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Latest Articles about Europe's East
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Sanctions Deepen Kremlin Influence in Belarus and Strengthen Lukashenka Regime
Executive Summary: Western punitive sanctions against Belarus since 2020 may have done more to strengthen authoritarianism in Belarus and reinforce the country’s economic, political, informational, and military cooperation with Russia. Sanctions have negatively impacted the lives of ordinary citizens, making it harder to obtain visas,... MORE
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NATO States Undertake Security Commitments to Kyiv Under Ukraine Compact (Part Two)
(Part One) Executive Summary: The security agreements under the Ukraine Compact, announced at the recent NATO summit, look considerably weaker and self-deterring when compared with the original blueprint of the 2022 Kyiv Security Compact. The chief merit common to both is the exclusion of Russia... MORE
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NATO States Undertake Security Commitments to Kyiv Under Ukraine Compact (Part One)
Executive Summary: Twenty-three North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)member states have undertaken bilateral security commitments to Ukraine. The ten-year agreements operate under the umbrella of a Ukraine Compact, outside NATO’s framework, and postpone Ukraine’s NATO membership in deference to Russia. The assistance offers are potentially massive... MORE
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Western Leaders Misunderstand Roots of Russia’s War Against Ukraine
Executive Summary: The West’s approach to Moscow’s war against Ukraine lacks the clearly defined objective of Russia’s total military defeat. This has contributed to protraction of the war due to misunderstandings of the conflict’s origins and the motivations of the parties involved. The Kremlin’s goals... MORE
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Airstrikes, Artificial Intelligence, and Sabotage Drive Russian Psyops
Executive Summary: The Russian Federation continues its efforts aimed at destabilizing Ukrainian society and undermining Kyiv’s defense capabilities through the use of social media and bots to spread disinformation. Russian propagandists effectively combine kinetic and non-kinetic means to increase the effects on the target audience,... MORE
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Belarus and Ukraine De-Escalate Military Tensions on the Border
Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka recently announced that he had conducted backchannel talks with Kyiv to de-escalate military tensions on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. The announcement drew attention from Russian-language media and social networks but was largely disregarded in the West, highlighting some Western countries'... MORE
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Wagner Suffers Another Military Setback in Africa, This Time in Mali
Executive Summary: On July 27, the Wagner Group, the notorious Russian private military company (PMC), suffered substantial losses while stationed in Mali to combat terrorist threats in the region. Kyiv’s Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense (GUR) issued a statement linking Ukraine to the... MORE
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Moscow Worried About Ukrainian ‘Wedges’ in Russia and Their Growing Support From Abroad
Executive Summary: Moscow has declared two movements in the ethnic Ukrainian regions of the Russian Federation as “extremist,” one in the Kuban and another in the Far East. The move reflects growing Russian concern about Ukrainian activism within Russia and outside support for it. These... MORE
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Russian Army Degrading in Ukraine, Threatening Moscow Both There and at Home
Executive Summary: The Russian military in Ukraine is suffering from various signs of degradation. The longer the war goes on, the more these trends are likely to intensify, threatening Moscow’s ability to conduct military operations and maintain order at home. The battlefield degradation is seeping... MORE
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Lukashenka’s 30th Presidential Anniversary Highlights Belarus’s Political Divide
Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka celebrated the 30th anniversary of his rule on July 10, highlighting his enduring influence in Belarusian politics as the country’s only president since independence. Lukashenka’s power relies on pro-Russian support against pro-European factions, which he claims necessitates authoritarian control.... MORE