Executive Summary: Moscow recently carried out a counterterrorism operation against what it describes as Islamist radicals in Ingushetia—the smallest, poorest, and arguably most restive republic not only in the North Caucasus but also in the Russian Federation. The Kremlin took this step lest violence in... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow seeks to boost its struggling economy through increased development of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) as a real competitor to the Suez Canal and the Bosphorus Strait. Moscow wants the INSTC to open pathways to new markets that circumvent Western monitoring... MORE

Executive Summary:  Armenia has announced it is suspending cooperation with the Moscow-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a signal that Yerevan may soon reduce or even end other forms of cooperation with Russia. The almost universal assumption that Armenia, because of its geographic location and... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is scheduled to hold presidential elections from March 15 to 17, which will predictably result in the reelection of President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin is doing everything in its power to prevent opposition figures from gaining traction in presidential elections, including preventing... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin’s war strategy relies on the ideas that Russian society is united behind the war and that Western unity is crumbling, neither of which is strong enough to sustain the war effort indefinitely. Putin seeks to maintain public support for the war... MORE

Executive Summary: Many analysts in the West have misunderstood the conflict in Ukraine, leading to the mishandling of aid to Ukraine.  Many Western analysts overlooked the historical myth-making that the Kremlin had been promoting for many years, which aimed to erase Ukrainian history and identity.... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian military-industrial complex has seen an increase in the output of military equipment in recent months despite a general downward trend in the country’s industrial sector. The increased productivity is in part due to the work of scientific institutions and universities that... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian mercenary industry has transformed since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 with private military companies (PMCs) and other paramilitary formations taking on a more prominent role in Russia’s military operations. PMCs and other mercenary groups have become key players in... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has long exploited its influence in Transnistria and Gagauzia to pressure Moldova not to turn away from Russia and join Western institutions such as the European Union. The Kremlin is once again using these restive Moldovan regions by raising the specter that... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian population’s interest in the war against Ukraine has significantly declined over the past two years, confirming some sociologists’ conclusion that the initial considerable pro-war sentiment was more about adapting to a new “normal” than genuine public support. Russian society has experienced... MORE