Ukrainian Ideas of Victory Diversify and Expand as Russia’s War Drags On

Ukrainian Ideas of Victory Diversify and Expand as Russia’s War Drags On

This article is the second in a series based on data collected from 16 interviews conducted with civic, humanitarian, and political experts in Kyiv, Ukraine, from April 13–24, 2026. The goal of the project was to obtain an accurate, up-to-date snapshot of the numerous realities that comprise modern-day Ukraine. This piece examines what victory means for Ukrainians four and a half years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of their country. 

Individual participant views do not necessarily reflect the opinions of their respective organizations. 

Executive Summary:

• Years of loss and military deadlock have broadened Ukrainians’ understanding of victory beyond the original goal of a military success that restores Ukraine’s legal 1991 borders. 
• Interviewees described three main visions of a victorious future: Ukraine leveraging military success to strengthen its negotiating position; the successful postwar construction of a fairer, more prosperous, and more sovereign country; and the restoration of an ordinary life. 
• After four and a half years of full-scale war, its end may not mean victory at all. Multiple interviewees described this future moment as instead being a “relief.” Ultimate victory may happen years after the full-scale war ends, once Ukraine realizes its main long-term objectives through nonmilitary means. 

The concept of “victory” has been Ukraine’s north star through the difficult years of Russia’s full-scale invasion. It is the reason why Ukrainians continue to volunteer for the armed forces; civilians regularly donate their hard-earned hryvnia to military units despite widespread financial hardship; business owners maintain regular opening hours even after an overnight attack blows their windows out; and, generally, why Ukrainians insist on living “normal” lives as best they can in abnormal circumstances (Ukrainska Pravda, March 13, 2024; Kyiv Independent, May 24). 

A nationwide survey conducted by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) in November 2023 suggests that a majority of Ukrainians in the opening years of the war defined victory as the restoration of Ukraine’s pre-2022, or even pre-2014, borders via a military breakthrough (NDI, November 2023). [1] From the blunting of initial Russian advances to the dramatic autumn counterattacks in 2022 that liberated large swathes of occupied territory, Ukrainians had reason to believe that the war would end quickly on the back of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) (Kyiv Independent, September 13, 2022). 

Russia’s war against Ukraine has intensified and deadlocked since these early war successes. Its costs have mounted. According to a contemporary survey conducted by NDI in March 2026, 65 percent of Ukrainians have suffered a deterioration of both mental and physical health. Sixty-four percent have experienced an income reduction, and 50 percent are separated from family members in some way. Eighty-two percent have experienced the loss of a friend or acquaintance, and 33 percent the loss of a family member (NDI, March 2026). With no end in sight, tragedies and the cost of war continue to compound. 

“Victory” is an abstract term. In the context of Ukraine, it is intensely personal and emotional. When I visited Kyiv in April, one goal of mine was to understand how years of hardship and loss have broadened the Ukrainian idea of “victory” from the country’s original, unifying definition of military triumph. As such, I decided to conclude each interview by asking “what does victory mean to you?”

The question elicited the highest variety of answers out of the 30 that I asked across interview groups. Some participants paused for 15 to 20 seconds to work out their answers. It became clear from their responses that the concept of military victory still exists. They also suggest that the war’s mounting costs have forced Ukrainians to wrestle with a fundamental question: what outcome is worthy of those Ukrainians who sacrificed their lives for their country? To some interviewees, such an outcome means a sovereign Ukraine that is strengthened through wartime lessons. For others, it is the opportunity to resume ordinary life in peace. As the war continues, the idea of a victorious future is diversifying, which Ukraine will have to reckon with during its postwar reconstruction. 

Victory as Military Success

While the idea of military victory persists, it does so on a wider spectrum than in the initial phases of the war. One staff member at the Anti-Corruption Center Mezha (Антикорупційний центр Межа, Antykoruptsiynyy tsentr mezha), a Kyiv-based nonprofit, described a successful freezing of the frontline as a best-case scenario given Ukraine’s current military capabilities and level of international support (Author’s Interview with Mezha Staff Members, April 17). Retired Major General and former Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense Volodymyr Havrylov described “victory” as beating back Russian forces until Moscow understands that it “cannot do anything with Ukraine,” and thus forcing them to view Ukraine as an equal in future negotiations (Author’s Interview with Volodymyr Havrylov, April 15). Stuart Heggie, an Australian volunteer who has spent time near frontline areas in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts since 2022, still believes that the AFU can win back large portions of the Donbas and put pressure on Crimea to force Moscow into a deal that favors Kyiv (Author’s Interview with Stuart Heggie, April 16). 

On the other side of the military victory spectrum, interviewees discussed dramatic global changes brought about through Ukrainian military success. The president of a heavy bomber drone company explained victory as the downfall and breakdown of the Russian Federation as we know it, brought about through continuous wartime pressure (Author’s Interview with Anonymous Interviewee, April 15). Robert Potter, a security expert now based in Kyiv, said the war should “end the concept of authoritarianism as a great power method of government” in both the People’s Republic of China and Russia (Author’s Interview with Robert Potter, April 22). To these respondents, only a fundamental geopolitical shift can eradicate the conditions that incentivized Russia to invade Ukraine in the first place. It offers the best chance at lasting security and is therefore the only meaningful way to end the full-scale invasion.

Victory as Ukrainian Sovereignty 

The majority of interviewees chose to focus their answers on a future in which Ukraine harnesses its wartime experience to create a stronger, fairer, and more prosperous country. A thriving democracy, viewed as a main differentiator from Russia—and as something Ukrainians are routinely unhappy with—remained a constant throughout interviewee responses. [2] Interviewees expect postwar Ukraine to be more democratic, prosperous, and resilient, all within a sovereign territory that is defined by Ukraine’s unique culture and identity. Olga Lymar, the executive director at the Kyiv-based non-governmental organization (NGO) Reanimation Package of Reforms Coalition,  said that a victorious Ukraine would be able to pursue its own domestic and international policies without external interference (Author’s Interview with Olga Lymar, April 17). 

This vision of the future hinges on a newfound confidence in Ukraine’s “selfhood” that has emerged during the full-scale war. According to Svitlana Iukhymovych, who has spent almost a decade in political and civic leadership roles at NDI Ukraine and elsewhere, some Ukrainians prior to 2022 gravitated toward either a Western or Russian version of identity, a dynamic that reflects the split of Ukrainian political elites that resulted in the Revolution of Dignity. Since 2022, however, Ukrainians have seen their armed forces effectively battle back against a much larger foe while simultaneously maintaining “cultural diplomacy, political diplomacy,” and the ability “to function as a state,” despite attacks against civilian targets across the country (Author’s Interview with Svitlana Iukhymovych, April 14). Interview responses suggest that Russia’s war has united Ukrainians around the recognition of astounding successes that they can achieve together as a country. 

Ukrainian victory means taking on regional and global leadership roles with this confidence. Several participants described the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) accession as no longer essential to Ukraine’s security architecture. [3] As the European country most tested in large-scale conventional warfare, they now expect NATO will “want to enter Ukraine” after the war, as opposed to before, when “Ukraine wanted to enter NATO” (Author’s Interview with Olga Lymar, April 17). Ukraine’s global standing has already increased outside of NATO through drone technology exports during the war with Iran (see EDM, April 1; Ukrinform, April 19). Interviewees expect that Ukraine’s unique wartime experience will continue to allow the country to be an integral player on the world stage, elevating its global status not only as a defense leader, but financially and culturally, too (Author’s Interview with Members of Kyiv-Based NGO Active Community (Aктивна громада, Aktyvna hromada), April 20). 

Victory as the Resumption of Normal Life 

Finally, a third group of respondents opted not to discuss victory in the military or political realm. Instead, they talked about the raw impact that the war has had on their own lives. One interviewee from Poltava who moved to Kyiv for work in the international development sector confessed that he did not hear the term “victory… in the last probably half a year.” It is hard to think about victory when you are freezing and constantly sick while enduring a Ukrainian winter without heating, when you lose friends in overnight ballistic missile attacks, and when you are separated from close family members for over four years. To him, victory means the end of killing and the resumption of normal life, in which people can once again pursue their own goals and dreams (Author’s Interview with Anonymous Interviewee, April 16). As the human and material costs of this war continue to mount, more people may focus on this line of thinking.

While others did not describe their personal experiences of the full-scale war in such detail, the emphasis on the irreversible nature of the price already paid remained constant throughout the interviews. Any future victory that Ukraine achieves “will not bring back the dead,” as one founder of a Ukraine-based humanitarian NGO said (Author’s Interview with Anonymous Interviewee, April 23). There is a clear “before” and “after,” separated by February 24, 2022. No political or military success can return the lives that people led prior to the full-scale invasion. Multiple interviewees suggested that what Ukraine can hope for is an opportunity to rebuild, on both a personal and societal level, in peace and from a position of strength. 

Conclusion

The complexity of this question is encapsulated in my experience asking it of the first two people I interviewed. The first interviewee looked me in the eyes and said “for humanity, true victory is if this had not happened at all” (Author’s Interview with Vladyslav Shelokov, president of Kyiv-Based NGO Angels for Ukraine, April 14). Two hours later, my second interviewee contended that Ukraine had already won, as the country has preserved its sovereignty, and its people can still go to work, meet with friends, speak Ukrainian, and sit in nice restaurants (Author’s Interview with Maryna Karlevits, former foreign policy advisor to Ukrainian Member of Parliament Oleksii Goncharenko, April 14). 

The restoration of Ukraine’s legal 1991 borders remains the ultimate objective for both the country and its people. As the war drags on without a decisive breakthrough, there is a growing recognition that this may not be achieved soon. Most respondents therefore defined victory not as an alternative to territorial liberation, but instead as a vision of the future that gives Ukrainians the motivation and courage to endure daily wartime hardships. Military success, strong democracy, greater international influence, and an end to wartime trauma and grief all center on the idea of a strong, sovereign postwar Ukraine that can effectively work toward all of its goals, including full reclamation of occupied territory. Ukraine’s struggle will thus continue after the full-scale war ends. As one interviewee said, “If not now, then in 10 years. If not in 10 years, then in 100 years, when we have the resources” (Author’s Interview with Svitlana Iukhymovych, April 14). 

Two interviewees suggested a useful barometer for knowing when Ukraine has achieved victory: when celebrations begin in the street. Public celebrations do not seem likely when the guns fall silent. The current situation is, above all else, a generational tragedy. When the full-scale war ends, according to some respondents, it will be a relief, not necessarily a victory (Author’s Interview with Mezha Staff Members, April 17). Victory, with all its accompanying celebrations, will come later. 

Notes:

[1] According to NDI, as of late November 2023, 53 percent of Ukrainians thought of a peace deal that only regained Ukraine’s 2022 borders as “unacceptable.” Seventy-two percent rejected a frozen frontline in exchange for peace (NDI, November 2023). 

[2] Many people in Ukraine remain frustrated with Ukrainian democracy. Corruption remains a top-three concern, even during wartime, and trust in multiple government organs has plummeted after record-high approval ratings in 2022 and 2023 (NDI, March 2026). 

[3] This opinion corresponds with broader public opinion. According to the NDI survey, the percentage of Ukrainians wanting NATO accession has dropped from 89 percent in 2023 to 48 percent in 2026. Only 24 percent expect that Ukraine will join NATO (NDI, March 2026).