Executive Summary: On September 10, Poland shot down at least 19 Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that had violated its airspace. Afterward, Poland invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) founding treaty. Belarus’s armed forces notified Poland and Lithuania about the incoming... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine is stepping up international cooperation in defense manufacturing to maximize production, drive innovation, and protect critical industrial infrastructure from Russian strikes. Kyiv launched the “Test in Ukraine” platform to allow international defense companies to learn from Ukrainian innovation and test their new... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian officials insist that the joint strategic exercise Zapad-2025 of the Regional Troops Grouping (RTG) of Belarus and Russia poses no threat to neighboring states, has limited parameters, and is purely defensive in nature. The Belarusian authorities present the scaling back of strategic... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s September 9–10 drone attack, when at least 19 decoy Gerbera drones entered Polish airspace, caused little physical damage but triggered a swift response, including operation “Eastern Sentry,” in a kinetic test of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) resolve. Moscow’s incursion occurred alongside... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is systematically erasing Ukrainian identity in occupied regions to solidify long-term submission and control by banning Ukrainian in schools, rewriting history, and indoctrinating children.  In the occupied territories, the Kremlin is linking Russian citizenship to access to healthcare, SIM cards, and... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow believes the upcoming Alaska summit will end Russian President Vladimir Putin’s international isolation, taking note of its location in Alaska, which Russia once owned.   Russian commentators are interpreting the summit as U.S. acceptance of Moscow’s view that decisions can be made about... MORE

Today, August 9, marks the fifth anniversary of Belarus’s 2020 presidential election. This election represented a critical juncture for Belarus, not just because of its preordained outcome—Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s fraudulent and corrupt victory—but rather because of the mass mobilization of Belarusian citizens and subsequent regime crackdown... MORE

Executive Summary:    In the five years since Belarus’s 2020 protest movement, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s authoritarian regime has become characterized by systematic, violent repression of dissent. The country, isolated from the West, became a military foothold for Russia and fell into political, economic, and informational... MORE

Executive Summary: A recent joint investigation by the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) and Moldovan outlet CU SENS confirmed that Moscow had established secret paramilitary camps in the Balkans to train Moldovan citizens in destabilization tactics ahead of Moldova’s October 2024 presidential elections. The Kremlin... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s soaring fiscal deficit, trade imbalances, and stalled reforms undermine post-war reconstruction planning. Foreign investments critical for recovery are also deterred by judicial inefficiencies, incomplete energy sector reforms, and entrenched corruption.  Uncertain financial aid, monetary instability, and mismanaged state assets limit prospects for... MORE