Executive Summary: The Ukrainian parliament has voted to recognize Russian actions against the Circassians in the 19th century as an act of genocide—a move Circassians and human rights activists hope will lead other countries to follow. Moscow is working to blunt the impact of Ukraine’s... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has addressed the incoming U.S. administration of Donald Trump in a series of public messages, reaffirming its entrenched preconditions for a dialogue regarding Ukraine. The Kremlin wants Trump’s team to bid proactively for negotiations over Ukraine on those conditions. Moscow has... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian offensive in Donbas has stalled, creating a deadlock with heavy casualties. The Kremlin remains committed to Ukraine’s capitulation, ignoring the heavy casualties in its stalled Donbas offensive, dismissing ceasefire discussions, and disregarding public support for peace.  Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow believes that NATO will not accept Ukraine as a member as long as Russia wages war against it and wants the West to exclude Ukraine from NATO in exchange for “peace” with Russia. Some NATO states are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide... MORE

Executive Summary: The last year of Russia’s war in Ukraine saw a number of turning points, including both Ukraine’s invasion of Russian territory and its massive drone attacks on Russian facilities, as well as an expansion in Russian aggression. Many in Kyiv, Moscow, and the... MORE

Executive Summary: A joint meeting of the Foreign Ministry Collegiums of Russia and Belarus occurred on November 22, emphasizing deepening Belarus-Russia cooperation under the Union State framework, with new agreements on joint security and coordinated foreign policy. Russia extended its nuclear doctrine to cover Belarus,... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: The Kremlin formally approved a new nuclear doctrine on November 19, following the West’s authorization for Ukraine to utilize its deep strike capabilities on Russian territory. The revised document is directed at Western powers and aims to address the potential escalation... MORE

Executive Summary: As Russia’s war in Ukraine passes the 1,000-day mark, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy has turned to escalatory steps aimed at undermining Ukraine’s will to resist and weakening Western resolve to confront Russian aggression. The change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine, deployment of North... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine is reviving its Soviet-era missile expertise to develop modern capabilities, reducing reliance on Western technology and circumventing restrictions on imported weapons while boosting defense self-sufficiency. The relaxation of Western restrictions, particularly the US decision to allow limited use of long-range missile systems... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against Ukraine for the first time on November 21, targeting the city of Dnipro and Ukraine’s military-industrial complex in retaliation for Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied long-range weapons against Russian territory. Russia’s strike against Ukraine, coinciding... MORE