Western Leaders Misunderstand Roots of Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Executive Summary:

• The West’s approach to Moscow’s war against Ukraine lacks the clearly defined objective of Russia’s total military defeat. This has contributed to protraction of the war due to misunderstandings of the conflict’s origins and the motivations of the parties involved.
• The Kremlin’s goals for its war include the complete subjugation and Russification of the Ukrainian people, fueled by the imperialist ideology of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• The influence of the Russian Orthodox Church and its promotion and support of this “holy war” against the “satanic” West has further radicalized Putin’s agenda of the complete absorption of Ukraine and eradication of its national identity and culture.

Since February 24, 2022, the United States under the Joe Biden administration has been a leading military and economic supporter of Ukraine. Washington has also been a backer and initiator of sanctions against Russia and those countries supporting Moscow’s military machine, primarily China and Iran (see EDM, April 3). The Biden administration, however, has never declared Russia’s military defeat to be its ultimate goal in supporting Kyiv. This has contributed to debates over the conflict turning into a “never-ending war.” Although many opposition leaders in the United States have criticized this lack of clarity, similar sentiments are echoed in peace plans from that side. For example, in April, the America First Policy Institute (AFPI)—a staunch supporter of former US President Donald Trump—outlined a detailed peace plan for the war in Ukraine (AFPI, April 11; see EDM, July 2). The plan envisages that Washington would address the conflict alone without input from other states. It stipulates that the United States would only continue militarily supporting Ukraine if Kyiv agreed to join peace talks. Russia meanwhile would be invited to join the peace talks and warned that if it refused, the United States would increase its military support to Ukraine. The plan itself, however, does not define how “victory” would be achieved for Kyiv and does little to address the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The AFPI plan reflects similar proposals for a ceasefire without providing a solution for the occupied territories and Crimea (see EDM, March 2, 6, November 20, 2023, March 4, June 20). Such unrealistic plans are rooted in serious misunderstandings of the Kremlin’s true intentions for its war against Ukraine. 

The AFPI peace plan, and many Western leaders, have an incomplete understanding of the roots of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Kyiv would likely ignore this and similar plans due to public opinion and distrust of Putin’s Kremlin to follow through on any agreements made with the stipulations outlined (see EDM, May 10, 2023, February 26). Russia would flatly reject the plan because it does not allow it to achieve the genocidal goal of destroying Ukraine and Ukrainian identity as well as the absorption of the whole Ukrainian nation. Thus, any peace plan built on the fundamental misunderstanding of Russia’s true goals for its war will be incomplete at best and likely impossible to implement (see EDM, July 2).

The AFPI peace plan rests on several assumptions about the war. For example, it assumes Ukrainians will accept they cannot join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in return for peace. Ukrainians, however, are distrustful of Western “security guarantees” after the security assurances they received in the Budapest Memorandum, in return for giving up the world’s third-largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, were ignored by the West. Additionally, the plan assumes that Washington has sufficient leverage to pressure Ukraine and Russia to enter peace talks. This is partly true in the case of Ukraine but not so with Russia. Putin’s Kremlin remains the largest obstacle to any US peace effort (TASS, June 15).

Putin believes Russia will win the war because it has greater staying power and political will than the West (Vazhnyie Istorii, June 21). The day before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s peace summit in Switzerland, Putin outlined his conditions for peace talks, including the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts (the latter three are only partially occupied by Russia) and Ukraine’s inability to join NATO (see EDM, May 29, 30, June 20; Kremlin.ru, June 14; Vazhnyie Istorii, June 21). US Vice President Kamala Harris called Putin’s proposals “manipulative” and “absurd” (White House, June 15).

Other Russian elites echo Putin’s terms. Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev stated that Russia will accept “only complete and unconditional capitulation. And now it is necessary to act in the same way—by forcing former Ukraine to peace exclusively on Russian terms” (Argumenty i Fakty, July 17). Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described the Ukrainian peace formula outlined in Switzerland, which called for the withdrawal of Russian forces from all internationally recognized Ukrainian territory, as “absolutely unacceptable” for the Kremlin (Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, July 16).

Moscow will not be satisfied with only occupying a fifth of Ukrainian territory. The Kremlin demands that control over Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Dnipro is essential to Russian imperial nationalist mythology. Some leaders in the West often do not fully recognize Russia’s long-standing imperial plans and the invasion goal of replacing an independent Ukrainian state with a smaller “Little Russia.” Russia’s annexation and continued occupation of Crimea, Donbas, and southeast Ukraine (“New Russia”) is non-negotiable, as Putin has repeatedly stated (Kremlin.ru, July 12, 2021, September 30, 2022; Kuzio, Crimea: Where Russia’s War Started and Where Ukraine Will Win, July 8).

Understanding why Russia invaded Ukraine is essential for developing an effective peace plan. Over 50 percent of Ukrainians, both those who support and those who oppose territorial concessions for peace, believe the goal of  Russia’s invasion is to destroy the Ukrainian nation and national identity as well as to turn Ukrainians into Russians (Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, July 27). Over 60 percent of both groups believe that Moscow aims to commit genocide and physically liquidate most Ukrainians. This is confirmed by the Kremlin and Russian Orthodox Church’s (ROC) promotion of the ideology that Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians are one people and that Ukrainians are not sovereign people (Patriarchia.ru, March 27). This ideology was most recently highlighted at the “Russian World” forum on July 29. At the forum, one of the key topics discussed was the “return to the doctrine of the trinity of the Russian people as one of the key aspects of solving the problem of the denazification of Ukraine” (Kremlin.ru, September 30, 2022, November 28, 2023; Russkoye Edinstvo, July 29).

The ROC is a major contributor to the ideology that Ukrainians are not sovereign people but Russian, which is a major pillar of Putin’s rhetoric. The ROC supports the war through its Telegram channels, religious print, and electronic media; fundraising for soldiers and veterans; participation in official ceremonies on the war; and censorship and repression of anti-war clergy (Re-Russia, January 1; T.me/pravoslavie_ru, accessed August 5). The ROC has expanded its jurisdiction over occupied Ukrainian lands by pushing out the autocephalous Orthodox Church of Ukraine (Russian Orthodox Church, March 8, 2022; see EDM, April 10). On March 27, the World Russian People’s Council (WRPC) issued a decree that gave full backing to the “holy war” against a “satanic” West that allegedly controls Ukraine (Religious Information Service of Ukraine, April 3). The WRPC described the “liberation” of the core of “Holy Rus” (Ukraine) as a mandate given to Russia by God. The council also called for all of Ukraine to be returned to the canonical control of the ROC, from which it was removed by Constantinople in 2018. In a “liberated” Ukraine, there will be no room for a “Russophobic” regime, and Moscow would plan to install a pro-Russian puppet regime in Kyiv. “Liberation” of Ukraine will lead to the “restoration of the unity of the pan-Russian people,” or the replacement of Ukrainians by “Little Russians” (Russian Patriarchate, March 27).

Russia’s war against Ukraine is deeply rooted in Moscow’s ongoing imperial ambitions and its goal of eradicating Ukrainian sovereignty and identity. The West’s approach, while supportive of Ukraine, lacks the clear objective of Russia’s ultimate military defeat, which has contributed to the protraction of the war. The Kremlin’s unwavering demand for territorial control and the complete subjugation of Ukraine, coupled with the ROC’s ideological support, underscores the complexity of achieving a peaceful resolution. To end this war, those involved in the peace process must understand why Russia invaded Ukraine and the propagandistic ideology that Putin and his Kremlin continue to spread to justify his war.