Executive Summary: Kremlin officials are condemning the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as violations of international law while simultaneously committing violations of Ukrainian sovereignty. Moscow presents itself as a defender of sovereignty and global nuclear norms in its discourse toward Iran, yet it disregards... MORE

Executive Summary: Israel’s unexpected missile offensive on Iran on June 13 caught Moscow off guard, disrupting its assumptions about U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and raising suspicions of a concealed Western strategy to undercut Tehran’s military and nuclear ambitions. Moscow condemned Israel’s actions rhetorically but failed to... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgia is increasingly turning toward the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, marking a sharp shift away from its traditional Western allies. Economic ties with these countries have intensified, bringing increased investment, business activity, tourism, and even cultural... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has offered to mediate U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations, positioning itself as a helpful intermediary with clear interests in securing benefits from any potential agreement. Moscow’s involvement in Iran’s nuclear talks would enhance its influence in the nuclear weapons supply chain through proposals to... MORE

Executive Summary: Ongoing pressure by Nigerian security services and Sunni militants may be pushing the country’s small Shia population toward Iran. Nigeria’s Shia, who comprise some 1.3 percent of the total population, are likely to be influenced by Iran through members of the Lebanese diaspora... MORE

Executive Summary: Pakistan banned the Iran-backed Zainebiyoun Brigade on April 11, 2024, designating them as a terrorist group. The move is believed to be an effort to crack down on Iranian recruitment of disaffected Pakistani Shia, who are being used to fight in Iran’s proxy... MORE

Executive Summary: In mid-February, Türkiye and Turkmenistan signed an agreement facilitating the flow of natural gas through Iran, a step to enhance Türkiye’s energy security and diversify its supply. Iran’s technical issues in infrastructure and the increased chances of U.S. sanctions bring risks of supply... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the wide-ranging Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership on January 17 to boost bilateral relations for further progress in areas including opposition to NATO expansion, the North-South Corridor, and the 3+3 format. Moscow and... MORE

Executive Summary: Iran and Russia signed a new comprehensive strategic agreement on January 17, serving as a comprehensive framework to build closer ties and cooperate in what the two states refer to as a just and multipolar world order. The treaty highlights expanding trade routes,... MORE

Executive Summary: Since becoming the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin has made developing a north-south trade corridor a centerpiece of his geoeconomic and geopolitical program. This would counter the impact of east-west routes and align the global south against the West. He has now declared this... MORE