Skip to content
Account Donate
U.S. President Trump And Russian President Putin Meet On War In Ukraine At U.S. Air Base In Alaska

Strategic Snapshot: Moscow’s Need for Leverage in Peace Talks

Publication Eurasia Daily Monitor Russia

11.26.2025

Download

Top Stories

Strategic Snapshot: Moscow’s Need for Leverage in Peace Talks

Russia is positioning itself as the key power broker in the emerging peace framework for its war against Ukraine. The Kremlin portrays the U.S.-drafted plan as a “basis for settlement” while signaling that rejection could trigger further escalation. Moscow’s demands remain consistent: recognition of occupied territories, military restrictions on Ukraine, and guarantees against North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expansion. These conditions reflect Russia’s long-standing strategy of converting battlefield leverage into diplomatic concessions, even as its ability to sustain the war erodes.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s negotiation tactics follow a familiar pattern over time. The Kremlin uses temporary ceasefires and talks to stall Western military actions and create opportunities for Moscow. When talks falter, Moscow escalates threats. Jamestown analysis underscores that these maneuvers are less about compromise and more about projecting strength amid declining domestic credibility.

On the military front, Russian nuclear signaling remains central to Moscow’s projection of international status and strength, such as testing the Burevestnik and Poseidon systems. Russia actively tests NATO readiness and resolve with the recent drone incursions into Poland and provocations on Svalbard. The scaled-down Zapad-2025 drills, however, were designed to mask manpower shortages inside Russia.

Domestically, the Kremlin is vulnerable and a peace plan is a necessity for Moscow. Wage arrears have surged, regional subsidies for recruits are being cut, and governors increasingly defy Kremlin directives. Recruitment shortfalls force reliance on reservists and coercive mobilization, while veterans fuel crime and radical nationalist movements. Elite circles show signs of fracture, with some insiders quietly exploring peace options to safeguard economic interests.

Jamestown analysis highlights a widening gap between Putin’s ambitions and Russia’s capacity to sustain them. The delusion of grandeur which Moscow presents is its biggest vulnerability in any peace negotiations.

(Source: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Russia’s Negotiations Tactics

  • Moscow’s approach to peace negotiations is rooted in leverage, not goodwill. Moscow escalates threats when talks falter and pivots its positions to project strength, particularly before major diplomatic events.
  • Russia uses ceasefire windows and talks as leverage to stall Western military actions while maintaining operational flexibility.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy toward negotiations blends war-making with deal-making. He regularly aims to secure concessions.

Selected Jamestown Analysis:

(Source: President of Russia)

Russian War Tactics

  • Moscow faces economic strain and limited battlefield gains. It reallocates resources by cutting military spending while boosting state media funding in order to maintain a positive narrative and maintain domestic support.
  • Nuclear signaling remains central to Putin’s long-war strategy. Moscow conducts high-profile tests of systems such as Burevestnik and Poseidon and simulates retaliatory strikes to pressure the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and influence arms control talks.
  • Drone incursions into Poland, airspace violations, and Svalbard provocations test NATO’s readiness without triggering escalation.

Selected Jamestown Analysis:

(Source: Parliament of Chechnya Press Service)

Consequences of Russia’s War at Home

  • Economic stress is deepening across Russia’s regions as a result of Moscow’s war against Ukraine. Wage arrears have quadrupled since 2022, sparking strikes even in defense-related industries. Regional governments are quietly cutting recruitment subsidies, while governors increasingly ignore Kremlin directives as Moscow prioritizes war spending over local needs.
  • Recruitment and social cohesion are under severe strain. Financial incentives for contract soldiers are losing effectiveness, forcing Moscow to legalize reservist deployment and rely on youth indoctrination programs. Non-Russians and immigrants are arming themselves amid rising ethnic tensions, while veterans returning from Ukraine fuel crime and radical nationalist movements/
  • Pro-Kremlin analysts admit Russia’s war strategy is failing economically and militarily, while polling shows more Russians oppose the war than official figures suggest. Some elites who are motivated by personal security and economic survival are exploring peace options apart from the Kremlin.

Selected Jamestown Analysis:

Related Articles

Russians Protesting Mounting Problems, but Not Yet Against Putin

12.22.2025 Paul Goble

Politics & Society

Russia Transitions to Nuclear Intimidation

12.18.2025 Arseny Sivitsky

Military & Security

Russia Overextends on Arctic Nuclear Icebreaker Goals

12.18.2025 Anna J. Davis

Economics & Energy
Jamestown
Powered by  GDPR Cookie Compliance
Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies so that we can provide you with the best user experience possible. Cookie information is stored in your browser and performs functions such as recognising you when you return to our website and helping our team to understand which sections of the website you find most interesting and useful.