parsimony. Germany’s tripartite coalition government, in
Moscow, Kyiv Differ Over Goals in Relaunching Normandy Process (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov is content with the resumption of the quadrilateral (Ukraine, Russia, France, Germany) Normandy process and the direction it seems
Moscow, Kyiv Differ Over Goals in Relaunching Normandy Process (Part One)
On January 26, in Paris, senior political advisors to the Russian, Ukrainian, German and French heads of state and government convened to “reanimate” (such is the term in circulation) the
Russian-Led Mission in Kazakhstan Unveils New Peacekeeping Model (Part Two)
Russia’s peacekeeping intervention with four minor allies in Kazakhstan (January 6 through January 19—see Part One in EDM, January 19, 2022) brings to six the number of Russian operations labeled
Russian-Led Mission in Kazakhstan Unveils New Peacekeeping Model (Part One)
From January 6 through January 19, Russia and its allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) conducted a successful stabilization mission in Kazakhstan, at the latter country’s urgent request.
Biden Administration Aligns With Kremlin Push for Minsk ‘Agreements’ on Ukraine (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Recent statements by the United States—namely, the White House and the State Department—reveal the misunderstanding and/or
Biden Administration Aligns With Kremlin Push for Minsk ‘Agreements’ on Ukraine (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The Joseph Biden administration has recently learned the Russian MinskSpeak, chapter and verse. Following direct discussions with Moscow (see EDM, October 20, December
Biden Administration Aligns With Kremlin Push for Minsk ‘Agreements’ on Ukraine (Part One)
Russia imposed the Minsk “agreements” on Ukraine in 2014 and 2015 through military force. Ukraine’s government and civil society regard the terms of those documents as inimical to the national
Ukraine in Play After Biden-Putin Discussion
Presidents Joseph Biden of the United States and Vladimir Putin of Russia have agreed, in their December 7 video-dialogue (see EDM, December 8), to create working groups that would address
Ukraine Looms Large in Biden-Putin Dialogue
Presidents Joseph Biden of the United States and Vladimir Putin of Russia held a one-on-one video-conference, on December 7—their fifth direct dialogue (three by telephone, one in person, one by
Lavrov’s Leaks: Moscow Embarrasses Berlin and Paris in Negotiations Over Ukraine (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. While Kyiv, Berlin and Paris pursue (with varying degrees of intensity, frantically in Kyiv’s case) a high-level “Normandy” meeting as a goal for
Lavrov’s Leaks: Moscow Embarrasses Berlin and Paris in Negotiations Over Ukraine (Part One)
Russian diplomacy is testing its rogue-state practices on its Western diplomatic counterparts, and finds them malleable. On November 17, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov unilaterally publicized the confidential messages recently
Moldova Uniquely Vulnerable to Russian Energy Servitude (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Moldova’s natural gas market has become physically accessible to non-Russian gas suppliers through the Romania-Moldova interconnector, the Iasi–Ungheni–Chisinau pipeline. Built and operated by
Moldova Uniquely Vulnerable to Russian Energy Servitude (Part One)
The Republic of Moldova presents a unique combination of economic and political vulnerabilities to Russian energy servitude. The Kremlin has underscored this situation by hitting Moldova’s recently elected, Western-oriented government
Unfortunate but Inevitable: Moldova’s Gas Supply Agreement With the Kremlin and Gazprom
On October 29, Moscow and Chisinau agreed on a conditional resumption of Russian natural gas supplies to Moldova as of October 30. The Russian side had curtailed gas supplies to
Russian Gazprom Ready to Pounce on Moldovan Prey (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Four rounds of Russian-Moldovan negotiations in October over natural gas supplies have revealed the two sides’ conflicting positions (see Part One). The Russians
Russian Gazprom Ready to Pounce on Moldovan Prey (Part One)
Using Gazprom as its political instrument, the Kremlin threatens to halt natural gas supplies to Moldova temporarily on November 1, and indefinitely from December 1, unless Moldova accepts Russia’s financial
The Kremlin Is Pleased After Kozak-Nuland Talks on Ukraine (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. According to Kremlin-connected analyst Fedor Lukyanov, the Joseph Biden administration had to work hard with Moscow to make Under Secretary Victoria Nuland’s visit
The Kremlin Is Pleased After Kozak-Nuland Talks on Ukraine (Part One)
The Joseph Biden administration has apparently decided to work with Russia toward a political solution to the conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas. On October 13, US Under Secretary of State Victoria
Putin‘s Brutal Letter to Ukraine under Medvedev’s Byline
The Kremlin has published an open letter to and about Ukraine, replete with insults and threats. An official public document in such a style seemed inconceivable in contemporary international relations,
Kremlin Publicizes Its View on Europe’s Energy Crisis
The Kremlin is skillfully exploiting a European energy crisis caused in part by flawed European policies. On October 6, at the TTF Hub in the Netherlands, the price of natural
Russia Kills OSCE’s Observer Mission on Russia-Ukraine Border
Today (September 30) marks the final day in the captive life of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Observer Mission (OSCE OM), which has operated on the Russian
Russian Elections in Ukraine’s Donbas: Annexing People Before Annexing Territory
On September 17–19, elections to Russia’s State Duma (lower house of parliament) were unlawfully staged in the Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine’s east (Donetsk and Luhansk) as well as in annexed
Weak Response to Russian Duma Elections in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia
On September 17–19, elections to Russia’s State Duma (lower house of Parliament) were unlawfully staged in Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia—territories seized from Moldova and Georgia, respectively. Russia also unlawfully
Kyiv Airing Disappointment With Western Policies
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is reverting to his earlier, forlorn hopes of improving relation with Russia through a personal meeting with President Vladimir Putin. The Ukrainian president is eager to
US-Ukraine Strategic Partnership Gets Another Lease on Life (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The Joint Statement on the US-Ukraine Strategic Partnership was released during President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Washington visit (Whitehouse.gov, President.gov.ua, September 1), but surprisingly it
US-Ukraine Strategic Partnership Gets Another Lease on Life (Part One)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the United States (August 31–September 2) succeeded, at least, in halting the degradation of the bilateral relationship, under way since 2019, particularly after the
Lukashenka Says No to Russian Military Base and Deeper Integration With Russia
In his marathon question-and-answer session on August 9, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka again ruled out the integration of Belarus with Russia at the level of institutions as well as the
Kremlin Responds to New Moldovan Leadership’s Overtures
The Kremlin has wasted no time reacting to the positive signals from Moldova’s new, Western-oriented leadership. On August 11, only five days after Moldova’s new government took office, the deputy
Will the EU Shake off Its Lethargy Over the Protracted Conflicts in the Black Sea Region? (Part Five)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. *To read Part Three, please click here. *To read Part Four, please click here. Romania’s proposals,
Will the EU Shake off Its Lethargy Over the Protracted Conflicts in the Black Sea Region? (Part Four)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. *To read Part Three, please click here. The European Union has a 30-year handicap to overcome
Will the EU Shake off Its Lethargy Over the Protracted Conflicts in the Black Sea Region? (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. The European Union is undertaking initial exploratory steps following Romania’s proposals to support the EU’s Eastern
Will the EU Shake off Its Lethargy Over the Protracted Conflicts in the Black Sea Region? (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The European Union has yet to develop a policy regarding the protracted (“frozen”) conflicts in the wider Black Sea region. Russia is both
Will the EU Shake off Its Lethargy Over the Protracted Conflicts in the Black Sea Region? (Part One)
Romania’s minister of foreign affairs, Bogdan Aurescu, is spearheading an initiative within the European Union to involve the EU in the management and eventual resolution of the protracted conflicts in
Vladimir Socor quoted by The Washington Post on Moldova’s Reformist Party Winning Elections
The Washington Post's July 20 editorial on Moldova's recent parliamentary elections cites a recent article in Eurasia Daily Monitor by Jamestown Senior Fellow, Vladimir Socor, who points out that the
Russia Abandons Moldovan Clients, Will Deal With the New Pro-Western Government (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. From Russia’s standpoint, Moldova’s former president Igor Dodon and his Socialist Party are serial losers and expired assets following their latest defeat in
Russia Abandons Moldovan Clients, Will Deal With the New Pro-Western Government (Part One)
Russia has done almost nothing to help Igor Dodon’s Socialist Party and other Russophile forces in Moldova’s recent parliamentary elections. The Kremlin and its propaganda apparatus kept silent; and the
Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor Interviewed by RFE/RL on the July 11 Elections in Moldova
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor commented on the results of Moldova's elections of July 2021 for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. According to Socor, the epoch of a "coalition nightmare" in
Moldova’s Pro-Western Forces Achieve Landslide in Parliamentary Elections
Moldova’s pre-term parliamentary elections, on July 11, have produced an even more sweeping sea change than anticipated (see EDM, July 8, 9). The Western-oriented opposition, concentrated in the Party of
Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections May Produce a Sea Change (Part Two)
*To Read Part One, please click here. The Electoral Bloc of Communists and Socialists (BECS) would probably nominate Igor Dodon (Moldova’s president in 2016–2020) as the next prime minister, if
Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections May Produce a Sea Change (Part One)
Moldova could break out from its cycle of political instability and economic decay, provided that President Maia Sandu’s creation, the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), gains an outright parliamentary
NATO Summit: Strong on Russia but a Net Disappointment to Eastern Allies and Partners (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The quasi-annual charade surrounding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s Membership Action Plans (NATO MAP) for Ukraine and Georgia took a different form at
NATO Summit: Strong on Russia but a Net Disappointment to Eastern Allies and Partners (Part One)
The heads of state and government of the North Atlantic Organization’s (NATO) 30 member countries held a summit at the Alliance’s Brussels headquarters on June 14. NATO summits usually take
Four Setbacks to Western Credibility in Ukraine (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Along with United States President Joseph Biden greenlighting Gazprom’s Nord Stream Two project, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken giving Ukraine’s concerns the
Four Setbacks to Western Credibility in Ukraine (Part One)
Within the last three weeks, a series of decisions by leading Western powers seem to indicate a downgrading of Ukraine on the scale of Western policy priorities. Taken partly in
Zelenskyy Ready to Frame Poroshenko on Criminal Charges
On May 20, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a highly personalized form, threatened to send his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, to prison. “I am his sentence [prigovor], he just does not
Outreach to Putin, Crackdown on Medvedchuk: A Hard Stretch for Zelenskyy
Ukrainian law enforcement authorities have detained Viktor Medvedchuk, head of the pro-Russia parliamentary opposition, to prosecute him on treason charges (see EDM, May 13). President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has publicly hailed
Ukraine Indicts, Detains Putin’s Top Asset Medvedchuk
On May 12, Ukraine’s General Prosecutor’s Office detained Viktor Medvedchuk, pending his trial for multiple alleged criminal activities. His legal status as of now is that of “suspect,” pending the
Blinken’s Debut in Ukraine: A Case for Managing Expectations (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his closest entourage sometimes raise public expectations of what the United States can deliver to Ukraine to unrealistically high
Blinken’s Debut in Ukraine: A Case for Managing Expectations (Part One)
Antony Blinken is visiting Kyiv today (May 6) on his first bilateral visit as US Secretary of State to a European country (Ukraiynska Pravda, May 6). This choice should have
One-on-One With Putin: A Reckless Adventure for Zelenskyy (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. “We should not let Mr. Zelenskyy and his team off the hook, but let them twist [wriggle, squirm] there,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
One-on-One With Putin: A Reckless Adventure for Zelenskyy (Part One)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would be holding no cards in the event of a one-on-one meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zelenskyy is known to believe that he holds the
The Kremlin Sets Insuperable Preconditions to Meeting With Zelenskyy
Russia is downscaling its buildup of military forces in Ukraine’s vicinity after three weeks of an elaborate war scare. The Russian pullback under way since April 22, however, is neither
Zelenskyy Seeks a Summit With Putin Again
Following United States President Joseph Biden’s example, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also blinked to the Kremlin. The US president solicited a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on April
Macron, Merkel, Zelenskyy Meet to Defuse Russian War Scare
On April 16, in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in person and with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who joined by video-link midway through
‘Nothing About Us Without Us’: Normandy Without Ukraine?
Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron conferred, on March 30, by video-conference on multiple international issues, including the intensification of the “internal conflict
Franco-German Proposals in the Normandy Forum: A Letdown to Ukraine
The Kremlin’s representative to negotiations over Russia’s war in Ukraine’s east, Dmitry Kozak, is undoubtedly the source of the outpouring of secret documents to the Russian daily Kommersant (March 24),
Yermak’s Earlier Giveaways Come Back to Haunt Zelenskyy and Ukraine
Russia abandoned the ceasefire in Ukraine’s east in early February (see EDM, February 18) and persists with low-intensity positional warfare to date, killing and wounding several Ukrainian soldiers every week.
Russia’s Karabakh Protectorate Taking Clearer Shape (Part Three)
*To read part one, please click here *To read part two, please click here Relations between the authorities in Stepanakert, the capital of the self-declared “republic” of Karabakh, and the
Russia’s Karabakh Protectorate Taking Clearer Shape (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russia seems intent on reproducing in Karabakh the model it had earlier developed in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria and Donbas—namely, a local proto-state
Russia’s Karabakh Protectorate Taking Clearer Shape (Part One)
Russia’s military “peacekeeping” intervention in Upper (“Nagorno”) Karabakh in November 2020 laid the foundation for a Russian de facto protectorate (see EDM, December 8, 10, 2020). The Second Karabakh War
Prime Minister Pashinian Stages Own Coup Against Armenia’s Military
Armenia’s military top brass has demanded that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s government resign “for having brought the country to disaster.” Blaming Pashinian for overall incompetence and the recent lost war,
Azerbaijan, Turkey Watching Armenia’s Political Crisis
Viewed from Baku and Ankara, the political conflict in Armenia pits military and civilian nationalists unreconciled to defeat in the Second Karabakh War (September 27–November 9, 2020) versus the armistice-accepting
Lacking Alternatives, Russia Betting on Armenia’s Embattled Prime Minister Pashinian
The top brass of Armenia’s Armed Forces along with a broad coalition of political groups have moved to oust Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and his government from power, thus far
Armenia’s Military Leadership, Civilian Opposition Move to Oust Pashinian’s Government (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The power struggle in Armenia (see Part One in EDM, February 25) has turned into a standoff confined to Yerevan’s central square. It
Armenia’s Military Leadership, Civilian Opposition Move to Oust Pashinian’s Government (Part One)
A military-civilian putsch broke out in Yerevan today (February 25) against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and his government, who are blamed for Armenia’s disastrous defeat by Azerbaijan in the 44-day
More Contentious Issues Surface Between Kyiv and Moscow in the Minsk Contact Group
The latest session of the Minsk Contact Group (see EDM, February 18) lifted a curtain’s corner on several disputed issues that had not been publicly aired thus far. The Ukrainian
Russia Calibrating Low-Intensity War in Ukraine’s East
From January 21 through February 14, Russian and proxy forces killed 13 Ukrainian soldiers and wounded at least another 19 along the frontline in Ukraine’s Donbas. Most of these casualties
Crimea Platform: Ukraine’s Initiative to Raise the Costs of Russia’s Occupation
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government are preparing to host a summit of heads of state and government, aiming to mobilize a more effective international response to Russia’s seizure
Does the Normandy Group on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Have a Future? (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Kyiv is pinning its hopes on the new administration of United States President Joseph Biden to help rebalance and restart both the Normandy
Does the Normandy Group on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Have a Future? (Part One)
Ukraine is multiplying calls for changing the composition of the “Normandy Four” group (Russia, Germany, France, Ukraine) and its derivative Minsk Contact Group (see below). The Kremlin has effectively used
Can the Minsk Group on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Reinvent Itself? (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russia, not the Minsk Group, will reinvent the Minsk Group, and is working on it (see Part One in EDM, January 28). The
Can the Minsk Group on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Reinvent Itself? (Part One)
The 44-day Second Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan, its Russian-mediated outcome, the launch of Russia’s own peacekeeping operation, and Turkey’s rise as a regional power have all exposed the
Russian ‘Peacekeeping’ in Karabakh: Old Model, New Features, Mission Creep (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Karabakh was the only Soviet-legacy conflict that did not feature Russian “peacekeeping”
Russian ‘Peacekeeping’ in Karabakh: Old Model, New Features, Mission Creep (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Under the November 9–10, 2020 armistice declaration, Russia’s “peacekeeping” mission in Upper (Nagorno) Karabakh is limited to 1,960 motor-rifle troops with light weapons
Russian ‘Peacekeeping’ in Karabakh: Old Model, New Features, Mission Creep (Part One)
Russia’s “peacekeeping” operation in Upper (Nagorno) Karabakh, which ended the 44-day war last November, is laying the foundation of a Russian protectorate in this Armenian-inhabited territory of Azerbaijan (see EDM,
Vitaly Balasanian, Karabakh’s Strongman-in-Waiting
The unrecognized Karabakh republic (“Artsakh” to Armenians), a militarized proto-state, seems headed for leadership change. Following its defeat (shared with Armenia) by Azerbaijan in the recent 44-day war, Karabakh’s so-called
Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia to Start Regional Interconnectivity Projects
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian conferred on January 11, in the Kremlin, to assess the implementation of the Putin-brokered armistice that
Armenia’s 44-Day War: A Self-Inflicted Trauma (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The Armenian government has yet to unveil the number of military casualties sustained during the Second Karabakh War (September 27–November 9, 2020). Almost
Armenia’s 44-Day War: A Self-Inflicted Trauma (Part One)
The Armenian government of Nikol Pashinian represents the first case of a “color revolution”–emanated government lightheartedly going to war (Armenia-Azerbaijan war, September 27–November 10, 2020). Irrationally, this government waged a
The South Caucasus: New Realities After the Armenia-Azerbaijan War (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently supplanted the Minsk Group’s triple co-chairmanship (the United States, France,
The South Caucasus: New Realities After the Armenia-Azerbaijan War (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Azerbaijan’s successful military action against Armenia’s occupying forces in Karabakh this autumn disproved Western diplomacy’s admonitions about post-Soviet “frozen conflicts” having “no military
The South Caucasus: New Realities After the Armenia-Azerbaijan War (Part One)
The Second Karabakh War (September 27–November 9, 2020) has resulted in an Azerbaijani national triumph, a self-inflicted Armenian trauma, geopolitical gains for Russia, another debacle of Western diplomacy, and Turkey’s
Russia’s ‘Peacekeeping’ Operation in Karabakh: Foundation of a Russian Protectorate (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russian troops deployed to Upper (“Nagorno”) Karabakh exceed by far the number stipulated in the November 9 armistice agreement (see EDM, November 12,
Russia’s ‘Peacekeeping’ Operation in Karabakh: Foundation of a Russian Protectorate (Part One)
Following its victorious 44-day war (September 27–November 9), Azerbaijan controls approximately one third of the territory of its Upper (“Nagorno”) Karabakh region. The larger part remains under Armenia’s control via
The Minsk Group: Karabakh War’s Diplomatic Casualty (Part Four)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. *To read Part Three, please click here. Over the past two decades, the main international
The Minsk Group: Karabakh War’s Diplomatic Casualty (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Irrespective of the rights and wrongs of the issue at stake, mediators are expected to be
The Minsk Group: Karabakh War’s Diplomatic Casualty (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The second Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan (September–November 2020) has conclusively discredited the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk
The Minsk Group: Karabakh War’s Diplomatic Casualty (Part One)
The 44-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan (September 27–November 9) has resulted in an Azerbaijani national triumph, a Russian geopolitical and diplomatic victory over the West, and a conclusive discrediting
How Yerevan Walked Away From the ‘Basic Principles’ of Karabakh Conflict Settlement
Almost from the moment he came to power (2018), Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian rejected the “Basic Principles” worked out by the Minsk Group’s co-chairs (the United States, Russia, France)
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor Interviewed for RFE/RL Article
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor was interviewed for a RFE/RL article, "New President Wants To End Moldova's Isolation, But The Obstacles Remain Daunting." Socor commented on Maia Sandu's victory in
Moldova’s Presidential Election: The Russians Were Not Coming (This Time)
Moldova’s recent presidential election (first round held on November 1, second round on November 15) has been widely stereotyped by international media as a geopolitical contest between a democratic West
Fractured Moldova’s Presidential Election Decided by European Diaspora Vote
Moldova’s two-round presidential election, on November 1 and November 15, was—above everything else—a clash of cultures. It pitted the incumbent Socialist, Russia-oriented President Igor Dodon, with his core electorate of
Karabakh Armistice: Azerbaijani National Triumph, Russian Geopolitical Victory (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Azerbaijan’s army has won the second Karabakh war, regaining about one half of the territory seized from it by Armenian forces in
Karabakh Armistice: Azerbaijani National Triumph, Russian Geopolitical Victory (Part One)
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian signed, over a video conference, on November 9, an armistice agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Mediated
The Kremlin Gently Nudging Lukashenka Toward Constitutional Reform
The Kremlin is presently redoubling its attention to Belarus, issuing public pronouncements in rapid succession. Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s (Svetlana Tikhanovskaya) calls from abroad for a general strike on
A Belarusian Revolution? What Kind? (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The protest movement under way in Belarus appears to the world as yet another “color revolution” for “regime change.” The target this time
A Belarusian Revolution? What Kind? (Part One)
The protest movement under way in Belarus appears to the world as yet another “color revolution” for “regime change.” The target this time is the autocracy of President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s,
Moldova’s Presidential Election: Geopolitics Take a Back Seat for Now
Moldova is holding its quadrennial presidential election on November 1, with a likely runoff on November 15 between the two leading contenders: the Socialist incumbent President Igor Dodon and challenger
Russia’s Interests in Belarus: Ends and Means (Part Four)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. *To read Part Three, please click here. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has, in practice, achieved and maintained
Russia’s Interests in Belarus: Ends and Means (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Russia’s interests in Belarus at this stage may be categorized as status quo–oriented interests and those
Russia’s Interests in Belarus: Ends and Means (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Regime change via constitutional reform is Moscow’s chosen avenue toward its goal in Belarus: turning the country into a satellite of Russia, stopping
Russia’s Interests in Belarus: Ends and Means (Part One)
Russia is not pursuing an “Anschluss” with Belarus. Rather, it aims to curtail Belarus’s external and internal sovereignty in the foreign policy, military, economic, and domestic institutional realms, stopping short
Russia’s Regime-Change Experiment in Belarus Runs Into Difficulties (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. For now, the Belarusian authorities are holding out confidently against regime change on both fronts: against the domestic opposition and against Russia’s initial
Russia’s Regime-Change Experiment in Belarus Runs Into Difficulties (Part One)
The Kremlin is conducting a regime-change operation in Belarus, the first-ever Russian operation of this type in its “near abroad.” Belarus’s presidential election campaign from May to August and the
Belarus a Blip, Russia Looms Large on Macron’s Baltic Visit (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Visiting Lithuania and Latvia on September 28–30, French President Emmanuel Macron communicated a complex message. On one hand, he reassured both countries of
Belarus a Blip, Russia Looms Large on Macron’s Baltic Visit (Part One)
French President Emmanuel Macron’s meeting with Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouska in Lithuania turned out to be even less than a side-show: a half-hour private meeting, without a joint public
Lukashenka Holds His Own With Putin in Sochi (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russian President Vladimir Putin received his Belarusian counterpart Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Sochi on September 14 (see Part One). Putin emphasized that he
Lukashenka Holds His Own With Putin in Sochi (Part One)
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a lengthy tête-à-tête with his Belarusian counterpart, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, on September 14, in Sochi—their first meeting since the outbreak of mass protests in Belarus against
Russia Poised to Arbitrate Regime Change in Belarus (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Regime change remains Moscow’s political objective in Belarus (see Part One). This is defined as easing out President Alyaksandr Lukashenka with his
Russia Poised to Arbitrate Regime Change in Belarus (Part One)
What looks to the world as another “color revolution,” this time in Belarus after the August 9 presidential election, outgrew and overwhelmed an initial Russian operation against the disobedient President
Conflict Conservation in Ukraine’s Donbas Follows the Transnistria Model (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Elements of the Transnistria conflict-conservation model are taking shape in Ukraine’s Donbas conflict theater, with moves to recast Russia’s state-on-state aggression as an
Conflict Conservation in Ukraine’s East Follows the Transnistria Model (Part One)
“Frozen” is a Western mischaracterization of Russia’s protracted conflict undertakings against Moldova in Transnistria, against Georgia in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and now of the desired end to Russia’s intervention
Zelenskyy Appoints Gerontocrats to Negotiate With Russia in Minsk (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the head of his Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, have chosen former president Leonid Kravchuk (86) to head
Zelenskyy Appoints Gerontocrats to Negotiate With Russia in Minsk (Part One)
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has appointed former president Leonid Kravchuk as chairperson of Ukraine’s delegation to the Minsk Contact Group, the forum that negotiates solutions to Russia’s undeclared war against Ukraine.
The Quick Way to Quasi-Recognition of Donetsk-Luhansk’s Armed Formations: A Play-By-Play Account (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, have de facto acquiesced to the quasi-recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk
The Quick Way to Quasi-Recognition of Donetsk-Luhansk’s Armed Formations: A Play-By-Play Account (Part One)
Open-source evidence makes it possible to trace the steps that led Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, to quasi-recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk “armed formations”
Kozak Celebrates Victory in Rude Letter to Normandy Forum
Russia’s presidential envoy for conflict-management in Ukraine, Dmitry Kozak, has sent a highly undiplomatic letter to his other counterparts in the “Normandy” forum, gloating over bypassing this forum to maneuver
New Ukraine Ceasefire Agreement Officializes Donetsk-Luhansk Militaries (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The agreement on additional measures to strengthen the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, effective from July 27 for an unlimited duration (see Part One
New Ukraine Ceasefire Agreement Officializes Donetsk-Luhansk Militaries (Part One)
Moscow has maneuvered Ukraine’s Presidential Office into quasi-recognizing Russia’s military proxies in “certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions” (Russian and Ukrainian acronym: ORDLO) for the first time. The
Moldova’s Pro-Western Parties: Divided and Enfeebled (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Moldova’s ACUM (“NOW”) bloc of two parties led a minority government in June–November 2019, with parliamentary support from President Igor Dodon’s Socialist
Moldova’s Pro-Western Parties: Divided and Enfeebled (Part One)
Moldova’s Socialist-led government, loyal to the Russophile President Igor Dodon, has narrowly survived a no-confidence motion brought by a stunning combination of parties: the two pro-Western parties of the former
Kremlin Lambastes Ukrainian Deviations From Minsk and Normandy Processes
Chairing a video-conference of the permanent members of the Russian Security Council, President Vladimir Putin expressed “disappointment over the lack of movement to resolve the crisis in Ukraine. Kyiv is
Moscow Declares Pause in Normandy Negotiations on Ukraine
Russia’s presidential envoy for conflict-management in Ukraine, Dmitry Kozak, has unilaterally announced a pause in the Normandy negotiation process, pending “clarifications to Ukraine’s positions.” Kozak’s announcements concluded and followed the
Igor Dodon, Moldova’s Strawman Dictator (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Unlike Moldova’s former de facto ruler, Vladimir Plahotniuc (or president Vladimir Voronin before that), President Igor Dodon seems to have no intention and
Igor Dodon, Moldova’s Strawman Dictator (Part One)
Moldova’s russophile head of state, Igor Dodon, has been driven onto the defensive, along with his Socialist Party and the Socialist-led government, by their political opponents on several fronts. Opposition
Sales and Purchases in Moldova’s Parliamentary Marketplace
Moldova is experiencing a phenomenon that deserves to be termed Plahotniucism without Plahotniuc; at least not up front. From distant safe havens, the fugitive former ruler Vladimir Plahotniuc and his
Kyiv Raising the Level, Accelerating the Pace of the Minsk Process (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Kyiv has raised its delegation to the Minsk Contact Group from a semi-official level to a full-fledged, senior-level governmental and parliamentary delegation.
Kyiv Raising the Level, Accelerating the Pace of the Minsk Process (Part One)
Kyiv is adding Ukrainian citizens from the Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine’s east as members of Kyiv’s delegation to the Minsk Contact Group (see EDM, June 15, 17). But this is
Ukraine Designates Legitimate Representatives of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Minsk Process (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Pro-Ukraine personalities, forcibly displaced from the Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk, participated in the Minsk Contact Group’s extended video-conference session on June 9–15,
Ukraine Designates Legitimate Representatives of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Minsk Process (Part One)
Kyiv has appointed pro-Ukraine refugees from the Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk to represent those territories in the Minsk Contact Group, the forum that negotiates the implementation of the Minsk “agreements.”
Ukraine and Hungary Move to Settle Differences Over National Minority Legislation (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. For almost three years, the Hungarian government has sought to instrumentalize the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and some European Union institutions
Ukraine and Hungary Move to Settle Differences Over National Minority Legislation (Part One)
Kyiv and Budapest have initiated an effort to resolve their differences over the impact of Ukrainian language and education laws on the Hungarian national minority in Ukraine’s Carpathian province (see
Hungary Looks After Its Kin in Ukraine’s Carpathian Province
Ukraine’s Carpathian province (Zakarpattia Oblast) is comparable in certain key respects with Bessarabia in the Odesa province (see EDM, May 28). Zakarpattia is another outlying territory where Kyiv’s influence is
Bessarabia’s ‘Ethnographic Harlequin’ in a Regional Perspective
Ukraine’s ethnic-Bulgarian minority is concentrated in the southwestern part of Ukraine’s Odesa province, an area often if somewhat inaccurately referenced as “Bessarabia.” It forms a triangle between the Dnister/Nistru River,
Bulgaria Takes Issue With Ukraine Over Minority in Odesa Province
The parliament of Bulgaria has adopted a declaration criticizing Ukraine’s policy toward the Bulgarian minority in Odesa province (see EDM, May 26). This move might seem to indicate that Bulgaria
Plutocratic Opposition Surging in Moldova (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Moldova’s fugitive plutocrats, Vladimir Plahotniuc and Ilan Shor, are suddenly fighting back, using their jointly owned “anti-government bloc” in the Moldovan parliament.
Plutocratic Opposition Surging in Moldova (Part One)
Fugitive billionaire Vladimir Plahotniuc’s godson, Andrian Candu, is spearheading an operation to regain a share of power in Moldova, under the guise of a parliamentary coalition. Plahotniuc was Moldova’s de
The Politics of Reform: Saakashvili’s Odesa Mission (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. While Mikheil Saakashvili served as governor of Ukraine’s Odesa Province (May 2015–November 2016), the region presented the former Georgian president with hurdles
The Politics of Reform: Saakashvili’s Odesa Mission (Part One)
Georgia’s former president, Mikheil Saakashvili, has accepted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s offer to chair the Executive Committee of Ukraine’s National Council for Reforms (Ukrinform, May 7). Taking up the new
Russian Loan Offer Exposes Moldova’s Internal Faultlines
In mid-April, Russia offered Moldova, at the latter’s insistence, an inter-governmental loan of €200 million ($217 million) on soft terms. Moldova’s Socialist-led government had planned this loan mainly for road
Russian Loan for Moldova: A Strange Inter-Governmental Agreement
Russia and Moldova signed an inter-governmental loan agreement on April 17, in Moscow, at Chisinau’s insistence. Chisinau had initially sought a Russian loan for infrastructure development, but it may have
Indispensable Oligarchs: Ukraine Turns to Business Leaders to Support Anti-Coronavirus Efforts
Ukraine’s top businessmen are answering President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s call to assist and even lead the country’s efforts to deal with the novel coronavirus pandemic. Zelenskyy had summoned Ukraine’s wealthiest businessmen
Kozak-Yermak Plan on Donbas: The Fine Print
The meeting of the Minsk-based Contact Group, held by videoconference on March 24–26, had been expected to officially create a new negotiating forum, named the Consultative Council—in fact, an accretion
Kyiv Finds an Alibi to Step Back From Kozak-Yermak Plan on Donbas
The COVID-19 coronavirus emergency gives Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a non-political excuse for stepping back from the plan that his envoy, Andriy Yermak, accepted from Russian presidential envoy Dmitry Kozak
Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy Turns Blind Eye to Putin-Medvedchuk Scheming (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Viktor Medvedchuk’s party, Opposition Platform–For Life (OP-FL), holds 44 seats in Ukraine’s 450-seat parliament. Despite its limited support, it is the single-largest
Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy Turns Blind Eye to Putin-Medvedchuk Scheming (Part One)
On March 10, in Moscow, Ukraine’s leading Russophile politician Viktor Medvedchuk conferred with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Duma leaders about adding an “inter-parliamentary dimension” to the Normandy forum (Russia,
Moldova’s Leftist President Moving Steadily Toward the Political Center (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Lacking a parliamentary majority and facing elections later this year, Moldovan President Igor Dodon and
Moldova’s Leftist President Moving Steadily Toward the Political Center (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. President Igor Dodon and his Socialist Party are governing Moldova without a parliamentary majority of their own and having to face two
Moldova’s Leftist President Moving Steadily Toward the Political Center (Part One)
On February 11, in Chisinau, President Igor Dodon assembled Moldova’s ambassadors accredited abroad and delivered policy guidelines to them in two speeches: one to the plenary conference and another to
Kremlin’s New Representative for Ukraine Policy Draws Conclusions From Past Failures
Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed Dmitry Kozak as deputy head of the presidential administration and principal representative for policy toward Ukraine, on top of Kozak’s continuing mission as presidential
Dmitry Kozak, Russia’s New Conflict-Management Viceroy
From Russia’s perspective, the conflicts it has itself instigated in the greater Black Sea region are strictly separate cases. Moscow regards the conflicts over Ukraine’s Crimea and Georgia’s Abkhazia and
Kozak to Replace Surkov as Putin’s Top Aide on Ukraine (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russian President Vladimir Putin has apparently tasked Dmitry Kozak to further develop a negotiation channel with his counterparts in Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Kozak to Replace Surkov as Putin’s Top Aide on Ukraine (Part One)
Russian President Vladimir Putin apparently intends to replace Vladislav Surkov with Dmitry Kozak as principal executant of Putin’s policies toward Ukraine, including Ukraine’s Russian-occupied areas. Surkov and Kozak have also
Ukraine Working out Revisions to the Minsk ‘Accords’ (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russia uses a strict-constructionist approach to defend the Minsk “accords” of 2014 and 2015 and the negotiation formats (“Normandy Quartet” and the
Ukraine Working out Revisions to the Minsk ‘Accords’ (Part One)
In the wake of last month’s (December 2019) “Normandy” summit (see EDM, December 11, 12, 2019), and awaiting the same forum’s April 2020 top-level meeting, Ukrainian officials are airing proposals
Normandy Process Developing Against Ukraine’s Interests
A ticking clock and a shutting trap seem appropriate metaphors for the predicament of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his team hoping against hope for “peace” with Russia. The “Normandy”
Putin and Ukraine’s Black Sea Lands: Another Iteration of Novorossiya?
In his annual press conference, summing up the year just past (Kremlin.ru, December 19, 2019), Russian President Vladimir Putin questioned Ukraine’s title to the territory that Russian nationalists reference as
The OSCE in 2019: Epitaphs to Cooperative Security Doctrines
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has marked this year the 25th anniversary of the OSCE’s Code of Conduct on Politico-Military Aspects of Security, 25th anniversary of
Normandy Summit: Limited Success for Zelenskyy, Temporary Setback for Ukraine (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The four “Normandy format” (Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France) leaders’ post-summit press conference (see Part One, EDM, December 11), unusually lengthy and detailed, allowed
Normandy Summit: Limited Success for Zelenskyy, Temporary Setback for Ukraine (Part One)
On the personal level, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a great impression at the “Normandy” group’s summit in Paris, on December 9. Zelenskyy outshone Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor
Ukrainian President Radically Recasts Negotiations With Russia on Eve of Normandy Summit
The top leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France are meeting in Paris today (December 9), in the “Normandy” format, after a three-year pause at that level. This quadrilateral group
Ukraine Goes to Risk-Fraught Normandy Summit (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Adding to its vulnerabilities vis-à-vis Moscow, Kyiv’s natural gas transit contract with Gazprom expires on December 31. Ukraine’s law on a “special status”
Ukraine Goes to Risk-Fraught Normandy Summit (Part One)
High-level political discussions about “the Ukraine crisis” (a diplomatic euphemism for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine) are scheduled to resume on December 9, in Paris, in the “Normandy” format—Russia, France, Germany,
Moldova’s Broad-Based Governing Coalition Falls Apart (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The collapse of Moldova’s governing coalition (in office from June to November 2019) puts an end to joint governance by political and cultural
Moldova’s Broad-Based Governing Coalition Falls Apart (Part One)
On November 12, Moldovan President Igor Dodon’s Socialist Party joined forces with the opposition Democratic Party (formerly led by the now-fugitive tycoon Vladimir Plahotniuc) to overthrow the ACUM (“NOW”) bloc–led
NATO Shows an Irresolute Flag in Ukraine (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. On October 30–31, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) main political decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council (at the ambassadorial level), visited Ukraine
NATO Shows an Irresolute Flag in Ukraine (Part One)
Ambassadors from the North Atlantic Council— the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) principal political decision-making body—visited Ukraine, on October 30–31, for a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission. Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy’s Mariupol Speech on Donbas Hints at Forthcoming Strategy
Addressing a forum in Mariupol (port city in the Ukrainian-controlled part of the Donetsk province) on October 31, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy outlined an upcoming “state strategy for the reintegration of
The Kremlin to Ukraine: Steinnmeier Formula is Far From Enough
On October 1, in the Minsk Contact Group, Ukraine agreed with the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR) to incorporate the “Steinmeier Formula” into Ukraine’s legislation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy Discusses War and Peace With Russia in Marathon Briefing (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s marathon briefing (14 hours, billed as an all-time world record), in Kyiv, on October 10, was defensive and self-justificatory
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy Discusses War and Peace With Russia in Marathon Briefing (Part One)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suddenly lost American strategic policy mentoring at a juncture where he needs it more than ever. The consequences came starkly to light in Zelenskyy’s 14-hour
Will The OSCE ‘Democratize’ Russia’s Occupation in Ukraine’s Donbas?
Kyiv has co-signed with Russia and the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR) a commitment to: a) accept the holding of “local elections” in that Russian-controlled territory of Ukraine
Russia Entraps Ukraine’s President in the Steinmeier Formula
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has yielded to Russia in accepting the Steinmeier Formula, a procedure for implementing the Minsk “accords” on Russian-defined terms (see EDM, September 17, 24, 25, 26).
President Dodon Introduces Nuances to Moldova’s Neutrality
President Igor Dodon has effectively disavowed Moldova’s sponsorship of the United Nations General Assembly’s (UNGA) resolution, adopted one year ago at Chisinau’s initiative, that called for the withdrawal of Russian
Steinmeier’s Formula: Its Background and Development in the Normandy and Minsk Processes (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. On September 18, in the Minsk Contact Group, the Ukrainian delegation, headed by former president Leonid
Steinmeier’s Formula: Its Background and Development in the Normandy and Minsk Processes (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The Minsk One and Minsk Two “agreements” (September 2014 and February 2015) dictated to Ukraine to accept a constitutional special status for the
Steinmeier’s Formula: Its Background and Development in the Normandy and Minsk Processes (Part One)
Moscow exploits the new Ukrainian leadership’s inexperience as a chance to cement Russian control over Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk territories in a political settlement. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy looks eager for
Putin Overplays Hand With Normandy Summit, Inadvertently Rescues Zelenskyy From the Brink (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The endgame that derailed the summit of “Normandy” group leaders (Russia, Germany, France, Ukraine), planned for September 16, revealed the degree of the
Putin Overplays Hand With Normandy Summit, Inadvertently Rescues Zelenskyy From the Brink (Part One)
The Kremlin has derailed the summit of the “Normandy” group’s leaders (Russia, Germany, France, Ukraine), which was supposed to be held on September 16, in Paris. Apparently, Russian President Vladimir
Russia Imposes Its Own Terms on Ukraine for Release of Prisoners (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Vladimir Tsemakh, who topped Russia’s priority list in a recent prisoner release agreement between Moscow and Kyiv, was flown from Ukraine to the
Russia Imposes Its Own Terms on Ukraine for Release of Prisoners (Part One)
On September 7, Ukraine’s Presidential Office and the Kremlin announced a mutually agreed decision to release 35 prisoners from detention by either side. On the same day, the 35 freed
Moldova’s ‘Hybrid’ Governing Coalition: Physiognomy, Goals, Prospects (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Establishing the rule of law in Moldova will have to start not even from scratch but from the rubble that must be cleared
Moldova’s ‘Hybrid’ Governing Coalition: Physiognomy, Goals, Prospects (Part One)
A coalition of mutually antagonistic parties, “leftist pro-Russia” and “rightist pro-Western”—an unprecedented case in post-Soviet countries or indeed in Europe writ large—took over power in Moldova two months ago (June
Putin’s Ukrainian Ally Medvedchuk Proposes Donbas Autonomy Under Minsk Armistice Terms
On July 17, Viktor Medvedchuk, the leader of the pro-Russia opposition in Ukraine’s newly elected parliament, visited the European Parliament in Strasbourg, where he launched a “Concept Plan to Resolve
The Kremlin Showcases Its Ukrainian Confidant Medvedchuk
Russian President Vladimir Putin is promoting his closest Ukrainian confidant, Viktor Medvedchuk, on the international level. This effort was manifest ahead of Ukraine’s parliamentary elections and is set to continue
Transnistria: ‘Freezing’ as the Lesser Evil (Part Four)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. *To read Part Three, please click here. The 5+2 group—Russia, Ukraine, the Organization for Security
Transnistria: ‘Freezing’ as the Lesser Evil (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. A syndrome of impunity characterizes Transnistria’s attitude toward the Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Transnistria: ‘Freezing’ as the Lesser Evil (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Moldova’s regime change in June 2019 has overtaken some of the key assumptions of Western diplomacy in the Transnistria conflict-settlement negotiations. One Western
Moldova’s President Dodon Casts ‘Federalization’ Aside
Moldova’s Socialist President Igor Dodon seems to have cast aside his old, pet “federalization” project, which would have empowered Transnistria in Chisinau and thereby empowered Russia in a federalized Moldova
Transnistria: ‘Freezing’ as the Lesser Evil (Part One)
Ambassadors from Russia, Ukraine, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the United States, and the European Union, collectively the mediators and observers to the Transnistria conflict-settlement negotiations,
Romania Sees Need to Overhaul Its Policy Toward Moldova (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The Romanian government’s multi-year bet on Vladimir Plahotniuc in Moldova collapsed when his personal power succumbed to internal and external challenges. Warning signs
Romania Sees Need to Overhaul Its Policy Toward Moldova (Part One)
The internationally facilitated regime change in Moldova bypassed Romania entirely, in spite of Romania’s declared special interests toward its eastern neighbor. Bucharest found itself isolated in its support for Moldova’s
Russian Minister Kozak’s Mission in Moldova Unveils Kremlin Vision of Forced Non-Alignment for Europe’s East
Dmitry Kozak, Russian deputy prime minister and special envoy of President Vladimir Putin for Moldovan affairs, visited Moldova twice within three weeks (June 2-4 and 24–25) to facilitate the transition
Moldova’s Regime Change: End of an Era, Uncertain New Start (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Moldova had become a paradigmatic case of state capture under the rule of Vladimir Plahotniuc, in a sequence comparable to what happened
Moldova’s Regime Change: End of an Era, Uncertain New Start (Part One)
The fall of Moldova’s ruler, Vladimir Plahotniuc, this month (see EDM, June 10) concludes a ten-year historical cycle for the country. Ever since the Communist Party’s loss of power in
Kerch Strait Incident: Ukraine Wins Court Ruling Against Russia
On May 25, the Hamburg-based International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) ordered Russia to release and repatriate to Ukraine all 24 sailors and three naval vessels, seized
Moscow Makes an Overture to Ukraine’s Novice President
The interregnum in Kyiv invites probing from Moscow. “Let us start from a clean slate. We are open to dialogue,” the Russian Federation Council’s (upper chamber of the Russian parliament)
Zelensky-Putin Direct Dialogue? A Whiff in the Air
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s inaugural address to the country, delivered on May 20 in the Ukrainian parliament, includes an unprecedented offer to start a direct dialogue with the Kremlin (see EDM,
Ukraine’s New Presidential Administration Filled With Show Business Friends
Ukraine’s elder statesman, Volodymyr Horbulyn, cautioned President-Elect Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of his inauguration that he should not fill the senior presidential staff and top national security posts with his personal
Ukraine’s State Language Law Enshrines the Lingua Franca
On May 15, Ukraine’s outgoing president, Petro Poroshenko, promulgated the “Law on Ensuring the Functioning of the Ukrainian Language as the State Language.” The accompanying communique characterizes this law as
Implacable Adversity: Moscow’s Response to Zelensky’s Election in Ukraine (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Ukraine’s outgoing president, Petro Poroshenko, and the governing coalition (whose mandate is also about to expire) have bequeathed the foundation and building
Implacable Adversity: Moscow’s Response to Zelensky’s Election in Ukraine (Part One)
Moscow is treating Ukraine and its newly elected president, Volodymyr Zelensky, with the same implacable hostility as it did during Petro Poroshenko’s presidency. The Kremlin has not taken even a
Nord Stream Two Company Threatens to Sue the European Commission
The European Commission and its president, Jean-Claude Juncker, are bracing for a May 13 deadline, presented to them on April 12 in a quasi-ultimatum form by Nord Stream Two project
Russia Launches ‘Passportization’ in Occupied Ukrainian Donbas (Part Two)
The Kremlin’s decree, offering Russian citizenship (“passportization”) to residents of the Russian-occupied Donbas (eastern portions of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces), is the latest in the series of legislative and economic
Russia Launches ‘Passportization’ in Occupied Ukrainian Donbas (Part One)
On April 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree—with immediate effect—simplifying the procedure for granting Russia’s citizenship to residents of “certain areas of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk provinces” (Kremlin.ru,
Russia Punishing Ukraine After the Presidential Election
The Kremlin is disappointed and angry with the Ukrainian presidential election’s landslide winner, Volodymyr Zelensky. The president-elect may have over-fulfilled Moscow’s forecasts by defeating the incumbent, President Petro Poroshenko, by
Gazprom Restarts Imports From Turkmenistan After a Long Halt (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Ashgabat undoubtedly sees Russia’s decision to restart the procurement of Turkmenistani natural gas as a welcome opportunity to diversify Turkmenistan’s gas export
Gazprom Restarts Imports From Turkmenistan After a Long Halt (Part One)
On April 15, Gazprom resumed imports of natural gas from Turkmenistan to Russia via the Central Asia–Center pipeline system, after a complete halt of more than three years (Gazprom.com, Oilgas.gov.tm,
Merkel, Macron Plan Meeting With Putin After Ukraine’s Presidential Election
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron each conferred with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Berlin and Paris, respectively, on the same day, April 12, between the two
Does Russia Seek Regime Change in Moldova?
One of the Kremlin’s top propagandists, Dmitry Kiselev, called on March 31 for regime change in Moldova. Speaking on Russian state television, he urged russophile Moldovan President Igor Dodon’s Socialist
Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections: One Silver Lining Amid Multiple Negative Trends (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Cleavages along ethno-linguistic and territorial lines underlying party-political divisions are an enduring characteristic of Moldova’s elections, and were again starkly evident in the
Moldova’s Political Parties Moving Away From Geopolitics
Moldova’s just-concluded parliamentary elections (see EDM, February 26, March 11) have witnessed a “de-geopolitization” of the programs and appeals of political parties to voters. The parties have sidelined geopolitical agendas,
Transnistrian Voting Raid: A Bad Precedent for Moldova and Other Conflict Theaters
Transnistrian penetration of Moldova’s politics is a significant negative change ushered in by Moldova’s February 24 parliamentary elections. An unprecedentedly large number of Transnistrian residents were bussed across the demarcation
Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections: One Silver Lining Amid Multiple Negative Trends (Part One)
Moldova’s parliamentary elections, held on February 24 (three months after the quadrennial term’s expiry), have produced a “hung” parliament divided among four parties, greatly complicating the formation of a new
Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor Interviewed by Haqqin.az
Jamestown Foundation Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor was interviewed by Haqqin.az, on February 19, regarding prospects of Russia's Nord Stream Two natural gas pipeline.
Russia’s Current Political Objectives in Moldova
Moldova’s upcoming parliamentary election (February 24) is a three-cornered contest between de facto state ruler Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party, nominal head of state Igor Dodon’s Socialist Party, and the pro-Western,
Moldova’s Vulnerabilities to Russia Are Primarily Internal
The upcoming Moldovan parliamentary elections (February 24) refocus attention on Russia’s current political objectives toward Moldova and the small country’s own vulnerabilities vis-à-vis Russia. In the general context of Russian
Russia Defends the Minsk Agreements and Status Quo in Ukraine’s East
The new plan for peace in Ukraine’s east, disclosed by Ambassador Martin Sajdik (see EDM, January 30, 2019) and the reactions to it from Kyiv, Moscow, Donetsk and Luhansk (see
OSCE Officials Reveal Concept for International Mission in Ukraine’s East
Moscow is no longer inclined, even pro forma, to consider the terms of a United Nations peace mission in Ukraine’s east. A full year has elapsed since the Kremlin’s negotiator
Russia-Ukraine Gas Transit Talks Look Ahead Post-2020
On January 21, in Brussels, Russia and Ukraine held ministerial-level talks on the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine (TASS, January 22, 2019). The European Commission is
Moscow and Kyiv Respond to German Proposal on the Kerch Strait and Azov Sea (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov seems actually keen for German and French observers to arrive as soon as possible at the Kerch
Moscow and Kyiv Respond to German Proposal on the Kerch Strait and Azov Sea (Part One)
The German government has submitted a revamped proposal for Russia to “ensure” unimpeded shipping through the Kerch Strait and Azov Sea, where Russia’s de facto control is usurping Ukraine’s rights.
Germany Sidelines Ukraine, Negotiates With Russia on the Kerch Strait
On January 18, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas submitted to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in Moscow a freshened-up German proposal for Russia to “ensure” unimpeded shipping through the Kerch
Some Lessons From Germany’s Failed Proposal on the Azov Sea and Kerch Strait
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has offered a sanitized account of the failed “Normandy” meeting (Russia, Ukraine, Germany, France) that discussed the crisis in the Azov Sea and Kerch Strait. The
Russia Says No to OSCE Monitors in the Azov Sea and Kerch Strait
Russia has rejected the German government’s proposal to deploy monitors of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to the Azov Sea and Kerch Strait. The mission would
Azov Sea, Kerch Strait: Evolution of Their Purported Legal Status (Part Four)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. *To Read Part Three, please click here. On November 24, one day before Russia’s November
Azov Sea, Kerch Strait: Evolution of Their Purported Legal Status (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea and the resulting de facto border changes have overturned the
Azov Sea, Kerch Strait: Evolution of Their Purported Legal Status (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The 2003 treaty between Russia and Ukraine on “Cooperation in the Use of the Azov Sea and Kerch Strait,” officially in effect
Azov Sea, Kerch Strait: Evolution of Their Purported Legal Status (Part One)
Russia has perpetrated acts of war against Ukraine in the Kerch Strait and the adjacent portion of the Black Sea on November 25 (see EDM, November 26, 28, 29).
International Ramifications of Donetsk-Luhansk ‘Elections’
Russia has staged “republic“-level “elections” in Donetsk and Luhansk for the second time in four years, establishing a regular quadrennial electoral cycle there. This move is designed to perpetuate the
Russia Recognizes the Donetsk-Luhansk ‘Republics’ in Russia’s Own Hybrid Way
The Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” (DPR, LPR) staged pseudo-presidential and pseudo-parliamentary elections on November 11 (see EDM, November 15), pursuant to decisions handed down from the Kremlin in early
Elections Staged in Ukraine’s East Under Russian Control
Kremlin-orchestrated, internationally unrecognized “elections” were held on November 11 in the Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” (DPR, LPR), Russian-controlled territories in Ukraine’s east. The final returns, made public on November
De-Sovereignization: Testing a Conflict-Resolution Model at Moldova’s Expense in Transnistria (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The 5+2 negotiation format—comprised of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Russia and Ukraine as mediators; the United States
De-Sovereignization: Testing a Conflict-Resolution Model at Moldova’s Expense in Transnistria (Part One)
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has functioned under Russia-friendly chairmanships in the last three years: Germany (2016), Austria (2017) and Italy (2018). The heavyweight German chairmanship,
Moldova: Federalization’s Ghosts Return From the Past
Yevgeny Primakov and Dmitry Kozak, names identified with Russia’s past attempts to “federalize” Moldova with Transnistria (1997 “Primakov Plan Memorandum”; 2003 “Kozak Plan Memorandum”), are now returning to Moldova in
Moscow-Controlled ‘Elections’ In Ukraine’s Donetsk-Luhansk: Some International Implications
The Kremlin has announced its decision to stage “elections” in the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR) in November, and has launched preparations for such elections (see EDM,
Change at the Top Exposes the Politics of Donetsk-Luhansk ‘People’s Republics’ (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The unexplained assassination of the Donetsk “People’s Republic” leader, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, on August 31 (see Part One) provoked a factional commotion in
Change at the Top Exposes the Politics of Donetsk-Luhansk ‘People’s Republics’ (Part One)
The leader of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” (DPR), Aleksandr Zakharchenko, was assassinated by a bomb blast on August 31, after almost four years of continuous service to the Russian occupation
Putin and Merkel Discuss Nord Stream, Ukraine, Syria in a Changing Strategic Context (Part Two)
The war in Ukraine’s east was the topic that Merkel placed at the top of her remarks at the August 18 Berlin-Meseberg meeting with Putin (see Part One). Putin relegated
Putin and Merkel Discuss Nord Stream, Ukraine, Syria in a Changing Strategic Context (Part One)
German Chancellor Angela Merkel uncharacteristically interrupted her summer vacation to receive Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 18, 2018, at Meseberg Castle, near Berlin. It was the second Merkel-Putin meeting
Georgia Plans Its ‘To Do’ Agenda for NATO
United States President Donald Trump’s behavior at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) recent summit in Brussels (July 11–12) and in its aftermath has cast a shadow on this landmark
The United States Does the Heavy Lifting for NATO in Georgia
United States President Donald Trump’s behavior at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) recent summit in Brussels (July 11–12) and in its aftermath has cast a shadow on this landmark
Pillar of NATO: Romania’s Ambition in the Black Sea Region
United States President Donald Trump’s behavior at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) recent summit in Brussels (July 11–12) and in its aftermath has cast a shadow on this landmark
NATO Summit Puts Black Sea Strategy on Hold for Another Year (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. United States President Donald Trump’s behavior at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) recent summit in Brussels (July 11–12) and in its
Turkey Stalls NATO, Clings to Defunct Status Quo in the Black Sea
United States President Donald Trump’s behavior at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) recent summit in Brussels (July 11–12) and in its aftermath has cast a shadow on this landmark
NATO in Ukraine: High Strategic Stake, Irresolute Engagement
United States President Donald Trump’s behavior at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) recent summit in Brussels (July 11–12) and in its aftermath has cast a shadow on this landmark
NATO-Ukraine-Georgia Summit Breaks New Ground Despite Disruptions
United States President Donald Trump’s behavior at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) recent summit in Brussels (July 11–12) and in its aftermath has cast a shadow on this landmark
NATO Summit Puts Black Sea Strategy on Hold for Another Year (Part One)
United States President Donald Trump’s behavior at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) recent summit in Brussels (July 11–12) and in its aftermath has cast a shadow on this landmark
Trump’s Brusque Posturing on EU Risks Affecting Security of NATO
United States President Donald Trump’s behavior at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) recent summit in Brussels (July 11–12) and in its aftermath has cast a shadow on this landmark
NATO Summit Highlights Partnership With the EU
United States President Donald Trump’s behavior at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) recent summit in Brussels (July 11–12) and in its aftermath has cast a shadow on this landmark
OSCE’s Year-End Conference Fails to Deal With Ongoing Conflicts
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) annual ministerial conference, held on December 7–8, in Vienna, exposed yet again the 57-member international organization’s incapacity to hold its own
Moldova’s New Electoral Law Could Be Fatal to Pro-Western Parties (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Moldova’s new electoral legislation—“Law for Amending and Completing Certain Legislative Acts [i.e. the Electoral Code]”—is the outcome of a bargain between the country’s
Moldova’s New Electoral Law Could Be Fatal to Pro-Western Parties (Part One)
On July 20, Moldova’s parliament changed the country’s Electoral Code, with an eye to the 2018 parliamentary elections. The new legislation—the “Law for Amending and Completing Certain Legislative Acts [i.e.
Putin, Merkel Exchange Views on Ukraine in Sochi (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Aiming for progress on the political implementation of the Minsk armistice (“to which we have no alternative”) was not the ambition of German
Putin, Merkel Exchange Views on Ukraine in Sochi (Part One)
German Chancellor Angela Merkel took the initiative to visit Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi on May 2. The German agenda included preparations for the upcoming G-20 summit in Germany
The Battle for Avdiivka: Ukrainian Assessment and Context
Ukrainian forces have prevailed in the defensive battle for Avdiivka (January 28–February 4), preserving the gains on the ground achieved through “crawling advances” prior to this battle (see EDM, February
‘Crawling Advance’: A New Tactic of Ukrainian Troops in Donbas
The assault on the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka (January 28–February 4) was a combined-arms operation by Russia’s proxy forces, aiming to reverse the recent Ukrainian gains on the ground
Merkel-Poroshenko Meeting Shows Deep Freeze of ‘Normandy’ Negotiations
German Chancellor Angela Merkel received Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on January 30, in Berlin, for an “exchange of views” on the “conflict in Ukraine,” “the peace process and the implementation
Muscovite Socialist, National Oligarch: A Moldovan Symbiosis
Moldovan President Igor Dodon’s visit to the Kremlin (see EDM, January 26) fell short of its main goal—that of strengthening Dodon’s and his Socialist Party’s position in Moldovan domestic politics.
Moldova’s President in the Kremlin: A Snapshot of Moldova-Russia Relations
Moldovan President Igor Dodon chose Moscow for his visit abroad, following his election on an aggressively pro-Russia program and an invitation from President Vladimir Putin (see accompanying article). Staged by
Putin Blesses Moldova’s President in Moscow
Moldova’s recently elected, vocally pro-Russia head of state, Igor Dodon, paid an official visit to President Vladimir Putin, in Moscow, on January 16–19. It was an unusually long and elaborately
Moldovan Legislative Changes to Reinforce the State Capture
Moldova’s Socialist leader Igor Dodon won the presidential election on November 13, was duly confirmed by the Constitutional Court as president-elect on December 13, and is due to be sworn
Moldova’s De Facto Ruler Enthrones Pro-Russia President
On December 13, Moldova’s Constitutional Court validated the election of Socialist Party leader Igor Dodon as head of state, one full month after the November 13 presidential election runoff. The
NATO’s New Force Posture in the Baltic Region: Pluses and Minuses (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. It was a summit of modest expectations and modest results for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Warsaw on July 8–9. These
NATO’s New Force Posture in the Baltic Region: Pluses and Minuses
It was a summit of modest expectations and modest results for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Warsaw on July 8–9. These results are of an interim nature: building-blocks
NATO-Georgia: Varied Menu, Uncertain Financing
It was a summit of modest expectations and modest results for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Warsaw on July 8–9. These results are of an interim nature: building-blocks
NATO Aspirant Georgia Still Defenseless After All These Years
It was a summit of modest expectations and modest results for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Warsaw on July 8–9. These results are of an interim nature: building-blocks
NATO-Georgia: The Open Door Policy’s Failing Test (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. It was a summit of modest expectations and modest results for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Warsaw on July 8–9. These
NATO-Georgia: The Open Door Policy’s Failing Test (Part One)
It was a summit of modest expectations and modest results for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Warsaw on July 8–9. These results are of an interim nature: building-blocks
NATO Can Refloat Romania’s Black Sea Naval Initiative (Part Three)
*To read Part Two, please click here. It was a summit of modest expectations and modest results for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Warsaw on July 8–9. These
NATO Can Refloat Romania’s Black Sea Naval Initiative (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. It was a summit of modest expectations and modest results for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Warsaw on July 8–9. These
NATO Can Refloat Romania’s Black Sea Naval Initiative (Part One)
It was a summit of modest expectations and modest results for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Warsaw on July 8–9. These results are of an interim nature: building
NATO’s Summit Takes Half-Way Measures on the Black Sea Region (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. It was a summit of modest expectations and modest results for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Warsaw on July 8–9. These
NATO’s Summit Takes Half-Way Measures on the Black Sea Region (Part One)
It was a summit of modest expectations and modest results for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Warsaw on July 8–9. These results are of an interim nature: building
US Diplomacy, Ukraine Diverge on the Minsk ‘Agreement’
US Secretary of State John Kerry’s public message in Kyiv on July 7 (see accompanying article) reaffirms, broadly, the talking points that Assistant Secretary Victoria Nuland had been delivering in
John Kerry’s Unwelcome Message in Ukraine
US Secretary of State John Kerry and Assistant Secretary Victoria Nuland held talks with President Petro Poroshenko and other Ukrainian officials, in Kyiv on July 7. At the joint news
US, Russia Reactivate Bilateral Negotiations on Ukraine (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. President Barack Obama’s administration seems to pursue two contradictory goals: support Ukraine’s sovereignty and security in general terms but, at the same time,
US, Russia Reactivate Bilateral Negotiations on Ukraine (Part One)
US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland completed another round of shuttle diplomacy in Kyiv and Moscow (June 22–24), following up on her visits to the two capitals in April
The Black Sea Region: NATO’s Exposed Sector on the Eastern Flank (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Newly entrenched on the Crimean peninsula, Russia has appropriated the title to large parts of Ukraine’s continental shelf and exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
The Black Sea Region: NATO’s Exposed Sector on the Eastern Flank (Part One)
Aspirationally at least, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is transitioning from reassurance measures to a more serious deterrence posture on the Alliance’s “Eastern flank” vis-à-vis Russia. Decisions in this
Ukraine Insists on International Police Mission in Donetsk-Luhansk
The top leaders of Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine (the “Normandy Group”) conferred by telephone on the night of May 23–24, at Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s initiative. Poroshenko sought an
Surkov-Nuland Talks on Ukraine: A Nontransparent Channel (Part One)
Informal discussions are sputtering along between Washington and Moscow over implementation of the Minsk armistice in Ukraine. This bilateral process originated in May 2015 as an accompaniment to the Barack
Normandy Meeting Aborts Ukraine’s Proposal on OSCE Police Mission
Russia, Germany, France, and Ukraine held an expanded meeting of their foreign affairs ministers and senior staffs on May 11 in Berlin (the “Normandy” format). Two overlapping issues topped the
Ukraine Develops Its Case Against Elections in the ‘People’s Republics’
The “Normandy” powers’ (Ukraine, Germany, France, Russia) latest meeting, in Berlin, on May 11, which failed to address Ukraine’s concerns, has stiffened Kyiv’s refusal to go along with local “elections”
Romania Bidding for Influence in Moldova (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Although its power seems firmly entrenched, Vlad Plahotniuc’s government needs some external legitimacy and urgent financial
Romania Bidding for Influence in Moldova (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Romania has surged as a political player in the Republic of Moldova in recent months, for the first time in a quarter-century (see
Romania Bidding For Influence In Moldova (Part One)
For the first time since the fall of communism in Romania and the Soviet Union (1989, 1991), Romania has become an active contestant for influence in its own right in
Police Mission in Ukraine’s East: An OSCE Milestone?
Ukraine wants the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to consider deploying an international, armed police mission in the secessionist Donetsk-Luhansk territory. The declared rationale is to provide
Ukraine Seeks Armed Police Mission of OSCE in Donetsk-Luhansk
Ukraine is asking for an international, armed police mission under Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) auspices, to be deployed in the secessionist Donetsk-Luhansk territory. Russia and its
Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone: A Long Gestation (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Western nuclear powers have expressed objections regarding several provisions of the Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (CANWFZ) Treaty (US State Department, Treaties Data Base
Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone: A Long Gestation (Part One)
Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev participated in the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, on March 30–April 2, where he met with United States President Barack Obama (Kazinform, April 2). Kazakhstan
Berlin, Paris Side With Moscow Against Kyiv In Normandy Group’s Meeting
As anticipated (see EDM, February 26), the “Normandy” meeting on March 3–4, in Paris, cornered Ukraine to extract its acceptance of “elections” in the Russian-occupied territory. German Minister of Foreign
Turkey-Greece-Italy Interconnector: South Stream’s Latest Avatar? (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. The Interconnector Turkey–Greece–Italy (ITGI-Poseidon) was one of several rival projects competing to launch the European Union–backed
Turkey–Greece–Italy Interconnector: South Stream’s Latest Avatar? (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Three, please click here. Russian Gazprom, Greek DEPA/DESFA, and Italian Edison propose a modified version of Gazprom’s South Stream project,
Turkey-Greece-Italy Interconnector: South Stream’s Latest Avatar? (Part One)
Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the South Stream gas export project in 2007. All along, Russia lacked the gas volumes and financing that this gigantic project presupposed. Moscow poured all
Gazprom Promotes Greece–Italy Transit Route to Obstruct European Corridor
On February 24, in Rome, the chief executives of Russian Gazprom, Italian Edison (electricity conglomerate, 99 percent owned by Électricité de France) and Greek DEPA (national pipeline operator and gas
Berlin and Paris Soften up Kyiv Ahead of ‘Decisive’ Normandy Meeting
In Kyiv, on February 22–23, with a working visit, German Minister of Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier portrayed the “Normandy” group’s upcoming March 3 meeting in Paris as a make-or-break event,
Ukrainian Says No Elections Without Full Security in Donetsk-Luhansk
Negotiations in the Minsk Contact Group on political issues are so configured as to push Ukraine into recognizing the Moscow-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR), first de facto
Surkov and Gryzlov: Russia’s New Negotiators on Ukraine (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russia’s new representative in the Minsk Contact Group “on the implementation of the peace plan in the East of Ukraine,” Boris Gryzlov, has
Surkov and Gryzlov: Russia’s New Negotiators on Ukraine (Part One)
Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently appointed Vladislav Surkov and Boris Gryzlov to negotiate—in two separate formats—an outcome to Russia’s war in Ukraine’s east (Censor.net.ua, January 15, 2016; TASS, December
Munich Security Conference Debates Russia’s War in Ukraine (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. During the Munich Security Conference, the Barack Obama administration’s messages about Ukraine were inevitably affected by being paired with entreaties for Russian cooperation
Munich Security Conference Debates Russia’s War in Ukraine (Part One)
Russia’s seizure of Ukrainian territories, and its continuing military operations in Ukraine’s east, receded from center stage at the Munich Security Conference on February 12–14. Instead, the calamities visited upon
Russia Watches and Puts Own Spin on Moldova’s Crisis (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Western officials and commentators seem, on the whole, to overestimate Russia’s capacity and intentions to recapture Moldova by exploiting that country‘s current crisis.
Russia Watches and Puts Own Spin on Moldova’s Crisis (Part One)
Many international observers anticipated that Russia would move to exploit the anti-government protests in Moldova in order to (as the assumptions went) “destabilize Moldova’s pro-Europe government,” “halt and derail Moldova’s
Moldovan Anti-Government Protests Unify Pro-Western, Pro-Russia Groups Across Ethnic Lines (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Drawing together citizens of various ethnicities, divergent political affiliations, and fluid views on Moldova’s ultimate orientation (see Part One, EDM, January 28), recent
Moldovan Anti-Government Protests Unify Pro-Western, Pro-Russia Groups Across Ethnic Lines (Part One)
From January 20 through 24, tens of thousands of angry protesters rallied in Chisinau each day in -10° C (14° Fahrenheit) temperature to demand the resignation of the just-installed government,
Regime Change in Moldova: Accomplished but Not Irreversible
On January 20, the Moldovan parliament approved the new government amid violent protests outside the building and opposition protests in the chamber. A presentation of the new government’s program and
Moldova: President Versus Plutocrat
Moldova’s presidency remains the last institutional obstacle to a full takeover of power by the country’s wealthiest businessman, Vladimir Plahotniuc, and his entourage. The latter controls key positions in the
Plahotniuc Reshuffles Moldova’s Parliament, Claims Prime Minister’s Post
Moldova’s wealthiest businessman and shadowy politician, Vladimir Plahotniuc, finally stepped into the limelight on January 13 and announced his candidacy for the post of prime minister (Unimedia, IPN, January 13).
Plahotniuc’s Power Base in Moldova: Allies and Instruments (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Moldovan billionaire Vladimir Plahotniuc, the de facto head of the Democratic Party of Moldova, has, over the past year, built up a strong
Plahotniuc’s Power Base in Moldova: Allies and Instruments (Part One)
The political influence of billionaire businessman Vladimir Plahotniuc expanded seemingly unstoppably in Moldova’s state institutions and political system during the year just past (see EDM, October 19, 2015; November 3,
Moldova Ungoverned, Close to State Failure
Literally in the final days of 2015, a new political constellation has emerged on the center-right of Moldova’s party spectrum that might yet open a way out from state failure.
Conserved Conflict: Russia’s Innovations in Ukraine’s East
Russia’s conflict undertaking in Ukraine’s east fits within patterns familiar from other post-Soviet conflicts, initiated by Russia and conserved on Russian terms with international assistance (see EDM, December 17). However,
Conserved Conflict: Russia’s Pattern in Ukraine’s East
Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine’s east—directly and by proxy—has saddled Ukraine with a “frozen” conflict in its Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. The parallel situation in Crimea also qualifies as a
The End of Russia’s ‘International Isolation’: Potential Implications for Ukraine
The Islamist terrorist assault in Paris on November 13, traced in part to the Syria crisis, has conclusively broken what the Barack Obama administration had claimed to be Russia’s international
Russia’s Intervention in Syria: Potential Implications for Ukraine
Russia is angling for recognition as the West’s ally in combating “international terrorism.” This, ostensibly, is the rationale of Russia’s military intervention in Syria—an operation made possible by the forfeiture
State Capture, Failing State: Moldova’s Twin Processes (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The latest public opinion survey, commissioned by the US International Republican Institute (IRI), confirms a deepening chasm between the “pro-Europe” coalition government and
State Capture, Failing State: Moldova’s Twin Processes (Part One)
Moldova’s internal collapse is, at last, concentrating the West’s attention. Western officials are generally surprised and aghast. They worry, moreover, about the potential repercussions in the region: Moldova does, after
Normandy Group Micromanaging Fake ‘Election’ Preparations in Donetsk-Luhansk
Germany’s Foreign Affairs Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier hosted a meeting of his Russian, French, and Ukrainian counterparts (“Normandy” group), on November 6, in Berlin, to lift the December deadline on the
Minsk Armistice Implementation in Ukraine Officially Postponed
Meeting on November 6, in Berlin, the ministers of foreign affairs of the “Normandy” group (Russia, Germany, France, Ukraine) finally acknowledged that the Minsk armistice cannot be implemented by this
Moldovan Billionaire Overthrows Coalition Government From Within (Part Two)
Moldova is experiencing a political coup, executed by billionaire Vlad Plahotniuc’s team within the “pro-Europe” coalition government, and coordinated with leftist and pro-Russia parties in the parliament and outside it.
Moldovan Billionaire Overthrows Coalition Government From Within (Part One)
Moldova seems about to become the second state in Europe’s East, after Georgia, to be captured by the wealthiest local businessman—in Moldova’s case, the billionaire Vlad Plahotniuc. He and Georgia’s
The Sine Qua Non Safeguards For Donetsk-Luhansk Elections
On October 27 in the Minsk Contact Group, the Ukrainian delegation presented a concept document to serve as a basis for the “law on local elections in the temporarily occupied
Minsk Process Refloats Donetsk-Luhansk Election Plans
Recasting Russia’s armed proxies as democratic mandate-holders—and tutoring them to look like that on an election’s schedule—is an innovation of the Minsk armistice and ensuing negotiations on the status of
Putin Wants Ukraine to Renegotiate Terms Directly With Donetsk-Luhansk
Ukraine held local elections, on October 25, throughout the country, including most of the government-controlled territory in the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, but not in the Russian-controlled territory of those
Moldovan Billionaire Plahotniuc Gaining More Political Power
In a country as bereft of leadership talent as Moldova turned out to be, Liberal-Democrat Party leader Vlad Filat’s resignation over corruption charges and his arrest leaves a vacuum in
Moldovan Political Leader Filat Arrested in Intra-Coalition Coup
Moldova is theoretically a parliamentary republic, but its parliament was in recess for two and a half months, hiding away from the economy’s collapse, uncontrollable corruption, loss of the political
Russian Hybrid War, Euro-Hybrid Democracy in Ukraine’s East (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande have prevailed on Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to accommodate pseudo-elections
Russian Hybrid War, Euro-Hybrid Democracy in Ukraine’s East (Part One)
Moscow has instructed the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR-LPR) to postpone the local “elections” that were scheduled for October 18 and November 1 in that Russian-controlled territory of Ukraine.
Moldova’s Regime-Change Movements: Pro-Russia Ascendant, Pro-West Losing Steam (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The pro-Europe civil-society group, “Platform for Dignity and Truth,” introduced the demands for new parliamentary and presidential elections to be held in Moldova
Moldova’s Regime-Change Movements: Pro-Russia Ascendant, Pro-West Losing Steam (Part One)
As anticipated from the outset (see EDM, September 9), the pro-Europe “Platform for Dignity and Truth” in Moldova has: 1) steadily lost steam in its effort to replace Moldova’s declared
Nord Stream Two in Ukrainian Perspective
At Russia’s initiative, the Nord Stream Two natural gas pipeline project has advanced from agreements of intent to a binding agreement; and Gazprom has formed the project consortium with several
Nord Stream Two: The Project’s Implications in Europe (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. According to the European Union’s Energy Commissioner Miguel Arias Cañete, Ukraine is a “reliable transit country,”
Nord Stream Two: The Project’s Implications in Europe (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Within Germany, Nord Stream has spawned a system of gas transmission pipelines and storage sites, dedicated to handling Gazprom’s gas en route to
Nord Stream Two: The Project’s Implications in Europe (Part One)
Russia, Germany and a consortium of Western European companies have re-activated the Gazprom-led Nord Stream Two gas pipeline project. Parallel to the existing Nord Stream One pipeline on the Baltic
Nord Stream Expansion Agreed, Wintershall Swapped to Gazprom (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The agreement to build the Nord Stream Two gas pipeline marks a return to business as usual with the Kremlin in a political
Nord Stream Expansion Agreed, Wintershall Swapped to Gazprom (Part One)
Germany is leading Western Europe’s return to business as usual with Russia in the natural gas sector, notwithstanding Russia’s war in Ukraine. On September 4, at the Vladivostok economic forum,
Toppling Moldova’s Government: Popular Movement or Political Operation?
Since September 6, protesters have set up a tent city—it has grown to at least 150 tents to date—in Chisinau’s main square, outside the Moldovan government’s building. Leading the protest
Russia Spurns Ukrainian Offer of Constitutional Status for Donetsk-Luhansk
Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected Ukraine’s offer of constitutional status for the Donetsk-Luhansk territory as unacceptable. Addressing an international economic forum in Vladivostok, on his way back from China
Action Plan to End War in Ukraine Charted at Berlin Meeting (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. On August 24, German Chancellor Angela Merkel called together a unique meeting, in Berlin, of the “Normandy” format minus Russia (though essentially in
Action Plan to End War in Ukraine Charted at Berlin Meeting (Part One)
An overall consensus, in broad outline, seems to have taken shape among the main European players, pre-eminently Moscow and Berlin, to accelerate a solution to the conflict “in” Ukraine by
Putin Absent, His Agenda Dominates at Normandy Group Meeting on Ukraine
German Chancellor Angela Merkel hosted Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and French President François Hollande, on August 24, in Berlin (“Normandy” format minus Russia), at Poroshenko’s urgent request. This unprecedented meeting
Shyrokyne ‘Demilitarized Zone’: Russia’s New Idea of Conflict-Management in Ukraine’s East
Russia proposes to turn the Ukrainian stronghold Shyrokyne, key to defending the strategic Azov sea port city of Mariupol (Mariupil), into a “demilitarized zone” under joint or shared control by
Shyrokyne: Strategic Asset, Political Symbol on Ukraine’s Azov Sea Coast
The Contact Group on Ukraine (Minsk Group) has recently been debating a proposal to turn the Ukrainian stronghold Shyrokyne, key to defending the Azov Sea port city of Mariupol (Mariupil),
Ukraine Skeptical Toward Buffer Zone Proposal in Minsk Contact Group
Soon after the signing of the Minsk Two armistice (February 2015), the Minsk Contact Group began considering a further set of military disengagement measures in Ukraine’s east. The Minsk Contact
Minsk Ceasefire Unenforceable, Unverifiable in Ukraine’s Russian-Controlled Territory
On August 10, a battalion-sized strike force supported by artillery and armor of the Russian-led “Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”) attempted to break through Ukrainian lines at Starohnativka, on the distant
Obama Administration Placates Russia on Ukraine
Diplomacy by the United States and Western Europe has recently intensified pressure on Ukraine to legitimize the Russian-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (see EDM, July 31). Meanwhile, Moscow has
Ukraine Is Asked to Provide Legal Cover for Donetsk-Luhansk ‘Elections’
Moscow is prepared to orchestrate local elections in the “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk (“DPR, LPR”), separately from Ukraine’s upcoming local elections. Donetsk and Luhansk announced this intention in
Elections in the Donetsk-Luhansk ‘People’s Republics’ Have No Legal Basis
Local elections are looming in the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (“DPR, LPR”) in October. If validated internationally, such elections could lead to internal Ukrainian constitutional negotiations that would preserve
Elections in Donetsk-Luhansk ‘People’s Republics’ And Russia’s New Conflict-Freeze Model
Western governments regularly disagree with the Kremlin over the meaning of democracy and free elections. Nevertheless, Western diplomacy currently supports Moscow’s goal for local elections to be staged in the
Elections in Ukraine’s Secessionist Territory: A Topic of International Negotiation (Part Two)
To read Part One, please click here. At this point, Moscow seems content to watch Western diplomats urging Kyiv to legitimize the Donetsk-Luhansk authorities through local elections, and (as a
Elections in Ukraine’s Secessionist Territory: A Topic of International Negotiation (Part One)
Ukraine is scheduled to hold local elections throughout the country (except the Russian-occupied territories) on October 25—the first such elections since the advent of a Western-oriented Ukrainian government. Under Ukrainian
Ukraine Accepts Constitutional Amendment to Russia’s Advantage at US Insistence
The international context of negotiations to implement the Minsk armistice is changing in Russia’s favor. As the leading Western power, the Barack Obama administration effectively pressures Ukraine to legitimize the
Obama Administration Undercutting Ukraine’s Position in the Minsk Armistice Negotiations
Urged by US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland in Kyiv last week, Ukraine took a first step toward legalizing the secessionist authorities in the country’s constitution (see EDM, July
Minsk Armistice: Enforced at Ukraine’s Expense?
In Kyiv, on July 15–16, US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland prevailed on President Petro Poroshenko and parliamentary leaders to accept constitutional liabilities toward the Russian-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk
Berlin, Paris Seek Constitutional Status for Donetsk-Luhansk in Ukraine
Twice in recent days (July 10 and 14), German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande have jointly demarched Kyiv to, first, legalize the Donetsk-Luhansk authorities in Ukraine’s constitution,
President Poroshenko, Governor Saakashvili Assess Situation in Odesa (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has entrusted Georgia’s former president, Mikheil Saakashvili, with jolting Odesa province from backwardness into modernity, and to try this
President Poroshenko, Governor Saakashvili Assess Situation in Odesa (Part One)
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, the United States’ ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, and Bulgarian President Rosen Plevneliev descended on Odesa in separate visits (July 2–July 8), to confer with Governor
Ukraine’s Constitutional Reform Precludes Federalization or Special Status for Donetsk-Luhansk
On July 1, President Petro Poroshenko made public the draft amendments to Ukraine’s Constitution, regarding decentralization of the country’s administrative-territorial system (Kyiv Post, July 1). The amendments redefine the relationship
Donetsk, Luhansk ‘People’s Republics’ Announce Local Elections Outside the Minsk Process
The “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk (“DPR, LPR”) have announced their intentions to stage local elections, outside Ukraine’s constitutional and legal framework, on their respective territories. This move continues
Net Setback for Moldova and Its Reforms in the Latest Elections (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Politician Renato Usatii is a native of Moldova but is a product of the Vladimir Putin
Net Setback for Moldova and Its Reforms in the Latest Elections (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The local elections, just held country-wide in Moldova (see Part One in EDM, July 1), confirm an incipient tendency toward political-territorial fragmentation of
Net Setback for Moldova and Its Reforms in the Latest Elections (Part One)
Moldova would not be the country of procedural democracy it is, were it not to suffer from the syndrome of permanent elections, dictated by government crises and calendar dates in
Kremlin Opens New Phase in Its War Against Ukraine
Moscow is growing impatient with Ukraine’s unwillingness to legalize the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” and rewrite Ukraine’s constitution to their and Moscow’s satisfaction. The Minsk Two armistice, imposed on
Governor Saakashvili Unveils Reform Agenda in Ukraine’s Odesa Province
Following his appointment as governor of Odesa province by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko (see EDM, June 2, 4, 5), Georgia’s former president Mikheil Saakashvili has outlined his policy priorities in
Saakashvili Grapples With Daunting Odds in Ukraine’s Odesa
Three weeks ago, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko appointed Georgia’s former president, Mikheil Saakashvili, as governor of Ukraine’s Odesa province, with a dual mission: to jump-start reforms based on his experience
Bringing Belarus Back in From the Cold (Part Four)
To read Part One, please click here.To read Part Two, please click here.To read Part Three, please click here. To help lessen Belarus’s economic dependence on Russia, and reach out
Bringing Belarus Back in From the Cold (Part Three)
To read Part One, please click here.To read Part Two, please click here. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s policy is one of benevolent neutrality sympathetic toward Ukraine in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Bringing Belarus Back in From the Cold (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Its membership in the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) serves Belarus, to some extent, as a form of political insurance vis-à-vis Russia. This
Bringing Belarus Back in From the Cold (Part One)
At the European Union’s Eastern Partnership summit in Riga (May 21–22), the EU’s neighborhood and enlargement policies came to a grinding halt. To some extent this is an effect of
Ukrainian Government Enlists Georgian Talent
President Petro Poroshenko and the government of Arseniy Yatsenyuk have invited a significant number of foreign experts to take up government posts and design the reforms in Ukraine. Appointing and
Mikheil Saakashvili Appointed Governor of Ukraine’s Odesa Province (Part Two)
To read Part One, please click here. For all their personal friendship, President Petro Poroshenko’s appointment of Mikheil Saakashvili as governor of Odesa province in Ukraine is the ultimate merit-based
Mikheil Saakashvili Appointed Governor of Ukraine’s Odesa Province (Part One)
On May 30, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko appointed Mikheil Saakashvili, former president of Georgia, as chairman of the state administration (governor) of Ukraine’s Odesa province. On the preceding day, Poroshenko
Donetsk, Luhansk ‘People’s Republics’ Seek International Legitimization Through Local Elections (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The armistice signed in Minsk on February 12, 2015, (Minsk Two agreement) opens the way for staging local elections in the Donetsk and
Donetsk, Luhansk ‘People’s Republics’ Seek International Legitimization Through Local Elections (Part One)
The possible international recognition of “elections” staged in the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (“DPR, LPR”) is one of the major innovations of the Minsk Two armistice agreement on Ukraine.
Donetsk, Luhansk Propose Amendments to Ukraine’s Constitution
On May 12, the Russian-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR) jointly presented their proposals for changing Ukraine’s Constitution. Their documents avoid using the terms “DPR” and “LPR,” even
Minsk Armistice in Ukraine Advances to Political Phase
Moscow, Berlin, some other Western European capitals, and most recently, US Secretary of State John Kerry are growing eager to see the Minsk Two agreement’s political phase starting in Ukraine.
Working Groups on Ukraine: Tentacles of the Minsk Process
A new format of negotiations between the Ukrainian government and the Moscow-controlled “people’s republics” began operating on May 14 in Minsk (Osce.org, Interfax, Ukrinform, May 14). Four specialized Working Groups
Kazakhstan’s Presidential Election and the Challenges Ahead (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Kazakhstan’s state-founding President Nursultan Nazarbayev has been re-elected to what is widely assumed to be his
Kazakhstan’s Presidential Election and the Challenges Ahead (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The re-election of President Nursultan Nazarbayev (see EDM, April 30, May 8) has renewed and bolstered the presidential institution’s popular mandate to tackle
Kazakhstan’s Presidential Election and the Challenges Ahead (Part One)
On April 26, 2015, Kazakhstan held its fifth presidential election in a quarter-century of independent statehood (see EDM, April 30). Incumbent President Nursultan Nazarbayev was re-elected overwhelmingly for another five-year
Putin Outlines Current Policy Toward Ukraine (Part Two)
Addressing Russia’s populace and, implicitly, Ukraine in his annual phone-in dialogue (see Part One in EDM, April 23), Russian President Vladimir Putin torpedoed the Minsk Two agreement beyond repair: “I
Putin Outlines Current Policy Toward Ukraine (Part One)
In his annual phone-in conversation with Russia’s populace and in follow-up interviews, President Vladimir Putin has expounded at length on Russia’s current policy objectives regarding Ukraine (Interfax, Kremlin.ru, April 16,
Moldova Risks Opening Pandora’s Box With ‘National-Cultural’ Districts
The Gagauz autonomous territory, instituted in 1994, is the only jurisdiction with ethnic autonomy in Moldova. Adjacent to the Gagauz territory, the Bulgarian-majority district (“raion”) of Taraclia has no particular
‘National-Cultural’ Enclaves: Moscow’s New Game in Ukrainian-Moldovan Borderland
Russia demands a “special status” for certain territories in Ukraine and Moldova as a device to promote territorial secession processes. Moscow encourages local Russophile groups to claim a “special territorial
Ukraine Defuses Pro-Russia Instigations in Odesa Province
President Petro Poroshenko recently instructed the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) to “nip any separatist organizations in the bud […] so that Ukraine should not again have to pay a
Ukraine Rapidly Dismantling Gazprom’s Supply Monopoly
Quantitative indicators show a dramatic reorientation of Ukraine’s natural gas supply strategy. Dependence on Gazprom has become a thing of the past. Kyiv demonstrates political resolve to pursue supply diversification
More Competition, Less Expensive Russian Gas in Ukraine’s Market (Part Two)
For Part One Click Here On April 2, Russian Gazprom and Naftohaz Ukrainy signed an agreement on natural gas sales-and-purchases to cover the next three months. Russian President Vladimir Putin
More Competition, Less Expensive Russian Gas in Ukraine’s Market (Part One)
On April 1, on President Vladimir Putin’s instructions (Kremlin.ru, March 31; Interfax, April 1), Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev prolonged the validity of the existing agreement on Russian natural gas supplies
Russia Orchestrates Gagauz Election in Moldova, Ponders the Next Steps
On March 30, Irina Vlah was officially declared the winner of the election for the post of Bashkhan (head of the executive authority) in Moldova’s Gagauz Autonomous Territorial Unit (Gagauz
Ukraine in a Leaderless Europe: A Net Assessment (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Ukraine’s EuroMaidan movement triggered two conflicting processes: Ukraine’s resolute, unambiguous course toward Europe (reinforced by subsequent
Ukraine in a Leaderless Europe: A Net Assessment (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Most of the “old” Europe—pre-1999 members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union—does not acknowledge the wider implications of
Ukraine in a Leaderless Europe: A Net Assessment (Part One)
Russia’s war against Ukraine has exposed the deepening cracks in Europe’s understanding of itself as the West’s core, and in its positioning vis-à-vis an openly adverse Russia. Fragmentation processes were
Moldova’s New Government: Daunting Challenges Ahead
Moldova has a new government, the Alliance for a European Moldova (AEM), since February 28, after elections and an agitated interregnum. It is a minority coalition and, moreover, an internally
Moldova’s Party System Blocks Reforms, Defeats the Reformers
Moldova’s new government, the Alliance for a European Moldova (AEM), is a reformatted version of the Alliance for European Integration (AEI) that came to power in Moldova in 2009. Its
Moldova: European Choice With Communist Support?
Following yet another protracted political crisis, the Moldovan parliament has voted to approve a minority government, the Alliance for a European Moldova (AEM), on February 18, thanks to the Communist
The Normandy Format and Ukraine: Doing More Harm Than Good
The foreign affairs ministers of Russia, Germany, France, and Ukraine—the “Normandy Four” countries—met on February 24, in Paris, to review the situation in Ukraine’s east. Russian and proxy forces had
Ukraine Caught in the Straitjacket of Negotiating Formats
The political and military terms of the Minsk Two agreement (February 12) and capture of Debaltseve by Russia’s proxies breaching the ceasefire (February 18) show the extent of Ukraine’s entrapment
Russia Writes, US Approves UN Security Council Resolution on Ukraine
On February 18–19, Ukraine decided to request the United Nations Security Council to authorize a peacekeeping contingent or police mission that would discourage further advances of Russian and proxy forces
Minsk Two Armistice Rewards Russia’s Aggression, Mortgages Ukraine’s Future (Part Three)
*To read Part One please click here *To read Part Two please click here Unlike the Minsk One ceasefire agreements of September 2014, the Minsk Two agreement of February 12, 2015,
Minsk Two Armistice Rewards Russia’s Aggression, Mortgages Ukraine’s Future (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The capture of Debaltseve in Ukraine on Wednesday (Interfax, February 18) by Russian and proxy troops, following prolonged bombardment by their heavy missile
Minsk Two Armistice Rewards Russia’s Aggression, Mortgages Ukraine’s Future (Part One)
Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande have jointly prevailed on Ukraine to sign another armistice with Russia’s proxy forces operating in Ukraine’s east
Putin-Merkel-Hollande Meeting Yields Worse Armistice Terms for Ukraine
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow during the night of February 6–7. Merkel and Hollande had conferred with
Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande Attempt to Mediate Between Russia and Ukraine
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande conferred during the night of February 5–6 with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Kyiv. The three leaders and their advisory teams
Russia’s War in Ukraine Sinks the Minsk Negotiations (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The breakdown of the Minsk negotiations process (see Part One in EDM, February 4) had become obvious even before its final collapse on
Russia’s War in Ukraine Sinks the Minsk Negotiations (Part One)
Russia’s and its proxies’ military advantage (see EDM, January 22, February 3) is increasingly shaping the Minsk process of negotiations to Ukraine’s detriment. That process maintains the fiction that Russia
Russia Grinds Down Ukrainian Troops While Western Support Is Elusive
Russian and proxy forces are attacking Ukrainian positions at multiple points along the frontline since mid-January 2015, bringing to bear superior armored forces, unmatched heavy firepower and electronic warfare support.
Russian Political Warfare to Disrupt Ukraine’s Military Mobilization
A new phase of Russia’s war is ongoing since mid-January in Ukraine’s east. This phase has broken the informal “silence regime” that had taken effect since December 9, which had
Now You See It, Now You Don’t: Putin Cheating on the Armistice Line in Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing a cheating game with the West and Ukraine, not only hollowing out the Minsk armistice agreements (see EDM, January 22, 23, 27), but even
Lavrov Unilaterally Reinterprets the Armistice Agreement With Ukraine
German Chancellor Angela Merkel had hoped to see the Minsk armistice process rehabilitated at the “Normandy Group’s” January 21 meeting in Berlin (see EDM, January 22, 23). Prefacing that meeting
Russia Seeks Political Influence on Ukraine Via the ‘Normandy’ Group
Foreign affairs ministers Frank-Walter Steinmeier of Germany, Sergei Lavrov of Russia, Pavlo Klimkin of Ukraine, and Laurent Fabius of France—representing the so-called “Normandy” group of countries—met in Berlin on January
Russia Pressures Ukraine to Change Minsk Armistice Terms
Russian regular and proxy forces have attacked Ukrainian positions at selected points along the entire length of the demarcation line in recent days. This operation threatens to shift the demarcation
Armed Formations in the Secessionist ‘Luhansk Republic’ (Part Four)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. *To read Part Three, please click here. Local ataman (historically, a Cossack leader) rule proliferates in
Armed Formations in the Secessionist ‘Luhansk Republic’ (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Outside Luhansk City and its environs, the “Luhansk People’s Republic’s” (LPR) territory is splintered into de
Armed Formations in the Secessionist ‘Luhansk Republic’ (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russia is building secessionist proto-states on parts of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk provinces (collectively known as the Donbas region). This effort is advancing
Armed Formations in the Secessionist ‘Luhansk Republic’ (Part One)
The armistice in Ukraine’s east affords Russia a breathing pause to institutionalize the secessionist Luhansk and Donetsk “people’s republics.” The “Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR)” is even less institutionalized and more
Secessionist Forces in Luhansk ‘Republic’: Order out of Chaos?
On January 1, 2015, a military unit of the “Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR)” ambushed and killed the commander of the LPR’s rapid-reaction battalion, Lieutenant-Colonel Aleksandr Bednov (“Batman”) and six of
Moscow Juggling the Concept of Ukraine’s Territorial Integrity (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. In order to stimulate centrifugal processes in Ukraine, the Kremlin needs the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s
Moscow Juggling the Concept of Ukraine’s Territorial Integrity (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Moscow proposes to resolve the conflict in Donbas (eastern Ukrainian region encompassing the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces) by turning the Russian-controlled Donetsk and
Moscow Juggling the Concept of Ukraine’s Territorial Integrity (Part One)
A tactical shift is noticeable in Russia’s policy toward Ukraine. The Kremlin has adjusted its rhetoric, and Russian diplomacy its terminology. They seem to suggest that Russia is restraining its
Russia Takes Breathing Pause From Military Hostilities in Ukraine
Russia seems about to suspend the military phase of its multi-dimensional assault on Ukraine. The Kremlin’s “Novorossiya” project (see EDM, May 27) is shelved until further notice. Instead, Moscow is
Inside Moldova’s Governing Coalition After the Elections (Part Three)
Renato Usatyi’s “Patria” party, a Russian entry in Moldova’s political arena (see EDM, December 3, 4), propagated three messages in this campaign: 1) against the European Union, and for the
Inside Moldova’s Governing Coalition After the Elections (Part Two)
The Democratic Party of billionaire Vlad Plahotniuc is the second-largest in the tripartite Pro-Europe Coalition (PEC). The November 30 elections saw the Democratic Party advance to 16 percent of the
Inside Moldova’s Governing Coalition After the Elections (Part One)
Moldova’s Pro-Europe Coalition should be able to continue governing after the November 30 parliamentary elections (see EDM, December 2, 3, 4). The coalition’s three parties—each running separately—garnered a combined 46
Russia’s New Moldovan Favorite: Igor Dodon’s Socialist Party
Lacking mainstream political partners in Europe’s East, the Kremlin has recently picked the small, far-left Party of Socialists to advance Russia’s objectives in Moldova. The main objective is to undermine
Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections: European Choice Versus Russian Political Projects (Part Two)
Moldova’s small Party of Socialists, pro-Kremlin and pro-Eurasia, has suddenly become Moldova’s single largest party after the legislative elections on November 30. Surpassing the Communist Party, Igor Dodon’s Socialists are
Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections: European Choice Versus Russian Political Projects (Part One)
The pro-Europe governing coalition has won narrowly, while the Red Left has shown new strength in Moldova’s parliamentary elections on November 30. The overall political outcome, if not entirely inconclusive,
Rebooting the Geneva Negotiations: Ukraine’s Possible Escape From the Minsk Trap
The armistice agreements, signed two months ago, have failed to protect Ukraine from further Russian offensive operations and encroachments on its territory. The Minsk agreements’ failure is a generally acknowledged
Putin Stonewalls, West Wobbles on Ukraine at G20 Summit
G20 heads of state and government held their regular summit on November 15–16, in Brisbane, Australia. Within that large group, Western summiteers devoted much of their time to discussions with
Moscow Seeks to Upgrade the Status of Donetsk-Luhansk in Negotiating Formats (Part Two)
TO READ PART ONE, CLICK HERE. Russian diplomacy has created its own terminology, complete with fine semantic nuances, to disguise the nature of Russia’s conflict undertaking in Ukraine and promote an
Moscow Seeks to Upgrade the Status of Donetsk-Luhansk in Negotiating Formats (Part One)
Russia’s position has always been one of creative ambiguity regarding the recognition of territorial secessions from countries in Europe’s East (Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine). In each case, Russian military forces (already
‘Respect’: Russia’s De Facto Recognition of Secession in Ukraine’s East
The European Union’s new High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chief spokesman, Steffen Seibert, among many other European officials, have characterized the
Secessionist Leaders in Ukraine’s East Step up Political Demands in the Wake of Elections
The armistice agreements, signed on September 5 and 19–20, remain basically unimplemented on the Russian side, politically and militarily. Russia’s proxy forces have “de-escalated” their attacks on Ukrainian positions, but
Social and Political Trends in the Russian-Controlled Donbas
The unrecognized “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk (“DPR,” “LPR”) elected would-be presidents and legislatures on November 2, in territories seized from Ukraine (see accompanying article). The decision to proceed
Donetsk, Luhansk ‘People’s Republics’ Stage Elections in Ukraine’s Donbas
On November 2, the Russian-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (“DPR, LPR”) in Ukraine’s Donbas (eastern region encompassing the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces) staged “presidential” and “legislative” elections for the
Russian Policy Adjusting After Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections
Russia has adopted a policy of parallel recognition of two sets of elections in Ukraine: the country’s parliamentary elections and the “elections” in the Russian-occupied parts of Donbas (eastern Ukrainian
Kremlin’s Policy Boomerangs With Ukraine’s Parliamentary Election Results
Russian President Vladimir Putin exuded confidence about his Ukraine policy during the Valdai Club discussion in Sochi on October 24. Conceding that Ukraine is a European country, Putin repeated his
Germany Reconsiders Its Russia Policy in Light of Russia-Ukraine War
The German government’s response to Russia’s war against Ukraine—and by extension, Berlin’s assessment of Russia—is undergoing some reconsideration. Moscow has shaken Germany’s “trust” once more by flouting the armistice in
Chancellor Merkel Insists on Russian Observance of Armistice in Ukraine
The German government has come round to the view that Russia’s actions against Ukraine potentially threaten the “European peace order.” Policy debates in Germany reflect, belatedly and still tentatively, this
Serial Summits in Milan Fail to Budge Putin on Ukraine
Presidents Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine and Vladimir Putin of Russia met with top European leaders in several overlapping formats on October 16–17, in Milan. The tenth Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM), a
Ukraine, the Euromaidan and the EU—A Net Assessment of Kyiv’s Course Toward Europe Since the Start of 2014
Western powers lost control and, to some extent, lost comprehension of the situation in Ukraine during the Euromaidan mass protest movement and its aftermath. They then trailed behind the events
Maidan’s Ashes, Ukrainian Phoenix—A Net Assessment of the Regime Change in Ukraine Since the Start of 2014
The pro-Europe Maidan revolution in February and Russia’s intervention in Donbas in April triggered two parallel processes of regime change in Ukraine. The world has focused on political transformation in
Russia’s Policy Toward Ukraine: Strategic Design, Operational Flexibility
Russia’s grand policy objective toward Ukraine can be defined, broadly, as doing away with Ukraine’s sovereign statehood. Toward that goal, Russia is resorting to military power (in a progression from
Russian Forces Target Three Key Objects in Ukraine’s East
Beyond the newly imposed partition lines, Russian regular and irregular forces are incessantly attacking Ukrainian positions in the Debaltseve salient, the Donetsk airport, and around Mariupil on the Azov Sea.
Russia Subverting Armistice in Ukraine
Russia is using the ceasefire as an opportunity to cement and expand its military presence, directly as well as through the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR). Following the
Moscow’s Cold War Against Ukraine Undiminished After the Armistice
The ceasefire agreements, signed on September 5 and 19–20, have, in no sense, halted Russia’s multi-dimensional war against Ukraine. This includes a still-“hot” military conflict and a “cold” propaganda war.
Putin Suggests Own Terms for a Dialogue With Ukraine
Addressing an international investment forum in Moscow yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin adopted an unusually restrained tone toward Ukraine. In effect, Putin seems to suggest a framework for political dialogue
Russian Military Presence Enforces Division of Ukraine’s Donbas
The armistice, slowly taking hold in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk provinces (collectively known as the Donbas region), basically consigns parts of those territories to Russia’s military and political control, both
Political Implications of the Russia (‘Donetsk/Luhansk’)–Ukraine Armistice
The shape of any political settlement will depend on whether Russian troops and paramilitary personnel with their weaponry are evacuated from what is legally Ukraine’s territory, or remain deployed there.
Armistice Opens Way to Russian Partition of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk Provinces
On September 20 in Minsk, negotiators from Ukraine, Russia, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)—which together constitute the Tripartite Contact Group—as well as the Russia-installed Donetsk and
Ukrainian Leaders Walk Away From Law on Self-Administration in Occupied Territories
Utter confusion surrounds Ukraine’s just-adopted law on the “special procedure of local self-administration in individual districts in the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces.” Pursuant to the September 5 ceasefire protocol, President
Ukraine Grants More Powers to Localities in Russian-Controlled Territory (Part Two)
Ukraine’s law on the “special procedure of local self-administration in individual districts in the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces” (Ukraiynska Pravda, September 16; see Part One of this article) seeks to
Ukraine Grants More Powers to Localities in Russian-Controlled Territory (Part One)
On September 16, the Ukrainian parliament approved a “Law on the special procedure of local self-administration in individual districts in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk provinces” (Russian version’s terminology: poryadok, samo-upravlenie,
Russia Wields Upper Hand in Ukraine’s Donbas Post-Armistice
Russia’s war against Ukraine is a multi-dimensional conflict undertaking. It has come to a standstill on the battlefield in Ukraine, but continues nonetheless in its military aspect (below the combat
Armistice in Ukraine Leaves Part of Donbas Under Russian Control (Part Two)
On September 5, Ukraine, Russia, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and leaders of the Moscow-backed separatist “governments” signed an armistice agreement in Minsk. The armistice protocol’s
Armistice in Ukraine Leaves Part of Donbas Under Russian Control (Part One)
Ukraine has been “coerced to peace” by Russia after five months of hostilities, as Georgia was in 2008 after five days. Russia’s hybrid war methods, rehearsed already against Georgia and
Russian-Speaking Mariupol Says No to Novorossiya
Mariupol illustrates the failure of Russia’s Novorossiya’s project to attract popular support in southeastern Ukraine. That project might have been expected to meet with success in many large cities, including
Mariupol: A High-Value Target in Russia’s War Against Ukraine
Russia opened its second front against Ukraine in late August on the Azov Sea coast, threatening to capture the port city of Mariupol (Donetsk region’s outlet to the sea), and
Putin’s Ceasefire Plan Sets Traps for Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin has Ukraine cornered on the battlefield and in diplomatic negotiations at this moment (see accompanying article). On September 3, Putin proposed a seven-point ceasefire plan to
Russian Offensive Compels Ukraine to Accept Ceasefire Offer
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” have issued parallel announcements today (September 4) about their mutual willingness to sign a ceasefire agreement tomorrow (September 5),
Luhansk: The Other ‘People’s Republic’ in Eastern Ukraine
The secessionist “Luhansk People’s Republic’s” (LPR) leadership is experiencing even greater turmoil, compared with that of the adjacent “Donetsk People’s Republic” (DPR) in Ukraine’s east. On August 14 the “head
Strelkov/Girkin Demoted, Transnistrian Siloviki Strengthened in ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’
On August 14–15, the “Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) government” and its military command underwent another recasting—the second within one week, while Ukrainian forces tighten the ring around the city of
Russia’s Donetsk Proxies Anticipate Ukrainian Siege
The newly-installed “prime minister of the Donetsk people’s republic (DPR),” Aleksandr Zakharchenko, was apparently asked to convey a reassuring message to Russia’s public in anticipation of a Ukrainian siege of
Moscow’s Reinforced Team in Donetsk Picks Local Figurehead Leader
The titular “prime minister of the Donetsk people’s republic,” Aleksandr Boroday, returned from a week-long Moscow visit to usher in another reorganization of “DPR’s” hierarchy. This time, the reshuffle has
Transnistria-Type Scenario Looming in Ukraine’s Donbas (Part Two)
Building a giant version of Transnistria in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk provinces (Donbas) is Russia’s current policy, but it was not its start-off option. It became a fall-back plan when
Transnistria-Type Scenario Looming in Ukraine’s Donbas (Part One)
Western diplomacy seems about to revert to pressuring Ukraine into a disadvantageous armistice and negotiations with Russia’s protégés in the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics.” This could become the basis
Putin Re-Interprets Russia’s Participation in the First World War
On August 1, at Moscow’s Poklonnaya Hill military memorial, President Vladimir Putin inaugurated a monument to Russian soldiers who fought in the First World War. On the hundredth anniversary of
Donetsk ‘Republic’ Leaders’ Morale Plummeting
Intercepts of Moscow-Donetsk telephone conversations, made public by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), reveal pessimism and demoralization on the part of at least some of the secessionist “republic’s” leadership. On July
Tremors in the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’s’ Military and Political Hierarchy (Part Two)
Read Part One here. On the ground in Ukraine’s east, the most significant Russia-backed separatist field commanders continue operating autonomously from Igor Girkin/Strelkov—the self-proclaimed military leader of the pro-Russia
Tremors in the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’s’ Military and Political Hierarchy (Part One)
On July 28, Russian state television presented Vladimir Antyufeyev as “acting chairman of the council of ministers of the Donetsk People’s Republic [DPR prime minister],” and featured an interview with
Ukraine Defines Armed Secessionists as Terrorists, Russia as Terrorism Sponsor
Ukraine is asking Western governments and international organizations to designate the Moscow-backed Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (“DPR” and “LPR,” in Ukraine’s east) as terrorist organizations. Their political leaderships and
Defining the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: An Uphill Effort in Berlin
German diplomacy went into high gear after the shooting down of an international airliner by Russia’s proxy forces in Ukraine’s east on July 17. The terrorist act with the use
Article by Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor Cited in Op-Ed by Anne Applebaum
A July 18 op-ed on the downed Malaysian Airlines Flight MH 17, written by Anne Applebaum in the Washington Post, cited a recent EDM article by Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir
The Contact Group in Ukraine Weighted Toward Russia
The Trilateral Contact Group is the latest of several international forums that have emerged in response to Russia’s war against Ukraine (see accompanying article). Established in June, the Contact Group
Ukraine Needs a Supportive International Format for Negotiations With Russia
Yesterday’s terrorist attack that downed the Malaysian Airlines plane, killing approximately 300 passengers, occurred in an area held by pro-Russia fighters on the Ukrainian side of the Russia-Ukraine border. This
Russian Secessionists Ready for ‘State-Building’ In Ukraine’s Donetsk City
Declared by an unlawful “referendum” on May 11, the Moscow-backed “Donetsk People’s Republic” (DPR; along with the “Luhansk People’s Republic”—LPR) has existed thus far as scattered dots on the map
Pro-Russia Forces in Ukraine Digging in the City of Donetsk
Defeated in Slovyansk and three other districts in Donetsk province on July 5–6 (see EDM, July 10), Russia’s proxy forces have regrouped in the city of Donetsk. Anticipating a Ukrainian
Ukraine Determined to Avoid the “Frozen-Conflict” Paradigm
Ukraine has stepped back from the brink of the quadripartite declaration signed on July 2 in Berlin (see EDM, July 3). On July 5 and 6, Ukrainian forces ousted pro-Russia
Ukraine Struggles to Stem Cross-Border Supplies to Russia’s Proxy Forces
Russia reinforces and resupplies the secessionist troops in Ukraine’s east across certain sections of the border. The cross-border flow continued unabated during Ukraine’s two unilateral ceasefires (June 20–30), enabling pro-Russia
Russia, Germany Eye to Eye on Ukraine’s Border Security
In late June and early July, German Chancellor Angela Merkel as well as Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia, Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine and Francois Hollande of France held a series
Ukraine Makes Far-Reaching Concessions to Russia at Berlin Meeting
The foreign affairs ministers of Russia, Germany, France, and Ukraine conferred on July 2 in Berlin, in a format designed to subject the Ukrainian side to pressure from the other
Putin Inflates “Russian World” Identity, Claims Protection Rights
On July 1 in the Kremlin, President Vladimir Putin addressed the annual conference of Russia’s ambassadors accredited to foreign countries and international organizations, top foreign affairs ministry officials, leaders of
Ukraine Discontinues A Self-Defeating Unilateral Ceasefire
Ukraine has extricated itself from the trap of a unilateral ceasefire exploited by the Russian side. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko had declared a seven-day ceasefire on June 20, and prolonged
Russia Pressures Ukraine to Prolong the Ceasefire
Ukraine’s unilateral ceasefire, announced by President Petro Poroshenko on June 20, expires today (June 27). Russia and its proxy forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (Donbas) have actively undermined
Russia Rejects Ukrainian President’s Peace Proposals
On June 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin again denied the existence of a Ukrainian nation in its own right, distinct from Russia; and he went on to dismiss Ukrainian President
Poroshenko Outlines Peace Plan for Donetsk and Luhansk
On June 20, President Petro Poroshenko unveiled a “peace plan” in 15 points for resolving the armed conflict in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, parts of which have been seized
Ukraine Constrained to Declare Unilateral Ceasefire in Donbas
On June 20, President Petro Poroshenko ordered a seven-day unilateral ceasefire by Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, parts of which have been seized by Russia’s proxy forces.
Ukraine Responds to Russia’s Suspension of Gas Supplies
Following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s warnings, Gazprom has fully halted natural gas supplies to Ukraine since June 16, citing debts calculated by Moscow for past deliveries of gas to Ukraine
Russia Suspends Natural Gas Supplies to Ukraine
On June 16, Russia suspended natural gas supplies to Ukraine over non-payment of debts for supplies already delivered. Russia would resume the supplies on condition that Ukraine pays in advance
Ukraine’s Presidential Election Reveals Unexpected Trends
Ukraine’s president-elect, billionaire Petro Poroshenko, has received a broad popular mandate to promote closer relations between Ukraine and the European Union. On May 25, Poroshenko won 55 percent of the
Moldova: Russia’s Next Target if the West Falters in Ukraine (Part Two)
Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in March was an overture to the broader “Novorossiya” project, announced by President Vladimir Putin on April 17. This covers eight Ukrainian provinces that
Moldova: Russia’s Next Target if the West Falters in Ukraine (Part One)
Viewed from Moldova, the Kremlin’s assault on Ukraine (like the earlier one on Georgia) aims to prevent the country permanently from joining Europe and the West writ large. To defeat
Secessionists on Collision Course With Akhmetov in Donbas
Ukraine’s wealthiest industrialist, Donetsk-based Renat Akhmetov, on May 20, urged the workers of Donbas to protest against “those who call themselves some kind of people’s republic of Donetsk [secessionist leaders].”
Ukrainian Businessmen Support Paramilitary Units in State Service
Ukrainian forces are struggling to contain Russia’s proxy insurgency in Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk provinces). The Ukrainian “anti-terrorist operation,” under way since April 13, remains inconclusive thus far. This operation
New York Times Quotes Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor
Vladimir Socor was quoted in an article on the fuel reserves that are Russia after the annexation of Crimea.
Political Factions and the Presidential Election in Ukraine’s East
The Party of Regions and affiliated “oligarchs” remain the most influential political force in Ukraine’s east for the time being (see accompanying article). However, the party is pressured on multiple
The Question of Political Power in Ukraine’s East (Part Two)
Political forces supportive of Ukraine’s unity hold the upper hand in six provinces (oblasts) that Moscow seeks to carve out as “South-Eastern Ukraine” or split off as “Novorossiya.” Following the
The Question of Political Power in Ukraine’s East (Part One)
President Vladimir Putin and Russian diplomacy have recently invented the concept of “South-Eastern Ukraine” as a would-be political entity. Moscow promotes this idea as part of its project to dismantle
The Referendums in Ukraine’s Donbas: Aftermath and Consequences
On May 11, self-declared “people’s councils” purported to hold “referendums” in approximately 20 or 25 towns or parts thereof, held by armed rebels in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk provinces (Donbas)
Kremlin Gives Go-Ahead to Referendums in Eastern Ukraine
For all their lack of capacity (let alone legitimacy) to organize any kind of voting, pro-Russia forces in Ukraine’s Donbas are proceeding with secession referendums in the Donetsk and Luhansk
Putin and OSCE’s Chairman Coordinate Road Map for Ukraine
As anticipated (see EDM, May 1), pro-Russia groups have failed to organize the secession referendums, planned for May 11 in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (Donbas). Those marginal groups lack
Geneva Agreement and the OSCE: Two Non-Solutions to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
The April 17 Geneva Statement “on the situation in Ukraine” (by Russia, the United States, the European Union and Ukraine) has proven to be stillborn. This was preordained, since the
Hostages for Trading: An Innovation of Putin’s Kremlin in Ukraine
On May 3, Russia’s proxy forces in Ukraine’s city of Slovyansk released from captivity the military observers of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The German-led group
Russia Fomenting Chaos in Ukraine’s Donbass Despite Geneva Statement
The Geneva Joint Diplomatic Statement of April 17, 2014 (see EDM, April 30) has gone the way of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, the 1997 Russia-Ukraine inter-state treaty, the 1997 and
Dead in Geneva: The Compromise With Russia on Ukraine
Russia is inadvertently helping Ukraine, the United States and the European Union to escape the trap of the April 17 Geneva Joint Diplomatic Statement “On the Situation in Ukraine” (https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/04/224957.htm).
VOA-Ukraine Service Covers Jamestown Conference on Ukraine Crisis
Voice of America - Ukraine Service released its coverage of Jamestown's April 21 event on Ukraine, including interviews with several of the event's panelists.
Pro-Russia Paramilitaries Seize Ground in Eastern Ukraine Ahead of International Negotiations
Pro-Russia armed groups fanned out during April 11–14 across Donetsk oblast, capturing the seats of authority in town after town: Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Makiyivka, Mariupol, Horlivka, Khartsyzk, Yenakiyeve, Zhdanivka, and several
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor Interviewed by Veidas
On March 13, Veidas, Lithuania's number one political weekly, interviewed Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor about the security situation of the Baltic States as it relates to the Russian invasion
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor Interviewed by Magyar Narancs
Hungarian opinion weekly Magyar Narancs interviewed Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor about Ukraine's relations with the European Union against the background of Russia's occupation of Crimea.
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor Interviewed by Delfi
On April 11, Lithuania's leading news portal Delfi interviewed Vladimir Socor about Russia's occupation of Crimea.
Russia Builds Leverage Ahead of Ukraine’s Presidential Election
Moscow seems to be preparing the atmosphere for a possible military intervention in Ukraine’s eastern regions. Russia could, if it deemed expedient, intervene there with troops in some form or
Russia, the West, and the Security Vacuum in Europe’s East (Part Two)
The crisis over Crimea has confirmed and further developed a paradigm of Russian re-expansion and Western self-denial in Europe’s East. This paradigm operates as follows (continued from Part One, EDM,
Ukraine Seeks Closer Ties With NATO and Its Member Countries
On April 1–2 in Brussels, the Ukraine-NATO Commission held a ministerial-level meeting to discuss the conflict with pronounced military dimensions between Russia and Ukraine (UNIAN, April 2).Members of the North
Russia, the West, and the Security Vacuum in Europe’s East (Part One)
Russia’s seizure of Crimea from Ukraine, and Western hand-wringing in response, demonstrate the depth of the security vacuum in Europe’s East. Comprising Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, this
US-Moldova Relations ‘Stronger Than Ever’ Politically
Visiting Moldova on March 29, US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland declared that US-Moldova relations “have never been stronger” (Moldpres, March 30). Nuland’s visit was the latest in the
Putin’s Crimea Speech: A Manifesto of Greater-Russia Irredentism
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech on the incorporation of Crimea into Russia (kremlin.ru, March 18; see EDM, March 19) aimed far beyond Crimea in scope and ambition. Explicitly, Putin called
Naval Basing and Maritime Borders in the Black Sea After Russia’s Annexation of Crimea
Russia’s seizure of Crimea from Ukraine, officially effective from March 18 (see EDM, March 19), brings two distinct territorial units into the Russian Federation, namely: the Crimean republic and the
Russia Retakes Crimea: Political Implications
Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine is now an accomplished goal in its own right. But it is also an intermediate goal, part of a broader agenda to threaten Ukraine
Russia Completes the Annexation of Crimea
Addressing Russia’s bicameral parliament on March 18, President Vladimir Putin announced Crimea’s incorporation into the Russian Federation. The founding documents on Crimea’s “admission” into Russia were signed on the same
Russia Can Play With Several Options After Crimea Plebiscite
The Crimean plebiscite on March 16 was pre-determined—indeed, pre-rigged—to endorse Crimea’s accession to Russia, following Russia’s military occupation of this autonomous republic in Ukraine (see EDM, March 4, 14).The two
Crimean Plebiscite: Result Pre-Determined, Implementation Still Uncertain
The Crimean government and parliament are completing preparations for the plebiscite scheduled to be held on March 16, leading to the Autonomous Republic of Crimea’s secession from Ukraine and possible
NATO and Ukraine’s Security Vacuum
Russia has seized Crimea from Ukraine by military force, wholly unprovoked, and without having to fire a shot (see EDM, February 28, March 3–7, 10). Furthermore, Russia has “legislated” its
Russia Trashes US-Russian-British Memorandum on Ukraine
From day one of Russia’s assault on Ukraine (ongoing since February 27), Ukrainian government leaders, politicians and diplomats have continually invoked the 1994 Budapest Memorandum signed by Ukraine, the United
Ukrainian Big Business Joins Effort for Country’s Political Stabilization
On March 2, Ukrainian interim president Oleksandr Turchynov appointed new heads of state administrations (governors) in several oblasts in eastern and southern Ukraine (Ukraiynska Pravda, March 2, 3). The main
Ukrainian Government and ‘Oligarchs’ Share Interest in Country’s Stabilization
In Ukraine’s case, democratic theory was at no time a valid premise for assessing the stability, internal legitimacy, or indeed the logic of the country’s political order. That order functioned
Crimea: From Russian Putsch to Military Invasion and Possible Occupation
President Vladimir Putin announced today (March 4) that Russia’s ground troops, deployed across Crimea since March 1, have “reinforced the protection of our installations” (“obiekty”) on that territory of Ukraine.
Russian Putsch in Crimea Under Pseudo-Legal Cover
In the pre-dawn hours on February 27 in Simferopol, some 50 heavily armed Russian men in camouflage uniforms without identification marks seized the parliament and government buildings of the Crimean
Euro-Maidan Spreads to Ukraine’s South-East
On February 25, Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada (national parliament) chairman and acting head of state, Oleksandr Turchynov, appointed Oleh Makhnitsky as acting general prosecutor, with instructions to “rebuff separatist tendencies” in
Ukraine Confronts Security Challenges Amid Regime Transition
Ukraine has embarked on regime transition. The interim leadership now confronts an entirely new mix of challenges to national and civil security, of greater complexity and intensity than anything in
Moscow Encourages Centrifugal Forces in South-Eastern Ukraine
Turning Ukraine into a federation of regional units is an idea that Moscow airs almost predictably, when facing a net loss of Russian influence over Ukraine. “Federalizing” Ukraine traditionally connotes,
Moldova’s European Choice Vulnerable to Russian Economic Leverage
Russia’s economic leverage on Moldova has tended to diminish in recent years, but it remains strong on several key dimensions, and can be used with short-term devastating consequences, if the
Russia’s Sympathizers in Moldova Oppose the European Choice
The European Union and Moldova have set a fairly tight calendar for wrapping up their Association Agreement: signing it by August and ratifying it in the Moldovan parliament until November,
Ethnic Factors Affecting Moldova’s Debate on Association With the European Union
The European Union has accelerated the signing and ratification of the EU-Moldova association agreements, which were initialed at the Vilnius summit in November (see EDM, February 19). The EU and
Can Russia Derail Moldova From the European Course?
Russia’s successes in derailing the European Union’s association agreements with Armenia and with Ukraine have raised concerns about a possible repeat success for Russia in Moldova. Toward that goal, the
Germany in New Role as Transit Country for Russian Gas
On February 5, Gazprom refloated the option of expanding the Nord Stream pipeline by adding a third and possibly a fourth line to the existing two. A third and a
Gazprom Accumulates Storage Capacities in Germany
Russian natural gas exports to Germany grew to 40.2 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2013, a hefty increase over the preceding year’s 33.2 bcm, according to Gazprom’s sales report for
Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor’s Analysis Cited by The Economist Blog
On February 10, the Economist blog on Eastern Europe, "Eastern Approaches," quoted Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor's EDM article on the recent Russian-Hungarian nuclear energy deal. Mr. Socor's original article
Russian Energy Projects and Hungarian Politics
Hungary’s Fidesz-led government under Viktor Orban, conservative and Europe-oriented in a traditionalist sense, and strongly anti-communist ever since Fidesz’s formative years, has turned toward Russia for solutions to some of
Rosatom Lands Nuclear Energy Project in Hungary by Western Default
On February 6, Hungary’s parliament approved the Russian-Hungarian agreement for cooperation on nuclear energy. Under the agreement, Rosatom shall build two nuclear power blocs in Hungary, financed by Russian state
The Gazelle Pipeline: Czech Segment on New Russian Gas Route to Western Europe
Gazelle, the new gas transit pipeline in the Czech Republic, completed in 2013, is conceived to function as a prolongation of the Gazprom-controlled Nord Stream and OPAL pipelines into continental
Nord Stream–OPAL–Gazelle: Another Ukraine-Bypass Route for Gazprom
According to Russia’s state-owned PRIME business news agency, European Union Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger has told journalists that the European Commission is set to reach an agreement with the Russian
Moscow and European Commission Negotiate Over OPAL Gas Pipeline
The European Union–Russia biannual summit, postponed from December 2013 and held on January 28, 2014, and reduced to three hours instead of the customary one and a half or two
Gazprom Intent on Rolling Back EU’s Energy Market Legislation
With the backing of the Kremlin, and some help from interested European parties, Gazprom is intent on rolling back the European Union’s Third Energy Legislation Package on EU territory. The
Vladimir Socor’s Remarks at Frankfurt Gas Forum Cited by Natural Gas Europ
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor's remarks on TANAP and Azerbaijan's energy policy, which he delivered at the December 2013 Frankfurt Gas Forum were reported on by Natural Gas Europe.
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor Speak at SOCAR’s Brussels Conference
Jamestown Foundation Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor delivered remarks at SOCOR's Brussels conference regarding Azerbaijan's growing role as a bridge between Caspian energy sources and European consumers.
Beyond Shah Deniz: Azerbaijan’s Next-Generation Gas
Azerbaijan is prepared to supply European Union countries with natural gas for decades to come and in growing volumes. The giant Shah Deniz field, where the producers’ consortium has just
Azerbaijan Considers Long-Term Strategy on Natural Gas Exports
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev highlighted the start-up of the largest European energy infrastructure project, involving: Shah Deniz Phase Two of field development
Gazprom Advances in Germany
Russian Gazprom is taking over most of the core business of its German partner, Wintershall, in the natural gas trade and storage business. The two companies had conducted that business
Gazprom Takes Over Wintershall’s Core German Business
On January 13, Gazprom Vice-President and Gazprom Export CEO Aleksandr Medvedev dropped by an annual meeting of Wintershall’s staff, at company headquarters in Kassel. It was, in this case, the
SCP, TANAP, TAP: Segments of the Southern Gas Corridor to Europe
Full-scale investment approved at Shah Deniz, and supply contracts secured in Europe, make it possible for pipeline construction to proceed along the 3,500-kilometer Southern Gas Corridor, from Azerbaijan to European
Shah Deniz Investment Decision Validates Commercial Agreements, Triggers Construction Contracts
The Shah Deniz gas producers’ consortium has approved the final investment decision (FID) on December 17, 2013, launching Phase Two of production at the project in Azerbaijan (see accompanying article).
Shah Deniz Gas Consortium in Azerbaijan Approves Final Investment Decision
On December 17, 2013, in Baku, the Shah Deniz natural gas producers’ consortium approved the Final Investment Decision (FID) to start Phase Two of production. The investment commitment is valued
Language Politics, Party Politics, and Constitutional Court Politics in Moldova
Denominating the Republic of Moldova’s indigenous ethnicity and the state language as Moldovan or Romanian is a salient, continuous, and often emotional controversy in Moldova. This issue is far more
Constitutional Court Seeks to Rename Moldova’s State Language Romanian
On December 5 and 24, 2013, Moldova’s Constitutional Court issued a ruling and the substantiating arguments (Moldpres, Unimedia, December 5, 24). These documents are widely interpreted to require the renaming
Georgian Politics and Political Prosecutions: The Current State of Play (Part Two)
On December 18, 2013, the prosecution filed charges in a new case against Tbilisi mayor Gigi Ugulava, the last major holdout official from the opposition United National Movement (UNM). The
Georgian Politics and Political Prosecutions: The Current State of Play (Part One)
Georgia’s Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili, in office since November 2013, has heralded a resurgence in politically-motivated prosecutions against officials of the previous government and current opposition party, the United National
Georgia’s Discredited Chief Prosecutor Resigns—But Anti-UNM Prosecution Cases Multiply
Georgia’s Prosecutor-in-Chief Otar Partskhaladze had to resign on December 30, 2013, following disclosures that, in 2001–2002, he had served a sentence of one year and three months in a prison
Hungarian MOL Active Upstream in the North Sea and Kazakhstan
Hungarian MOL and Wintershall of Germany have signed an agreement whereby MOL acquires ownership stakes in 14 offshore oil fields originally licensed to Wintershall in the North Sea. Signed in
Armenia’s Economic Dependence on Russia Insurmountable by the European Union
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Armenia on December 2 to seal his triumph in turning Armenia away from the European Union (see accompanying article). Putin and Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
Putin’s Visit Reinforces Military, Political Ties with Armenia
Back-to-back with the European Union’s Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius (see EDM, December 3–5), Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a state visit to Armenia on December 2. Putin’s timing was
European Union’s Eastern Partnership Unwanted by Armenia, Inadequate to Azerbaijan
The European Union’s Vilnius summit (November 28–29) helped to demonstrate that the Eastern Partnership program must pursue a more differentiated approach toward the individual partner countries.The EU had, broadly speaking,
Moldovan Government Moves Closer to the European Union at the Vilnius Summit
Among the European Union’s six Eastern Partnership countries (Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan), Moldova is moving closer to the EU at the fastest pace. The government, led successively
Ukraine and the European Union at the Vilnius Summit and in Its Aftermath (Part Two)
Russia has temporarily derailed the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement (AA) and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) deal at the EU’s Vilnius summit, November 28–29. Moscow achieved this success
Ukraine and the European Union at the Vilnius Summit and in Its Aftermath (Part One)
Ukraine failed to sign the Association Agreement (AA) and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) agreement with the European Union at the Vilnius summit (November 28–29) under the EU’s
Georgia Between Russia and the European Union: Toward the Vilnius Summit and Beyond (Part Two)
To balance its contradictory goals—advancing Georgia’s Western orientation while conciliating Russia—Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili’s government initiated a “reset” of Georgia-Russia relations from the moment it took office in November 2012
Georgia Between Russia and the European Union: Toward the Vilnius Summit and Beyond (Part One)
Georgia’s Western orientation is the legacy of former president Mikheil Saakashvili’s government (2003–2012), which ended the predecessor governments’ equivocations. A tradition-bound society with almost no historical experience of Europe, very
Georgian Government Escalates Repression Threats Against Opposition UNM Party
Georgia’s new prime minister, Irakli Garibashvili, took office on November 20, casting anathema on the opposition United National Movement (UNM) party, and warning it of more criminal investigations to come.
Moldova, the European Union and the Vilnius Summit (Part Two)
The European Union–Moldova association and free trade agreements, to be initialed in Vilnius and signed next year, should enable Moldova’s existing government to win the 2014 elections against the Communist
Moldova, the European Union and the Vilnius Summit (Part One)
The European Union and Moldova are fully set to initial an Association Agreement (AA) and a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) at the EU’s Eastern Partnership Summit on
Croatian Government Can Still De-Escalate Tensions with Hungarian MOL
The Croatian authorities’ pressures on Hungarian MOL (see EDM, November 14) are not a novel development. In 2011, the government (led by the Croatian Democratic Union at that time) imposed
Croatian Government Seeks to Change Agreement with Hungarian MOL Under Duress
The Croatian government and the Hungarian MOL oil and gas group have entered into negotiations over the future of INA, the main oil and gas company in Croatia and the
NATO’s Steadfast Jazz 2013 Exercise: One Step Toward Fully Credible Common Defense in the Baltic Region
Steadfast Jazz 2013, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) exercise just held in the three Baltic States and Poland (see accompanying article), marks the start of rebalancing the Alliance’s missions:
NATO Holds Article Five Exercise in the Baltic Region
On November 2–November 9, the NATO Response Force (NRF) conducted the Steadfast Jazz 2013 troop exercise in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, combined with the Baltic Host logistical exercise in
Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor Delivers Remarks on Social Media at Baku Forum Conference
Jamestown Foundation Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor provided remarks on "The New Social Media in Transitional Societies: Politics, Ethics, Responsibility" at the Baku International Humanitarian Forum in Baku, Azerbaijan, on October
Ukraine Launching Major Gas Extraction Projects with Western Companies
The Ukrainian government is launching major natural gas extraction projects in the country, as joint ventures with leading Western companies (Interfax-Ukraine, Ukrinform, November 5). At present, Ukraine depends on Russian
Hot Issue: Libya in Anarchy Two Years After Western Intervention
Executive SummaryTwo years ago, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s assassination by Western-backed rebels (October 20, 2011) marked the end of all-out civil war and the collapse of the state in
Libya in Anarchy Two Years After Western Intervention
Two years ago, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s assassination by Western-backed rebels (October 20, 2011) marked the end of all-out civil war and the collapse of the state in Libya. The United
Russia Conducts Trade Warfare on Multiple Fronts
Russia’s trade restrictions against Lithuania (ban on Lithuanian dairy products since October 7, threats to ban meat and fish products, harassment of Lithuanian road transport at the Russian border—see EDM,
Russia’s Trade Warfare Against Lithuania Is a Challenge to the European Union
Effective from October 7, Russia has banned the imports of Lithuanian dairy products. The Consumer Protection and Sanitary Inspectorate (Rospotrebnadzor) chief, Gennady Onishchenko, announced the ban, and now threatens to
Moldova Hands Over Chisinau International Airport to Russian Business in Exclusive, Non-Transparent Deal (Part Two)
On October 4, the Moldovan government published the text of the agreement handing Chisinau International Airport to a Russian consortium, led by Khabarovsk-based Komaks, in an exclusive concession (Unimedia, October
Moldova Hands Over Chisinau International Airport to Russian Business in Exclusive, Non-Transparent Deal (Part One)
Moldova’s governing Pro-Europe Coalition is handing Chisinau International Airport over to the Komaks company from Khabarovsk, eastern Siberia, in association with a company belonging to Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska. The
Russia and the Moldovan Communists’ Red October (Part Two)
Last month, the Kremlin snapped its fingers and Armenia turned its back on Europe literally overnight, choosing to join the Russia-led Customs Union instead of concluding association and free-trade agreements
Russia and the Moldovan Communists’ Red October (Part One)
During the summer months, Moldova’s still-strong Communist Party threatened to stage what it terms a “velvet revolution” by October, so as to derail the conclusion of Moldova’s association agreements with
Russia Accelerates ‘Borderization’ in Georgia on War’s 20th Anniversary
On September 30, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a congratulatory message to Abkhazia’s authorities on the 20th anniversary of “the republic’s independence.” The anniversary marks the Abkhazian proclamation of independence
Azerbaijan’s Elections and the US-Azerbaijan Strategic Partnership
The government of Azerbaijan wants the United States to exert greater influence in the South Caucasus, but is actually seeing less of it under the administration of President Barack Obama;
Azerbaijan Preoccupied by Regional Trends Ahead of Its Presidential Election
Negotiating a phased withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijan’s territory is the top national security priority for Baku. Recent trends in the region pose additional challenges to Azerbaijan in the
European Companies Contracting to Buy Azerbaijani Gas
On September 19, in Baku, nine European energy companies signed contracts to purchase Azerbaijani natural gas from the Shah Deniz field, Phase Two of production.All nine contracts cover a period
Ivanishvili’s Resignation Intent: A Tacit Admission of Failure
Georgian Dream leader and Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili stipulated three principal goals in his quest for power (October 2011–October 2012) and as head of government (since November 2012). First, he
Georgia’s Political System Precarious as Ivanishvili Prepares to Resign
Georgia’s billionaire Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili insists he will resign from government and quit politics altogether after the October 27, 2013 presidential election. Ivanishvili first entered politics in October 2011,
Kazakhstan’s Kashagan Oil Project Set to Start Commercial Production
The international consortium developing Kazakhstan’s super-giant offshore oilfield Kashagan is now on course to start commercial production by October 1, the final deadline set by Kazakhstan’s government. Meeting that deadline
The End of ‘Complementarity’ in Armenia’s Foreign Policy
“Complementarity,” the term purportedly denoting Armenia’s policy of balance between Russia and the West, has reached the end of the road, and that end is Russia. Long assumed to be
Russia’s Customs Union Project Finds Acceptance in Armenia
Armenia’s move into Russia’s economic bloc, coupled with its military reliance on Russia, will conclusively reduce Armenia to the status of Russia’s satellite. Armenia’s snub to the European Union is
Armenia Trades European Union Association for Russian Protection
On September 3, Presidents Vladimir Putin and Serzh Sargsyan (speaking in that order from Putin’s Novo-Ogaryovo residence) announced their decision that Armenia would join the Russia-led blocs—the Customs Union and
Implications of Armenia’s Russian and Eurasian Choice
President Serzh Sargsyan has decided that Armenia should join the Russia-led blocs, the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union, as part of a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Sargsyan
Armenia Chooses Russia and Eurasia over the European Union
On September 3, in Moscow, Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia jointly sank Armenia’s association, trade and visa liberalization agreements with the European Union, which were
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor Interviewed by RFE/RL
The Moldovan service of RFE/RL interviewed Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor on September 3 regarding the recent visit to Chisinau by Dmitry Rogozin.
Rogozin Threatens Moldova with Sanctions over Association Agreement with the European Union
Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin visited Moldova on September 2–3, in his parallel capacities as President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy “on Transnistria” (“po Pridnestroviyu”) and as Russian co-chairman of
Azerbaijan Earns Deferential Treatment from Moscow
Among the six countries in the European Union’s Eastern Partnership program, Azerbaijan under its President Ilham Aliyev seems uniquely impervious to Russian forms of leverage and, consequently, unique in receiving
Azerbaijan, Russia Turning New Page on Cooperation in Energy Sector
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s working visit to Azerbaijan on August 13 (see EDM, April 14) resulted in several agreements of unprecedented scope in the oil and gas sector. Presidents Ilham
Putin Courting Azerbaijan While Deep-Freezing the Karabakh Conflict
Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a one-day working visit to Azerbaijan on August 13, his first visit to that country since 2006. Two warships of Russia’s Caspian Flotilla anchored in
Slovakia: Potential Gateway for Reverse Gas Flows from Europe to Ukraine (Part Two)
The European Commission encourages Slovakia to emulate Hungary and Poland transiting natural gas supplies from Western Europe to Ukraine. Such deliveries involve re-exporting gas volumes and reverse-using transit systems. Following
Slovakia: Potential Gateway for Reverse Gas Flows from Europe to Ukraine (Part One)
To reduce its dependence on Gazprom’s supply monopoly, Ukraine has recently initiated the procurement of natural gas from European gas-trading companies. RWE (Rheinisch-Westfaelisches Elektrizitaetswerk, Germany’s second-largest energy conglomerate) has become
Silent Partner: Belarus in NATO’s Northern Distribution Network
Regardless of political atmospherics, Belarus is a proactive participant in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) Northern Distribution Network (NDN) for logistical support to NATO forces in Afghanistan. The NDN
Moldova, Ukraine Bar Russian Military Flights and Arms Transit to Tiraspol
On July 29, the Russian defense ministry’s Zvezda Television announced that new helicopters would “soon” be delivered to Russian “peacekeeping” troops in Moldova’s Transnistria territory. It claimed that the matter
Georgian Dream Government Not Coping with Economy’s Slump
Data just released by Georgia’s state agency for statistics (GeoStat) show a pronounced economic downturn. The robust growth that Georgia was experiencing until the October 2012 elections has petered out
Vladimir Socor Interviewed on RFE/RL Moldovan Service
On July 30, Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor was interviewed by RFE/RL's Moldovan service regarding Russian-Moldovan relations.
Ivanishvili Announces He May Soon Resign as Georgia’s Prime Minister
Interviewed by the Lithuanian daily Lietuvos Rytas (July 20) and the Brussels-based EUobserver (July 29), Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili has announced that he intends to resign from the government
Gas Supply Diversification Prospects Uncertain in Central and Southeastern Europe
The demise of the Nabucco-West gas pipeline project leaves Romania and Hungary dependent on Russian gas imports, and scrambling for diversification solutions that variously look sub-optimal or doubtful. Conversely, the
TAP Project Consortium Restructured in Line with Market Priorities
The Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) project consortium is being thoroughly reconfigured, reflecting the producers’ and shippers’ options for marketing Azerbaijani natural gas in Europe.On July 30, Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR),
Moldovan Sovereignty and Gagauz Autonomy: A Balance Vulnerable to Moscow’s Mischief
From 1990 until 1994, Moldova faced two secessionist, Russia-oriented “republics” on its territory: Transnistria and Gagauzia. The autonomy settlement, negotiated by Chisinau with the Gagauz in 1994, retrieved Moldova’s southern
Improved Political Representation Can Strengthen Gagauz Allegiance to Moldovan State
Moldova faces multiple Russian proxy operations to destabilize the country ahead of the European Union’s November 2013 Eastern Partnership Summit. Among such proxies, Gagauz radicals of 1990 vintage seek a
Tinkering with Gagauz Autonomy Can Destabilize Moldova
On July 24, the chief executive official (bashkan) of Moldova’s Gagauz autonomous territory, Mihail Formuzal, called for upgrading the autonomy’s status to that of a republic, on an equal footing
Ivanishvili, Georgian Dream Approval Ratings Slipping Away
Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili achieved an impregnable political standing and carried Georgian Dream on his coattails in the October 2012 parliamentary elections. He led many voters to believe that his
Presidential Election Campaign Under Way in Georgia
Georgia’s presidential election campaign is moving toward a seemingly predetermined outcome. Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili’s personal choice, Giorgi Margvelashvili, looks set to win the October 27 vote and replace the
Gazprom Resists Application of EU Law on Opal Pipeline in Germany
Russia’s Ministry of Energy and Gazprom want the European Commission to exempt the biggest pipelines in Germany, OPAL and NEL, from the European Union’s energy market legislation. OPAL and NEL
Romanian Gas Pipeline Might Free Moldova from Gazprom’s Monopoly
Visiting the Republic of Moldova on July 17, Romanian President Traian Basescu announced the imminent start of the construction of a natural gas pipeline to connect Romania with Moldova. The
TAP Gas Consortium Looks at Markets from Bulgaria to Britain
Gas marketing options of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) project consortium may look either flexible or vague at this point. Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) seems the only reassuring exception in
SOCAR and Other Shah Deniz Producers Reconfiguring Pipeline Consortiums
The gas producers’ consortium at Shah Deniz in Azerbaijan has selected the Greece-Italy route, known as the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) project, for transportation of that field’s production to European markets.
Ukraine’s Gas Storage System: A Unique Asset in Europe
Addressing Gazprom’s annual general meeting of shareholders, CEO Alexei Miller warned that Gazprom would “never again, under any circumstances” use Ukraine’s gas storage system in the process of delivering Russian
Ukraine Diversifies Gas Suppliers, Slashes Imports from Gazprom
Ukraine has recently initiated procurement of natural gas from European suppliers. These volumes are small but growing, correspondingly eroding Gazprom’s market share in Ukraine.The German Rheinisch-Westfaelisches Elektrizitaetswerk (RWE) is providing
Future of Ukraine’s Gas Transit System Linked with Ukraine-EU Association Agreement
Ukraine stands on the threshold of finalizing the Association Agreement with the European Union, possibly signing it at the Vilnius summit in November. If signed, the agreement would open the
Kazakhstan Enters into Strategic Partnership with Britain
On July 1, in Astana, President Nursultan Nazarbayev and the visiting British Prime Minister David Cameron signed a joint declaration on strategic partnership between Britain and Kazakhstan. A large business
China Enters Kashagan Oil Project, Will Boost Kazakhstan-China Pipeline Capacity
On July 2, Kazakhstan’s government announced that it has decided to sell an 8.4-percent stake in Kashagan, the supergiant oilfield development project, to China’s National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). The CNPC
Old and New Options Considered in the Post-Nabucco Era
Planning the Southern Gas Corridor to Europe, the European Commission in Brussels had defined the Nabucco pipeline project as the corridor’s mainstay. With Nabucco-West’s official demise (see accompanying article and
The Curtain Falls on Nabucco’s Last Act
Nabucco-West, the pipeline project that was to have carried Azerbaijani gas from Turkey to the Central European Gas Hub near Vienna, is exiting from the stage. There will be no
Shah Deniz Gas Producers Select Trans-Adriatic Pipeline Route into Europe over Nabucco
The gas producers’ consortium at Shah Deniz in Azerbaijan has selected the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline project (TAP, Greece-Albania-Italy, led by Norwegian Statoil) to deliver Azerbaijani gas to Europe. This decision eliminates
Azerbaijan Wins Tender for Gas Pipelines in Greece
On June 21, Greece’s State Assets Development Fund announced that Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) has won the tender to acquire control of Greek DESFA’s (Public Gas Transmission System Operator)
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor Interviewed by RFE/RL
RFE/RL published an interview on June 24, 2013 with Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor. Mr. Socor discussed the analogies between developments in Transnistria and South Ossetia.
Patrushev in Bucharest: Russia Resetting Relations with Romania?
The Barack Obama Administration’s first-term “reset” of the United States’ relations with Russia set in motion a trend in Europe. A number of European governments have adapted the US-Russia “reset”
Gazprom Withdraws from Tender for Greek Gas System
Russian Gazprom was poised to take over Greece’s Public Gas Corporation (DEPA), but has withdrawn from the tender literally on the last possible day. The final, binding offer was due
Igor Sechin Door-Crashing in Croatia
Croatia is set to join the European Union as a full member on July 1. This makes Croatia a more attractive object of Russian energy interests. The head of Zarubezhneft
Putin Hints at Normalization with Georgia on Russian Terms
Russia’s barbed-wire fence construction in Georgia beyond the occupation line (see EDM, June 3, 11–13, 17) has provided another demonstration of the shifting balance of power (“new geopolitical realities”) in
Georgia’s Reset and Russia’s Response (Part Four)
One major assumption behind the new Georgian government’s Russia policy holds that Georgia might regain its Russian-occupied territories in the future through a negotiated solution. This presupposes making Georgia an
EDM analysts cited in Eurasia Review article
Jamestown analysts Roger McDermott, Vladimir Socor, Pavel Felgenhauer, Georgiy Voloshin, Richard Weitz, and Dumitru Minzarari were cited in an article by Ariel Cohen in Eurasia Review.
Georgia’s Reset and Russia’s Response (Part Three)
Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili supervises Georgia’s policy toward Russia through his special envoy, veteran diplomat Zurab Abashidze. This appointment has led to the establishment of a bilateral negotiating channel between
Georgia’s Reset and Russia’s Response (Part Two)
The construction of barbed wire fences by Russian border troops, crossing from South Ossetia into previously uncontested Georgian territory (see Part One, EDM, June 11), caught Tbilisi and its Western
Georgia’s Reset and Russia’s Response (Part One)
From its first days in power, the Georgian Dream coalition government under Bidzina Ivanishvili unilaterally set out to improve relations with Russia, and it has taken a series of unilateral
Minor Russian Company Hints at Gazprom Support to Buy Greek Pipelines
Pressed by international creditors and its own insolvency, Greece is selling off DEPA/DESFA, the state-controlled natural gas company. While Russian Gazprom looks set to acquire DEPA (Public Gas Corporation, the
Gazprom Sets Stage for Takeover of Greek State Gas Company
Insolvent Greece is auctioning off its state assets, both as a matter of necessity and as a condition imposed by international creditors for bailing out the country. The state-controlled natural
Comparative Advantages of Nabucco-West Offset By Lack of Financing
The Nabucco Committee’s meeting (see accompanying article) on May 21 in Bucharest has provided perhaps the final opportunity for comprehensively assessing the Nabucco-West project’s comparative advantages as a route for
Nabucco-West Project, European Commission Face Same Moment of Truth in Baku
On May 29, in Baku, addressing the final session of the Azerbaijani-American Forum’s “Vision for the future,” former United States Senator Richard Lugar underscored that the Nabucco-West gas pipeline project
Merabishvili’s Arrest and the Erosion of Rule of Law in Georgia
The Georgian government under Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili is escalating the level of repression and threats against the pro-Western opposition United National Movement (UNM). The arrest of UNM’s leader Vano
Washington Failing to Speak Up on Ivanishvili’s Transgressions
On May 21, United National Movement (UNM) Secretary General Vano Merabishvili, a probable candidate in the upcoming presidential election, former internal affairs minister and prime minister, was arrested by prosecutors
Who Controls What: State Institutions and the Power Struggle in Moldova
Moldova’s move from one-party Communist rule to coalition government has led straight to conflict for control of state institutions among the coalition’s parties. That conflict has destroyed the governing Alliance
Sources of Moldova’s Political Chaos: The Partition of State Institutions
The downfall of Moldova’s governing Alliance for European Integration (AEI), and the earlier collapse of Ukraine’s Orange coalition, are comparable processes in their origins and their consequences. There is also
Sources of Moldova’s Political Chaos: The Party System and Coalition Rule
The myth of Moldova as “the success story” in the European Union’s neighborhood, has clearly expired. Moldova’s institutions and rule of law have foundered in the chaos of its party
Sources of Moldova’s Political Chaos: The Parliamentary System
Moldova’s tripartite government, the Alliance for European Integration (AEI), has foundered over its internal contradictions, and will no longer be resuscitated in its previously existing form. Two of AEI’s parties
Demise of Moldova’s Alliance for European Integration Surprises European Union’s Leaders
In a stream of statements from Brussels and Strasbourg, European Union leaders sound shocked by the demise of Moldova’s tripartite Alliance for European Integration (AEI), and more generally by the
Moldovan Political Realignments Stop Billionaire Tycoon’s Bid for Power
Moldova’s governing Alliance for European Integration (AEI) has collapsed in slow motion, de facto in February and officially on April 22. Interrelated with this development, the Liberal-Democrat Party of Vlad
Georgia a ‘Haven for Terrorists’: Ivanishvili Recycles Moscow’s Long-Discarded Narrative
Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili is echoing Russia’s old narrative about Georgia as a “haven for terrorists” (see EDM, April 3, 16, 17, May 3). Moscow, however, had largely given up
Georgian Authorities Investigate Former Government to Hit at Current Opposition
Georgia’s government under Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili claims that the former government (2003–2012) under President Mikheil Saakashvili (who is still in office) has colluded with Chechen or other “North Caucasian”
Georgian Prime Minister Accuses Previous Government of Collusion with Terrorists
In four consecutive statements to the international press and local media, as well as to a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) conference, Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili has pilloried the
Polish Government Sheds Light on Gazprom-EuroPolGaz MOU
Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, has announced some strong measures in response to the April 5 memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between EuroPolGaz and Russian Gazprom, negotiated behind the Polish government’s
Nabucco Countries’ Governments Appeal to EU for Support of the Project
The governments of transit countries in the Nabucco-West project—Austria, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria—have appealed to the European Union’s top executive authorities to support the selection of this pipeline route by
Moldovan Prime Minister Filat Ousted by Intra-Coalition Rivals
Moldova is again experiencing a vacancy of government. The tripartite Alliance for European Integration (AEI), under the Liberal-Democrat Prime Minister Vlad Filat, collapsed on March 5, abandoned by its other
Moldova’s Tycoon Plahotniuc Gaining Political Influence
Moldova’s wealthiest businessman, Vlad Plahotniuc, is expanding his influence over state institutions. The power struggle, pitting Plahotniuc along with his Democratic Party (officially led by Parliament Chairman Marian Lupu) against
Bait and Switch: Russia Multiplies Gas Route Offers to Europe
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Gazprom are announcing colossal plans to expand the capacities of existing gas export pipelines and build new ones, all in Europe beyond Russia’s territory (see
High-Cost Redundancies: Gazprom’s Pipeline Projects in Europe
Gazprom’s chief spokesman, Sergei Kupryanov, has announced plans to vastly increase Russia’s pipeline capacities for gas export to Europe, far above Gazprom’s existing supply commitments or possibilities. Along with this,
Ivanishvili and Coalition Partners Threaten to Incriminate Georgia over 2008 Russian Invasion (Part Two)
Georgia’s Prosecutor-General Archil Kbilashvili (formerly a legal counsel to the current Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili), Justice Minister Tea Tsulukiani (who does not have a formal degree in law), Georgian Dream
Ivanishvili and Coalition Partners Threaten to Incriminate Georgia Over 2008 Russian Invasion (Part One)
On April 10 and 12, Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili amplified the prosecutor-general’s, justice minister’s, and other officials’ recent threats (see EDM, April 1) to investigate President Mikheil Saakashvili and his
Vladimir Socor quoted by Zawya
Jamestown analyst Vladimir Socor was quoted by Zawya in an article titled Nabucco, TAP battle it out for Azeri gas deal.
Gazprom Extends Its Infrastructure Network in Germany Through Joint Ventures
As part of their agreement of intent to expand the Nord Stream pipeline system into northwestern Europe (see EDM, April 11), Russian Gazprom and Dutch Nederlandse Gasunie have further agreed
Russia Plans Massive Expansion of Nord Stream Pipelines
On April 8 in Amsterdam, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte witnessed the signing of an agreement of intent to expand the Gazprom-controlled Nord Stream pipeline
Yamal-Europe Two: A Gazprom Project That Poland Does Not Need
Poland does not need another pipeline for Russian gas. The government has already signed long-term agreements with Russia in 2010, valid until 2022 for gas supply to Poland itself, and
Will Poland Consider a Gas Deal with Russia at Ukraine’s Expense?
On April 3, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Gazprom CEO Aleksei Miller proposed building a new pipeline for Russian gas through Poland to other European Union countries in Central Europe,
Putin, Miller Unveil Pipeline Project to Bypass Ukraine via Poland
On April 3, in Moscow, President Vladimir Putin and Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller announced a colossal series of gas projects. These involve an expansion of existing big projects or a
Georgian Dream Seizes Local Administrations from Elected UNM Incumbents
Six months into Georgia’s regime-change, “transfer of powers” and “co-habitation,” these processes are still far from “orderly.” The most (or best) that may be said is that they are peaceful,
Georgia’s New Authorities Threaten to Investigate President Saakashvili and Allies
On March 31, Prosecutor General Archil Kbilashvili threatened to summon Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili for questioning in at least three parallel criminal investigations. One of these would focus on the
Implications of Ukraine’s Gas Imports from Europe
According to Naftohaz Ukrainy officials, all the ongoing natural gas purchases from German RWE (see accompanying article) are carried out under a framework agreement signed in May 2012. This envisages
Ukraine Importing Gas from Germany via Hungary and Poland
Denting Russian Gazprom’s monopoly, Ukraine is procuring small but growing volumes of natural gas from Europe. The German Rheinisch-Westfaelisches Elektrizitaetswerk (RWE) is providing the volumes through its subsidiary, RWE Supply
Turkey More Cooperative with Western Energy Companies than It Seems
Turkey’s Energy and Natural Resources Minister Taner Yildiz has seemingly threatened Italian ENI—and, implicitly, other foreign energy companies—with retaliation against their projects in Turkey, if they sign offshore gas development
TAP Project Surging Ahead of Rival Nabucco-West (Part Two)
The gas producers’ consortium at Shah Deniz in Azerbaijan is holding parallel negotiations with the pipeline project companies, Nabucco and Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), to select one of these routes to
TAP Project Surging Ahead of Rival Nabucco-West (Part One)
Among the roles of Gazprom’s South Stream pipeline project was that of aborting the EU-backed Nabucco, merely by threatening to preempt Nabucco’s markets along the same route downstream. Conversely, Nabucco’s
Izmir Port Project Magnifies Azerbaijan’s Integrated Investments in Turkey
On March 22 in Copenhagen, the Danish and Turkish prime ministers, Helle Thorning-Schmidt and Recep Tayyp Erdogan, witnessed the signing of agreements between subsidiaries of Danish Moeller-Maersk and Azerbaijan’s State
Georgia’s Western Course Reaffirmed in Bipartisan Consensus
Objectively, the Georgian Dream government is a legatee of the Mikheil Saakashvili government’s trademark foreign policy. National interests require the new government to build on the legacy of its predecessor.On
Georgia and the United States: De-Alignment Through Regime Change? (Part Three)
The Barack Obama administration declared victory for the “democratic process” in Georgia immediately after that country’s October 1, 2012, parliamentary elections. It defined that victory narrowly as an “orderly transfer
Georgia and the United States: De-Alignment Through Regime Change? (Part Two)
The Barack Obama administration publicly called for an “orderly transfer of power” during Georgia’s electoral campaign. President Obama first gave this message, publicly and (still more explicitly) privately, to the
Georgia and the United States: De-Alignment Through Regime Change? (Part One)
The United States had strongly influenced Georgia’s politics during Mikheil Saakashvili’s presidency. This influence is waning since the regime change that has empowered Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili. The October 2012
Questions Linger on Voter Behavior in Georgia’s Elections
Georgia’s October 2012 parliamentary elections amounted to a plebiscite on the policies of Mikheil Saakashvili’s government. Voters responded by giving his rival Bidzina Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream 85 parliamentary seats, against
Electoral Democracy: Path to State Capture in Georgia
In October 2012, Georgia held the freest parliamentary elections in the country’s two decades of experience with competitive multi-party politics. Also for the first time, the opposition defeated the government,
Georgia Adrift, US AWOL After Regime Change
Georgia’s parliamentary elections on October 1, 2012, have ushered in, not merely a rotation of government, but a change of regime, from President Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) to
Political Factions Threaten to Derail Moldova’s European Course (Part Two)
Moldova’s Alliance for European Integration (AEI), governing since 2009, has all along been wracked by rivalries, pitting the two smaller parties against the larger one. The lure of Europe, and
Political Factions Threaten to Derail Moldova’s European Course (Part One)
Until a few days ago, Moldova was on course to sign or at least to initial an Association Agreement with the European Union this year. Moldova was outpacing the other
Russia Trips up Ukraine’s OSCE Chairmanship in Transnistria
Ukraine has declared the Transnistria conflict a top priority issue of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Ukrainian chairmanship in 2013 (OSCE press release, February 19). Nominally,
Croatian Government Considers Expansion of Russian Energy Companies (Part Two)
Last month, the Croatian government signed up to Gazprom’s South Stream pipeline project; it agreed to re-start importing certain gas volumes from Gazprom through existing pipelines from 2013 onward; it
Croatian Government Invites Expansion of Russian Energy Companies (Part One)
Croatia is expected to join the European Union as a full member in July of this year. In the energy sector, however, Croatia’s center-left government is marking the EU accession
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor cited by News.Az
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor was cited by News.Az in an article concerning the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.
Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor Cited by Azeri APA News Outlet
Jamestown's Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor was quoted by Azerbaijan's APA news outlet on October 19, discussing US policy toward Karabakh.
Filat’s Reset: Moldovan Prime Minister Reaches out to Putin and Medvedev
Moldovan Prime Minister Vlad Filat’s September 10–12 back-to-back visits with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (see accompanying article) amount to a reset of bilateral relations initiated
Moldova’s Filat Discusses Energy Sector Agreement with Russia’s Putin and Medvedev
On September 10–12, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev received Moldovan Prime Minister Vlad Filat with his governmental delegation in Moscow and Sochi, respectively. The Transnistria conflict
Azerbaijan Drives the Planning on Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline Project
The Azerbaijani-Turkish Trans-Anatolia gas pipeline project (TANAP) for Caspian gas to Europe seems set to grow in scope and strategic ambitions. The line is planned to run from the Georgia-Turkey
Turkey Sees Opportunity in Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline Project
Turkey is revisiting the trans-Caspian gas pipeline project after a decade-long hiatus. Ankara is now aligning with the European Union, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, supporting the transportation of Turkmenistan’s gas to
President Basescu’s Back in Office, Reinforces Romania’s Ties with the West
On August 21, Romania’s Constitutional Court invalidated the July 29 national referendum on the question of removing President Traian Basescu from office. The referendum had fallen short of the constitutional
Angela Merkel Opens a European Perspective for Moldova
Visiting Moldova on August 22 (see accompanying article), German Chancellor Angela Merkel declared twice unambiguously that Moldova does have a “European perspective”—albeit in a “step-by-step process”; and “we shall accompany
German Government Embraces Moldova’s European Agenda
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s August 22 Moldova visit is being described as “historic” in Chisinau (see accompanying article). The sheer rarity of such events in Moldova is one reason behind
Hot Issue — Voice of Russia Campaigns for Removal of Romanian President Basescu
Executive Summary While the Romanian state has been struggling with a constitutional crisis pitting President Traian Basescu against the Social-Liberal Union (SLU) government of Victor Ponta, the Kremlin mouthpiece Voice
Georgia’s Parliamentary Elections: A Referendum on Reforms
Echoing Ronald Reagan’s 1980 election campaign theme, Georgia’s governing United National Movement (UNM) tells voters to “ask [themselves] a very simple question: Is Georgia now a better country than it
Moscow Can Use West-European Partners in South Stream Project
South Stream, the Russian-led project company, considers moving its legal address and changing its registration from Switzerland to the Netherlands. The reasons behind this internal debate are not being disclosed
Croatia Can Call Gazprom’s Bluff on South Stream
Moscow is “pressuring” Croatia to join Gazprom’s South Stream project urgently, before Croatia’s accession to the European Union takes legal effect in 2013. An internal analysis, prepared by Croatian government
Kazakhstan Expands Gas Transit Pipeline Capacities and Own Exports to China
The longest section of the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China transit pipeline passes through Kazakhstan’s territory: it measures 1,115 kilometers in length, of the total 1,830-kilometer Turkmenistan-China distance. Kazakhstan is adding a dedicated export
Gazprom’s Shtokman Project: Relic of a Past Era
On August 7, Norway’s Statoil announced its exit from the super-giant Shtokman gas field development in the Russian Arctic. The Norwegian company, majority state-owned, is writing off its investment into
China to Increase Central Asian Gas Imports Through Multiple Pipelines
Beijing proposes to increase the volume of Turkmenistani natural gas supplies to China to 65 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, more than doubling the present level of deliveries. This
Kazakhstan’s National Oil Company to Consolidate Bridgehead in Europe
Kazakhstan’s national oil and gas holding, Kazmunaigaz, has started its first-ever oil exploration drilling outside that country. Rompetrol Upstream, a division of Rompetrol Group, is drilling the Kaz-1 exploration well
Putin Suggests Transnistria Self-Determination, Rogozin Displays Transnistria Flag
On July 31, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that Transnistria is entitled to self-determination, implying secession from Moldova. Answering questions at the Kremlin-sponsored Camp Seliger Forum, Putin stated: “Many problematic
Trans-Adriatic Pipeline Project Considers Reconfiguration in TANAP’s Wake
If the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) project did not exist, it may have had to be invented (in this or some other form) by the Shah Deniz gas producers’ consortium in
Azerbaijan-Europe Gas Transportation Consortiums Face Major Restructuring
The Trans-Anatolia Pipeline (TANAP) project, initiated by Azerbaijan with Turkey, is the first real boost to the EU-backed Southern Corridor for Caspian gas to Europe. Planned to carry Azerbaijani (and,
‘Federalization’ Is Back on Russia’s Agenda for Moldova
Moscow has marked the 20th anniversary of its “peacekeeping” in Moldova by multiplying obstacles to conflict-resolution (see EDM, July 27). State Secretary and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Grigory Karasin,
Russia Multiplies Conditions for Conflict-Resolution in Moldova
Russian diplomacy is piling up new pre-conditions upon old ones for conflict-resolution in Transnistria. For the first time since 2003-2004 (when two parallel “federalization” projects collapsed), Russia is openly proposing
Twenty Years of Russian “Peacekeeping” in Moldova
Twenty years ago, on July 21, 1992, the Russian 14th Army’s intervention in the Transnistria conflict forced Moldova to accept the deployment of Russian “peacekeeping” units. Six days later (July
South Stream: A Project with Changeable Geography
Russian President Vladimir Putin wants the South Stream consortium to make a final investment decision by November 2012, and insists that Gazprom start construction work by the same date on
Italy Ambivalent About Gazprom’s South Stream Project
On July 23 in Sochi, Russian President Vladimir Putin obtained a verbal endorsement of Gazprom’s South Stream project from Italy’s new prime minister, Mario Monti, on his first visit to
Georgian Dream’s Parliamentary Candidates: Personal Loyalties Unite an Eclectic Lot
The Georgian Dream opposition coalition, and its dominant party of the same name, has presented almost all of its candidates for single-mandate districts in Georgia’s upcoming parliamentary elections. The name
Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream: Proprietary Electoral Coalition Takes Shape
Bidzina Ivanishvili, multi-billionaire leader of the Georgian Dream opposition party and coalition, has almost completed the nomination of candidates for the upcoming parliamentary elections in single-mandate electoral districts. Most of
Hungarian MOL Goes Upstream in Kazakhstani Projects
On July 19, Hungarian-based MOL entered into a partnership with Kazmunaigaz E&P (Exploration & Production, the upstream subsidiary of the national company Kazmunaigaz) to develop the North Karpovsky oil and
Turkmenistan’s Gas Export Potential: New Implications for Europe
BP’s latest annual Statistical Review of World Energy has revealed Turkmenistan’s proven gas reserves as even bigger than previously assessed (see accompanying article). From Ashgabat’s perspective, European gas markets must
BP’s Appraisal Doubles the Proven Reserves of Turkmenistani Gas
On July 17, British Petroleum (BP) presented the 2012 edition of its annual publication, “Statistical Review of World Energy,” in Ashgabat (Trend, Interfax, July 17). Released each year in June,
Moldova’s Communist Party Haunted by Its Past and Its Present
Moldova’s parliament initially banned the Communist Party and confiscated all its assets in August 1991, when the pro-Soviet putsch failed in Russia while Moldova proclaimed its independence. The banned party
Moldova Condemns Communism at Long Last
Twenty-one years after the Soviet Union’s demise and Moldova’s proclamation of independence, the Moldovan parliament has at last repudiated Communism, albeit by a narrow margin. The Communist Party retains a
Georgian Dream Opposition Leaders Envisage Post-Election Confrontation
From the outset of his political project (October 2011) to date, Georgian Dream movement’s billionaire leader Bidzina Ivanishvili has expressed total confidence in winning the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections.
Georgia’s Parliamentary Elections: Four Underestimated Challenges and Risks (Part One)
The upcoming parliamentary elections pose a unique set of challenges to Georgia’s evolving democracy, the country’s stability and potentially to Georgian statehood itself. The challenges include: vote purchase leading to
Tajikistan Seeks Shorter Term, Better Compensation for Russian Military Base
Tajikistan’s perceived strategic significance is rapidly growing, in anticipation of the US/NATO quasi-withdrawal from Afghanistan by 2014. Tajikistan shares a 1,400 kilometer border with Afghanistan. That border and Tajikistan itself
Baltic LNG Terminals Conditioned by Gas Sector Reform
Lithuania is forging ahead on natural gas sector reform and liquefied natural gas (LNG) access, outpacing other states in the region. In 2011, Lithuania became the first EU member country
Ukraine Enlists German Effort to Upgrade Gas Transit System
On July 2 in Kyiv, Naftohaz Ukrainy and Ferrostaal Industrieanlagen signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) for a pilot project to upgrade Ukraine’s gas transit system. That system carries more
Moldovan Prime Minister Returns with Full Hands from Brussels
On June 27-29 in Brussels, Moldovan Prime Minister Vlad Filat wrapped up four agreements between Moldova and the European Union, advancing his country’s European integration process. Filat led a governmental
Nabucco-West Selected for Caspian Gas Delivery to Central Europe
On June 28, the Shah Deniz gas producers’ consortium in Azerbaijan announced that it has selected the Nabucco-West pipeline project to be the route for Caspian gas into Central Europe.
Trans-Anatolia Gas Project: Vast Impact of Azerbaijan’s Initiative
The Azerbaijani-Turkish Trans-Anatolia gas pipeline project (TANAP), officially launched on June 26 (see EDM, June 27), is impacting a vast field ranging from Turkmenistan, across the South Caucasus and Turkey,
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor interviewed by RFE/RL
Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor was interviewed by RFE/RL about Uzbekistan's exit from the CSTO.
Aliyev, Erdogan Sign Inter-Governmental Agreement on Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline to Europe
On June 26 in Istanbul, Azerbaijan’s and Turkey’s leaders signed the inter-governmental agreement on the Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline (TANAP) project. This agreement marks the start of implementing the EU-planned Southern
Putin, Gazprom Seek to Refloat Shtokman Gas Project
Gazprom’s Shtokman offshore gas project in the Barents Sea faces its third reconfiguration in a decade. The project – a joint venture of Gazprom with French Total and Norwegian Statoil
Russian Companies Map out International Expansion at St. Petersburg Economic Forum
Russian state-controlled companies, Gazprom and Rosneft, mapped out far-reaching expansion programs in bilateral deals with Western companies at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 21-22. Russian President Vladimir
Ex-Northern Alliance Leaders Challenge Kabul over Chinese Project
Anti-Taliban leaders of the former Northern Alliance coexist uneasily with the Kabul government and NATO in Afghanistan’s north. There, China proposes to explore and develop oil and gas fields and
New Chinese Pipeline Proposal: Implications in Central Asia, Afghanistan and Beyond
Beijing has initiated discussions with Kabul over a new transit pipeline for Turkmenistani gas, passing through Afghanistan’s north and Tajikistan to China (see EDM June 19). The proposal’s potential ramifications
Beijing Proposes Turkmenistan-China Gas Pipeline Through Northern Afghanistan
The Chinese government and Afghan President Hamid Karzai envisage a pipeline to deliver Turkmenistani gas, via Afghanistan’s north and through Tajikistan, to China. This could become a rival or a
Clinton in Armenia and Azerbaijan: An Unedifying Valedictory
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton paid valedictory visits to Armenia and Azerbaijan on June 4 and 6, respectively, as part of a regional tour (including a comparatively successful visit
Clinton in Georgia: Political Process or Policy Objectives?
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to Georgia delivered some potentially significant results (see EDM, June 11). These look, however, not nearly as impressive as Clinton’s lavish praise for
Hillary Clinton in Georgia: A Visit with Deliverables
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton paid a visit to Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey on June 4-7, almost two years after her first South Caucasus tour in early July
South Caucasus, Trans-Anatolia, Nabucco-West: Shaping a Pipeline Corridor to Europe
The Azerbaijani-Turkish Trans-Anatolia gas pipeline project (TANAP) has become the basic component of the EU-backed Southern Corridor for Caspian gas to Europe. Shortly after the signing of the Azerbaijan-Turkey memorandum
Obama, Cameron Endorse Azerbaijani-Turkish Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline Project While BP Weighs Its Options
US President Barack Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron have endorsed the Azerbaijani-Turkish project, Trans-Anatolia gas pipeline (TANAP), in their June 5 messages to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The
Russian Interests Continue Expanding into German Oil Industry
On May 31, the Gunvor oil-trading company, 45 percent owned by Gennadiy Timchenko, announced its full acquisition of the Ingolstadt oil refinery in Germany, the top-performing plant of the insolvent
Georgia: The Ultimate Test of NATO’s Open Door Policy
NATO’s Open Door Policy is as old as the Alliance itself, and remains to date a core principle of the Alliance. Under NATO’s founding treaty, the “Allies may, by unanimous
NATO and Georgia: Beyond the Open Door
NATO’s summit on May 20 in Chicago has brought Georgia slightly closer to the “open door” of membership in the Alliance. The Chicago summit’s declaration reaffirms earlier decisions, committing NATO
Chicago Summit: NATO Remains AWOL from Europe’s East
With the salient exception of Georgia, NATO basically ignored its own immediate eastern neighborhood at NATO’ Chicago summit (May 20-21). Europe’s East – a “gray zone” of six countries bordering
“Nabucco-West”: Abridged Pipeline Project Officially Submitted to Shah Deniz Consortium
The Nabucco pipeline consortium has submitted a radically modified version of its project for consideration by the Shah Deniz gas producers’ consortium in Azerbaijan. The modified submission capped intense discussions
Baltic Nuclear Project Agreement Can Be Signed Without Further Delay
Lithuania is reviewing possible options for nuclear fuel supplies to the Baltic regional nuclear power plant, projected at Visaginas in Lithuania. Japan’s Hitachi Corporation and its subsidiary, Hitachi-General Electric of
Ivanishvili starts selling Russian assets for liquidity
Georgian billionaire and aspirant to power, Bidzina Ivanishvili, has started selling some of his assets in Russia for liquidity. Some of the proceeds will probably be ploughed into Ivanishvili’s political
Normal or Special Standards for Georgia’s Elections?
A unique conjunction of external and internal circumstances suggests that Georgia’s upcoming parliamentary elections will be subjected to more (possibly far more) rigorous scrutiny, compared with elections in any of
Nabucco-West in Synergy with Trans-Anatolia Project
Hungary’s critique of the Nabucco project (see accompanying article) has prompted the other partners in the consortium to express their own views. On the whole, these reflect the stakeholders’ common
Hungary Casts Serious Doubt on the Nabucco Project
Hungary has raised some serious questions about the viability of the Nabucco gas pipeline project and the performance of the project company’s management. The Hungarian critique has strongly reverberated in
Russia Backs Greece-Cyprus-Israel Triangle Against Turkey on Offshore Gas
On May 3, Moscow criticized Turkey’s plans to explore natural gas deposits around the divided island of Cyprus, under the protection of Turkish naval and air power. Russian Foreign Affairs
Exploration Intensifying for East-Mediterranean Natural Gas
The Republic of Cyprus, a European Union member country, is proceeding with development of the Aphrodite offshore field. This is the first of 12 offshore gas and oil blocs that
Rogozin Details Preconditions to Transnistria Conflict-Resolution
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin visited Chisinau and Tiraspol for the first time on April 16-17 in his additional role: as Russia’s presidential envoy “for Transnistria,” and chairman on
Rogozin Institutionalizing Direct Relations with Transnistria
On April 16-17 Dmitry Rogozin, Russian Deputy Prime Minister overseeing the arms industry, visited Chisinau and Tiraspol for the first time in his parallel capacities: Russian presidential envoy “for Transnistria”
Gazprom and Its Proxies Bidding for the Gas Sector of Greece
Fourteen companies, including Gazprom and three other Russian firms, are bidding to acquire DEPA and its fully-owned subsidiary DESFA, the Greek state-controlled gas transportation systems. Additionally, Gazprom is targeting Greece’s
Azerbaijan’s Petkim Takeover to Overhaul Turkey’s Petrochemical Industry
Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) is poised to become the largest direct foreign investor in Turkey. According to company president, Rovnag Abdullayev, and foreign investment department chief Vahit Aliyev, SOCAR
Chevron Postpones Shale Gas Exploration in Romania
After Bulgaria (see EDM, January 24), Romania might unnecessarily miss its own chance to explore a promising shale gas potential in partnership with the Chevron Corporation. Unlike the Bulgarian situation,
Interest Growing All-Round in Trans-Anatolia Pipeline Project
Interest is growing among Western gas producers in Azerbaijan, transit companies, and European importers in the Trans-Anatolia project for Caspian gas to Europe. Initiated by Baku as an Azerbaijani-Turkish project,
The Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline and Its Continuation Options to Europe
Interested parties are considering joining, in one way or another, the Azerbaijani-Turkish Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline project (Turkic acronym: TANAP) across Turkey to the European Union’s border. Some of the same
Bulgaria Considers Joining Gazprom’s South Stream While Seeking Alternative Options
On March 30 on his maiden visit to Moscow, Bulgarian Economy and Energy Minister Delyan Dobrev struck a poor deal with Russia. Under imperative instructions from his prime minister, Boyko
The United States and Political Power in Georgia
President Mikheil Saakashvili’s government has so strongly cemented Georgia-US ties that even opposition politicians, such as billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili who ignored the US until now, must reach out to Washington
Lithuania, Hitachi Initial Concession Agreement for Baltic Nuclear Power Plant
On March 30, Lithuania and Japan’s Hitachi Corporation initialed the concession agreement to build a Baltic regional nuclear power plant at Visaginas in Lithuania. The Lithuanian government had selected Hitachi
“Breakthrough of Putin’s Energy Empire” in Croatia?
Croatia’s First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister, Radimir Cacic, held talks with the Russian government and companies in Moscow on March 25-26, soliciting sweeping Russian investments in Croatia (“Breakthrough
Ivanishvili’s Coalition Reveals Destabilizing Potential
With almost cyclical regularity, Georgia’s irreconcilable opposition campaigning against the government ends up turning against the institutional state (early-to-mid 1990s, 2007 and the following years’ “summer offensives”). Motivations can vary
Trans-Anatolia, Nabucco-West Pipeline Projects: An Optimal Fit
As expected (see EDM, January 3, 4, 5), the Nabucco consortium has decided to reconfigure its project for a new role: a European continuation of the Azerbaijani-Turkish, Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline
Romanian-Bulgarian Maritime Dispute Can Affect Exxon’s, South Stream, Nabucco Projects
On March 22 and 25, Romania’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Cristian Diaconescu, announced on television that a “legal dispute” (“litigium”) exists between Romania and Bulgaria over the delimitation of their maritime
Medvedev Appoints Putin’s Special Representatives for Abkhazia and South Ossetia
On March 16, President Dmitry Medvedev appointed Aleksandr Tkachev as Special Representative of the Russian President for Abkhazia. On March 21, Medvedev appointed Teymuraz Mamsurov as Special Representative of the
Dmitry Rogozin Appointed Special Presidential Representative for Transnistria
On March 21, outgoing President Dmitry Medvedev appointed Dmitry Rogozin as Special Representative of the Russian President for Transnistria (“po Pridnestrovyu”). Undoubtedly, Medvedev acted at the behest of the incoming
Gazprom Required to De-Monopolize Access to German OPAL and NEL Pipelines
The European Commission has ruled that the Gazprom-led consortium, Nord Stream, must allow other gas suppliers to share the capacities of that consortium’s pipelines on German territory (Kommersant, March 15;
Moldova Finally Elects a Head of State
On March 16, 2012, the Moldovan parliament elected Nicolae Timofti as state president, a post technically vacant since April 2009. Proposed by the governing Alliance for European Integration (AEI, comprised
Moldova: A Democracy Promoter’s Dream and Nightmare
In theory, and even by certain practical criteria, Moldova should qualify as Exhibit One for successful democracy promotion in non-western societies. All elections held in Moldova from 1991 to date
Moldova Electing a Head of State After Three-Year Void
Moldova’s parliament is scheduled to elect a head of state on March 16 – the eighth presidential election attempt since 2009. The state presidency has been technically vacant for almost
Ivanishvili Stakes out Pre-Election Positions
Bidzina Ivanishvili acts as proprietary leader of his Georgian Dream movement and lesser dependent groups. Having entered politics only five months ago (October 2011), he sounds confident of winning the
State Purchase with Made-in-Russia Money: Ivanishvili’s Bid for Georgia
The latest update of Forbes’ billionaires’ list (www.forbes.com, March 7) raises Bidzina Ivanishvili’s net worth to $6.4 billion, up from the $5.5 billion listed by Forbes and confirmed by Ivanishvili’s
Too Early for a Political Investment in Transnistria’s Shevchuk
Yevgeny Shevchuk’s election as “president” of Transnistria in December 2011 ended the 20-year rule of Igor Smirnov, belatedly replacing a Soviet with a post-Soviet leadership group. Shevchuk defeated the Kremlin-picked
A Failed Re-Start to 5+2 Negotiations on Transnistria
Six years to the day since their collapse (February 28, 2006), official negotiations on the Transnistria conflict were supposed to restart in Dublin in the 5+2 format (Russia, Ukraine, OSCE,
Russian Oil Companies Buying West European Refineries
Russian oil companies Gunvor, Rosneft, and Lukoil are spearheading what looks like an acquisition spree of refining capacities in Western Europe. Some West-European authorities accept without qualms and even welcome
Lithuania Contracts for LNG Terminal
In 2011, Lithuania became the first European Union member country to enact EU energy market reform on national territory (see EDM, July 7, 2011). Lithuania opted for the most far-reaching
Projects in Synergy: Trans-Caspian, Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipelines
Addressing the Caspian-European Integration Business Club in Baku (Trend, Today.Az, February 29), Azerbaijan’s Industry and Energy Minister Natig Aliyev announced that negotiations on a Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan gas pipeline are advancing, as
“And the Winner Is…”: Belarus and European Union Recall Each Other’s Ambassadors
On February 29, Belarus and the European Union recalled each other’s ambassadors “for consultations,” amid a new round of EU-imposed sanctions against the government of Belarus. In a strategic sense,
“Georgian Dream” Attack Georgia’s NATO Mission in Afghanistan
On February 20-26, Georgia marked “Occupation Week,” commemorating the Red Army’s February 1921 occupation of the Georgian Democratic Republic and the latter’s annexation by Soviet Russia. Public events were held
Ivanishvili Unveils “Georgian Dream” Movement’s Top Team
The billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of the “Georgian Dream” opposition movement, has unveiled the movement’s top team for the upcoming parliamentary elections. A businessman with no previous political experience, Ivanishvili
Russia Completing Baltic Pipeline System Construction, Reducing Druzhba Pipeline Flow
Russia is set to start crude oil exports through the Baltic Pipeline System’s second trunkline, BPS-2, with its Ust-Luga maritime terminal at the Russian end of the Baltic Sea. The
Shah Deniz Consortium Members Signal Conflicting Priorities (Part Two)
In their comments released on February 20-22 (see EDM, February 22), unnamed representatives of the Shah Deniz producers’ consortium postponed from mid-2012 to mid-2013 the selection of a pipeline route
Shah Deniz Consortium Members Signal Conflicting Priorities (Part One)
On February 20-22, one or more anonymous representatives of the Shah Deniz gas producers’ consortium announced their preferred pipeline options for transporting Azerbaijani gas to Europe. Of the existing five
Latvian Language Wins Referendum While Russian Party Shows Nuisance Potential
As arithmetically predetermined, the nays handily prevailed over the ayes in Latvia’s constitutional referendum on instituting Russian as a parallel state language in Latvia. The Russian party, Harmony Center, triggered
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor’s Article Cited by ERR
Estonian Public Broadcasting (ERR) cited Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor's article on Baltic Air Policing on February 20.
Baltic Nuclear Power Plant Project Contends with Extraneous Issues
The Baltic regional nuclear power plant project, at Visaginas in Lithuania, is moving forward despite unfavorable international circumstances. At this point, the adverse circumstances are not internal to the project.
Latvia’s Russian Party Triggers Constitutional Referendum on State Language (Part Two)
Harmony Center, the Russian party in Latvia, has triggered a constitutional referendum on the state language (see EDM, February 15). Harmony calls for Russian to become a state language, in
Latvia’s Russian Party Triggers Constitutional Referendum on State Language
Latvia is holding on February 18 a constitutional referendum on an anti-constitutional proposition. Initiated by local Russian fringe-nationalists and pushed by the local Russian party, Harmony Center, it would confer
Germany, Kazakhstan Sign Strategic Agreement on Rare-Earth Metals
On February 7 in Berlin, the German and Kazakhstani governments signed an agreement on “partnership in the raw materials, industrial and technological spheres.” Chancellor Angela Merkel and Kazakhstan’s visiting president,
Frozen Conflicts Seen as Russia’s Door into “Euro-Atlantic Security Community” (Part Two)
No authority in NATO has endorsed or in any way encouraged the Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative’s (EASI) proposals to introduce Russia into a redefined “Euro-Atlantic security community,” implying decision-making powers for
Frozen Conflicts Seen as Russia’s Door into “Euro-Atlantic Security Community”
The Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative (EASI), a high-profile group of Western and Russian authors, proposes Western accommodation with the existing situation in the four post-Soviet conflicts (Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Karabakh).
Permanent Status Sought for NATO’s Baltic Air-Policing Mission
Discussions are ongoing in NATO about prolonging the air-policing mission over Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The mission’s prolongation will necessitate a decision at NATO’s summit in May in Chicago. Resource
Post-Nabucco Era in Caspian Pipeline Business and Politics
For more than a decade, Nabucco was the only pipeline project (and lately, the frontrunner project) for transporting Caspian gas to EU territory. Nabucco relied exclusively on Azerbaijani gas for
Trans-Anatolia Gas Project and Its Rivals in Comparative Perspective
The Azerbaijan-Turkey project, Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline (TAGP; Turkish acronym TANAP), announced as recently as December 26, emerges as the optimal solution for transporting Azerbaijani gas to Europe, potentially opening the
Lessons Learned and Public Accountability in Kazakhstan After Zhanaozen
On January 31, the state of emergency ended as scheduled in Zhanaozen, the oil town devastated on December 16 when an oil-workers’ strike degenerated into riots. Most of the town’s
Confidence in the Nabucco Project Fading
Confidence in the viability of the Nabucco project – at least in its version envisaged from 2004 to 2011 – seems to be fading all around. On January 25, the
Russian Oil Business Targeting EU’s Entrant Croatia
Croatia has become the newest member of the European Union, with a national referendum on January 22 capping the accession process. The government-controlled JANAF (Jadranski Naftovod – Adriatic Oil Transportation)
Tiraspol’s New Leader Shevchuk: A Man We Can Do Business With?
Yevgeny Shevchuk’s victory in Transnistria’s “presidential” election is an opportune development for Russia, at the opportune moment. Moscow was slow to comprehend this, but will almost certainly act accordingly from
Smirnov out, Shevchuk in: A Short-Term Win-Win for Moscow in Transnistria
The 21-year “Smirnov era” is over in Transnistria, the secessionist enclave in eastern Moldova. The Kremlin has finally dumped Transnistria’s antiquated “president,” Igor Smirnov. A new-generation candidate, Yevgeniy Shevchuk, defeated
Georgian Dream: Ivanishvili Enlists Allies for His Political Project
Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire seeking political power in Georgia, is recruiting political allies to his proprietary Georgian Dream movement, ahead of parliamentary elections. A newcomer to politics, Ivanishvili started out
Georgia Billionaire Appoints Wife as Movement Leader While Parliament Enacts Financial Safeguards
Georgian billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili has appointed his wife, Ekaterine Khvedelidze, as leader of his Georgian Dream movement. Its legal status is that of a “public,” i.e. a non-political organization. However,
Kazakhstan Embarks on Guided Transition to a Multi-Party System
The elections just held in Kazakhstan have successfully accomplished the limited goal of moving from a single-party to a multi-party parliament. This political opening has come about by decision of
Kazakhstan’s Parliamentary Elections: A Cautious Step Toward Political Pluralism
Kazakhstan’s President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, indicated at the time of his re-election in 2011 that conditions were ripe for moving from a single-party to a multi-party parliament. Toward that goal, pre-term
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor Discusses Kazakh Parliamentary Elections with Gazeta.kz
Jamestown's Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor was in Kazakhstan to observe the country's parliamentary elections on January 15. He positively assesses the country's preparation for Kazakh news source, Gazeta.kz.
Ukrainian Government Mishandles Gas Negotiations with Moscow
President Viktor Yanukovych and his government are setting the stage, politically and legislatively, for transferring Ukrainian pipelines to Russian control, in a package deal with Gazprom. The president and government
Putin and Gazprom Juggle South Stream Project Options after Turkish Approval
Moscow has confirmed that Turkey will allow Gazprom’s South Stream pipeline to be built through Turkey’s Black Sea exclusive economic zone, en route to central Europe (“Turkey Gains Little, Ukraine
Turkey Gains Little, Ukraine Has Much to Lose in Ankara Backing Russian South Stream
On December 30, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Gazprom CEO Aleksei Miller announced that Turkey has authorized the construction of Gazprom’s South Stream pipeline through Turkey’s Black Sea exclusive
Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline: Wider Implications of Azerbaijan’s Project (Part Two)
Timing, route, and parameters make Azerbaijan’s Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline a game-changing project. Planned to run from the Georgian-Turkish to the Turkish-Bulgarian border, with a capacity of 16 bcm annually, and
Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline: Wider Implications of Azerbaijan’s Project (Part One)
Energy Ministers, Natig Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Taner Yildiz of Turkey, signed on December 26 in Ankara a memorandum of understanding to build a Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline to Europe, dedicated
Direct Road to Europe: Azerbaijan’s Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline
On December 26 in Ankara, the Energy Ministers of Azerbaijan and Turkey signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to build a Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline to Europe. Crucially, Azerbaijan would be
Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor’s Interview Cited by APA
The APA reported on December 31 about Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor's public remarks on France's weakening position in Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations.
Ivanishvili Launches “Georgian Dream” Movement
Georgian billionnaire Bidzina Ivanishvili launched his political movement, “Georgian Dream,” on December 11 in Tbilisi’s State Concert Hall. The venue and format were tailored to one of his core constituencies:
Zurich Protocols: No Substitute for American Strategy In South Caucasus
The “disbalance of interests” (see EDM, December 15), favoring Russia over the United States in the South Caucasus, used to be offset by superior US resources, attractiveness and credibility. But
Russia More Equal Than the Rest In Karabakh Conflict-Resolution Group
The OSCE’s year-end conference spotlighted the ineffectiveness of the “Minsk Group’s” co-chairs – Russia, the United States, and France – to mediate a solution to the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. The OSCE
Russia Blocks Consensus At OSCE’s Year-End Conference
On December 6-7 in Vilnius, the OSCE’s year-end ministerial conference dramatized this organization’s vulnerability to sabotage by the Kremlin. That vulnerability is inherent in the OSCE’s own structure and modus
Russian MFA Defends Soviet Annexation of Baltic States and Moscow
On December 1 and 2, respectively, Lithuania’s and Estonia’s ministries of foreign affairs (MFAs) refuted the Russian MFA’s latest claims that the three Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) had
US, NATO Acknowledge Russian Kill of CFE Treaty
In December 2007, Moscow killed the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) officially, declaring a unilateral “moratorium” (suspension) of indefinite duration on Russia’s compliance with the CFE treaty and
Timely Development Essential For Bringing Turkmen Gas to Europe
Following the second phase of auditing Turkmen gas reserves, the British consultancy company Gaffney Cline & Associates (GCA, one of the world leaders in the profession) estimates the reserves in
Bluff In Substance, Brutal In Form: Moscow Warns Against Trans-Caspian Project
The Soviet art of socialist realism used to be defined as “socialist in substance, national in form.” Threats to prevent the construction of a trans-Caspian gas pipeline by military force
Lavrov Squashes Hope for Constructive Restart of Transnistria Negotiations
International negotiations on the Transnistria conflict are scheduled to re-start on November 30-December 1, for the first time in almost six years. The OSCE’s Lithuanian chairmanship helped facilitate the re-start
Bidzina Ivanishvili Expounds His Political Plans
Bidzina Ivanishvili, whose confirmed $5.5 billion worth of assets outside Georgia is equal to one half of Georgia’s annual GDP, expatiated on his political plans at his first-ever news conference
BP’s South-East European Pipeline: More Questions Than Answers On Nabucco and Turkmen Gas
The Izmir agreements on the transit of Azerbaijani gas to Europe through Turkish pipelines (see EDM, November 1) and the BP-proposed South-East European Pipeline for gas (see EDM, November 2)
South-East Europe Pipeline: A Downsized Nabucco Proposed By BP
Azerbaijan and the Shah Deniz gas producers’ consortium have just signed bilateral agreements with Turkey on gas transit to Europe (see EDM, November 1). Meanwhile, the Shah Deniz consortium is
Azerbaijan and Its Gas Consortium Partners Sign Agreements With Turkey
On October 25 in Izmir, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, witnessed the signing of agreements on the delivery and transit of Azerbaijani gas to
European Commission Disapproves of Croatian Restrictions On Hungarian MOL
The European Commission has pronounced against the Croatian government’s changes to the law on ownership of INA, the Croatian oil and gas company. The changes would have reserved for the
“Ethnic Voting” In Latvia: Three Misconceptions
Latvia’s recent parliamentary elections, and the complicated process of forming a coalition government, sparked the most intensive debate yet on “ethnic voting” in Latvia. In many ways the country is
A Latvian Government for Latvia
On October 25 Latvia’s government approved the country’s new government, a three-party center-right coalition that does not include the leftist Russian party Harmony Center (BNS, LETA, October 25). This outcome
Tajikistan Prefers American Over Russian Assistance For Border Management
Visiting Tajikistan on October 22-23, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton promised US assistance for improving the country’s border management and anti-drug enforcement, in view of growing instability in neighboring Afghanistan.
Ashgabat Unimpressed By Moscow’s Objections On Trans-Caspian Pipeline
The updated estimates of Turkmenistan’s vast gas reserves (see EDM, October 20) and the European Commission’s support for a trans-Caspian pipeline to Europe are unwelcome by Moscow. On October 14,
New Turkmen Gas Reserve Estimates Confirm Vast Export Potential
By the latest estimates, Turkmenistan’s potential gas reserves are even larger than previously thought, encouraging the European Union to tap into this potential, and motivating Ashgabat to cooperate with Brussels
Ivanishvili Suggests Georgian Equidistance Between West and Russia
For all their length, Bidzina Ivanishvili’s two “open letters” to the country (Civil Georgia, October 7, 12; EDM, October 14) barely touch on foreign policy generally, or relations with Russia
Billionaire Ivanishvili Offers to Lead the Opposition In Georgia
Bidzina Ivanishvili, whose $5.5 billion, made-in-Russia wealth equals Georgia’s state budget, has announced his candidacy for one of Georgia’s two top posts under the new constitution: prime minister or chairman
Georgia Tycoon Ivanishvili Ready to Bid For State Purchase
Bidzina Ivanishvili’s spokesmen confirm the Forbes List estimate of his wealth. At $5.5 billion, this is approximately equal to Georgia’s state budget expenditures. It is also equivalent to one half
Ivanishvili and Georgia: From Personal Paternalism to State Paternalism?
The tycoon Bidzina Ivanishvili, worth $5.5 billion on the latest Forbes List, has announced his intention to become Georgia’s political leader. A reclusive figure throughout his life thus far, Ivanishvili
Will Russia Allow OSCE’s ODIHR to Observe Elections Again?
For almost eight years, Russia has not allowed OSCE’s election-observation agency, the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), to observe parliamentary and presidential elections in that country. Russia’s
Inspections At Gazprom In the EU: Why Now?
The European Commission has launched a round of inspections at Gazprom’s affiliate companies in EU member countries. This is the opening stage in an anti-trust investigation of the Russian monopoly’s
Putin’s Eurasian Manifesto Charts Russia’s Return to Great Power Status
Russia’s prime minister and president-in-waiting, Vladimir Putin, has published a lengthy manifesto on integrating the “post-Soviet space” economically around Russia (“New Integration Project for Eurasia: The Future Is Being Born
EU Launches Anti-Trust Investigation Against Gazprom and Its Affiliates
The European Commission (executive arm of the EU) has launched a systematic anti-trust investigation of Russian Gazprom’s operations in European Union countries. From September 27 onward, the Commission has conducted
Croatia’s EU Accession Can Relieve Political Pressures On Hungarian MOL
In a last-minute reversal, Croatia has decided to request the European Commission’s opinion on legal amendments that would bar Hungarian MOL from acquiring more than 49 percent of ownership shares
Turkey Seeks Price Cut On Russian Gas
Turkey has joined the growing ranks of claimants to revision of their contracts with Gazprom. On September 29, Turkish Energy Minister, Taner Yildiz, warned that Turkey would end a 25-year-old
Ukraine and Azerbaijan Map Out LNG Project Via Georgia and Black Sea
To reduce its dependence on expensive Russian natural gas, Ukraine proposes to import Azerbaijani liquefied natural gas (LNG) via Georgia and across the Black Sea to Ukraine. Recent gas discoveries
Nabucco’s Rivals Deploy Their Counter-Arguments
Baku expects three gas transportation consortiums to submit competing bids by October for the gas production of Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz field, Phase Two. The rival projects are Nabucco (Turkey-Bulgaria-Romania-Hungary-Austria, potentially
Russia Agrees to Re-Launch Negotiations On Transnistria After Five-Year Breakdown
On September 22 in Moscow, participants in international negotiations on the Transnistria conflict announced their collective intention to re-launch official negotiations after a five-year breakdown. This means that Russia and
After Elections, Latvia Can Have a Latvian Government Again (Part Two)
All three of Latvia’s Western-oriented parties together won the September 17 parliamentary elections on the basis of a common set of values: commitment to NATO and the EU, market economics,
After Elections, Latvia Can Have a Latvian Government Again (Part One)
As anticipated (see EDM, July 27, 28), Latvia’s parliamentary elections held on September 17 have brought the country to a potentially fateful crossroads. The choice is between consolidating Latvia’s national
Gazprom’s South Stream Shareholders Sign Agreement On Black Sea Offshore Pipeline
On September 16 in Sochi, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin presided over the signing of a shareholders’ agreement to build the offshore section of the South Stream gas pipeline (Interfax,
European Union Officially Endorses Trans-Caspian Pipeline to Link Up With Nabucco
Two decisions, adopted in quick succession by the Council of the EU and the European Commission, signify major advances in developing the European Union’s common external policy on energy. The
Warsaw Pact, CIS Peacekeeping, CSTO Operations: Moscow Develops “Collective” Intervention Concept (Part Two)
Emboldened by international tolerance of its seizure of Moldovan territory in 1992 (see Part One in EDM, September 15), but still unable to muster support on the state level within
Warsaw Pact, CIS Peacekeeping, CSTO Operations: Moscow Develops “Collective” Intervention Concept (Part One)
Russia’s presidential think-tank, INSOR, has drafted a blueprint for using the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) as a multinational cover on Russia-led stability operations. Moscow envisions such contingencies in the
Russia Proposes to Codify Intervention Right Via CSTO
CSTO’s Secretary-General, Nikolai Bordyuzha, has expatiated on proposals to use the Collective Security Treaty Organization as a tool of Russian intervention within member countries. His latest statements focus on managing
Major Gas Discovery Announced In Azerbaijan
The French company, Total, and Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) have announced a major gas discovery at the offshore Absheron field. According to Total, the first results from the exploration
Medvedev’s Think-Tank Proposes Reinforcing Russia-Led CSTO (Part Two)
Russian policy makers are in the process of defining conditions under which the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) might intervene to maintain political and civil order within member countries other
Medvedev’s Think Tank Proposes Reinforcing Russia-Led CSTO (Part One)
President Dmitry Medvedev’s think-tank, the Institute for Contemporary Development (INSOR), has worked out proposals for reorganizing the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to raise its effectiveness and expand its
Quadripartite Summit On Afghanistan Falls Short of Russian Expectations
Presidents Dmitry Medvedev of Russia, Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan, Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan, and Emomali Rakhmon of Tajikistan held a quadripartite meeting on September 2 in Dushanbe. The presidents
Renowned Stage Director Sturua Loses State Post
Georgia’s internationally renowned stage director, Robert Sturua, has been released by the Culture Ministry from his post as head of the Rustaveli National Theater in Tbilisi. In a nation so
Nabucco Project Can Advance Faster Than Rivals
Nabucco, the strategic project for transportation of Caspian gas to Europe, seems threatened by the non-strategic pipeline projects, ITGI (Interconnector Turkey-Greece-Italy) and TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline). These are less advanced, compared
Non-Strategic Rivals Undermine the Strategic Nabucco Project
The ITGI (Interconnector Turkey-Greece-Italy) and TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline), with planned capacities at 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually for each, require no further sourcing beyond Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz field, Phase
Three Pipeline Consortiums Compete Over Access to Azerbaijan Gas
Three pipeline project consortiums (Nabucco, ITGI, and TAP) compete against each other over priority access to gas production in Azerbaijan. The transporters’ contest is now intensifying as the deadline draws
Terrorist Incident At Defense Ministry In Tallinn
On August 11 in Tallinn, an armed member of the local neo-Soviet milieu forced his way into Estonia’s defense ministry, fired pistol shots, detonated smoke bombs, and took two hostages.
Medvedev and the Prospects for Russian-Georgian Relations
Interviewed on the third anniversary of the Russia-Georgia war, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev took credit for the invasion orders and subsequent basing of Russian troops in Abkhazia and South Ossetia
Medvedev Proud of Russia-Georgia War On Third Anniversary
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev marked the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Georgia by visiting a Spetsnaz unit (Interfax, August 8), and assailing both Georgia and the United States in
Under NATO’s Flag: an Interim Assessment of the Mission in Libya (Part Three)
As in Iraq and Afghanistan, a Western coalition intervened in Libya with only a weak grasp of the local society. The coalition underestimated the resilience of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s base
Under NATO’s Flag: An Interim Assessment of the Mission In Libya (Part Two)
NATO embarked almost haphazardly in March on the Libya mission. The Alliance became the third entrant to this mission in a rapid sequence, after the United States and the Franco-British
Under NATO’s Flag: An Interim Assessment of the Mission In Libya (Part One)
NATO is only nominally in charge of the stalemated war in Libya. The Alliance’s leader, the United States, was quick to move to a back seat in this operation after
Yerevan Thwarts the US-Backed Armenia-Turkey Rapprochement
Barely a week after US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, had asked Turkey’s leaders in Ankara to open the Turkish-Armenian border, Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan has thwarted that effort by
Armenian President Casts Doubt On Ongoing Negotiating Processes
Armenian President, Serzh Sarksyan, has hinted at historic territorial claims against Turkey, and implied that he regarded the seizure of Azerbaijani territory as final. Addressing an audience of students from
GRU Responsible For Bomb Incident At US Embassy In Tbilisi
The US intelligence community has concluded that a Russian military intelligence officer, based in Abkhazia, commissioned the bomb blast outside the US embassy in Tbilisi and other bomb explosions during
Realignments In Latvia’s Political Landscape Ahead of Crucial Elections (Part Two)
Latvia is headed for pre-term parliamentary and presidential elections, potentially challenging the country’s strategic choices for the first time in two decades (see EDM, July 27). The political forces are
Latvia Facing Its Toughest Test Since 1991 In Upcoming Elections (Part One)
Latvia’s upcoming elections will be the most difficult political test for the nation since the restoration of its independence 20 years ago. Pre-term elections are due to be held, as
Three Georgian Photographers Plea-Bargain for Suspended Sentences
Georgia’s official presidential photographer, another photographer who was an Internal Affairs Ministry contract employee, and the Tbilisi representative of the European Pressphoto Agency (EPA), have all pleaded guilty and received
German Energy Sector Open For Russian Grabs After Merkel Medvedev Meeting (Part Two)
President Dmitry Medvedev and Chancellor Angela Merkel led the Russian-German Interstate Consultations on July 19-20 in Hannover. This annual event, with the collective participation of Russian and German government ministers
German Energy Sector Open For Russian Grabs After Merkel-Medvedev Meeting (Part One)
The German government’s cave-in on nuclear energy has opened the gates to a new round of Russian expansion into Germany’s energy sector. This political decision has boosted demand for natural
Russian Counter-Offers to Baltic Nuclear Power Project In Lithuania
The nuclear power plant project in Lithuania is a regional, not merely a national project (“Lithuania Chooses Hitachi-General Electric to Build Nuclear Power Plant,” EDM, July 19). The Visaginas project
Lithuania Chooses Hitachi-General Electric to Build Visaginas Nuclear Plant
Lithuania has chosen Hitachi-GE Nuclear Energy, a consortium of Japan’s Hitachi and General Electric of the US, as the strategic investor for the planned nuclear power plant in Lithuania. Runner-up
Gazprom Seeks Expansion Into Germany’s Electricity Sector
On July 14, Gazprom CEO Aleksei Miller and RWE president Juergen Grossmann signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would, if implemented, open a new stage of Gazprom’s expansion into
Photographers’ Case In Tbilisi: Five Misconceptions
Georgian media-freedom watchdogs, criticizing the espionage investigation against three local photographers (“Three Photographers Charged With Espionage In Georgia,” EDM, July 14), have crossed the line beyond their own mandate. This
Three Photographers Charged With Espionage In Georgia
Georgia’s official presidential photographer, another photographer who is an Internal Affairs Ministry contract employee, and the Tbilisi representative of the European Pressphoto Agency (EPA), are in pre-trial detention since July
Belarus Reaching Out For Azerbaijani Oil Via Odessa-Brody Pipeline
President Alyaksandr Lukashenka is “caught in a vice, which will only continue to tighten,” between democratically motivated Western pressures and Russia’s “interest in acquiring attractive Belarusian assets from a vulnerable
Ukrainian Government Prepares Public Opinion for Possible Sales of Naftohaz Assets
Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych hinted on July 8 at an imminent vote in the Verkhovna Rada to allow the sale of assets from Naftohaz Ukrainy to foreign investors. Yanukovych
Implications of Lithuania’s Unbundling of Gazprom-Controlled Pipelines
Lithuania has become the first EU country to start implementing the EU’s Third Package of energy market liberalization laws. Estonia is considering a move in the same direction, possibly by
Lithuania Decides to Unbundle Pipelines From Gazprom’s Control
On June 30, the Lithuanian parliament adopted legislation barring the supplier of natural gas (in this case, Gazprom) from owning or operating pipelines in the country. This conforms with the
Lithuania Enlists US Companies for Gas Supply and Transportation Projects
Attending the Lithuanian-chaired, Community of Democracies annual event in Vilnius on July 1, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton endorsed Lithuania’s energy security strategy on its three levels: the national,
Hungarian MOL Harassed In EU Entrant Croatia
Within days after the European Commission had cleared Croatia to join the EU (Financial Times, June 22), political harassment of Hungarian MOL has intensified in Croatia. Russian interests are conveniently
France’s Sale of the Mistral to Russia: The Challenge to NATO’s Transatlantic Partners
SummaryFollowing two years of negotiations, France and Russia have at last signed a contract finalizing the sale of two French Mistral-class amphibious-assault, helicopter-carrier ships to the Russian Navy for $1.7
Arms Transfers to Russia: An Internal Challenge to NATO
As NATO’s predicaments multiply, so do its political difficulties in acknowledging problems, let alone remedying them. The transfer of modern military technology to Russia has become a serious internal challenge
Mistral-Class Ships To Strengthen Russia Over Maritime Neighbors
A power projection tool by definition, Mistral-class ships would give Russia an unprecedented offensive capability, with potentially intimidating effect opposite small and poorly armed maritime neighbors. Designed and equipped for
France, Russia Sign Contract On Mistral Warships
As a highlight of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (see EDM, June 20), Russian President Dmitry Medvedev witnessed the signing of the contract for two French Mistral-class warships to
Moscow Meeting Fails to Re-Launch 5+2 Negotiations On Transnistria Conflict
Efforts to re-launch negotiations on Transnistria conflict-settlement, after a five-year breakdown, in the 5+2 format (Russia, Ukraine, OSCE, the United States, European Union, Chisinau, Tiraspol) collapsed on June 21 in
Transnistria Conflict Negotiations On the Brink of a False Start
Negotiators are meeting in Moscow today (June 21) to re-launch the 5+2 format (Russia, Ukraine, OSCE, the United States, European Union, Chisinau, Tiraspol) for Transnistria conflict-settlement, after a five-year breakdown
Nabucco Project Support Agreements Meet Interests Of Caspian Gas Producers
On June 8 in Kayseri (Turkey), Nabucco project companies from the five transit countries –Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Austria– signed with those countries’ corresponding ministries the Project Support Agreements
Gas Talks In Moscow Raise Pressures On Ukraine
On June 7 in Moscow, Prime Ministers Vladimir Putin and Nikolai Azarov held tense negotiations on the terms of Russian gas supplies to Ukraine. The government in Kyiv and its
Possible Pitfalls For Chisinau In The Upcoming 5+2 Negotiations
Moscow and Berlin converge in asking Chisinau to give up the 2005 law on Transnistria conflict-resolution principles, renounce the unitary character of the state, and (backstage) to move toward federalizing
German Initiatives Favor Russia On Transnistria Talks
(Part Two) In the context of Russo-German special relations, the German government proposes to restart international negotiations on the Transnistria conflict from a modified basis, one largely favorable to Russian
German Diplomacy Tilts Toward Russia On Transnistria Negotiations
(Part One) International negotiations on the Transnistria conflict are set to resume on June 21, for the first time since 2006, in the 5+2 format (Russia, Ukraine, OSCE, the United
South Stream’s Credibility Problems Deepen After Brussels Promotional Event
Russian Energy Minister, Sergei Shmatko, and Gazprom’s top hierarchy, along with their West-European business allies, advertised the South Stream project at a promotional event on May 25 in Brussels (Interfax,
Necessary Step, Dangerous Rationalization: NATO Prolongs Libya Campaign
On June 1 in Brussels, the North Atlantic Council approved a prolongation of the NATO-flagged campaign in Libya for another 90 days –that is, until the end of September (www.nato.int,
Russia to the West’s Rescue in Libya?
As predicted from the outset of the Libya crisis (EDM, April 21, 26), Russia now officially proposes to “help” extricate the Western belligerents from their difficulties in Libya. Moreover, Moscow’s
Surgut’s Exit From Hungary Is a Success for Europe
Hungary’s government has successfully completed negotiations with the Russian government and Surgutneftegaz about the latter’s exit from Hungary. The government is purchasing Surgut’s 21.2 percent stake in the oil and
Violent Militants’ Camp Dispersed By Police in Tbilisi
Some 500 demonstrators in a makeshift camp, many of them carrying long sticks and wearing masks, defied police calls to end an unlawful rally on the night of May 25
Moscow Encourages Turmoil in Georgia
Moscow has stimulated the radical opposition’s actions in Tbilisi (see EDM, May 24), and stands ready to exploit the unrest. Russian state television channels provide sympathetic, over-dramatized coverage of the
Opposition Launches Another “Final Fight” Against Georgian Government
The militant opposition has launched its annual campaign to topple the Georgian government. One wing, describing itself as People’s Assembly, is holding daily street rallies in Tbilisi from May 21
Moscow Initiates Mediation Between Tripoli and Benghazi
As anticipated (EDM, April 26), Russia is offering its mediation services in Libya to capitalize on NATO’s predicament. The Russian government has invited emissaries from both Libyan sides, Tripoli and
Coalition of the Willing Stands in for NATO in Libya
NATO’s combat operation in Libya involves only 10 out of 28 member countries. It amounts to a coalition-of-the-willing from among NATO members, continuing a pattern set in Iraq (NATO’s flag
NATO in Libya: An Improvised Intervention
The United States kick-started the Libya operation on March 19, in charge of Operation Odyssey Dawn, and launching air and missile strikes until April 3. The French, British, and several
NATO and the Responsibility to Protect: Whom Exactly?
Following in US footsteps, NATO has stumbled into its own war of choice in Libya. The rationale in this case is an assumed “responsibility to protect” populations, apparently anywhere, from
Russia Seeks China’s Support on Libya Crisis
On May 6 in Moscow, President Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov each received Lavrov’s Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi. According to Lavrov at the concluding news conference, Russia
NATO Clarifies Goals in Libya
NATO allies seek additional military, political, and financial means to overcome the unanticipated stalemate in Libya. Alliance leaders are also addressing incipient symptoms of fatigue with the seemingly protracted operation,
Russia Starts Atrocity-Propaganda Against NATO Over Libya
NATO leaders seem aware of the imperative to escalate the air campaign for a swift successful end to the Libya war, admittedly at the cost of collateral damage. This has
Regime Changers And Constitutional Parties In The Georgian Opposition
With the onset of warm weather, radical opposition groups in Tbilisi plan their seasonal regime-change campaign. Judging by their latest declarations, their tactic remains unchanged since 2007: instigating disorder in
Russia Placing Itself Above the Fray in Libya
Russia has signaled that it can leverage its veto in the UN Security Council to entrap NATO in a protracted conflict in Libya. On April 26, Foreign Affairs Minister, Sergei
Lavrov Elaborates on Non-Use-of-Force Proposals in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali
On April 25 and 26, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov paid a “working visit” to the occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Russia unilaterally “recognizes” as states. He
Russia Offers “Mediation Services” in Libya Crisis
Russia is moving fast to gel the stalemate in Libya, pin down the US and NATO there, and exploit their predicament by casting itself as a conflict-resolution facilitator (EDM, April
Prosecution Of Tymoshenko In Ukraine: An Internal Political Tool, Not a Gas Contract Revision Tool
Ukrainian authorities have launched a fresh criminal investigation against former Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, along with the criminal prosecution of Oleh Dubyna, head of Naftohaz Ukrainy under Tymoshenko’s premiership. Both
Ukraine’s Government Frantically Seeks Another Discount On Russian Gas
Undermining their own negotiating position, Ukraine’s top leaders sound desperate for a price discount on Russian gas, and hurriedly offer pre-emptive concessions to Moscow. On April 21 President, Viktor Yanukovych,
Russia Unveils Political Objectives In Libya
Russia’s abstention on the UN Security Council Resolution 1973 helped open the door to Western military action on a limited scale in Libya. The Obama administration led the military action
Moscow Positioning To Exploit Libya Stalemate
The United States and Western Europe’s residual military powers have undertaken in Libya another war of choice. Russia ushered them into it by not vetoing the UN Security Council’s resolution
Kazakhstan’s Presidency Initiates Discussion On Political Reforms
Reelected on April 3 (“A close-up view of Kazakhstan’s presidential election,” EDM, April 4), President Nursultan Nazarbayev intends to oversee a cautious transition to political and institutional pluralism in Kazakhstan
Croatian Government Reverses Move Against MOL, But Problems Persist
The Croatian government has reversed a move that would have jeopardized its goal to complete accession negotiations with the European Union this year. A government meeting on April 2 was
Croatia Hesitates Between EU and Russia on Energy Policy
Croatia hopes to complete accession negotiations with the European Union during the course of this year. However, the government would put its own EU accession goals at risk if it
Tiraspol’s Tail Wagging Moscow’s Dog, Blocks Negotiations on Transnistria
Expectations raised by Russia’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Sergei Lavrov, about re-starting negotiations to resolve the Transnistria conflict, have shattered on both counts: process and substance. Transnistria’s Moscow-installed authorities have defiantly
Secular And Islamist Opposition Parties In Azerbaijan Plan Further Actions
Watching the serial outbreaks of unrest in Arab countries, Azerbaijan’s radical opposition parties see a possible model for political action in their own country. On the secular side, these groups
“Day of Wrath” Fails In Azerbaijan
In the oversimplifying view of some Western commentators, the ongoing unrest in the “Muslim world” could or should not fail to grip Azerbaijan. On April 2 the veteran protest parties,
A Close-Up View of Kazakhstan’s Presidential Election
An independent group of election observers released in Astana today its assessment of Kazakhstan’s April 3 presidential election. Comprised mostly of political and economic analysts from Washington think-tanks (including the
Moscow Signals Interest In Berlin Initiative On Transnistria
On March 29 in Moscow, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held talks with his Moldovan counterpart, Iurie Leanca, on resuming and advancing a resolution of the Transnistria conflict (Moldpres, March 30;
Georgia Opposition Groups And The Arab Unrest
Turmoil in the Arab world has elicited contrasting responses from the two sides of Georgia’s political opposition. Extra-parliamentary radical groups (themselves of varied colors) seem inspired to start yet another
Ukraine Set To Take Over Transneft Oil Product Pipeline
On March 25, the Rivne oblast’s economic court ruled that the state of Ukraine, not Russia’s Transneft, is the rightful owner of the “Samara [Russia] – West” oil product pipeline’s
Odessa-Brody Pipeline Operating On Azerbaijani Oil
Oil delivered by Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) is moving through Ukraine’s Odessa-Brody pipeline at the moment, a portion of it heading for Belarus (BELTA, March 24). SOCAR expects to
Clan Putin Redistributing Stakes In New Yamal Project
With Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s protection, the Novatek Company seems set to acquire full ownership (or at least the stock options for full ownership) in Yamal LNG, Putin’s new pet
Putin Persists With LNG-Zing the South Stream Project
On March 21, at his Novo Ogaryovo residence, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin witnessed the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to negotiate German Wintershall’s accession to Gazprom’s South
Moscow Backs Surgut’s Push in Hungary
Co-chairing a session of the Russian-Hungarian Intergovernmental Economic Cooperation Commission in Moscow, Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov asked Hungary to eliminate “subjective” obstacles to Russian investments there (MTI, March 21).
Nabucco Project Adds Options For Gas Producers And Consumers
The Nabucco pipeline consortium is planning an expanded version of this project, within the framework of the EU-backed Southern Gas Corridor to Europe. The added elements include, as distinct possibilities:
Russian Energy Projects in the Black Sea Reach End of an Era
Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s, March 16-17 Russia visit capped a four-week period of spectacular changes to Russian energy transit projects, in the Black Sea and beyond. During these
Russian Hard Bargaining Delays Contract On French Mistral Warships
Contract negotiations on the French Mistral-class warship sale to Russia are moving into the endgame. The scenario envisages building two ships in France for sale to Russia, and selling licenses
Azerbaijan Clarifies View of Baku-Ankara-Yerevan Normalization Process
Interviewed by Turkish media after concluding a visit to Ankara (Hurriyet Daily News & Economic Review, March 14; CNN Turk, March 16), Azerbaijan’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Araz Azimov, has clarified
Vice-President Joe Biden Shows US Flag in Moldova (Part Two)
The United States has taken a back seat to the European Union regarding Moldova since the final years of the Bush administration. This stance became inevitable due to US over
Vice-President Biden’s Visit Can Reanimate US-Moldova Relations (Part One)
US Vice-President, Joseph Biden, paid a seven-hour flag-showing visit to Chisinau on March 11, on his return trip from Moscow to Washington. With this, Biden became the highest-ranking US official
Putin Looks For LNG Exit From South Stream
On March 9, the Russian government’s official websites published a transcript of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s and Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko’s “working meeting,” held that day in Putin’s office. Putin
The Geneva Process: A Balance Sheet Since The Russia-Georgia War (Part Two)
Two and a half years into the armistice and fifteen rounds into the Geneva implementation talks (“Georgia & The Geneva Process: A Balance Sheet Since The 2008 War,” EDM, March
Frozen Conflict Paradigm Persists in the Geneva Process (Part One)
In October 2008, two months after Russia’s invasion of Georgia, a diplomatic process was launched in Geneva to implement the armistice agreements signed on August 12 and September 8 that
Turkmenistan Demonstrates Commitment To Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline
Turkmenistan is developing the environmental and legal cases for construction of a trans-Caspian gas pipeline to Azerbaijan, there to link up with the EU-backed Southern Gas Corridor to Europe. While
French Total On Yamal: a New Form of Corporate Agreement?
On March 2 at his Novo-Ogarevo residence, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin hosted the signing of a novel type of strategic partnership between Russian and West European energy companies, in
Gazprom Takes Over BP’s Joint Venture At Kovykta
On March 1, Russia’s Gazprom bought the license to develop the giant Kovykta gas field in eastern Siberia from BP’s joint venture in Russia, TNK-BP. Since 2003, the Kremlin had
Russian Government, European Commission Hold Tense Meeting On Energy Issues
The meeting of the European Commission and the Russian government on February 24 in Brussels featured the largest-ever format in the history of such meetings. Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin,
South Stream Project Contravenes EU’s Energy Market Legislation
On February 24 in Brussels, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin led a governmental delegation for talks with the European Commission on the full range of EU-Russia relations. The Russian delegation
Southern Gas Corridor Risks Loss Of Strategic Focus
“Achieving the objectives of the Southern Corridor,” in the European Commission’s phrase (EurActiv, February 19), implies commitment to its strategic purpose. This is to supply countries along the Nabucco project’s
Cost And Supply Issues Delay The Nabucco Project
The Nabucco pipeline consortium has discreetly postponed its final investment decision by another year, this time until early 2012, with construction to start in 2012 “at the earliest” (Dow Jones,
Gazprom-Austrian OMV Agreement: A Political Blow To Nabucco
After selling a large block of shares in Hungarian MOL to the Kremlin-connected Surgutneftegaz, Austrian OMV CEO Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer’s final gift to European energy security is an agreement with Gazprom
Russia Mothballs Trans-Balkan Oil Pipeline Project
On February 17, the stakeholders and supervisory board of the Russian-led Burgas-Alexandropolis oil pipeline project shelved the project in all but name. The host countries, Bulgaria and Greece, had (each
South Stream CEO Makes The Case For The Project
Launched in 2007, Gazprom’s South Stream project ran out of potential gas resources by 2009 (thanks primarily to Turkmenistan’s reorientation), and out of potential financing at the same time (due
Moscow, Tiraspol Raise Preconditions To Negotiations On Transnistria Conflict (Part Two)
Moscow and Tiraspol seem intent on stonewalling the negotiations on the Transnistria conflict with Moldova indefinitely, and are marshalling arguments to justify the obstruction. For the most part, Tiraspol is
Efforts Underway To Reanimate Negotiations On The Transnistria Conflict (Part One)
The establishment of the European Union’s External Action Service, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) chairmanship by Lithuania, and the electoral success of Moldova’s pro-European governing coalition,
Made In Germany For Russia’s Army
Germany is joining a scramble among West-European producers of military equipment for Russian orders. NATO and the United States are silent bystanders to this growing trend, which challenges the Alliance’s
LNG Projects In Latvia And Lithuania Can BE Mutually Compatible
Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia are each planning to build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) reception terminal with a re-gasification plant on their Baltic littorals at Swinoujscie, Klaipeda, and near Riga,
Gazprom Resists EU-Backed Reform of Lithuania’s Energy Sector
Lithuania seeks the European Union’s support for gas sector reform in line with EU law, against pressures from Gazprom. The Russian company enjoys a supplier’s monopoly in Lithuania and controls
Georgia Provides More Security Than it Consumes
Addressing the annual international security forum in Munich –the highest-level NATO event between the Alliance’s summits–Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili, had the temerity to talk strategy. His address stood out in
Gazprom’s Price Hike to Moldova Has Political Ramifications
The Russian government’s offer of cheap gas to Moldova, in return for military basing rights (“Cheap Gas for Basing Rights: Russia Offers Ukrainian-Type Deal to Moldova,” EDM, February 4) aims
Cheap Gas For Basing Rights: Russia Offers Ukrainian Type Deal to Moldova
Russia’s ambassador to Moldova, Valery Kuzmin, insinuated via Chisinau media on February 1 that Moscow can grant Moldova a price discount on Russian gas, as it granted one to Ukraine,
Priority High, Expectations Low: Lithuanian Chairmanship Tackles Protracted Conflicts in the OSCE
Lithuanian Foreign Minister and OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Audronius Azubalis, outlined the chairmanship’s priorities in the Permanent Council’s September 13 and subsequent meetings, as well as statements and introductory visits by his
Lithuania Assumes the Chairmanship of the OSCE
Chairing the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 2010, Kazakhstan showed that it is possible to bring a successful chairmanship to a failing organization. Prerequisites to a
Kazakhstan’s Presidential Referendum Scrapped, Pre-Term Election Initiated After Constitutional Verdict
On January 31, Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Council ruled against holding a national referendum that would have prolonged President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s term of office until 2020. Without objec