Vladimir Socor

Vladimir Socor is a Senior Fellow of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation and its flagship publication, Eurasia Daily Monitor (1995 to date), where he writes analytical articles on a daily basis. An internationally recognized expert on the former Soviet-ruled countries in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia, he covers Russian and Western policies, focusing on energy, regional security issues, Russian foreign affairs, secessionist conflicts, and NATO policies and programs. Mr. Socor is a frequent speaker at U.S. and European policy conferences and think-tank institutions; as well as a regular guest lecturer at the NATO Defense College and at Harvard University’s National Security Program’s Black Sea Program. He is also a frequent contributor to edited volumes. Mr. Socor was previously an analyst with the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Research Institute (1983-1994). He is a Romanian-born citizen of the United States based in Munich, Germany.

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    Articles by Vladimir Socor

    Putin Lights a Gagauz Fuse Under Moldova (Part Two)

    (Part One) Executive Summary: Russia can use the Gagauz autonomy more effectively than Transnistria to destabilize Moldova. The Kremlin is interested in Gagauzia remaining part of Moldova rather than seceding

    Putin Lights a Gagauz Fuse Under Moldova (Part One)

    Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with the Gagauz autonomy leader, Yevgenia Gutsul, shows Moscow advancing from covert to overt interference in Moldova’s politics. Emboldening Gagauz leaders to confront

    OSCE in Russia’s Tight Grip at Year-End Meeting

    Russia has practically turned the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) into a hostage, ruthlessly instrumentalizing the organization’s consensus rules. The OSCE’s year-end, ministerial-level meeting, held in Skopje

    Russia Playing Cat-and-Mouse With OSCE (Part Two)

    Russia forced what it calls “the collective West” into significant concessions for this year’s Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) annual meeting of foreign ministers. Using its statutory

    Peace Unattainable Without Victory in Ukraine

    The West’s inadequate arming of Ukraine predetermined costly failures for Kyiv’s counteroffensive. The effort to dislodge Russian forces from their entrenched positions in southeastern Ukraine has become a difficult endeavor

    Ukraine Will Not Hold Elections During Wartime

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ended a debate that he himself had helped spark. Zelenskyy told the nation on November 6 that Ukraine cannot hold elections while fighting a war

    The OSCE in Agony (Part Four)

    Click here to read Part One, Part Two and Part Three. Moldova is the last remaining target of Russia’s “special status” playbook, in this case in Transnistria. This is also the

    The OSCE in Agony (Part Three)

    Click here to read Part One and Part Two. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has lost relevance and even access to the conflict-resolution process between Armenia

    The OSCE in Agony (Part Two)

    Read Part One here. This year’s Polish chairmanship barred Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov from entering Poland for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) year-end ministerial meeting.

    The OSCE in Agony (Part One)

    Russia’s devastating invasion of Ukraine this year is not, for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), a dramatic watershed or existential crossroads as it has been made

    Ukraine Poised to Liberate Western Kherson

    On November 9, in a televised conference, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin, announced another major Russian setback (TASS, November

    Pro-Russia Parties Resurgent in Moldova (Part Two)

    *To read Part One, please click here. Moldova’s Russophile parties aim to force snap parliamentary and presidential elections this year, capitalizing on an unprecedented economic crisis to topple the pro-Western

    Russia’s Invasion Manifesto to Ukraine

    Traditionally, imperial powers sending their armies into foreign countries for purposes of conquest issued explanatory manifestoes to the invaded peoples and to their own. The Kremlin issued the equivalent of

    Kremlin Announces War Aims Against Ukraine

    At 6 AM Moscow time, on February 24, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin announced in a televised address the start of a “special military operation” by Russian forces against Ukraine. At

    Ukraine in Play After Biden-Putin Discussion

    Presidents Joseph Biden of the United States and Vladimir Putin of Russia have agreed, in their December 7 video-dialogue (see EDM, December 8), to create working groups that would address

    Ukraine Looms Large in Biden-Putin Dialogue

    Presidents Joseph Biden of the United States and Vladimir Putin of Russia held a one-on-one video-conference, on December 7—their fifth direct dialogue (three by telephone, one in person, one by

    Zelenskyy Seeks a Summit With Putin Again

    Following United States President Joseph Biden’s example, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also blinked to the Kremlin. The US president solicited a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on April

    ‘Nothing About Us Without Us’: Normandy Without Ukraine?

    Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron conferred, on March 30, by video-conference on multiple international issues, including the intensification of the “internal conflict

    Moscow Declares Pause in Normandy Negotiations on Ukraine

    Russia’s presidential envoy for conflict-management in Ukraine, Dmitry Kozak, has unilaterally announced a pause in the Normandy negotiation process, pending “clarifications to Ukraine’s positions.” Kozak’s announcements concluded and followed the

    Kozak-Yermak Plan on Donbas: The Fine Print

    The meeting of the Minsk-based Contact Group, held by videoconference on March 24–26, had been expected to officially create a new negotiating forum, named the Consultative Council—in fact, an accretion

    Ukraine Goes to Risk-Fraught Normandy Summit (Part One)

    High-level political discussions about “the Ukraine crisis” (a diplomatic euphemism for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine) are scheduled to resume on December 9, in Paris, in the “Normandy” format—Russia, France, Germany,

    NATO Shows an Irresolute Flag in Ukraine (Part Two)

    *To read Part One, please click here. On October 30–31, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) main political decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council (at the ambassadorial level), visited Ukraine

    NATO Shows an Irresolute Flag in Ukraine (Part One)

    Ambassadors from the North Atlantic Council— the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) principal political decision-making body—visited Ukraine, on October 30–31, for a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission. Ukrainian President Volodymyr

    Transnistria: ‘Freezing’ as the Lesser Evil (Part One)

    Ambassadors from Russia, Ukraine, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the United States, and the European Union, collectively the mediators and observers to the Transnistria conflict-settlement negotiations,

    Zelensky-Putin Direct Dialogue? A Whiff in the Air

    President Volodymyr Zelensky’s inaugural address to the country, delivered on May 20 in the Ukrainian parliament, includes an unprecedented offer to start a direct dialogue with the Kremlin (see EDM,

    Russia Punishing Ukraine After the Presidential Election

    The Kremlin is disappointed and angry with the Ukrainian presidential election’s landslide winner, Volodymyr Zelensky. The president-elect may have over-fulfilled Moscow’s forecasts by defeating the incumbent, President Petro Poroshenko, by

    Elections Staged in Ukraine’s East Under Russian Control

    Kremlin-orchestrated, internationally unrecognized “elections” were held on November 11 in the Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” (DPR, LPR), Russian-controlled territories in Ukraine’s east. The final returns, made public on November

    Georgia Plans Its ‘To Do’ Agenda for NATO

    United States President Donald Trump’s behavior at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) recent summit in Brussels (July 11–12) and in its aftermath has cast a shadow on this landmark

    NATO Summit Highlights Partnership With the EU

    United States President Donald Trump’s behavior at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) recent summit in Brussels (July 11–12) and in its aftermath has cast a shadow on this landmark

    NATO-Georgia: Varied Menu, Uncertain Financing

    It was a summit of modest expectations and modest results for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Warsaw on July 8–9. These results are of an interim nature: building-blocks

    John Kerry’s Unwelcome Message in Ukraine

    US Secretary of State John Kerry and Assistant Secretary Victoria Nuland held talks with President Petro Poroshenko and other Ukrainian officials, in Kyiv on July 7. At the joint news

    Nord Stream Two in Ukrainian Perspective

    At Russia’s initiative, the Nord Stream Two natural gas pipeline project has advanced from agreements of intent to a binding agreement; and Gazprom has formed the project consortium with several

    Ukraine Rapidly Dismantling Gazprom’s Supply Monopoly

    Quantitative indicators show a dramatic reorientation of Ukraine’s natural gas supply strategy. Dependence on Gazprom has become a thing of the past. Kyiv demonstrates political resolve to pursue supply diversification

    Russia Subverting Armistice in Ukraine

    Russia is using the ceasefire as an opportunity to cement and expand its military presence, directly as well as through the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR). Following the

    Putin Suggests Own Terms for a Dialogue With Ukraine

    Addressing an international investment forum in Moscow yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin adopted an unusually restrained tone toward Ukraine. In effect, Putin seems to suggest a framework for political dialogue

    Putin’s Ceasefire Plan Sets Traps for Ukraine

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has Ukraine cornered on the battlefield and in diplomatic negotiations at this moment (see accompanying article). On September 3, Putin proposed a seven-point ceasefire plan to

    Russia’s Donetsk Proxies Anticipate Ukrainian Siege

    The newly-installed “prime minister of the Donetsk people’s republic (DPR),” Aleksandr Zakharchenko, was apparently asked to convey a reassuring message to Russia’s public in anticipation of a Ukrainian siege of

    Donetsk ‘Republic’ Leaders’ Morale Plummeting

    Intercepts of Moscow-Donetsk telephone conversations, made public by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), reveal pessimism and demoralization on the part of at least some of the secessionist “republic’s” leadership. On July

    Russia Pressures Ukraine to Prolong the Ceasefire

    Ukraine’s unilateral ceasefire, announced by President Petro Poroshenko on June 20, expires today (June 27). Russia and its proxy forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (Donbas) have actively undermined

    Russia Suspends Natural Gas Supplies to Ukraine

    On June 16, Russia suspended natural gas supplies to Ukraine over non-payment of debts for supplies already delivered. Russia would resume the supplies on condition that Ukraine pays in advance

    Dead in Geneva: The Compromise With Russia on Ukraine

    Russia is inadvertently helping Ukraine, the United States and the European Union to escape the trap of the April 17 Geneva Joint Diplomatic Statement “On the Situation in Ukraine” (https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/04/224957.htm).

    Russia Completes the Annexation of Crimea

    Addressing Russia’s bicameral parliament on March 18, President Vladimir Putin announced Crimea’s incorporation into the Russian Federation. The founding documents on Crimea’s “admission” into Russia were signed on the same

    NATO and Ukraine’s Security Vacuum

    Russia has seized Crimea from Ukraine by military force, wholly unprovoked, and without having to fire a shot (see EDM, February 28, March 3–7, 10). Furthermore, Russia has “legislated” its

    Russian Putsch in Crimea Under Pseudo-Legal Cover

    In the pre-dawn hours on February 27 in Simferopol, some 50 heavily armed Russian men in camouflage uniforms without identification marks seized the parliament and government buildings of the Crimean

    Russian Energy Projects and Hungarian Politics

    Hungary’s Fidesz-led government under Viktor Orban, conservative and Europe-oriented in a traditionalist sense, and strongly anti-communist ever since Fidesz’s formative years, has turned toward Russia for solutions to some of

    Gazprom Advances in Germany

    Russian Gazprom is taking over most of the core business of its German partner, Wintershall, in the natural gas trade and storage business. The two companies had conducted that business

    Russia Conducts Trade Warfare on Multiple Fronts

    Russia’s trade restrictions against Lithuania (ban on Lithuanian dairy products since October 7, threats to ban meat and fish products, harassment of Lithuanian road transport at the Russian border—see EDM,

    Azerbaijan Earns Deferential Treatment from Moscow

    Among the six countries in the European Union’s Eastern Partnership program, Azerbaijan under its President Ilham Aliyev seems uniquely impervious to Russian forms of leverage and, consequently, unique in receiving

    Ukraine’s Gas Storage System: A Unique Asset in Europe

    Addressing Gazprom’s annual general meeting of shareholders, CEO Alexei Miller warned that Gazprom would “never again, under any circumstances” use Ukraine’s gas storage system in the process of delivering Russian

    Ukraine Diversifies Gas Suppliers, Slashes Imports from Gazprom

    Ukraine has recently initiated procurement of natural gas from European suppliers. These volumes are small but growing, correspondingly eroding Gazprom’s market share in Ukraine.The German Rheinisch-Westfaelisches Elektrizitaetswerk (RWE) is providing

    Old and New Options Considered in the Post-Nabucco Era

    Planning the Southern Gas Corridor to Europe, the European Commission in Brussels had defined the Nabucco pipeline project as the corridor’s mainstay. With Nabucco-West’s official demise (see accompanying article and

    The Curtain Falls on Nabucco’s Last Act

    Nabucco-West, the pipeline project that was to have carried Azerbaijani gas from Turkey to the Central European Gas Hub near Vienna, is exiting from the stage. There will be no

    Azerbaijan Wins Tender for Gas Pipelines in Greece

    On June 21, Greece’s State Assets Development Fund announced that Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) has won the tender to acquire control of Greek DESFA’s (Public Gas Transmission System Operator)

    Igor Sechin Door-Crashing in Croatia

    Croatia is set to join the European Union as a full member on July 1. This makes Croatia a more attractive object of Russian energy interests. The head of Zarubezhneft

    EDM analysts cited in Eurasia Review article

    Jamestown analysts Roger McDermott, Vladimir Socor, Pavel Felgenhauer, Georgiy Voloshin, Richard Weitz, and Dumitru Minzarari were cited in an article by Ariel Cohen in Eurasia Review.

    Georgia’s Reset and Russia’s Response (Part Three)

    Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili supervises Georgia’s policy toward Russia through his special envoy, veteran diplomat Zurab Abashidze. This appointment has led to the establishment of a bilateral negotiating channel between

    Polish Government Sheds Light on Gazprom-EuroPolGaz MOU

    Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, has announced some strong measures in response to the April 5 memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between EuroPolGaz and Russian Gazprom, negotiated behind the Polish government’s

    Vladimir Socor quoted by Zawya

    Jamestown analyst Vladimir Socor was quoted by Zawya in an article titled Nabucco, TAP battle it out for Azeri gas deal.

    Ukraine Importing Gas from Germany via Hungary and Poland

    Denting Russian Gazprom’s monopoly, Ukraine is procuring small but growing volumes of natural gas from Europe. The German Rheinisch-Westfaelisches Elektrizitaetswerk (RWE) is providing the volumes through its subsidiary, RWE Supply

    Angela Merkel Opens a European Perspective for Moldova

    Visiting Moldova on August 22 (see accompanying article), German Chancellor Angela Merkel declared twice unambiguously that Moldova does have a “European perspective”—albeit in a “step-by-step process”; and “we shall accompany

    Croatia Can Call Gazprom’s Bluff on South Stream

    Moscow is “pressuring” Croatia to join Gazprom’s South Stream project urgently, before Croatia’s accession to the European Union takes legal effect in 2013. An internal analysis, prepared by Croatian government

    Gazprom’s Shtokman Project: Relic of a Past Era

    On August 7, Norway’s Statoil announced its exit from the super-giant Shtokman gas field development in the Russian Arctic. The Norwegian company, majority state-owned, is writing off its investment into

    Hungarian MOL Goes Upstream in Kazakhstani Projects

    On July 19, Hungarian-based MOL entered into a partnership with Kazmunaigaz E&P (Exploration & Production, the upstream subsidiary of the national company Kazmunaigaz) to develop the North Karpovsky oil and

    NATO and Georgia: Beyond the Open Door

    NATO’s summit on May 20 in Chicago has brought Georgia slightly closer to the “open door” of membership in the Alliance. The Chicago summit’s declaration reaffirms earlier decisions, committing NATO

    Nabucco-West in Synergy with Trans-Anatolia Project

    Hungary’s critique of the Nabucco project (see accompanying article) has prompted the other partners in the consortium to express their own views. On the whole, these reflect the stakeholders’ common

    Hungary Casts Serious Doubt on the Nabucco Project

    Hungary has raised some serious questions about the viability of the Nabucco gas pipeline project and the performance of the project company’s management. The Hungarian critique has strongly reverberated in

    Chevron Postpones Shale Gas Exploration in Romania

    After Bulgaria (see EDM, January 24), Romania might unnecessarily miss its own chance to explore a promising shale gas potential in partnership with the Chevron Corporation. Unlike the Bulgarian situation,

    Russian Oil Companies Buying West European Refineries

    Russian oil companies Gunvor, Rosneft, and Lukoil are spearheading what looks like an acquisition spree of refining capacities in Western Europe. Some West-European authorities accept without qualms and even welcome

    Lithuania Contracts for LNG Terminal

    In 2011, Lithuania became the first European Union member country to enact EU energy market reform on national territory (see EDM, July 7, 2011). Lithuania opted for the most far-reaching

    Confidence in the Nabucco Project Fading

    Confidence in the viability of the Nabucco project – at least in its version envisaged from 2004 to 2011 – seems to be fading all around. On January 25, the

    Russian Oil Business Targeting EU’s Entrant Croatia

    Croatia has become the newest member of the European Union, with a national referendum on January 22 capping the accession process. The government-controlled JANAF (Jadranski Naftovod – Adriatic Oil Transportation)

    Russia Blocks Consensus At OSCE’s Year-End Conference

    On December 6-7 in Vilnius, the OSCE’s year-end ministerial conference dramatized this organization’s vulnerability to sabotage by the Kremlin. That vulnerability is inherent in the OSCE’s own structure and modus

    US, NATO Acknowledge Russian Kill of CFE Treaty

    In December 2007, Moscow killed the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) officially, declaring a unilateral “moratorium” (suspension) of indefinite duration on Russia’s compliance with the CFE treaty and

    Inspections At Gazprom In the EU: Why Now?

    The European Commission has launched a round of inspections at Gazprom’s affiliate companies in EU member countries. This is the opening stage in an anti-trust investigation of the Russian monopoly’s

    Turkey Seeks Price Cut On Russian Gas

    Turkey has joined the growing ranks of claimants to revision of their contracts with Gazprom. On September 29, Turkish Energy Minister, Taner Yildiz, warned that Turkey would end a 25-year-old

    Nabucco’s Rivals Deploy Their Counter-Arguments

    Baku expects three gas transportation consortiums to submit competing bids by October for the gas production of Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz field, Phase Two. The rival projects are Nabucco (Turkey-Bulgaria-Romania-Hungary-Austria, potentially

    Russia Proposes to Codify Intervention Right Via CSTO

    CSTO’s Secretary-General, Nikolai Bordyuzha, has expatiated on proposals to use the Collective Security Treaty Organization as a tool of Russian intervention within member countries. His latest statements focus on managing

    Major Gas Discovery Announced In Azerbaijan

    The French company, Total, and Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) have announced a major gas discovery at the offshore Absheron field. According to Total, the first results from the exploration

    Nabucco Project Can Advance Faster Than Rivals

    Nabucco, the strategic project for transportation of Caspian gas to Europe, seems threatened by the non-strategic pipeline projects, ITGI (Interconnector Turkey-Greece-Italy) and TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline). These are less advanced, compared

    Hungarian MOL Harassed In EU Entrant Croatia

    Within days after the European Commission had cleared Croatia to join the EU (Financial Times, June 22), political harassment of Hungarian MOL has intensified in Croatia. Russian interests are conveniently

    France, Russia Sign Contract On Mistral Warships

    As a highlight of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (see EDM, June 20), Russian President Dmitry Medvedev witnessed the signing of the contract for two French Mistral-class warships to

    German Initiatives Favor Russia On Transnistria Talks

    (Part Two) In the context of Russo-German special relations, the German government proposes to restart international negotiations on the Transnistria conflict from a modified basis, one largely favorable to Russian

    Russia to the West’s Rescue in Libya?

    As predicted from the outset of the Libya crisis (EDM, April 21, 26), Russia now officially proposes to “help” extricate the Western belligerents from their difficulties in Libya. Moreover, Moscow’s

    Surgut’s Exit From Hungary Is a Success for Europe

    Hungary’s government has successfully completed negotiations with the Russian government and Surgutneftegaz about the latter’s exit from Hungary. The government is purchasing Surgut’s 21.2 percent stake in the oil and

    Moscow Encourages Turmoil in Georgia

    Moscow has stimulated the radical opposition’s actions in Tbilisi (see EDM, May 24), and stands ready to exploit the unrest. Russian state television channels provide sympathetic, over-dramatized coverage of the

    NATO in Libya: An Improvised Intervention

    The United States kick-started the Libya operation on March 19, in charge of Operation Odyssey Dawn, and launching air and missile strikes until April 3. The French, British, and several

    Russia Seeks China’s Support on Libya Crisis

    On May 6 in Moscow, President Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov each received Lavrov’s Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi. According to Lavrov at the concluding news conference, Russia

    NATO Clarifies Goals in Libya

    NATO allies seek additional military, political, and financial means to overcome the unanticipated stalemate in Libya. Alliance leaders are also addressing incipient symptoms of fatigue with the seemingly protracted operation,

    Russia Unveils Political Objectives In Libya

    Russia’s abstention on the UN Security Council Resolution 1973 helped open the door to Western military action on a limited scale in Libya. The Obama administration led the military action

    Moscow Positioning To Exploit Libya Stalemate

    The United States and Western Europe’s residual military powers have undertaken in Libya another war of choice. Russia ushered them into it by not vetoing the UN Security Council’s resolution

    Putin Persists With LNG-Zing the South Stream Project

    On March 21, at his Novo Ogaryovo residence, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin witnessed the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to negotiate German Wintershall’s accession to Gazprom’s South

    Moscow Backs Surgut’s Push in Hungary

    Co-chairing a session of the Russian-Hungarian Intergovernmental Economic Cooperation Commission in Moscow, Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov asked Hungary to eliminate “subjective” obstacles to Russian investments there (MTI, March 21).

    Putin Looks For LNG Exit From South Stream

    On March 9, the Russian government’s official websites published a transcript of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s and Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko’s “working meeting,” held that day in Putin’s office. Putin

    Southern Gas Corridor Risks Loss Of Strategic Focus

    “Achieving the objectives of the Southern Corridor,” in the European Commission’s phrase (EurActiv, February 19), implies commitment to its strategic purpose. This is to supply countries along the Nabucco project’s

    Cost And Supply Issues Delay The Nabucco Project

    The Nabucco pipeline consortium has discreetly postponed its final investment decision by another year, this time until early 2012, with construction to start in 2012 “at the earliest” (Dow Jones,

    Russia Mothballs Trans-Balkan Oil Pipeline Project

    On February 17, the stakeholders and supervisory board of the Russian-led Burgas-Alexandropolis oil pipeline project shelved the project in all but name. The host countries, Bulgaria and Greece, had (each

    South Stream CEO Makes The Case For The Project

    Launched in 2007, Gazprom’s South Stream project ran out of potential gas resources by 2009 (thanks primarily to Turkmenistan’s reorientation), and out of potential financing at the same time (due

    Made In Germany For Russia’s Army

    Germany is joining a scramble among West-European producers of military equipment for Russian orders. NATO and the United States are silent bystanders to this growing trend, which challenges the Alliance’s

    Georgia Provides More Security Than it Consumes

    Addressing the annual international security forum in Munich –the highest-level NATO event between the Alliance’s summits–Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili, had the temerity to talk strategy. His address stood out in

    Lithuania Assumes the Chairmanship of the OSCE

    Chairing the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 2010, Kazakhstan showed that it is possible to bring a successful chairmanship to a failing organization. Prerequisites to a

    France, Russia Sign Mistral Agreement

    “Paris is well-worth a [Catholic] mass” (“Paris vaut-bien une messe”), King Henri IV, a Protestant, remarked when told that his attendance at a Catholic Church service was the price for

    Russia Prepares to Re-Enter Afghanistan

    Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, and Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, received the Afghan President, Hamid Karzai, on January 21-23 for an official visit. It was the first Russian-Afghan presidential-level meeting since

    TAPI: The Audacity of Pipeline Hope

    On December 11 in Ashgabat, the top officials of four participant countries signed agreements on a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, favored on and off (currently on again) by the

    Turkmenistan Encourages Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline

    Framework agreements on a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline (TAPI) are scheduled for signing by high-level officials of the four countries on December 11 in Ashgabat (Turkmen Television, Press Trust of India, December

    NATO Disinclined to Debate Mistral Affair

    Debate on the implications of military sales to Russia is stifled in NATO. The proposed sale of French Mistral-class warships to Russia is by far the largest among possible Russian

    Wikileaks Perturb US-Azerbaijan Relations (Part Two)

    The US Embassy’s February 25, 2010 report from Baku opens an almost panoramic view on the current state of the bilateral relationship (https://cablegate.wikileaks.org). Two aspects stand out in this comprehensive

    Wikileaks Perturb US-Azerbaijan Relations (Part One)

    Perhaps more than the WikiLeaks themselves, it is the massive security breach and counterintelligence failure that will, for some time to come, discourage candid conversations between the US government and

    Bulgaria Rejoins Gazprom’s South Stream Project

    On November 13 in Sofia, Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, and his Bulgarian counterpart, Boyko Borissov, witnessed the signing of Bulgaria’s accession to Gazprom’s South Stream project (Interfax, BTA, Novinite,

    Russia Targeting Oil Assets in Poland and Lithuania

    On October 30, Poland announced its intention to privatize the state-owned majority stake in the country’s second-largest oil industry concern, Lotos Group. The Polish government is inviting interested parties to

    Croatian Government Hesitates on Gas Sector Reform

    European Commission President, Jose Manuel Barroso, recently indicated to the visiting Croatian Prime Minister, Jadranka Kosor, that Croatia’s accession talks to join the EU may be completed by the end

    Another Chance for the Odessa-Brody Pipeline

    Using the Odessa-Brody oil pipeline as originally intended, south-north, is under active consideration again; this time, by the governments of Ukraine and Belarus. The pipeline is being used since 2004

    Demand Growing for Azerbaijani Gas

    On October 7 in Baku, BP signed a production sharing agreement with Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) for the exploration and development of the Shafag and Asiman gas blocks in

    NATO Secretary-General Pays Unedifying Visit To Georgia

    Thirteen months into his tenure, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen travelled to Georgia, the number one troop-contributing country on a per capita basis to NATO’s mission in Afghanistan. Rasmussen’s October

    Warsaw Wavers Between Brussels and Gazprom

    Moscow has apparently chosen Poland as a ground for testing the European Union’s common energy policy. In ongoing negotiations for a new supply agreement, Gazprom seeks to pressure Poland to

    Russia Inhibits U.S. Defense Assistance to Georgia

    Visiting Washington on September 15-17, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov asked for the US to consider military equipment sales to Russia. Conversely, Serdyukov announced despite US objections that Russia would

    Gazprom’s South Stream Set Back On Several Fronts

    Turkmen President, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov’s, September 16 statement, explicitly linking the Turkmen East-West gas pipeline with the European Union-backed Nabucco project (EDM, September 17), is not only a boost for Nabucco,

    Russia Deploys S-300 Air Defense Systems in Abkhazia

    Russian state news agencies announced today (August 11) that Russia’s armed forces have deployed the advanced S-300 air defense missile systems in Abkhazia, a territory that Moscow recognizes as “independent.”

    EU Supports Nabucco Against South Stream

    On July 30 in Berlin, Gazprom’s Vice-President, Aleksandr Medvedev, deprecated the EU-backed Nabucco project and claimed that Russia would imminently proceed with the rival South Stream. “There is complete certainty

    Loopholes Opening in US, EU Sanctions on Iran

    The United States and the European Union have imposed on July 1 and July 26, respectively, a new round of sanctions of unprecedented severity, presuming to hinder Iran’s uranium-enrichment program.

    Mistral Saga: Igor Sechin Se Moque De Paris

    The French ambassador to Estonia, Frederic Billet, has asked the host country to look positively at the French sale of Mistral-class warships to Russia. The ambassador told Estonian media that

    MOL Well Placed to Fend off Surgut’s New Move

    Russia’s Surgutneftegaz has filed a case in Budapest’s Metropolitan Court, seeking legal registration as a stakeholder in Hungarian MOL, the national oil and gas company. Surgut is asking the court

    Interest Surging in Azerbaijani Gas (Part Two)

    International demand for Azeri gas (EDM, July 1) is also rising outside the European Union. It is mostly driven by the anticipation of post-crisis industrial recovery and by considerations of

    Interest Surging in Azerbaijani Gas

    Demand for Azerbaijani natural gas is surging, with potential buyers scrambling to Baku. The gas transit agreements, signed by Azerbaijan and Turkey on June 7, have opened prospects for unimpeded

    Russia Defends Soviet Occupation of Moldova

    On June 24, Moldova’s interim president Mihai Ghimpu issued a decree instituting June 28 as the Day of Remembrance of the Soviet Occupation—an event that occurred on June 28, 1940

    Gazprom Again Reconfigures the South Stream Project

    Bulgaria’s suspension of the South Stream project on its territory is forcing Gazprom to reconfigure South Stream’s overall geography, with uncertain options and prospects (EDM, June 14, 18, 22). Gazprom

    Gazprom Seduces Romania With South Stream

    On June 16 in Moscow, Gazprom CEO, Aleksei Miller, and Romanian Economy Minister, Adriean Videanu, agreed on steps to bring Romania, instead of Bulgaria, into the South Stream project; and

    Will Russia be Cast as “Peacekeeper” in Kyrgyzstan?

    Kyrgyzstan’s interim leader, Roza Otunbayeva, has taken the desperate step of requesting Russian military intervention to quell the violent civil conflict in southern Kyrgyzstan. She presented that request to Russian

    Bulgarian Government Disavows Three Russian Energy Projects

    Bulgarian government statements on June 11-12 have conclusively disavowed Russia’s projects to build the South Stream gas pipeline, Burgas-Alexandropolis oil pipeline, and Belene nuclear power plant, on Bulgaria’s territory.These announcements

    NATO Can Use Article Four to Consult About Arms Sales

    Russian officials have hinted all along that Russia’s four naval fleets (Northern, Baltic, Black Sea, and Pacific) would receive one French Mistral-class warship each, if the Franco-Russian deal materializes as

    Moscow Keeps Paris on Edge Over the Mistral Affair

    Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili, paid an official visit to France on June 8-9, back-to-back with Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin’s, June 10-11 visit there. The proposed sale of French Mistral

    Turkmen Gas Export Diversification: An Overview

    The start of construction on the East-West Turkmen pipeline (Turkmenistan Starts Construction of East-West Pipeline, EDM June 8) marks the third phase of Turkmenistan’s gas export diversification strategy. In just

    Georgia Develops Functional Relations With Iran

    On May 20-24, a delegation of Tehran journalists, led by the Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry’s Spokesman, Ramin Mehmanparast (with deputy minister’s rank), visited Georgia. The group included journalists from Iranian

    Biden Proposes Moving Beyond the CFE Treaty

    US Vice-President, Joseph Biden’s, landmark article (Biden Proposes New Tasks for the OSCE, EDM, May 14) also heralds new US proposals on conventional arms control in Europe. These would seek

    Vice President Biden Envisions New Tasks for the OSCE

    The Obama administration is about to launch policy initiatives regarding Europe’s eastern neighborhood and conventional arms control in Europe. US Vice-President Joseph Biden has unveiled a number of ideas through

    Moscow Grooming a Political Team in Tbilisi

    Each spring from 2007 to date, Georgia’s radical opposition has linked its regime-change campaigns with a powerful patron, in the hope of counterbalancing the state authorities. Initially that patron was

    Putin Calls For Naftohaz Ukrainy-Gazprom Gas Merger

    Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, has proposed a “merger“of Ukraine’s national energy company Naftohaz Ukrainy with Russia’s Gazprom. The proposal emerged during Putin’s April 30 meeting with Ukrainian Prime Minister,

    South Stream is Not a Ukraine Bypass Project

    Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, stopped in Kyiv on April 27, following his discussions in Italy and Austria on the South Stream gas pipeline project (Austria Joins Gazprom’s South Stream

    Austria Joins Gazprom’s South Stream Project

    On April 24, Russia and Austria signed governmental and corporate agreements on Austria’s accession to Russia’s South Stream gas pipeline project. Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, led the Russian delegation to

    US Conflict Resolution Policy Backfires in Yerevan

    The US State Department seems disappointed, but not entirely surprised, by Yerevan’s April 22 suspension of Armenian-Turkish “normalization.” Assistant Secretary of State, Philip Gordon, in charge of this policy, finds

    Is the United States Losing Azerbaijan?: Part One

    Azerbaijan’s long-standing alignment with the United States is rapidly unraveling in the wake of Washington’s recent policy initiatives. As perceived from Baku, those US initiatives fly in the face of

    Surgut Misfires Once More Against Hungarian MOL

    For the second consecutive year, Russia’s Surgutneftegaz has failed to crash the door of the Hungarian MOL’s annual general meeting of its shareholders and the board of directors. The April

    AGRI: First Ever LNG Project in the Black Sea

    Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Romanian are jointly launching a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, designated as the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Romania Interconnector (AGRI). The three governments regard their project as an element in the

    Mistral Debate Unavoidable in NATO: Part One

    The view that NATO has no business discussing French arms deals with Russia is far from being a consensus position. The proposed sale of French Mistral-class warships –an offensive power-projection

    Belarus Sues Russia in the CIS Economic Court

    In a precedent-setting move, Belarus is suing Russia in the CIS Economic Court. The case at hand concerns Russian export duties on refined oil products and “petrochemical raw materials” to

    Ukrainian Government Reconsiders Gas Policy

    Based upon the record of the last eight years, Ukrainian governments and industrialists linked to them have sought deep discounts on the price of Russian gas in two ways, both

    The UN Accepts CSTO as a Regional Security Organization

    On March 18, in Moscow, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) Secretary-General, Nikolay Bordyuzha, signed a declaration on cooperation between the two secretariats. The

    Gazprom’s Partner ENI Loses Confidence in South Stream

    Italy’s ENI chief executive, Paolo Scaroni, has proposed unifying the Gazprom-led South Stream with the European Union-backed Nabucco pipeline project. The Italian state-controlled energy conglomerate ENI is the key technological

    Brussels Ready to Work with Yanukovych for Ukraine

    Ukraine’s newly elected President, Viktor Yanukovych, chose Brussels as his first destination for a working visit abroad. Inaugurated on February 25, Yanukovych held talks with European Union leaders on March

    Medvedev in Paris: Vive la Georgie, Monsieur?

    Alexander II, Tsar of Russia, visited France at the invitation of Emperor Napoleon III in 1867, three years after the Russian army’s bloody suppression of Poland’s revolt for independence. The

    Russian Authorities Threaten BP Assets at Kovykta Project

    Russia’s Natural Environment Inspectorate (RosPrirodNadzor) has recommended that BP’s joint venture in Russia, TNK-BP, be stripped of the giant Kovykta natural gas project in eastern Siberia (Interfax, February 19).Located in

    Can Nabucco be Married Off to Gazprom?

    Unexpectedly, the US State Department’s Special Envoy for Eurasian energy affairs, Richard Morningstar, seems to embrace the idea of allowing Gazprom to become a user of the Nabucco pipeline. Speaking

    Hungary Signs South Stream Project Agreement

    On January 31 in Budapest, Russian and Hungarian officials signed the project agreement for the construction of Gazprom’s South Stream pipeline on Hungarian territory. Hungary’s privately-owned MOL Company, a member

    Gazprom Half-Acknowledges Pessimistic Outlook

    Gazprom’s board of directors held its traditional start-of-year meeting on January 26 to set policies for 2010 (Interfax, January 26, 27). The decisions focus on marketing policy, rather than investment

    Russian Oil Supply Cut Hits Belarusian Refineries

    Moscow is tightening the squeeze on Belarus’ large-capacity, in the absence of an oil supply agreement for 2010, mainly on export-oriented refineries. The Mozyr and Navapolatsk refineries and other oil

    Moscow Tightens Squeeze on Belarus Oil Industry

    The Russian government threatens Belarus with an imminent cessation of oil supplies to the country’s two big refineries, Mozyr and Navapolatsk (aggregate capacity at least 25 million tons annually). The

    Gazprom Wooing Croatia Ahead of Putin-Kosor Meeting

    Interviewed in the current issue of Southeast European Times (January 12), Gazprom Vice-President (and Gazprom Export chief) Aleksandr Medvedev unveiled a program of business expansion throughout that region, with a

    Russia Adjusting Regime Change Policy in Georgia

    Reversing Carl Von Clausewitz’s dictum, Russia’s emergent policy toward Georgia is essentially a continuation of war by political means. Russia’s 2008 war and three-year economic blockade sought to change Georgia’s

    Iran and Turkmenistan Inaugurate Gas Pipeline

    On January 6 in Dauletabad, Turkmenistan’s President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov and his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inaugurated a pipeline that runs from that giant Turkmen gas field to Iran. The government

    Moscow Using Oil Export Duty to Pressure Belarus

    Effective January 1, Russia has drastically reduced its traditional subsidy to the oil processing industry in Belarus and, thereby, to President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s government. That industry in Belarus is processing

    Russian Gas and Oil Projects on Hold in Bulgaria

    On December 11 in Sofia, a regular meeting of the Russian-Bulgarian inter-governmental commission on economic cooperation failed to restart the three major Russian energy projects in Bulgaria: the South Stream

    Moldovan Prime Minister Filat Reaches Out to Putin

    Moldova’s simultaneous crises –economic and constitutional– have opened a door for Russia to influence politics in Chisinau and arbitrate the power struggles there. The dual crisis, ongoing since early spring,

    Nabucco Investment Decision Postponed

    On November 11 the Austrian OMV-led Nabucco management announced that the investment decision on the project will be postponed, from early 2010 to the fourth quarter of that year. There

    Nord Stream Pipeline Project Still Short of Resources

    Four years after Germans and Russians signed the founding agreement (October 2005), the Nord Stream pipeline project has received the Scandinavian countries’ approval for construction on the Baltic seabed, from

    Allons Enfants de la Russie in the Black Sea?

    The French government and, apparently, the Élysée Palace are moving fast to sell at least one Mistral-class helicopter carrier to Russia, possibly for deployment in the Black Sea. Such a

    Gazprom, Gazpromneft, in Serbia’s Oil and Gas Sector

    Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s October 20 visit to Belgrade (EDM October 27) helped accelerate Serbia’s orientation toward Russia’s economic orbit. The Serbian government is handing additional energy assets over to

    U.S. Delegation Returns Empty Handed From Moscow

    The Kremlin blindsided U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with unexpected challenges during her October 13-14 Moscow visit, her first to Russia in that official capacity. The Russian side distorted

    Putin and Gazprom Target Croatia

    With Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s direct backing, Gazprom and other Russian energy companies have embarked upon an effort to co-opt Croatia into their projects, including a fanciful South Stream gas

    Gazprom Takes its South Stream Bluff to Bucharest

    This week in Bucharest, high-level representatives of the Russian energy business and their Italian allies are making their strongest pitch yet for Romania to join their South Stream gas transport

    Putin’s Yamal Offer: a Preliminary Assessment

    Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's call for Western-assisted development of Yamal gas reserves for export as liquefied natural gas (LNG) (EDM, September 25) holds potential global ramifications. Top managers of

    Time to De-Mothball the Budapest Memorandum for Ukraine

    A representative group of Ukraine's cultural elite has alerted Western governments and public opinion to Russia's mounting threats against Ukrainian independence. Alarmed by Moscow's latest moves, the signatories of the

    Maritime Security Weaknesses in the Black Sea

    Russian naval operations in August 2008 highlighted the security deficit in the Black Sea. As a littoral country, Russia misused the territory of another littoral country, Ukraine, as a staging

    Putin Takes Opel’s Wheel

    On September 10 General Motors, partly owned by the U.S. government, changed its position and allowed its ailing German subsidiary, Opel, to be "rescued" by a Kremlin-controlled consortium. The German

    U.S. Defers Decisions on Re-Arming Georgia

    U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden made clear during his Georgia visit (July 22-23) that the United States would not supply Georgia with defensive weapons. Georgia has no anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems

    U.S. Foreign Policy Tested over Georgia

    Following U.S. President Barack Obama's reaffirmation of political support for Georgia at the Moscow summit (EDM, July 14), and anticipating U.S. Vice-President Joseph Biden's visit to Tbilisi, Russian President Dmitry

    US Policy Toward Georgia at a Crossroads

    U.S. President Barack Obama's firm stand on Georgia during the July 6-7 Moscow summit, to be followed by Vice-President Joseph Biden's visit to Georgia on July 22, marks a crossroads

    OSCE RIP in Georgia

    On June 30 the OSCE officially terminated its Mission in Georgia, which had for 17 years monitored the situation in and around South Ossetia. Russia forced the OSCE to close

    UNOMIG, RIP: the Curtain Finally Falls on a Side-Show

    On June 16 U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon saw himself compelled to order the United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) to cease operations immediately, after 16 years of existence (Secretary-General's

    Uzbekistan Quietly Stalling on CSTO Collective forces

    Russian President Dmitry Medvedev clarified that Armenia signed without conditions, but it was Uzbekistan that registered multiple objections and reservations at the Collective Security Treaty Organization's (CSTO) summit in Moscow

    Surgut Neftegaz Tries Crashing MOL’S Doors

    *Note to readers: the M:Communications company advises that Mr. Gennady Timchenko owned less than 0.1 percent of Surgut shares as of June 11 The Kremlin-connected oil company Surgut Neftegaz has

    Gazprom and Western Companies Compete in Iran

    On May 24 in Tehran, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his counterpart in Pakistan Asif Ali Zardari signed an intergovernmental framework declaration on gas pipeline construction and gas deliveries from

    Azerbaijan Looking at Narrow Gas Export Options

    At the oil and gas conference just held in Baku, Industry and Energy Minister Natig Aliyev, confirmed that Azerbaijan strives for access to European markets as the main export destination

    Nabucco Project Faces Turkish Hurdles at Critical Turn

    Capitalizing on the European Commission's November 2008 initiative to promote the Corridor and to create a Caspian Development Corporation, the Budapest meeting set the goal of signing the Intergovernmental Agreement

    “Nashi” Foray into Georgia Stopped in Time

    On April 16, Georgian authorities prevented the Kremlin-coordinated youth group, Nashi, from provoking incidents at the South Ossetia demarcation line and in Tbilisi. A convoy of five vehicles carrying 20

    Chancellor Merkel Says Nein to Nabucco

    Shifting gears from an ostensible equidistance between pipeline projects, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has come out against proposals to use European Union funds to kick-start the Nabucco pipeline project for

    No Gas Sources Foreseen for Gazprom’s South Stream

    Gazprom vice-president Aleksandr Medvedev's extensive briefing on the South Stream transport project for potential investors (see article above) left the matter of sourcing it with gas entirely obscure. This omission

    Slovak Government Invites Gazprom into the Country

    On January 23 in Bratislava, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Gazprom Vice-President Aleksandr Medvedev announced the intention to create a Slovak-Gazprom joint enterprise. Fico stated specifically that he wanted

    Russia Strengthening Its Monopoly on Uzbek Gas

    On January 23 in Tashkent, Presidents Dmitry Medvedev of Russia and Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan firmed up bilateral agreements that strengthen Russia’s monopoly on Uzbek exports of natural gas. Their

    Turkey Retracts Warning to Nabucco and the EU

    On January 19 in Brussels, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to “reconsider” his country’s participation in the Nabucco gas transit pipeline project unless the European Union promptly opened

    Recent Initiatives to Advance the Nabucco Project

    While the Nabucco pipeline remains clearly the centerpiece of the Southern Corridor project, Nabucco alone—even in its second, full-capacity phase—would be far from sufficient to cover the rise in European

    Steinmeier Writes an Open Letter to Obama

    German Minister of Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier has addressed a lengthy open letter to U.S. President Barack Obama on the eve of his inauguration. Published in Germany’s mass-circulation weekly Der Spiegel (January

    U.S. and Georgia Sign Strategic Partnership Charter

    On January 9 in Washington, barely a week before the change of administrations there, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Minister of Foreign Affairs Grigol Vashadze signed the U.S.-Georgia Charter

    OSCE Mission in Georgia on Its Death Bed

    With a sleight of its hand, Russia has run the OSCE out of South Ossetia. The mandate of the OSCE Mission in Georgia expired on January 1, because Russia blocked

    Serbia’s Oil Industry: a Christmas Gift to Gazprom

    On December 24, 2008, the Serbian government ceded control over Serbia’s Oil Industry (Naftna Industrija Srbije, NIS) to Russian Gazprom’s oil subsidiary, Gazprom Neft. Motivated to a large extent politically

    NATO ANPs Instead of MAPs for Ukraine and Georgia

    NATO has pushed aside the Membership Action Plans (MAPs) as mechanisms for Ukraine’s and Georgia’s eventual accession to the alliance. On December 3 in Brussels, the North Atlantic Council (NAC)

    A Rogue Fleet in the Black Sea

    Russia’s Black Sea Fleet operated with total impunity—political and legal, as well as military—against Georgia during the August war. Breaching the neutrality of Ukraine, where it is mainly based, and

    Azerbaijan Hosts Energy Summit

    Presidents and other senior officials from 14 countries in the Caspian, Black Sea, Central European and Baltic regions, as well as U.S. and EU delegations, attended an energy summit on

    Austria’s OMV To Share Key Terminal With Gazprom

    On November 5 Austria’s OMV energy company advanced toward a final agreement with Russia’s Gazprom to share the Baumgarten gas terminal near Vienna. That terminal, however, is the designated end

    CFE TREATY DEAD AND BURIED IN GEORGIA

    Since December 2007, Russia has officially “suspended its compliance” with the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE, signed in 1990 and adapted in 1999). The “suspension” has dealt the

    RUSSIA STILL SEEKING A UN CAMOUFLAGE IN ABKHAZIA

    The United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) and the UN itself are collateral casualties of Russia’s invasion of Georgia and “recognition of Abkhazia’s independence.” The diplomatic negotiating process, which

    RUSSIA BLOCKING OSCE’S ACCESS TO SOUTH OSSETIA

    Russia’s August 26 official recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as “independent states” will change nothing on the ground, let alone the international legal status of the two territories. With

    RUSSIA’S WAR ON GEORGIA IS AIMED AGAINST THE WEST

    For the fifth day running, Russian forces are pursuing their onslaught against Georgia. Russian troops have brutally advanced far beyond the so-called conflict zones, deep inside the country, occupying towns

    SARKOZY ARMISTICE PLAN FAVORS RUSSIA, UNDERCUTS GEORGIA

    On August 12 in Moscow, following Georgia’s unilateral ceasefire, French President Nicolas Sarkozy agreed with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on the conditions for Russia to cease hostilities against Georgia. That

    SARKOZY-MEDVEDEV PLAN FLAWED IN SUBSTANCE AND PROCESS

    French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s initiative for a Russian cease-fire in Georgia (see accompanying article) is undoubtedly a helpful short-term measure, dictated by military necessity. It is also a welcome sign

    MOSCOW ORCHESTRATES WAR SCARE IN SOUTH OSSETIA

    Since July 31, Russian state television channels have been airing inflammatory stories about Georgian forces firing on South Ossetia’s administrative center Tskhinvali, inflicting civilian casualties and causing a refugee exodus

    BERLIN CONSULTATIONS ON ABKHAZIA DERAILED

    Moscow and Sukhumi have thwarted the proposed consultations in Berlin that could have launched a negotiating process toward resolution of the conflict in Abkhazia. The German government had offered to

    GAZPROM’S EFFORTS IN TURKMENISTAN UNMATCHED BY WEST

    Gazprom president Aleksei Miller’s July 24-25 visit to Ashgabat brought Russia closer to its goal of monopolizing Turkmenistan’s proven and probable gas reserves for the next several years. Miller’s visit

    THE IRON SILK ROAD ADVANCES FURTHER

    Presidents Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia, and Abdullah Gul of Turkey inaugurated on July 24 in Kars the construction work on the Turkish section of the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku

    POST-MORTEMS ON THE GERMAN PLAN ON ABKHAZIA

    Moscow refined at the last moment its method of killing Berlin’s plan for resolving the Abkhazia conflict. Rather than rejecting the plan outright, as it did initially, Moscow received German

    GAZPROM HIT BY GAS SHORTFALL

    A gap has opened between Gazprom's stagnant production and its growing commitments to internal and external consumers of that gas. The gap looms even wider between Gazprom's projected output in

    GAZPROM ON A SHOPPING SPREE FOR GAS

    Gazprom has embarked on a grand shopping tour for gas. Although Russia is the world’s largest gas producer and exporter, the Kremlin seeks to maximize gas imports into Russia from

    GUAM SHOWS ITS RESILIENCE AT BATUMI SUMMIT

    The GUAM Summit just held in Batumi (see EDM, July 7) demonstrated that Georgia and Azerbaijan compose GUAM’s solid core; that Ukraine’s governing political forces are committed to GUAM while

    …WHILE GLOSSING OVER POST-SOVIET CONFLICTS

    The unresolved conflicts, conducted or underwritten by Russia in ex-Soviet territories, were glossed over in Khanty-Mansiisk. EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana had informally

    GEORGIA HIGH ON THE EU-RUSSIA SUMMIT AGENDA

    The European Union has decided to make an issue of Russia’s assault on Georgia at the EU-Russia summit in Khanty-Mansiisk on June 26 and 27. This decision, and the surge

    SOLANA RETURNS EMPTY-HANDED FROM ABKHAZIA

    The European Union’s High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana returned empty-handed from his June 6 talks with Abkhaz secessionist leaders in Sokhumi. Solana held talks

    RUSSIA DEPLOYS RAILWAY TROOPS TO ABKHAZIA

    On May 30 and 31 Russia’s Defense Ministry sent railway troops into Abkhazia without informing Georgia, much less requesting its consent. The move involves some 400 personnel, mostly from the

    NATO CREATES CYBER DEFENSE CENTER IN ESTONIA

    On May 15 in Brussels, top military commanders from seven NATO countries and the Allied Command Transformation signed an agreement to create a Cooperative Cyber Defense Center. The center is

    UNCONVENTIONAL GAS EXTRACTION IN HUNGARY

    Hungary’s MOL oil and gas company has entered into a partnership with ExxonMobil of the United States and Falcon Oil & Gas of British Columbia, Canada, to develop the gas

    THE PRO-MAP FACTION SUCCEEDS AT NATO SUMMIT

    NATO’s recently concluded summit in Bucharest highlighted the political weight of the new member countries from Central and Eastern Europe in the alliance’s decision-making processes. Aligned with the United States,

    NATO OPENS A CRISIS SUMMIT IN BUCHAREST

    Heads of state and government of NATO member countries are convening today (April 2) in Bucharest for a three-day summit. The Alliance faces an unacknowledged, multidimensional crisis. The U.S. predicament

    GEORGIA OFFERS FAR-REACHING AUTONOMY TO ABKHAZIA

    Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has proposed a reunification of Abkhazia with the rest of Georgia on terms of far-reaching autonomy and with the assistance of international guarantors (Civil Georgia, Rustavi

    HARD DEBATES AT NATO ON GEORGIAN MEMBERSHIP ACTION PLAN

    Several West European governments cold-shouldered Georgia’s and Ukraine’s applications for NATO Membership Action Plans (MAPs) during the meeting of NATO countries’ ministers of foreign affairs on March 6 in Brussels.

    SOUTH STREAM GAS PROJECT DEFEATING NABUCCO BY DEFAULT

    Gazprom’s blitzkrieg capture of five European Union member countries for its South Stream project, preempting the EU- and U.S.-backed Nabucco project, has shattered the credibility of Brussels’ and Washington’s energy

    LUKOIL REDUCES OIL SUPPLIES TO GERMANY, AGAIN

    Russia’s Lukoil has halted oil supplies to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline for the remainder of February and “until further notice.” This is the third interruption in Russian oil deliveries

    BADRI PATARKATSISHVILI DIES IN LONDON

    Georgian billionaire and frustrated business king of the country, Badri Patarkatsishvili, died today (February 13) in London of a reported heart attack. Patarkatsishvili had left Georgia on November 3, 2007,

    BADRI PATARKATSISHVILI’S GHOST PARTIES EMERGE IN GEORGIA

    Fugitive billionaire Badri Patarkatsishvili, who bankrolled the opposition groups’ regime-change campaign and helped incite it through his Imedi Television, is launching a new political project in Georgia from abroad. Patarkatsishvili

    NABUCCO PROJECT APPROACHING A REAL START

    Germany’s Rheinisch- Westfaelische Elektrizitaetswerk (RWE) has joined the EU- and US-supported Nabucco pipeline project for Caspian gas to Europe. RWE is Germany’s largest energy company overall and second-largest gas distributor.

    OMV JOINS WITH GAZPROM TO UNDERCUT NABUCCO

    On January 25 Austria’s state-dominated OMV energy company and Russia’s Gazprom signed an agreement to turn the Baumgarten gas transmission center near Vienna into a joint venture. Owned 100% by

    RUSSIA CAPTURES SERBIA’S ENERGY SECTOR

    On January 25 in Moscow, President Vladimir Putin and Serbian leaders witnessed the signing of agreements to hand over Serbia’s entire gas and oil sectors to Russia’s Gazprom at one

    TWO SETBACKS FOR THE KREMLIN AT THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE

    On January 21 the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) protected its reputation by eschewing the election of Mikhail Margelov as PACE president. Apparently, many members realized that PACE could

    VAN DER LINDEN’S FAREWELL DEAL WITH PUTIN

    On January 17 Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe (PACE) President Rene van der Linden paid a farewell visit to Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin. With van der

    OSCE’S DEMOCRACY AGENDA SET BACK AT YEAR-END MEETING

    President Vladimir Putin’s November 30 decree, suspending Russia’s participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, was one of several Kremlin-inflicted humiliations of the OSCE during the organization’s year-end

    MORE UNANSWERED QUESTIONS ABOUT IMEDI TELEVISION

    Unanswered questions persist and are even multiplying about the relationship between Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation and Imedi Television, the vehicle of Georgian tycoon and presidential contender Badri Patarkatsishvili. Co-owned by

    WEST RACING RUSSIA FOR TURKMEN GAS

    On November 23 in Ashgabat, Russian Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov and Gazprom president Alexei Miller held tense talks with Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimukhamedov on joint gas projects. The Russians goaded

    REOPENING IMEDI TV: NOT WHETHER, BUT HOW

    The state of emergency was lifted in Georgia on November 16, but the pro-opposition Imedi Television remains sealed off by the authorities, its broadcasts temporarily suspended, under decisions by the

    RUSSIA-LED BLOC EMERGES IN OSCE

    Moscow is lining up the member countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) -- Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan -- in a Russia-led bloc within the Organization

    BADRI PATARKATSISHVILI’S GEORGIA OPERATION

    Georgia reckons with the possibility of Russian hostile operations between November 2007 and April 2008 in connection with four major political deadlines: First and second, Russia’s parliamentary and presidential elections

    GEORGIAN OPPOSITION ON A FREE RIDE, part two

    Billionaire businessman Badri Patarkatsishvili has turned his Imedi Television, which broadcasts across the country, into a stronghold of political opposition to the government. Along with that move in 2006, he

    GEORGIAN OPPOSITION ON A FREE RIDE

    On Friday, November 2, at least 50,000 people (as estimated by most local and foreign observers at the scene) demonstrated in downtown Tbilisi for regime change and early presidential elections

    GEORGIAN RADICAL OPPOSITION FANCYING REGIME CHANGE

    Georgian opposition parties held demonstrations last week and this in Kutaisi and Batumi, respectively, and plan a mass protest rally in Tbilisi for November 2 during a high-level international gathering

    POLITICAL GAME OF KING-MAKING IN GEORGIA

    Restoring the monarchy in Georgia has become a declared goal of the United Opposition, an umbrella of numerous small parties. Their leaders have quickly moved from the slogan “Georgia Without

    UN SECURITY COUNCIL EXPANDS UNOMIG MANDATE TO KODORI

    The United Nations Security Council has approved a routine prolongation of the U.N. Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) mandate to operate in Abkhazia (United Nations, Report of the Secretary-General, October

    VORONIN PROPOSES FULL DEMILITARIZATION OF MOLDOVA

    Interviewed in the inaugural issue of Izvestiya’s local supplement, Izvestiya v Moldove, Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin proposes full demilitarization of Moldova on both banks of the Nistru River. He envisions

    KAZAKHSTAN’S OIL EXPORT PICTURE DETAILED

    At last week’s energy summit of Baltic, Black Sea, and Caspian countries, hosted by Lithuania in Vilnius (see EDM, October 12), Kazakhstan’s Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Sauat Mynbayev provided

    VILNIUS ENERGY SUMMIT INSTITUTIONALIZING A PROCESS

    Presidents and other top officials from the three Baltic states, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, joined by EU and U.S. officials, attended the Energy Security Conference on October 10-11

    GAZPROM THREATENS TO REDUCE SUPPLIES TO UKRAINE

    On October 2 Gazprom warned Ukraine via mass media that it would reduce gas deliveries from November onwfard, unless Ukraine pays $1.3 billion dollar worth of arrears to Gazprom. According

    RUSSIA SETTING UP “COLLECTIVE PEACEKEEPING“ FORCES

    On October 2 Russia’s Nikolai Bordyuzha, secretary-general of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, told mass media that the CSTO is creating its own “peacekeeping” forces. The member countries are Russia,

    INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE HELD IN SOUTH OSSETIA

    On September 21 Georgia organized an international conference within South Ossetia about that conflict. It was the first event of this type ever held in any post-Soviet conflict area, and

    NABUCCO GAS PIPELINE PROJECT IS BACK ON TRACK

    All players involved in the Nabucco gas pipeline project got their act together at a conference on September 14-15 in Budapest. The European Union demonstrated for the first time a

    SHELL OFFERS A BOUNTY IN GERMANY TO ROSNEFT

    According to Russian and German media reports, Royal Dutch Shell offers its stake in Germany’s largest oil-industry complex, MIRO, to Russia’s Rosneft, in return for Shell “access” to a field

    BULGARIA SEDUCED BY SOUTH STREAM GAS PROJECT?

    Bulgarian authorities seem to regard Russia’s South Stream project for gas transport to Europe as a great opportunity for the designated transit country, Bulgaria. The South Stream pipeline would run

    BULGARIA’S AMBITIONS FOR CASPIAN OIL TRANSIT

    On September 10 Bulgarian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ivailo Kalfin outlined the country’s goals to join transport corridors for Caspian oil and gas. Kalfin spoke in the wake of an

    SCHROEDER’S MESSAGE TO EUROPE FROM MOSCOW

    On September 8 in Moscow, former German chancellor and current Gazprom official Gerhard Schroeder launched the Russian edition of his memoirs, courtesy again of Gazprom. Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister

    SHORTFALLS IN RUSSIAN OIL DELIVERIES TO GERMANY

    Russian oil deliveries to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline fell abruptly in the month of August by some 30%. Lukoil is mainly responsible for the deliberate reduction in supplies that

    A NEW FACE OF MOLDOVAN POLITICS

    A fragile political consensus -- also known as parliamentary partnership -- on the terms set in 2005 persists in Moldova’s parliament at this time. Its preservation is creditable to the

    TRANSNISTRIA SETTLEMENT AND POLITICAL POWER IN MOLDOVA

    In his marathon-length speeches on July 20 and 25, defending his non-transparent negotiations with Russia on Transnistria (see EDM, July 27), Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin assailed all of Moldova’s non-communist

    KREMLIN WOULD RE-WRITE OR KILL CFE TREATY

    On July 14 Russia notified the 29 other state parties to the 1990 Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) as well as other countries of Russia’s decision to suspend

    MOSCOW DERAILS WESTERN POLICY ON KOSOVO

    Russia has forced the United States and European Union to blink in the standoff over Kosovo. Unable to overcome Moscow’s stonewalling in the U.N. Security Council and apparently losing the

    FROM SCHROEDER TO STOIBER?

    Russian President Vladimir Putin received Edmund Stoiber, the head of Bavaria’s government and chairman of Germany’s conservative Christian-Social Union (CSU, Bavarian wing of Germany’s governing Christian-Democrat/Christian Social Union), on July

    GEORGIAN FLAG RAISED OVER AKHALKALAKI

    The flag of Georgia has been flying over the Akhalkalaki military base since June 27, with Georgian troops moving onto the base to replace the last Russian troops. The commander

    SOUTH OSSETIAN LEADER CHOOSES EUROPE

    Dmitry Sanakoyev, leader of the Tbilisi-backed provisional administrative unit in South Ossetia, visited Brussels on June 24-26 for informal introductory talks with representatives of European institutions, diplomatic missions, and think

    SOUTH STREAM: GAZPROM’S NEW MEGA PROJECT

    On June 23 in Rome, ENI Chief Executive Paolo Scaroni and Gazprom Vice-Chairman Alexander Medvedev signed a memorandum of understanding to build a gas pipeline from Russia to Italy --

    NEO-COMINTERN MEETING IN TIRASPOL

    Meeting in Tiraspol on June 17, “foreign ministers” Valery Litskay of Transnistria, Sergei Shamba of Abkhazia, and Murat Jioyev of South Ossetia, as well as Karabakh “presidential” foreign policy adviser

    GUAM AT TEN

    Heads of state and governments of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova -- the GUAM group of countries -- met June 18-19 in Baku, together with the presidents of Romania, Poland,

    TRANSNEFT ON A ROLL

    In a wide-ranging news conference during the Economic Forum just held in St. Petersburg (Interfax, June 10), Transneft president Semyon Vainshtok outlined the state pipeline monopoly’s ambitious plans for internal

    MOLDOVA’S PRESIDENT CORNERED BY PUTIN

    Concern is mounting in Chisinau, Brussels, and Washington -- to name only the main decision-making centers -- that Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin is willing to be cajoled into a bad

    GAZPROM ACHIEVES AN ANSCHLUSS OF AUSTRIA

    Russian President Vladimir Putin’s May 23-24 visit to Austria laid the ground for that country’s integration into Gazprom’s rapidly expanding network of dependencies. By the same token, it dealt a

    MOSCOW CONFRONTS THE WEST OVER CFE TREATY AT OSCE

    Russian officials are intensifying their warnings about scuttling the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE), unless the West brings the adapted but unratified treaty into force while accepting the

    GAZPROM TAKING OVER THE PIPELINES IN BELARUS

    On May 18 in Minsk, Russia’s Gazprom and the Belarus government’s State Property Committee signed agreements to turn the Belarus state-owned gas pipeline company Beltransgaz into a Russia-Belarus joint company.

    KAZAKHSTAN’S GROWING GAS EXPORTS TO GO RUSSIA’S WAY

    The rival energy summits, just held by pro-Western countries in Krakow and Russia-led countries in Astana and Turkmenbashi (see EDM, May 14-16), illustrated Kazakhstan’s accelerated drift into Russian-controlled, Eurasia-wide energy

    RUSSIAN STRATEGY, EU DRIFT IN ESTONIA

    Russia’s ongoing political offensive against Estonia -- and implicit challenge to the European Union -- constitutes the first serious attempt to reverse the post-1991 status quo in Europe. Moscow seems

    NATO AND U.S. RALLY SUPPORT FOR ESTONIA

    Responding to Russia’s bullying of Estonia (see EDM, April 27, May 1, 3) the U.S. White House has invited Estonian President Toomas Ilves to meet with U.S. President George W.

    RUSSIA BEGINS CYBER ATTACKS AGAINST ESTONIAN GOVERNMENT

    The Kremlin’s assault on Estonia is intensifying on four levels of varying sophistication. These include: cyber attacks from within Russia’s Presidential Administration against the Estonian presidency’s and government’s electronic communications;

    ALIEN VANDALISM IN ESTONIA’S CAPITAL

    The city of Tallinn is assessing the damage after two consecutive nights of violent rioting by gangs of mostly young local Russians. The third night passed relatively quietly. Ostensibly triggered

    GEORGIA CREATING ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT IN SOUTH OSSETIA

    Last November’s election of a Tbilisi-backed administration under Dmitry Sanakoyev in parts of South Ossetia has resulted in a dual-power situation, challenging the Moscow-installed Tskhinvali authorities to a contest for

    KOSOVO: RUSSIA’S FIFTH FROZEN CONFLICT?

    To continue freezing the resolution of the four post-Soviet secessionist conflicts, Russia needs a fifth frozen conflict in Kosovo and a linkage to make resolution of one dependent on resolution

    TOWARD A RUSSIA-LED CARTEL FOR GAS?

    Proposals for the Gas-Exporting Countries’ Forum to consider the possibility of forming a cartel have in recent weeks been aired by the presidents of Russia, Iran, and Algeria, as well

    LUKOIL AT THE CROSSROADS

    The destruction of Yukos by the Russian state left Lukoil as Russia’s largest oil company not controlled by the Kremlin, though of necessity loyal to it and often in its

    TURNING THE BALTIC SEA INTO A SECOND BOSPORUS?

    The Russian government recently declared its intention to turn the Baltic Sea into an oil-shipping corridor to Western Europe, carrying up to 150 million tons of Russian oil annually aboard

    BELGIUM – GAZPROM’S NEXT “HUB” IN EUROPE?

    European Union host country Belgium traditionally has been an advocate of EU integration. But its latest actions illustrate the absence of an EU energy policy and the member countries’ growing

    SECESSIONIST LEADERS COORDINATE ACTIVITIES IN MOSCOW

    Between February 16 and 21, the “presidents” of South Ossetia and Transnistria and the “foreign ministers” of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria paid overlapping visits to Moscow for talks with

    GAZPROM’S CLOCK TICKING ON BP’S KOVYTKA PROJECT

    Gazprom and the Kremlin look poised for another forced takeover of major Western assets in Russia’s energy sector. On January 29, Nature Inspectorate (RosPrirodNadzor) deputy chief Oleg Mitvol announced that

    LUKASHENKA REDOUBLES OVERTURES TO THE WEST

    Addressing a Minsk academic forum on January 26, President Alexander Lukashenka in fact had the European Union in mind for much of his speech, clearly signaling a turnabout from his

    A KOSOVO “PRECEDENT” CUTS BOTH WAYS

    Just ahead of Serbia’s parliamentary elections, which were held yesterday, January 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin weighed in to encourage Serb nationalist forces on the pivotal issue of Kosovo. Putin

    RUSSIA CHANGES TERMS OF OIL SUPPLY TO BELARUS

    On January 12 in Moscow, Prime Ministers Mikhail Fradkov of Russia and Syarhey Sidorski of Belarus inked agreements on oil supplies and transit, eliminating part of Russia’s hidden subsidies to

    SHELL FORCED TO CAPITULATE TO PUTIN

    A two-part deal -- one publicized on December 21 and thereafter, the other confidential but leaked by Moscow on December 28 -- has sealed Gazprom’s seizure of the majority stake

    NEW COMPLICATIONS IN UKRAINE’S ENERGY SITUATION

    Indications are multiplying that the Ukrainian government is abandoning a project to extend the Odessa-Brody pipeline into Poland as a route for Kazakhstani oil outside Russian control. Instead, the Ukrainian

    ODESSA-BRODY-EUROPE OIL TRANSPORT PROJECT SHELVED INDEFINITELY

    Information released following the December 10-11 session of the Ukraine-Kazakhstan Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation suggests that Russia has successfully forced an indefinite postponement of the Odessa-Brody-Plock oil transport project.

    TRANS-BLACK SEA PIPELINE CAN BRING CASPIAN GAS TO EUROPE

    A New York-based consortium of several independent parties is completing the pre-feasibility study for a Georgia-Ukraine-European Union (GUEU) gas pipeline project. Led by the London-based Pipeline Systems Engineering (PSE) and

    ALTERNATIVE SOUTH OSSETIAN LEADER INAUGURATED

    On December 1 Dmitry Sanakoyev was inaugurated as alternative South Ossetian leader and announced the formation of an alternative local administration in Georgian and mixed Ossetian-Georgian areas of South Ossetia.

    MOSCOW HOSTS THREE SECESSIONIST LEADERS

    Sergei Bagapsh, Eduard Kokoiti, and Igor Smirnov, Russian-installed leaders respectively of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria, conferred with Russian government officials in Moscow on November 16-18, held a joint news

    PRO-OSSETIAN AUTHORITIES EMERGING IN SOUTH OSSETIA

    The Tbilisi-backed Union for National Salvation of Ossetians (UNSO) conducted its own referendum and presidential election in South Ossetia on November 12, as an alternative to the referendum and election

    PUTIN-LUKASHENKA MEETING SHATTERS

    As anticipated (see EDM, November 8), Belarus President Alexander Lukashenka’s meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow on November 10 ended in disagreement on the full range of

    GAZPROM’S “PURE COMMERCE” IN GEORGIA

    Gazprom’s deputy chairman and head of Gazexport, Alexander Medvedev, confirmed on November 7 the price hike to $230 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas to Georgia in 2007, up from

    ARMENIA SELLING MORE INFRASTRUCTURE, INDUSTRY TO RUSSIA

    In his November 6 news conference, Armenia’s de facto strongman and presidential aspirant Serge Sarkisian welcomed the just-consummated purchase of the Armentel telecommunications company by the Russian giant Vympelcom. Sarkisian

    RUSSIA CEMENTS CONTROL OF ARMENIA’S ENERGY SYSTEM

    President Robert Kocharian’s October 30-November 1 working visit to the Kremlin sealed arrangements to deepen Russian control of Armenia’s gas and electricity supply systems. Under these arrangements, Gazprom is de

    MOSCOW SHOWING BELARUS THE ENERGY WHIP

    Gazprom’s threat to quadruple the price of gas to Belarus after December 31 to $200 per 1,000 cubic meters was meant to force Minsk into ceding 50% ownership of the

    MOSCOW RAISES GAS PRICE TO UKRAINE

    Meeting in Kyiv on October 24, Prime Ministers Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine and Mikhail Fradkov of Russia authorized the signing of agreements whereby 55 billion cubic meters of “Central Asian”

    PUTIN’S LOGIC ON GEORGIA AND THE FROZEN CONFLICTS

    Russian President Vladimir Putin’s remarks during the European Union-Russia informal summit in Lahti, Finland, on October 20 underscored some major theses -- often confusing to the West -- behind Russia’s

    TWO MEETINGS, TWO TONES IN GUAM

    Delegates of the GUAM member countries -- Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova -- held a meeting of their own during the October 17 Minsk session of the Commonwealth of Independent States

    CIS ATROPHY PROCESS CONTINUES

    The 15th, “jubilee” Commonwealth of Independent States summit of heads of state was to have been held in Minsk on October 16-17. However, it transpired as late as October 10

    SOLANA BLINKS, DEEPLY

    The European Union’s High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, opined in a European Parliament hearing that international recognition of Kosovo’s independence from Serbia could set “a

    UKRAINE IN SEARCH OF A REGIONAL POLICY

    Ukraine’s independence from Russia is the single largest geopolitical gain to the free world and Ukraine’s neighbors, resulting from what Russian President Vladimir Putin bemoans as “the 20th century’s greatest

    ILVES WINS ESTONIA’S PRESIDENCY

    Toomas Hendrik Ilves won Estonia’s presidency on September 23 by the narrowest possible margin, with 174 votes in his favor -- just one vote more than the 173 necessary --

    ESTONIA: WHY NOT THE BEST?

    Estonia’s presidential election tomorrow, September 23, involves more than just a choice between Arnold Ruutel and Toomas Hendrik Ilves. In a more profound sense, this election can decide whether or

    UKRAINE: BACK TO STRATEGIC SQUARE ONE

    Cohabitation of the Party of Regions with a minority Orange faction and a Regions-dominated government would seem to mark a shift in Ukraine’s foreign policy paradigm: from the Euro-Atlantic orientation

    EU’S ENERGY POLICY: A QUEST FOR RELEVANCE

    The relevance of any EU energy policy will hinge on clearly identifying the mounting risks, with an uninhibited analysis of Russia’s manifold challenges, and calling for the development of an

    SEVEN RUSSIAN CHALLENGES TO THE WEST’S ENERGY SECURITY

    Russia’s challenge to Western energy security has grown almost explosively in recent months along seven dimensions: 1. Seemingly unchecked growth of the European market share captured by Russia’s state-connected energy

    ENERGY SECURITY AS A EURO-ATLANTIC CONCERN

    The European Commission is expecting comments this month before finalizing its draft Energy Security Paper for publication. Russia’s manifold challenges to Western energy security are confronting head-on the European Union’s

    YANUKOVYCH COLD-SHOULDERED ON FIRST VISIT TO RUSSIA

    Ukraine’s new prime minister, Viktor Yanukovych, paid his first visit abroad in that capacity on August 15-16 to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Sochi. The visit’s results are inconclusive,

    RUSSIAN OIL SUPPLIES TO LITHUANIA CUT OFF

    Since July 29, Russia’s oil pipeline monopoly Transneft has stopped deliveries to Lithuania’s Mazeikiai refinery, the largest economic entity in that country and sole refinery in the Baltic states. Transneft’s

    MOSCOW UNLEASHES A MOUNTAIN CHIEFTAIN AGAINST GEORGIA

    Russian authorities, having recently co-opted Kodori Gorge chieftain Emzar Kvitsiani, are now unleashing him against Georgia. The Georgian free mass media as well as Russia’s unfree ones are amply disseminating

    MOSCOW’S ANTI-GEORGIAN AGITPROP TARGETS WASHINGTON

    Responding to Georgia’s call for the replacement of Russian “peacekeeping” troops by international police (see EDM, July 20), Moscow now accuses Georgia of a premeditated intent to launch military operations

    DEZINFORMATSIYA ALIVE BUT TRANSPARENT

    Two forgeries now circulating in Europe and North America bear the classic imprint of Soviet disinformation, presented, however, in modern-looking packaging developed by Modest Kolerov’s department of the presidential administration

    CSTO SUMMIT: MILITARY BLOC NOT YET CEMENTED

    Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia, Alexander Lukashenka of Belarus, Robert Kocharian of Armenia, Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, Kurmanbek Bakiyev of Kyrgyzstan, Imomali Rahmonov of Tajikistan, and Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan

    UKRAINE’S GAS PREDICAMENT WORSENING

    One year ago today (see EDM, June 22, 2005), Moscow’s preparations for a late-autumn gas attack on Ukraine could already be detected. The early alert hardly registered in official Kyiv

    BLACK SEA FORUM SEEKING ITS RATIONALE

    Presidents Traian Basescu of Romania, Vladimir Voronin of Moldova, Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine, Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia, Robert Kocharian of Armenia, and Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan were joined by senior

    KYRGYZSTAN RELENTING ON U.S. AIR BASE

    On May 31-June 2 in Bishkek, American and Kyrgyz negotiators made some progress toward a possible agreement to prolong the use of the Manas air base by U.S. and allied

    GUAM IN KYIV: ANOTHER SUMMIT OF GOOD INTENTIONS

    Presidents Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia, Vladimir Voronin of Moldova, and Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine met on May 23 in Kyiv for another effort to revitalize the

    RUSSIAN INFLUENCE ON THE UPSWING IN KYRGYZSTAN

    On May 19, President Kurmanbek Bakiyev told a visiting group of international journalists that Kyrgyz authorities would go ahead with the plan to ask the United States to vacate the

    BELARUS SEEKS TO EMULATE GERMAN-GAZPROM DEALS

    President Alexander Lukashenka's government in Belarus is drawing inspiration from German companies' emergent model of relations with Russia's Gazprom, a model blessed by the German government as well and antithetical

    PUTIN MARKS ZERO-SUM WIN WITH KARIMOV IN SOCHI

    Uzbek President Islam Karimov's May 12 meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Sochi marks a further stage in Russia's successful exploitation of Uzbekistan's unnecessary alienation from the United

    KYIV ALSO GLANCING AT EXIT FROM CIS

    While Tbilisi seems prepared to leave the Commonwealth of Independent States altogether (see EDM, May 11), Kyiv is reducing its own participation in the organization to almost nil, while maximizing

    GEORGIA NEAR EXIT FROM CIS

    The presidents and other officials of Georgia and Ukraine have announced in recent days that they are considering the possibility of their countries' quitting the Commonwealth of Independent States or

    A MURKY MEETING IN MOSCOW ON MOLDOVA

    The United States and European Union are maintaining full secrecy over the April 19 Moscow meeting on Moldova. The Russian and Ukrainian Ministries of Foreign Affairs, the EU's Special Representative

    CIS SPLIT AT MINISTERIAL CONFERENCE

    The meeting of ministers of foreign affairs of the Commonwealth of Independent States member countries, held on April 21 in Moscow, exposed a profound split in the organization. Ukraine, Moldova,

    MOMENT OF TRUTH IN KYRGYZSTAN FOR U.S. POLICY

    American strategic and democratic interests in Kyrgyzstan are increasingly coming under pressure, one year after the purported democratic "Tulip Revolution" in that country. Russian influence and that of local organized

    GAZPROM SQUEEZING BELARUS

    Addressing an international energy conference on April 4-5 in Moscow, Gazprom Vice-Chairman Alexander Ryazanov threatened to raise the price of gas to Belarus to "at least triple the present level"

    BLESSING ARMENIA’S DEBT SERVITUDE

    On March 31 in Moscow, the Foundation for the Orthodox Peoples' Unity bestowed its annual award on Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Russia's Gazprom company for their support to Russian

    LITHUANIA MAY NATIONALIZE MAZEIKIAI OIL COMPLEX

    While Gazprom is rapidly making inroads into Europe's gas infrastructure (see EDM, March 13, 21), Russian authorities are now targeting oil assets on EU territory in Lithuania for takeover by

    UN SECURITY COUNCIL SHUTS EYES AND EARS TO GEORGIA

    At Moscow's request, the United Nations Security Council excluded Georgia from the March 28 session that discussed prolonging the mandate of the United Nations Missions of Observers in Georgia. UNOMIG

    GEORGIA EXTRICATING FROM GAZPROM’S BEAR HUG

    The winter now ending was almost certainly the last one during which Georgia had to face Gazprom's commercial blackmail and supply cutoffs. Within the coming months, Georgia will begin receiving

    BIDDING FOR YUKOS ASSETS IN LITHUANIA

    The bidding is officially on for the Yukos company's last remaining major asset -- the Mazeikiai oil refinery and associated enterprises in Lithuania. Those enterprises, including the Butinge oil loading

    KYIV REOPENING THE DOOR TO ROSUKRENERGO

    Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and some government authorities seem again to endorse the deeply damaging gas deals signed on January 4 and February 2 with Gazprom's shadowy offshoot RosUkrEnergo. Yushchenko

    ROSUKRENERGO SNEAKING BACK INTO UKRAINE

    Pending the March 26 parliamentary elections, official Kyiv has shelved the deeply damaging gas deals it signed on January 4 and February 2 with Gazprom and its offshoot RosUkrEnergo. President

    RUSSIA HINTING IT MAY ESCALATE TRANSNISTRIA STANDOFF

    A Kremlin-dispatched interagency delegation has completed a three-day visit to Transnistria, hinting that it would recommend strong Russian countermeasures against the international trading regime just introduced by Ukraine and Moldova

    UKRAINE STEPS IN TO CLOSE EUROPE’S BIGGEST BLACK HOLE

    Ukraine has finally begun cooperating with Moldova and the European Union against rampant unlawful trade across the Transnistria sector of the Ukraine-Moldova border. That 450-kilometer sector, Europe's largest "black hole,"

    SOLANA GAFFE OVERSHADOWS FAILURE OF 5+2 NEGOTIATIONS

    The European Union's High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, has unexpectedly redefined the nature of the conflict in Transnistria with a single phrase. Interviewed in the

    ROSNEFT EXPANDING ITS ROLE IN KAZAKHSTAN

    The chairman of Russia's state oil company Rosneft, Sergei Bogdanchikov, has completed a round of discussions in Kazakhstan with Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Daniyal Akhmetov, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Baktykozha

    PUTIN IN AZERBAIJAN

    Russian President Vladimir Putin paid an official visit to Azerbaijan on February 21-22, presumably to inaugurate the "Year of Russia in Azerbaijan 2006" celebration, following the "Year of Azerbaijan in

    MOSCOW STUNG BY GEORGIAN RESOLUTION ON SOUTH OSSETIA

    Predictably, Moscow has unleashed a psychological warfare offensive in response to the Georgian Parliament's February 15 resolution on replacing Russia's "peacekeeping" operation in South Ossetia with an international peacekeeping operation

    RUSSIA AUGMENTING AIR BASE IN KYRGYZSTAN

    Russia's Air Force commander-in-chief General Vladimir Mikhailov, along with Security Council Deputy Secretary Yuri Zubakov and CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Secretary-General Nikolai Bordyuzha, held talks February 16-18 in

    MOSCOW CHANGES TACTICS IN UKRAINE

    According to as yet unconfirmed but largely credible reports on February 2 from Kyiv, officials in the presidency and government have authorized the immediate signing of a gas agreement and

    CRISIS OF UKRAINE’S STATE INSTITUTIONS

    The Kremlin's "gas attack" on Ukraine exploited an ongoing crisis of state institutions in that country and exacerbated the crisis almost to the point of meltdown. This situation undermines the

    PUTIN-KOCHARIAN LOVE FEST CONCEALS REAL PROBLEMS

    Russia's gas price hike to Armenia, demands for property in return for temporary price relief, supply cuts following the pipeline blasts in the North Caucasus, unilateral Russian announcements about adding

    PUTIN OFFERS TO SHORE UP A WEAKENED YUSHCHENKO

    Russian President Vladimir Putin is shifting tactics toward Ukraine. Following the "gas attack" designed to produce regime change in Ukraine at the upcoming parliamentary elections, Putin is now apparently moving

    GAZPROM HALTS GAS SUPPLIES TO MOLDOVA

    On January 1, Russia's Gazprom imposed a total halt on gas deliveries to Moldova. The management in Moscow issued an internal order to its dispatchers on Ukraine's territory to reduce

    KREMLIN STOPS GAS DELIVERIES TO UKRAINE

    Authorized by President Vladimir Putin, Gazprom halted deliveries of Russian gas to Ukraine as of 10 am Moscow time on January 1. To maximize the political impact in Ukraine, Russia's

    EUROPEAN UNION’S CFSP UNRAVELS AT OSCE

    The OSCE's year-end ministerial conference on December 5-6 witnessed the unraveling of the European Union's Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). The unraveling was so far-reaching that not even the

    MOLDOVAN EXPERTS BLAST RUSSIA-OSCE MILITARY PLAN

    In the run-up to the OSCE's year-end conference, which began yesterday, December 5, the organization's Moldova Mission made public on November 29 in Chisinau the hitherto secret package of force-reduction

    EUROPEAN UNION DEPLOYS FIRST BORDER MONITORING MISSION

    The European Union's High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, and EU External Affairs Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner joined the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and

    END-GAME NEGOTIATIONS AT OSCE PRESAGE YEAR-END ABDICATION

    Secretive, end-game negotiations at OSCE headquarters in Vienna, one week before the year-end ministerial conference, demonstrate that Russia (not without assistance from a few countries) is successfully destroying the organization's

    KERIMLI BATTLE-CRY SPARKS MELEE IN BAKU

    An emotional outburst by Popular Front of Azerbaijan Party (PFAP) leader Ali Kerimli, urging confrontation with the police, turned the opposition's lawful, peaceful November 26 post-election protest rally into a

    UZBEKISTAN: ENTER RUSSIA

    The alliance treaty of Russia and Uzbekistan, signed on November 14 in Moscow, painfully illustrates Washington's declining plausibility as a buttress of security and stability in Central Asian perceptions, particularly

    UZBEKISTAN: EXIT AMERICA

    Tashkent's now-official switch of alliances completes the reversal of a cycle that had begun with Uzbekistan's attendance at NATO's 1999 Washington summit, its abandonment of the CIS Collective Security Treaty

    “MULTICULTURALISM” FORUM GATHERS MOSCOW’S SUPPORTERS

    On October 15 in Moscow, officials from the presidential administration and other Kremlin-connected figures hosted a "Forum on Democracy and Multiculturalism in the Euro-East." The participants included representatives of Abkhazia,

    CHANCE MISSED TO SAVE KARSHI-KHANABAD

    On September 27-28, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried headed an interagency delegation to Tashkent on the first leg of a Central Asian tour. A hoped-for Uzbek consent to

    GAZPROM FIRMING UP ITS HOLD ON CENTRAL ASIAN GAS

    Interviewed in the current issue of the journal Gazprom, the company's Vice-Chairman Alexander Ryazanov announces the imminent creation of a Russian-Kazakh joint venture to process gas from Kazakhstan in Russia.

    ARMED SEPARATISM SHOWCASED IN SOUTH OSSETIA

    On September 19-20 in Tskhinvali, South Ossetian authorities led celebrations of the 15th anniversary of the declaration of secession from Georgia. Although the September 20, 1990, declaration and some subsequent

    A “PARALLEL CIS” IN DEMOCRATIC PACKAGING

    Representatives of Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Karabakh held a conference on "A Parallel CIS" on September 15-16 in Moscow. The gathering differed from previous ones in that it was

    RUSSIAN-ARMENIAN MILITARY EXERCISE ANACHRONISTIC

    On September 10-13, Russia and Armenia conducted a tactical military exercise at the Marshal Bagramian training grounds, close to the Armenian-Turkish border. President Robert Kocharian and other Armenian officials attended

    PUTIN-SCHROEDER GAS DEAL TIMED TO GERMAN ELECTIONS

    Ten days ahead of Germany's parliamentary elections, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and Russian President Vladimir Putin attended on September 8 in Berlin the signing of a framework agreement to construct a

    RUSSO-GERMAN GAS PACT IN THE BALTICS

    On September 8 in Berlin, top executives of Russia's Gazprom and Germany's BASF and E.ON companies signed the framework agreement on the North European Gas Pipeline (NEGP) project. President Vladimir

    NATO EXPANDING ITS ROLE IN AFGHANISTAN

    The NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has completed the deployment of additional forces in northern and western Afghanistan to support the holding of elections to the National Assembly and

    IMPLICATIONS OF CHINA’S TAKEOVER OF PETROKAZAKHSZTAN

    The state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation's (CNPC) more-than-friendly takeover of the PetroKazakhstan company would, if consummated, signify yet another setback to U.S. and European energy interests in Central Asia. The

    OSCE AS SECURITY ACTOR: AT WHAT PRICE ?

    Two special conferences in Vienna this week and next are meant to ponder the "OSCE's future" and ways to make it "more effective" -- euphemisms for managing the organization's crisis.

    ANTICLIMACTIC END TO KYRGYZ REVOLUTION

    Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's August 14 inauguration demonstrated that Western expectations and Russian fears of a democratic revolution in Kyrgyzstan were equally misplaced. By the same token, the inauguration and

    “PEACEKEEPERS” IN ABKHAZIA ARE OTHERWISE ENGAGED

    Lt.-General Valery Yevnevich, responsible for "peacekeeping" operations as deputy commander-in-chief of Russia's Ground Forces, commented on the withdrawal from Georgia, "Russia does not withdraw, it consolidates." While Yevnevich is posted

    ABKHAZ DERAIL RAILROAD TALKS

    Abkhaz leaders have derailed the tripartite talks on rehabilitating the railroad between Russia and Georgia in Abkhazia that were scheduled to begin in Sukhumi on August 9. The group of

    UKRAINE OIL UPDATE

    Ukraine's presidency and government are moving on three fronts to alleviate the country's overdependence on Russian oil supplies and Russian-owned refining capacities. Kyiv is set participate in launching the Odessa-Brody

    THE CONSPIRATOR AS BRAGGART

    On August 4 and 5, Azerbaijani television channels screened a videotape of a meeting held on July 29 in Tbilisi between Ruslan Bashirli, leader of the Baku-based Yeni Fikir (New

    U.S. REVIEWING OPTIONS IN CENTRAL ASIA

    Faced with restrictions on the use of its air base in Uzbekistan and, now, an eviction notice (see EDM, August 4), the United States is looking for alternative or substitute

    IS UZBEKISTAN BURNING ITS BRIDGES WITH THE U.S.?

    On August 3, Uzbek state media announced that the government had asked the United States to vacate the Karshi-Khanabad air base and withdraw its military units from Uzbekistan. The government

    PUTIN’S ANTI-BALTIC MONOLOGUE REBUFFED

    In an unprecedented development, a European head of state has publicly and outspokenly refuted Russian President Vladimir Putin's accusations that Estonia and Latvia oppress their Russian residents. Most European officials

    TASHKENT ASKS U.S. TO CLOSE AIR BASE

    On July 29, Uzbekistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs delivered a note to the U.S. Embassy in Tashkent, asking the United States to vacate the Karshi-Khanabad air base, withdraw the troops

    UKRAINE IN QUEST FOR IRANIAN GAS

    Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council Secretary, Petro Poroshenko, and Naftohaz Ukrainy chairman Oleksiy Ivchenko paid little-noted visits to Iran on July 14 and July 24-25, respectively. The visits in

    MOSCOW TARGETING YUKOS IN LITHUANIA

    As anticipated (see EDM, July 1), Russia has delivered to Lithuania an official request to prohibit transactions involving assets of the Yukos company on Lithuania's territory (ELTA, July 22). Those

    RUSSIA BOOSTING GAS EXPORT CAPACITY TO EUROPE

    Russia's Gazprom is moving rapidly to preempt potential competitors on European markets, far outpacing the European Union's development of a supply-diversification strategy. Gazprom will soon complete the first trunk line

    BALTIC SOLDIERS IN AFGHANISTAN

    Colonel Gintautas Zenkevicius, commander of the Lithuanian-led Provincial Reconstruction Team in Chaghcharan, Ghor province, western Afghanistan, announced on July 14 that the PRT has reached its initial operating capacity, as

    KOZAK PLAN RESURFACES UNDER OSCE COLORS

    Moldova/Transnistria topped the agenda of talks held by the OSCE's Chairman-in-Office, Dimitrij Rupel of Slovenia, with Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on July 13. In their

    SOUTH OSSETIA AUTHORITIES REJECT GEORGIA’S OLIVE BRANCH

    South Ossetia's pro-Moscow leaders have lost no time rejecting Georgia's offer for direct negotiations toward South Ossetian autonomy. President Mikheil Saakashvili's offer, unveiled at an international conference in Batumi on

    UKRAINE’S REPUTATION AT STAKE IN GAS TRADE WITH RUSSIA

    Interviewed on a Ukrainian television channel on July 1, Gazprom Vice-President Alexander Medvedev stated that the Russian side wants to go ahead with the Russian-Ukrainian-German understandings of 2003-2004 regarding ownership

    RUSSIA CANCELS BORDER TREATY, ASSAILS ESTONIA

    On June 27, merely six weeks after signing the border treaty with Estonia, Russia announced that it is revoking its signature, withdrawing from any obligations stipulated in that treaty, and

    FROM CIS TO CSTO: CAN A “CORE” BE PRESERVED?

    At the Moscow summit of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and in its wake, Russian officials have publicly acknowledged the fragmentation of the "post-Soviet space" and announced some

    THIS YEAR, UKRAINE’S GAS WOES BEGIN EARLY

    Ukraine's ability to pay for natural gas is already severely stressed on both the Russian and the Turkmen fronts. Ukraine's own, growing budget deficit has contributed to that stress. On

    BAKU-TBILISI-CEYHAN OIL PIPELINE INAUGURATED

    The first stage of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil export pipeline was officially inaugurated on May 25 at the Sangachal shore terminal, south of Baku. The presidents of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia,

    CONTEST MOVES FROM WESTERN TO EASTERN CASPIAN SHORE

    At the Baku inauguration events, President Nursultan Nazarbayev confirmed Kazakhstan's intention to develop a trans-Caspian oil transport system, linked to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. If achieved on the scale that

    MOSCOW SIGNS BORDER AGREEMENT WITH ESTONIA

    On May 18 in Moscow, Ministers of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov and Urmas Paet signed a long-awaited agreement on the Russia-Estonia border. The agreement had been initialed in 1996 and

    KYIV TAKES EMERGENCY STEPS TO COPE WITH FUEL CRISIS

    Ukraine's presidential administration and government are multiplying emergency measures in response to severe fuel shortages and prices hikes by an informal cartel of Russian suppliers (see EDM, May 18). Yesterday

    TRANS-CASPIAN OIL PIPELINE PLANNED IN KAZAKHSTAN

    A recent session of Kazakhstan's cabinet of ministers commissioned plans for creating a trans-Caspian westbound export route for Kazakhstani oil, bypassing Russia on the shortest route to consumer countries. Prime

    KREMLIN ASSAILS BALTIC STATES

    From the standpoint of Russia-West relations, perhaps the most consequential aspect of the May 9 anniversary celebrations in Moscow was the Kremlin's verbal assault on the Baltic states, amid complete

    CIS SUMMIT: DECORATIVE, YET ACRIMONIOUS

    Russian President Vladimir Putin and the presidents of nine other CIS member countries attended an informal CIS summit on May 8 in Moscow, as part of Russia's anniversary celebrations of

    KYRGYZ ACTING PRESIDENT OUTLINES REFORM PLANS

    Addressing the country on television on April 30, Kyrgyzstan's acting president, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, outlined a comprehensive program of constitutional and political changes to be achieved in the short and medium

    POROSHENKO PLAN STUNS NEIGHBORS, DISRUPTS GUAM

    Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Secretary Petro Poroshenko's conflict-resolution plan for Transnistria nearly derailed the GUAM summit in Chisinau (see EDM, April 25, 26, 27) and appeared to

    GUAM SUMMIT REVERBERATIONS

    The meeting of heads of state of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova -- the GUAM group of countries -- in Chisinau on April 22 reverberated beyond the GUAM region. Presidents

    GUAM REVIVAL SUMMIT INCONCLUSIVE

    Presidents Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia, Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine, Ilham Aliev of Azerbaijan, and Vladimir Voronin of Moldova -- the GUAM group of countries -- took part in the group's

    GUAM SUMMIT: A NEW LEASE ON LIFE (Part 2)

    The meeting of presidents of GUAM countries (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova) in Chisinau on April 21-22 has the potential to turn GUAM from a virtual into a real and possibly

    GUAM SUMMIT: A NEW LEASE ON LIFE (Part 1)

    The presidents of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova -- the GUAM group of countries -- will meet on April 21-22 in Chisinau to revitalize the dormant organization and, possibly, to

    BMO RIP; TAP STILLBORN

    On April 14 in Vienna, the OSCE's Permanent Council approved a Training Assistance Program (TAP) for Georgian Border Guards to replace the OSCE's Georgia Border Monitoring Operation (BMO). Russia had

    EU POLICY DISARRAY IN GEORGIA AND MOLDOVA

    Javier Solana's ill-prepared, mishap-filled visit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi (see EDM, April 11) culminated with an incident that was kept under wraps for some days before finally

    BALTIC STATES SEEKING NORMAL RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA

    While expecting Russia to come to terms with its recent history and their irreversible independence, the three Baltic states are initiating efforts to improve relations with Russia on the practical

    “CALL ME JAVIER”?

    For the second time in the space of one week, the Kremlin has embarrassed an unsuspecting European Union by holding parallel meetings on the settlement of frozen conflicts. While EU

    MOLDOVA’S POLITICAL SEA CHANGE

    Moldovan Communist President Vladimir Voronin's reelection with right-wing democratic support (see EDM, April 5) reflects a thoroughgoing transformation of Moldova's politics on three levels: that of the presidential team, of

    PUTIN OBITUARY FOR CIS

    Russian officials are performing some dialectical acrobatics in reinterpreting President Vladimir Putin's recent remarks in Yerevan, where Putin in essence pronounced the Commonwealth of Independent States to be defunct as

    Putin Obituary for CIS

    Russian officials are performing some dialectical acrobatics in reinterpreting President Vladimir Putin's recent remarks in Yerevan, where Putin in essence pronounced the Commonwealth of Independent States to be defunct as

    WHEN ETIQUETTE IS AN ALIEN CONCEPT

    "Etiquette" is a loan word in Russian, as in other languages, but the practice does not seem to have been borrowed along with the word by some Russian diplomats, particularly

    BALTIC SEA-BLACK SEA “AXIS” ADUMBRATED

    On an official visit to Kyiv on March 25-26, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and his Ukrainian counterpart, Viktor Yushchenko, used the term "Baltic Sea-Black Sea Axis," referring to countries pursuing

    NIYAZOV UNBENDING ON GAS PRICES TO RUSSIA AND UKRAINE

    On March 23, Gazprom officially acknowledged for the first time that Turkmenistan had ceased gas deliveries to Russia on January 1. Gazprom Vice-Chairman Alexander Ryazanov confirmed to Moscow journalists that

    SAAKASHVILI OFFERS TO GO TO KYRGYZSTAN AS MEDIATOR

    On March 22, as post-election violence and anarchy engulfed large parts of Kyrgyzstan, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili wrote an informal, personal letter to his Kyrgyz counterpart, Askar Akayev, offering to

    Putin in Kyiv

    On March 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a one-day working visit to Ukraine. The event was designed to signal a major improvement in the atmosphere of bilateral relations. For

    SECESSIONIST LEADERS PARADE IN MOSCOW

    Sergei Bagapsh, Eduard Kokoiti, and Arkady Gukasian, leaders respectively of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Karabakh, spent most of this week meeting with Russian officials in Moscow. They also held a

    SURGE OF INTEREST IN ODESSA-BRODY OIL PIPELINE

    Political transformation in Ukraine has reactivated international interest in using the Odessa-Brody oil pipeline in the originally intended northerly direction, which involves extending the pipeline into Poland to Plock and

    PRO-WESTERN GOVERNING COALITION POSSIBLE IN MOLDOVA

    On March 11, Moldova's Central Electoral Commission released the final results of the country's March 6 parliamentary elections. The outcome, verified by election observers in parallel vote-counting, shows the Communist

    BLACK SEA WATCH

    Romanian President Traian Basescu's just-completed first visit to Moscow occasioned discussion on a new proposal on Black Sea sub-regional security. The matter came up during Basescu's session with Russian President

    LITHUANIA TO LEAD NATO UNIT IN AFGHANISTAN

    Speaking at the high-level NATO conference in Munich on February 12-13, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld singled out for praise Lithuania's contribution to the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)

    TURKMEN GAS DELIVERIES TO RUSSIA ON HOLD

    With almost no public notice, Turkmenistan has virtually ceased deliveries of gas to Russia since January 1 due to disagreement over the price (Vremya novosti, February 9). Gazprom did not

    EUROPEAN UNION PUTS A TOE IN MOLDOVA

    Responding to Moldova's appeals after years of procrastination, the European Union has decided to institute an EU Special Representative to Moldova, with a focus on Transnistria conflict settlement (AP, February

    NEW GROUP OF GEORGIA’S FRIENDS FOUNDED

    Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria founded the "New Group of Georgia's Friends" on February 4 in Tbilisi. The specification "new" differentiates it from the decade-old "Group of Friends

    AZERBAIJAN’S PRESIDENT IN IRAN

    Some flowery rhetoric from Tehran notwithstanding, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliev's January 24-26 official visit to Iran turned out to be a routine event that confirmed the tension-free relations between neighboring

    CENTRAL ASIA GAS UPDATE

    Gas output data for 2004, just released by the three Central Asian producer countries, illustrate the region's underutilized potential as a supplier to the West, the absence of a Western

    BAGAPSH, KOKOITI, SMIRNOV TOUCH BASE IN MOSCOW

    On January 25-27, senior Russian officials conferred in Moscow with Igor Smirnov, Eduard Kokoiti, and Sergei Bagapsh and Raul Khajimba, Russian-installed leaders of Transnistria, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia, respectively. Although

    YUSHCHENKO IN MOSCOW

    On January 24, one day after his inauguration as President of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko paid a visit to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Yushchenko thus fulfilled a campaign promise to head

    MOSCOW THREATENS GEORGIA AS BUSH-PUTIN SUMMIT NEARS

    Testing the West's collective credibility, Russia is again fabricating pretexts for possible military action on Georgian territory, ostensibly to go after "Chechen and international terrorists" in the Pankisi Gorge. This

    UKRAINE HAS DONE ITS DUTY IN IRAQ

    On January 11-12, the U.S. State Department added an unnecessary complication to Ukrainian President-elect Viktor Yushchenko's internal political challenges. Questioning Ukraine's political decision to withdraw its 1,600 troops from Iraq,

    BALTIC DILEMMAS AND THE MOSCOW SUMMIT

    On January 12, Latvia's President Vaira Vike-Freiberga announced that she would be attending the VE-Day 60th anniversary summit to be held in May in Moscow. The issue is deeply controversial

    A BLURRED VISION IN BRUSSELS

    On January 5, Poland's leading newspaper, Gazeta Wyborcza, printed excerpts from the speech given by the European Parliament' President, Josep Borrell, to the previous day's closed-door session of the Forum

    ARMENIA TO DEPLOY TOKEN CONTINGENT TO IRAQ

    On December 24, the Armenian parliament approved a symbolic deployment of Armenian military personnel as part of the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq. The vote was 91-23, with one abstention, after

    AXING THE BMO, RUSSIA MENACES GEORGIA

    Using its veto power in the OSCE, Russia has carried out its threat to terminate the mandate of the organization's Georgia Border Monitoring Operation (BMO) as of December 31. This

    MOSCOW BLASTS MOLDOVA’S CALL FOR HELP

    Responding to Moldova's calls for Russian troop withdrawal and an international solution to the Transnistria conflict, Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has released a torrent of verbal abuse and warnings

    OSCE “REFORM” — OR A NEW LEASE ON LIFE?

    With two weeks remaining from the OSCE's 2004 budgetary authorization, Moscow threatens to block adoption of the 2005 budget unless the organization introduces Russian-proposed "reforms." Those proposals seek to: boost

    RUSSIA EXPLOITS THE OSCE TO PRESSURE GEORGIA

    The OSCE's failed year-end meeting in Sofia on December 6-7 also marked its conclusive failure as a would-be security organization. Russia demonstrated that it could kill the OSCE's one and

    MOSCOW VETOES UKRAINIAN DEMOCRACY IN THE OSCE

    The OSCE is probably the only international institution in which Russia has the statutory power to veto a country's advance toward democracy. At the OSCE's year-end meeting in Sofia on

    MOSCOW SCUTTLES OSCE YEAR-END CONFERENCE

    Russian hegemonic claims regarding Georgia, Moldova, and now also Ukraine, torpedoed the OSCE's year-end meeting at the level of Ministers of Foreign Affairs in Sofia on December 6-7. The annual

    MOLDOVA: THE KREMLIN ‘S NEXT TARGET AFTER UKRAINE?

    The Moldovan government does not recognize the officially announced results for Ukraine's presidential election. In a November 26 declaration, Moldova's Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted, "The November 21 balloting failed

    MILITARY DETENTE, POLITICAL DEADLOCK IN SOUTH OSSETIA

    On November 10, Georgia's Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania and Conflict Resolution Minister Giorgi Khaindrava reported to the cabinet of ministers' session that demilitarization of the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict zone is

    NATO LEADER VISITS THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

    On November 3-5, NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer visited, for the first time in this capacity, the three South Caucasus countries. He conferred with the head of state, the

    MOSCOW DEFYING OSCE ON THE DEMOCRACY FRONT

    Russia has enlisted its supporters among CIS countries to oppose the OSCE's election-monitoring missions and contradict OSCE election assessments. This Russian policy is not in itself new, but was reactive

    WAY CLEARED FOR VALUE-BASED GOVERNMENT IN LITHUANIA

    As anticipated (see EDM, October 12), the left-leaning Labor Party of Russian-born tycoon Viktor Uspaskikh faltered in the second round of Lithuania's parliamentary elections. After a strong performance in the

    BALTIC ANCHORS TO THE BLACK SEA

    Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and his ministerial team wound up a visit to the three Baltic states on October 15. Their tour highlighted both an accelerating process and an incipient

    RUSSIA TAKING OVER TAJIKISTAN’S MAIN ECONOMIC ENTITIES

    Visiting Tajikistan on October 16-17 to mark the ratification and entry into force of a military basing agreement, Russian President Vladimir Putin observed that relations with Tajikistan exemplified Russia's "comprehensive

    SERGEI IVANOV MISUSES NATO FORUM

    On October 14, defense ministers from NATO's 26 member countries and Russia held an informal session of the NATO-Russia Council in Romania. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov used the meeting

    COMMENTARY: CLEAN BREAK OVERDUE IN SOUTH OSSETIA

    Georgia has proposed an OSCE-hosted international conference that would institute genuine peacekeeping and negotiating mechanisms regarding South Ossetia. The process, once launched, would ultimately work out a definitive political solution

    WEST TURNING DEAF EAR TO MOLDOVA’S APPEALS

    Even as President Vladimir Putin is liquidating Russia's federal system, Russia and the OSCE's American-led Moldova Mission persist with a U.S. State Department-approved project to appoint Russia as the main

    Moldovan President Wants Out Of Russia’s Orbit

    For the first time since 1991, a Moldovan president has boycotted a CIS summit, proclaiming a one-directional European orientation rather than balancing between Europe and Russia. Vladimir Voronin recently allowed

    Commentary: The View From Sukhumi

    Led by the Jamestown Foundation, a group of international analysts and journalists held in-depth talks recently in Sukhumi with self-styled "prime minister" Raul Khajimba, "minister of foreign affairs" Georgii Otyrba,

    Commentary: Osce Not Coping In South Ossetia

    In August, a group of international analysts and journalists led by the Jamestown Foundation visited the Georgian-South Ossetian "conflict zone" at the height of tensions fueled by Russian military activities

    Commentary: The View From Tskhinvali

    Led by the Jamestown Foundation, a group of international analysts and journalists recently held in-depth talks in Tskhinvali with South Ossetian representatives Boris Chochiev and Murad Jioev. The discussion was

    Latvia: Why Not The Best Candidate?

    Latvia's Prime Minister Indulis Emsis has made an abrupt decision to remove Sandra Kalniete, an internationally respected diplomat, from the post of European Commissioner in Brussels. Emsis wants to free

    Moscow Breaches Sochi Agreement On Abkhazia

    On July 31, a Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry statement approvingly confirmed that a Russian company has begun maintenance work on the Sochi (Russia)-Sukhumi (Abkhazia) railroad. That railroad is legally Georgian,

    New Gas Trader To Boost Turkmenistan-Ukraine Transit

    On July 29, fully owned subsidiaries of Gazprom and of Austria's Raiffeisen Bank signed agreements establishing a joint gas-trading company, RosUkrEnergoprom. With Gazprom and Raiffeisen each holding half the shares,

    Ukraine Rephrases Nato Goal

    On July 26, the office of President Leonid Kuchma made public a presidential decree that amends Ukraine's military doctrine, deleting the goal of NATO membership. Whether deliberately or by coincidence,

    South Ossetian Leader Warns Georgia From Moscow

    On July 28 in Moscow, South Ossetia's leader Eduard Kokoev told a news conference that "Abkhazia, Karabakh, and Trans-Dniester are ready to render military assistance to South Ossetia" against Georgia.

    Nato In Afghanistan: Nation-builder And Election Monitor?

    Afghanistan's deteriorating security situation has led to further postponement of the presidential and parliamentary elections. Initially scheduled for June 2004 (when President Hamid Karzai's term of office expired), both sets

    Last Moldovan Schools Under Threat In Trans-dniester

    Trans-Dniester's Russian-installed authorities -- chosen partners of the U.S. State Department and OSCE in the project to "federalize" Moldova -- seem bent on enforcing a complete prohibition on Latin script

    East Versus West In Lithuania

    On June 22, five days before the Lithuanian presidential election runoff, the government's Special Investigations Service (SIS) raided the offices of four political parties, seized financial and other documents, and

    Russia Turning Back The Clock On Georgian Policy

    On June 21, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov told military journalists that Russia would only withdraw its troops from the Batumi and Akhalkalaki bases after receipt of US$300 million in

    Quo Vadis Lithuania?

    Lithuanian Social-Democrat Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas, and voters who look to him for leadership, hold the key to the outcome of the June 27 presidential election runoff in Lithuania. Brazauskas,

    Putin To Boycott Nato Summit

    Unofficially, Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated that he will not attend the NATO summit in Istanbul on June 28-29. NATO spokesman James Appathurai said several days ago that "discussions

    Georgia Intensifies Pressure On South Ossetia

    At a June 2 meeting of the mixed monitoring commission in Tskhinvali, the Georgian delegation demonstrated its lack of confidence in Major-General Svyatoslav Nabzdorov, demanding that he be recalled by

    Russian Leftists Launch European Party

    On June 4 in Prague, Russian left-wing activists from the three Baltic states led the founding conference of the "Russian Party of the European Union." Main initiators of the party

    Russian Troops To Prolong Stay In Tajikistan

    Meeting in Sochi on June 4, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Tajik President Imomali Rahmonov announced a set of decisions that would, if implemented, consolidate Russia's military presence in Tajikistan.

    Russian Tycoons Swoop Down On Georgia

    Kakha Bendukidze, one of Russia’s leading industrialists, is in Tbilisi today to accept appointment as minister of economics in the government of Georgia. President Mikheil Saakashvili and Prime Minister Zurab

    Moscow Warns Tbilisi

    Russia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, which had expressed some moderately phrased objections to Georgia’s anti-crime measures in South Ossetia on May 31, (see EMD, June 1) reverted to its familiar style

    Moldova’s Drift Toward Russia

    Whether by strategic design with Russia, by bureaucratic drift or a combination thereof, Western diplomats are rushing a pseudo-settlement of the Trans-Dniester problem that would, if implemented in the next

    Georgia Offers Political Settlements

    Speaking at a rally and a news conference on the occasion of Georgia's National Day (May 26), President Mikheil Saakashvili reached out to Abkhazia and South Ossetia with proposals for

    Lithuania: Requiem For A Stuntman

    On May 25, Lithuania's Constitutional Court ruled that an ex-president who has been removed from that office through impeachment may not run again for the presidency. By closing this legal

    Change Expected In Abkhazia

    Talks held by Georgia's State Minister for Conflict Settlement Giorgi Khaindrava on May 20-21 in Sukhumi with Abkhaz leaders indicate that changes are expected in Abkhazia, possibly in relations between

    Zhdanoka Candidacy Polarizes Latvian Election

    Tatyana Zhdanoka, a leftist opponent of Latvian national statehood, is the candidate of the largest Russian political bloc in Latvia in European Parliament elections. She is frontrunner for that seat,

    Ukraine Faces Setback In Transit Of Kazakh Oil

    On May 19, Oleksandr Todiychuk resigned as president of Ukraine's national oil transit company UkrTransNafta. Todiychuk's resignation follows a decision by President Leonid Kuchma to abolish the office of plenipotentiary

    Gazprom Eyes Takeover Of Beltransgaz

    BelTransGaz, the Belarusan state gas company whose pipelines carry Russian gas to Europe, is being targeted by Russia's state-controlled Gazprom monopoly for cheap takeover. Turning up the political pressure, the

    Georgian Troops Introduced In Tsalka

    Georgia's Internal Affairs Ministry has deployed a 200-strong troop unit to the town of Tsalka, after at least 10 local residents were injured in clashes between ethnic Armenians and Georgians.

    Council Of Europe Stumbles Over Ajaria

    Georgia has requested the Council of Europe (CE) to recall its Tbilisi representative, and has severely criticized the CE's Secretary-General Walter Schwimmer in the wake of the events in Ajaria

    NO CASUS BELLI: MOSCOW IN GEORGIA’S PANKISI GORGE

    By Vladimir Socor Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest associates are again calling for a military operation inside Georgia. This, by most counts, is the third cycle of such threats--not including

    GUUAM SUMMIT: A NEW LEASE ON LIFE?

    By Vladimir Socor Like Luigi Pirandello's stage characters, GUUAM's member countries seem forever in search of a playwright with a script. Ukraine from time to time provides the group's other

    FEDERALIZATION EXPERIMENT IN MOLDOVA

    By Vladimir Socor At a five-party meeting on July 2-3, ambassadors of Russia, Ukraine and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) officially submitted to Moldova and secessionist

    THE RUSSIAN SQUEEZE ON GEORGIA

    By Vladimir Socor Russia has capped off its three recent summits--held in late May with the United States, NATO and the EU--with increased pressures on Georgia. So much for the

    QUO VADIS, MOLDOVA?

    By Vladimir Socor On March 22, Moldova held parliamentary elections for the second time in its life as an independent democratic state. It conducted this exercise while in a state