Regional Rivalries Could Jeopardize TAPI Pipeline Ambitions

Regional Rivalries Could Jeopardize TAPI Pipeline Ambitions

Executive Summary:

• On August 10, Turkmenistan and Taliban-led Afghanistan signed a memorandum of understanding on the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) pipeline gas purchases, while on August 27, Afghan Herat Province Governor Sheikh Maulana Islam Jar said the province’s section could be completed within two months.
• Despite the progress, renewed Pakistan–Afghanistan tensions and India’s concerns over dependence on Pakistan for transit raise doubts about extending TAPI beyond Afghanistan to its intended South Asian markets.
• Originally envisioned as a vehicle for regional cooperation and stability, TAPI could instead become a source of strategic leverage among Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India if regional tensions escalate.

On August 10, Turkmen Parliament Chairman Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov visited Afghanistan, where he discussed progress on the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI)  pipeline with Afghan Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar Akhund in a meeting held in Herat. On August 27, Afghan Herat Province Governor Sheikh Maulana Islam Jar stated that work on the local section of the TAPI gas pipeline project in Herat would be completed within two months and that the project could be commissioned soon afterward (Pajhwok, August 27). The two sides discussed progress on the 153-kilometer (95-mile) Serhetabat–Herat section of the pipeline, which stretches from the Turkmen border at Serhetabat to the Afghan province of Herat (Turkmenistan: Golden Age, August 11). During the visit, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan also signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on gas purchases under the TAPI project. Under the MoU, the two sides will determine gas prices, demand levels, and distribution arrangements (Government of Afghanistan , August 10). The gas-purchase MoU was signed between Turkmenistan’s state-owned Turkmengaz and Afghanistan’s state-owned Afghan Gas, establishing the main terms for future gas supplies. Abdul Ghani Baradar asked Ashgabat to support the development of a gas distribution network in Herat and to create local employment through the project (AnewZ TV, August 11).

Uncertainty remains over the extension of TAPI into Pakistan and India, the project’s two largest South Asian markets, despite the recent progress between Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. A gas deal between Ashgabat and Kabul could make Afghanistan the first TAPI customer to receive Turkmen gas. The much-delayed TAPI pipeline project, if completed, would connect Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh gas field, one of the world’s largest, with energy-hungry markets in Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan (News.az, September 12, 2024; The Times of Central Asia, August 28).

Envisaged in the early 1990s, the TAPI pipeline has been delayed for decades, primarily because of security concerns surrounding its route through Afghanistan and, more recently, broader regional tensions. The project involves construction of a 1,800-kilometer (1,118-mile) pipeline running from the Galkynysh gas field in Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and Pakistan to Fazilka, India, near the Pakistan–India border, with a planned capacity to transport 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas annually (Business Turkmenistan, August 23, 2022; South Asian Voices, November 6, 2024). 

In 2014, the estimated cost of the pipeline was $10 billion. The project was launched in 2018, but the construction stalled amid security risks in Afghanistan (Pakistan Today, January 18, 2022). After the Taliban returned to power in 2021, its administration expressed renewed interest in reviving the project. In 2022, the Taliban government dedicated 30,000 troops to security coverage in a move to assure security of the pipeline traversing Afghan territory. In September 2024, work on the Serhetabat–Herat section officially resumed (Pakistan Today, January 18, 2022; Turkmen Portal, September 11, 2024).

A fully operational TAPI pipeline will have an estimated capacity of 14 bcm of gas supply annually to Pakistan and India each, with a smaller allocation of 5 bcm to Afghanistan. Turkmenistan, which follows a strategy of diversifying gas exports, is willing to supply gas to Afghanistan even as uncertainty persists over Pakistan’s and India’s participation in the project. By supplying gas to Afghanistan through the TAPI pipeline, Turkmenistan wants not only to demonstrate the viability of this transnational project but also to attract additional demand from South Asian markets. Ashgabat sees Afghanistan as another export market, even even if initial TAPI sales remain limited (The Times of Central Asia, August 28).

A gas-supply deal through the TAPI pipeline between Turkmenistan and Afghanistan is yet to be concluded, despite periodic claims by Turkmen and Afghan officials that work is progressing rapidly. The pace of work on the Serhetabat–Herat section remains limited. Gas pricing, supply volumes, and other key commercial terms have yet to be finalized between the two sides for the first section of the TAPI pipeline (Eurasianet, August 12). Abdul Ghani Baradar called for an agreement on gas pricing under the TAPI project. “A long-term agreement should be concluded, contain simplified conditions and include a flexible mechanism for reviewing the agreement,” said an Afghan government statement (Trend News Agency, August 11).

Beyond Afghanistan, security remains a major obstacle to transporting Turkmen gas to Pakistan and India. Although the Taliban government has provided security guarantees for the pipeline’s passage through Afghanistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan are currently engaged in heightened tensions over cross-border militancy. A surge in terrorist attacks by Afghanistan-based militants against Pakistan has triggered repeated clashes along the Pakistan–Afghanistan border, prompting Islamabad to close its border with Afghanistan in October 2025. Relations between Pakistan and India are also deeply adversarial and deteriorated further following a military clash in May 2025. Given the regional security environment, extending TAPI from Afghanistan into Pakistan and then India faces significant security and geopolitical obstacles (The Times of Central Asia, October 23, 2025). New Delhi is also wary of depending on Pakistan for gas supplies delivered through TAPI, as such dependence could give Islamabad leverage during a future bilateral crisis. India fears that Pakistan could disrupt gas supplies during a conflict (The Economic Times, September 17, 2024).

The TAPI pipeline project was envisaged as a peace initiative for regional cooperation and stability. It could, however, be used as a weapon by Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India to settle scores against each other should hostilities break out in the region.