Executive Summary: Moscow is using drone incursions in Romania and Poland to test the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO’s) readiness and resolve, seeking to highlight divisions over how to respond to this new form of aggression. Moscow’s simultaneous moves in Svalbard (Spitzbergen), a Norwegian archipelago... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Foreign Ministry’s premier journal, International Life, says the Baltic Sea region has become “a potential theater of military conflict,” one where there is no chance that regimes more amenable to Moscow will arise in the absence of a radical shift in... MORE

Executive Summary: Finland and Sweden joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in part as a response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, prompting a Scandinavian defense overhaul. This overhaul includes plans released in June 2024 for a railway to transport NATO... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has declared that Oslo strengthening its defenses on Svalbard is a violation of the Svalbard Treaty, implying that Russia views itself as a defender of that treaty and could take military action to defend it.  Nikolai Patrushev, a hardline Kremlin aide close... MORE

Executive Summary: Following the invasion of Ukraine, Norway faces heightened security risks from Russia, including espionage attempts and incidents involving drones near critical infrastructure. In the intelligence’s assessment, Norway’s oil and gas facilities, essential to the European energy supply, are particularly vulnerable targets, necessitating strengthened... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is focusing on the Åland Islands as a potential target in the event of war with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) now that the West has taken new steps to boost the defense of Gotland and the Svalbard islands. This Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s first direct attack on a NATO country may come against Norway’s Svalbard archipelago, a possibility that continues to divide NATO on whether a Russian move there would require an Article 5 response. Moscow’s interest in Svalbard, a demilitarized region, has grown because... MORE

On August 13, al-Qaeda’s Al-Sahab Media issued a call on a Telegram channel for Muslims to "take revenge" on Denmark and Sweden for Quran-burning protests, which had been carried out for several months in both countries. The announcement was ominously titled, "The obligation to attack... MORE

Following the prolonged detention of Islamic State (IS)-linked European citizens in al-Hol and similar camps in northeastern Syria from 2019 onwards, many countries have become more amenable to repatriation. This comes as pressure to resolve these citizens’—and particularly their childrens’—fates has increased. The Nordic countries... MORE

As Russia’s assault on Ukraine gradually descends into a stalemate, the Russian government is increasingly concerned about Western responses to its aggression, particularly military exercises in formerly quiet and largely neutralist Scandinavia. Arctic Forge 23, a joint month-long Western military exercise in Finland and Norway,... MORE