Executive Summary: New Economic and Technology Development Zones (ETDZs) in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) are focused on pockets of the Han population, which will exacerbate tensions within the region. The Tibetan economy is already largely under Han control (except for in the agriculture and... MORE

Executive Summary: As currently planned, Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal will divert water from the Amu Darya river away from Central Asian countries, including those usually referred to as “water surplus” states, as well as China and Russia. Kabul does not participate in any water-sharing accord... MORE

Executive Summary: Over the past two years, Ukraine has weathered Russian strikes on critical targets, and the intensity of Russian missile and air strikes could soon lead to the exhaustion of Ukraine’s missile stocks. As Ukraine’s stocks have dwindled, the effectiveness of air defense has... MORE

Executive Summary: PRC investments and cooperation in the South Pacific enhance its military reach and ability to monitor strategic regions. This engagement serves not only economic interests but also significant geopolitical and security purposes, particularly in nations along key maritime and aerial routes. There is... MORE

Executive Summary: The ban on Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons to strike targets in Russia significantly disrupts the country’s defense capabilities. Preemptive strikes on Russian assembly areas and air bases would be easier and more cost-effective than countering troops and bombers along the contact line.... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian forces have enjoyed a string of successes in targeting energy facilities and military installations within Russia and the occupied territories. Kyiv’s “de-naftification” of Russia reflects Ukraine’s growing ability to bring the war home to Moscow, further enflaming societal discontent with Putin’s Kremlin.... MORE

Executive Summary Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s “Crossroads for Peace” initiative is struggling to gain any momentum largely due to the lack of direct consultations with Baku and Ankara. Azerbaijan and Türkiye are moving ahead with work on opening the Zangezur Corridor and trans-Iranian Aras... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian-occupied Crimea is now facing water shortages so severe that as many as 500,000 of the peninsula’s 2.5 million residents may soon be forced to try to flee despite Moscow’s claims to the contrary. Such outmigration undermines Russian control. It also creates difficulties... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is looking to South Asia as a source of new immigrants to compensate for the demographic decline of the Russian population and declining numbers of migrant workers from Central Asia. Such a policy faces enormous obstacles given both the negative attitudes of... MORE

Executive Summary: The PRC’s claims over Bhutanese territory have expanded over the years, including recent large-scale construction in disputed valleys, which contradicts the 1998 agreement to maintain the status quo, challenging Bhutanese sovereignty and raising strategic concerns for India. The PRC is pushing to resolve... MORE