Concessions Unlikely as Xi Hosts Western Leaders

Concessions Unlikely as Xi Hosts Western Leaders

Executive Summary:

• State media exude confidence about current European and Western leaders “scrambling” to visit Beijing, suggesting that General Secretary Xi Jinping will remain unmoved while seeking concessions.
• European trade deficits with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have risen in recent years, with diminishing exports and minimal FDI. Xi has not indicated that he sees this as an issue.
• Xi does seek alignment on other issues, recently persuading President Macron to offer support for his “global governance initiative.”
• Xi ultimately seeks similar European alignment on Taiwan, though this remains unlikely so long as Beijing continues to support Russia’s war on European territory.

Recent European delegations to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have prioritized economic and commercial ties, with Europe seeking to balance its trade deficit with the PRC. In September, Peter Kyle, the United Kingdom’s Secretary of State for Business and Trade attended the U.K.-China Joint Economic and Trade Commission (JETCO), which was the first U.K.–PRC trade dialogue since 2018 (United Kingdom Department for Business & Trade, September 12). In November, German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil attended the China-Germany High-Level Financial Dialogue in Beijing, focusing on policy coordination and global financial stability (German Ministry of Finance, November 18). December’s visit by German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul was similarly marked by an emphasis on economic policy (Reuters, December 11). Most recently, French president Emmanuel Macron’s state visit focused on discussions of the PRC–Europe trade imbalance (Agenzia Nova, December 5).

Macron’s trip was the first in a string of leader-level visits to the PRC set to take place in the coming months. U.K. prime minister Keir Starmer could travel to Beijing at the end of January 2026, and will likely be followed by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Canadian prime minister Mark Carney (Reuters, December 3; DW, December 6; The Globe and Mail, December 16). U.S. president Donald Trump is also expected to visit the PRC in April.

Geopolitical concerns have also been salient in recent meetings. European governments want PRC support for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine and are willing to endorse General Secretary Xi Jinping’s global initiatives in advocating a stable international environment. Xi may find opportunities to secure greater geopolitical alignment in exchange for concessions in some economic areas, such as imports and investment.

PRC Unmoved by European Concerns

Western European leaders want the PRC to boost imports and increase investment in their economies, but Xi appears uninterested. The European Union’s (EU) trade deficit with Beijing continues to grow, in 2024 totaling €306 billion ($360 billion). A similar story has played out on the investment front, with €232 billion ($272 billion) invested in the PRC compared to Renminbi (RMB) 539 billion ($76 billion) sent the other way. Across the Channel, the United Kingdom’s trade deficit with the PRC has been expanding since 2019 and U.K. exports have been declining since 2022. Macron and Wadephul’s respective visits produced no new agreements on trade or investments, and such agreements are not expected during the scheduled visits by Merz, Carney, or Starmer (AFP, December 9; Reuters, December 11).

In Beijing, Macron told Xi that the PRC’s trade surplus with Europe was “untenable” and that the PRC needed to start importing from Europe instead of “killing their customers.” He added that European industry is facing a “life or death” moment, reflecting how Europe feels stuck between an ultra-competitive China and a protectionist United States, and the hope that Beijing can rescue the continent with long overdue foreign investment (Politico, December 5). However, further PRC–Europe cooperation in trade was only hinted at, rather than set down in concrete terms. This was also evident during talks between PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi (王毅) and Wadephul in early December (South China Morning Post; Table Briefings, December 7).

Among four joint statements issued by Xi and Macron, one on global governance closely aligns with Xi’s recent rhetoric. It notes that “France attaches importance to and appreciates the Global Governance Initiative put forward by China” (法国重视并赞赏中国提出的全球治理倡议) (Xinhua; Élysée, December 5). [1] According to PRC coverage of the meeting, Macron also told Xi that his country “fully agrees with President Xi’s views on reforming and improving global governance and promoting a more balanced global economy” (法方完全赞同习近平主席有关改革完善全球治理、推动全球经济更加平衡的意见) (Xinhua, December 4).

Xi Seeks Support as Stepping Stone on Taiwan

Xi has had some success getting rhetorical buy-in from European leaders on his global initiatives. But these remain largely hypothetical (China Brief, October 31). While he also seeks rhetorical and actual alignment on Taiwan, which would carry far greater international significance, such alignment has been less forthcoming. However, this has not stopped senior PRC officials from emphasizing their idiosyncratic view of history. In talks with Wadephul, Wang Yi noted that Taiwan’s status as an inalienable part of the PRC had been “locked down seven times” (七重锁定), referring to several international documents, such as the Cairo Declaration and UN Resolution 2758, which state that Taiwan is part of China (BBC, December 5; FMPRC, December 9).

Xi is likely to be disappointed if he hopes to secure guarantees from Western nations not to cooperate with the United States or Japan to counter coercive or military action over Taiwan. In 2025, naval vessels from eight countries have transited the Taiwan Strait as a symbol of support for the country, including the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and Australia (LTN, December 3). And in December, Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) was well received by members of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) when she delivered a speech at the EU parliament in Brussels (IPAC, November 7).

European leaders will likely remain wary of Beijing as long as it continues to support Russian aggression on the continent. These concerns are exacerbated by President Trump’s 28-point Ukrainian peace deal proposal, which was designed with Russian input but without consultation with either Ukraine or Europe. Some in Taiwan fear that the CCP believes this could serve as a model for Taiwan unification, in which Trump’s disposition for dealmaking could lead to a U.S.–PRC agreement to resolve Taiwan’s status in Beijing’s favor (World Journal, December 2).

Conclusion

The combative scholar of European politics Wang Shuo (王朔) has derided the recent trend of Western leaders “scrambling” (争先恐后) to visit the PRC (Guancha, December 3). Wang has previously advocated for PRC policymakers to leverage rifts between European leaders to advance PRC interests (CICIR via CSIS Interpret: China, May 20, 2022). While not an official voice, the sentiment he expresses is likely of a piece with the perspective in Zhongnanhai.

If Xi can continue working toward forcing European alignment with his geopolitical goals without making concessions on balancing trade with Europe, he will do so. This strategy allows him room to offer concessions in the future on issues he considers more strategically significant, such as Taiwan. The outcome of upcoming leader-level visits will provide a clearer sense of how Europe perceives the current stakes, and how much difficulty Xi will face in advancing the Party’s interests in 2026 and beyond.

Notes

[1] In the original French, Élysée Palace states “La France accorde de l’importance et apprécie l’Initiative pour la gouvernance mondiale (GGI) lancée par la Chine.”