Executive Summary: Many analysts in the West have misunderstood the conflict in Ukraine, leading to the mishandling of aid to Ukraine.  Many Western analysts overlooked the historical myth-making that the Kremlin had been promoting for many years, which aimed to erase Ukrainian history and identity.... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian mercenary industry has transformed since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 with private military companies (PMCs) and other paramilitary formations taking on a more prominent role in Russia’s military operations. PMCs and other mercenary groups have become key players in... MORE

Executive Summary: Cossack education has increasingly focused on preparing Russian youth for war. New Cossack cadet corps are being developed in Crimea, expanding Russia’s foothold on the peninsula. Cultural events celebrating Cossack traditions to “inculcate a love of the motherland in young people” are becoming... MORE

Executive Summary:  The Kremlin’s tactics of increasing repression and exaggerating domestic support for the war resemble strategies used during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Stalin’s earlier repressions. The Kremlin attempted to use the coinciding of Navalny’s death with Russian successes at Avdiivka to undermine... MORE

Executive Summary: The first sign that Putin would be truly ready for peace negotiations would be discretely initiating contact through intelligence personnel, diplomats, and “useful idiots.” The West should have several signals in mind when considering Putin’s true intentions, as Kremlin messaging could be a... MORE

Executive Summary: Iran and Russia have steadily strengthened their bilateral cooperation over the past couple of years, primarily based on the destruction of common adversaries, a shared ideological alignment, and expanded military collaboration. Tehran and Moscow have intensified their arms trade and technical assistance on... MORE

Executive Summary: Alexei Navalny’s death may spur the West to take more decisive actions against Russia. The US House of Representatives may now be pressured to pass the $95 billion package for aid to Ukraine, and Western governments may consider seizing foreign-held Russian assets. Navalny’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian-occupied Crimea is now facing water shortages so severe that as many as 500,000 of the peninsula’s 2.5 million residents may soon be forced to try to flee despite Moscow’s claims to the contrary. Such outmigration undermines Russian control. It also creates difficulties... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate is gradually losing its position at home–and more rapidly in some post-Soviet states–due to its slavish support of Putin’s war in Ukraine. While Kyiv is about to ban its branch, Tallinn is demolishing a compromise... MORE

Executive Summary: Support for Russian presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin indicates readiness among Russians to oppose the war openly, reflecting discontent with both Putin and ongoing conflicts and motivating the Kremlin to regain support. The Kremlin has linked war benefits to everyday needs, portraying destruction as... MORE