Executive Summary: The provision of US-made ATACMS and other Western long-range capabilities looks to enable Ukraine to strike military targets in Russian-occupied Crimea. The passage of the long-delayed US aid package has given Kyiv’s other Western partners momentum to commit more support to Ukraine as... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian-cultivated circles overlap with People’s Republic of China (PRC) intelligence networks. These intersections include politicians on both extremes of Europe’s political spectrum, and across countries which include Belgium, Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic. “Daniel Woo,” a PRC state security officer, is a... MORE

Executive Summary: Ideology-driven paramilitary groups in Russia have grown significantly in size and influence since the beginning of the war against Ukraine, with the Russian Imperial Movement and “Rusich” representing perhaps the most active entities in this regard. Both groups are built on far-right, ultranationalist,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Navy’s reserve of admirals and ships is steadily decreasing as senior military commanders are losing their positions following numerous setbacks for the Black Sea Fleet at the hands of Ukraine’s drone and missile offensive. These failures and the destruction of one-third... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has transformed the education system in the occupied territories of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, replacing educators and curriculum with pro-Russian, military-patriotic education aimed at militarizing Ukrainian children against their homeland. The Kremlin has started to erase the Ukrainian language, rewrite history books,... MORE

Executive Summary: Many analysts in the West have misunderstood the conflict in Ukraine, leading to the mishandling of aid to Ukraine.  Many Western analysts overlooked the historical myth-making that the Kremlin had been promoting for many years, which aimed to erase Ukrainian history and identity.... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian mercenary industry has transformed since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 with private military companies (PMCs) and other paramilitary formations taking on a more prominent role in Russia’s military operations. PMCs and other mercenary groups have become key players in... MORE

Executive Summary: Cossack education has increasingly focused on preparing Russian youth for war. New Cossack cadet corps are being developed in Crimea, expanding Russia’s foothold on the peninsula. Cultural events celebrating Cossack traditions to “inculcate a love of the motherland in young people” are becoming... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian-occupied Crimea is now facing water shortages so severe that as many as 500,000 of the peninsula’s 2.5 million residents may soon be forced to try to flee despite Moscow’s claims to the contrary. Such outmigration undermines Russian control. It also creates difficulties... MORE

Executive Summary: Delays in weapons deliveries, disproportionate political pressure, and problems with command, control, and communications plagued Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive from the start. Ukrainian forces’ ability to wage a successful 2024 campaign largely rests on Kyiv’s efforts to mobilize more military-age men to reinforce the... MORE