Executive Summary: Moscow is facing greater resistance to its military draft in the North Caucasus because of increasing quotas and the disproportionate impact of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine on the region. The Russian government is applying more repressive pressure on North Caucasians... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is unwittingly contributing to the rise of Islamism in Dagestan by failing to address social and economic problems and by handing over the region to siloviki who view all protest there as Islamist. The problems in Dagestan and elsewhere in the North... MORE

Executive Summary: Ramzan Kadyrov declared this week that he wants to retire from his position as head of the Chechen Republic but acknowledged that only Russian President Vladimir Putin could release him. Putin agreed to meet with him and appears to have turned down his... MORE

Executive Summary: Ingushetia, a republic in Russia’s North Caucasus, is being pacified and kept dependent on Moscow as intentional Kremlin policies, rather than policy failures or Ingush shortcomings, are causing high unemployment.   Moscow has often used Ingushetia to test out policies and if it concludes... MORE

Executive Summary: Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has made another move to subordinate Ingushetia (a neighboring republic within the Russian Federation) by organizing talks intended to create a Chechen-controlled muftiate in Ingushetia.  Kadyrov’s efforts to gain leverage over Ingushetia may be initially successful because of the... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukrainian parliament has voted to recognize Russian actions against the Circassians in the 19th century as an act of genocide—a move Circassians and human rights activists hope will lead other countries to follow. Moscow is working to blunt the impact of Ukraine’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has used various measures short of a new mobilization to fill the ranks of its dwindling army in Ukraine and appears ready to force protesters into the army and send them to fight. In Dagestan, a republic that has often been bellwether... MORE

Executive Summary: Since Russian President Vladimir Putin seized Crimea in 2014 and even more since he launched his expanded invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Kyiv has sought to develop ties with non-Russian groups in Russia on the principle that “the enemy of my enemy is... MORE

Executive Summary: A new, more radical, and more deadly threat to Russian control in the North Caucasus is emerging. The new movement is based on Islamist ideas rather than concerns about ethnic hierarchies or anger about corruption and situated primarily in Dagestan rather than Chechnya.... MORE

Executive Summary: The deadly Islamist violence against Christian and Jewish centers in two Dagestani cities is the latest in a string of such actions involving Dagestanis and a continuation of the tectonic shifts there that cast doubt on Moscow’s control. These developments are rooted in... MORE