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Moscow Will Only Consider Absorbing South Ossetia Amid a Georgian Rapprochement With NATO
Executive Summary: South Ossetia wants to join Russia for at least the fourth time now but will not hold a referendum until Moscow agrees. The Kremlin’s decision rests less on... MORE
Logistical Semi-Blockade Undermines Strategic Foundations of Belarusian Statehood
Executive Summary: Belarus plays an essential geostrategic role in the logistical transport networks between Asia and Europe through the “Northern Corridor,” which passes through Russia and Belarus. Although Western sanctions... MORE
Belarus Addresses Nuclear Weapons in New Military Doctrine
Executive Summary Belarus’s new military doctrine appears to emphasize tactical nuclear weapons as a means of preventing others from attacking the country. While high-ranking military officials use generic phrases about... MORE
Presidential ‘Elections’ Cannot Restore Putin’s Authority
Executive Summary: Russia will hold presidential elections this week in an attempt to demonstrate the population’s sustained loyalty to President Vladimir Putin and support for his war. ... MORE
Nine Things Western Analysts Got Wrong About Russia and Its Invasion of Ukraine
Executive Summary: Many analysts in the West have misunderstood the conflict in Ukraine, leading to the mishandling of aid to Ukraine. Many Western analysts overlooked the historical myth-making that the... MORE
Russia Reorganizes Military Districts
Executive Summary: The Kremlin announced a transformation of its military districts to “buy” loyalty from its officer corps and organize its military with to prepare for war on and beyond... MORE
Kazakhstan Plans to Host Military Drills With Members of Russian-Led CSTO
Executive Summary: Astana plans to pursue a “multi-vector” diplomatic strategy for 2024, engaging more with the CSTO, NATO, and other international organizations and conducting joint military exercises with diverse partners.... MORE
Putin’s Decoy Signal For Peace Aims to Split West
Executive Summary: Moscow’s signaling of a willingness for peace negotiations should be considered as a tactical maneuver aimed at splitting the Western public opinion and undermining its resolve to help... MORE
New Polish Government Bolsters Relations with Ukraine
Executive Summary: The new Polish government has reaffirmed its commitment to Ukraine’s security in the wake of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s visit to Kyiv. Warsaw is a major advocate for... MORE
Biden’s LNG Decision Sparks Hope for Russia’s Energy Industry
Executive Summary: The Biden administration's temporary pause on constructing new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals has prompted Russian optimism about boosting its global LNG exports and exploiting internal divisions... MORE