Romania Invests Heavily in Air Defense to Counter Russian Threat

Romania Invests Heavily in Air Defense to Counter Russian Threat

Executive Summary:

• Romania is investing more than $20 billion in its air defense, but Russian drones continue to pose a threat to its airspace and its citizens.
• The air defense threat faced by Romania in the Black Sea region is complex. It varies from high-performance fighter jets and strategic bombers to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and one-way attack munitions.
• Romania faces the two major challenges of maintaining the credibility of deterrence on the Eastern Flank and keeping its citizens convinced that it can defend them.

Romania has been investing heavily in its air defense over the past decade and is set to invest a massive amount of funds well into the next. An estimate of its investment, based on current and future programs, shows that Romania will spend more than $20.4 billion well into the 2030s on air defense (see chart at the end of the article for price breakdown). The procurement process is comprehensive and encompasses fighter aircraft, ground-based air defense systems, radar systems, and command-and-control centers.

Romania’s air defense capabilities and expenditure have come under scrutiny in recent years because of the numerous drone incursions caused by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Russian drones have violated Romanian airspace 30 times since 2022, with 15 incursions taking place during the first half of 2026, as Russia’s campaign against Ukrainian port infrastructure intensified (G4Media.ro, June 4). In 47 cases, drone wreckage has been found on Romanian territory. On May 29, the worst ever incursion affected the Danube port city of Galați when a Geran-2 (Shahed-136) hit a block of flats, wounding two people (Hotnews.ro, May 29). Despite Romanian Air Force F-16s shooting down a Ukrainian drone that strayed into Estonian airspace during the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) Baltic Air Policing mission, Romania has, overall, exercised remarkable restraint when it comes to drones violating its airspace (Hotnews.ro, May 19).

The threat matrix Romania faces in the Black Sea region in the air domain is extremely complex. It includes high-performance multirole fighter jets, strike fighters, supersonic strategic bombers (Tupolev Tu-22M3 Backfire), strategic bombers (Tupolev Tu-95 Bear), cruise missiles (Kalibr cruise missile family, Iskander-K), hypersonic cruise missiles (3M22 Zircon), short-range ballistic missiles (Iskander-M), aeroballistic missiles (Kh-47M2 Kinzhal), and medium-range ballistic missiles (Oreshnik). Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) represent the newest, most pervasive, and dynamic air threat in the region.  

Romania’s investment in ground-based air defense includes both strategic air defense systems. These aim to provide limited defense against medium-range ballistic missiles for European countries, as well as medium- and short-range systems to counter aircraft, cruise missiles, and UAVs. Bucharest has joined the European Sky Shield Initiative, which uses the Israeli Arrow 3 as its top-tier system (AMA, October 20, 2022). Romania’s contribution to the European Sky Shield includes three IRIS-T SLM systems acquired through the Security Action For Europe (SAFE) mechanism, as well as the existing Patriot integrated air defense systems (Defense Romania, April 28). For integration with the European Sky Shield Initiative, Romania is also acquiring two air defense command centers (Defense Romania, January 26).

The most expensive air defense procurement program is the acquisition of 32 F-35 Lightning II multirole jet fighters for $6.5 billion (Newsweek Romania, January 9). Previously, the most expensive air defense program was the acquisition of seven Patriot integrated air defense systems from the United States for $3.9 billion. Romania is buying several 67 F-16 AM/BM fighters acquired used from Portugal, the United States, Norway, and the Netherlands. They will be used as an interim platform for transitioning to the F-35. Furthermore, 18 of these fighters are assigned to the European F-16 Training Center (EFTC), established at the 86th Air Base (Bursa, May 18). The Royal Netherlands Air Force has donated these 18 F-16 fighters for EFTC, which will train Ukrainian and Romanian F-16 fighter pilots (NL Times, November 4, 2025).

Short-range and very short-range air defense systems have become crucial to securing Romanian airspace due to the threat posed by UAVs and one-way attack munitions. Procurement programs for short-range and very short-range air defense systems include the acquisition of radars, artillery, and missile-based air defense systems, Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems (MANPADS), and munitions. Romania has signed a $2.4 billion procurement contract with the Israeli company Rafael to acquire the SPYDER short-range air defense system (Adevărul, June 5).

In response to the increasing threat of Shahed-136/Geran-2 drones from Russia, highlighted by the latest incident in Galați, Merops interceptors have been requested from the United States and operationalized (AMA, November 13, 2025). Moreover, Romania and Ukraine plan to jointly produce drone interceptors in the near future (AMA, April 8). Cooperation between Romania and Ukraine on drone warfare is extremely promising, given the proximity of the two countries, the nature of the threat facing both Kyiv and Bucharest, and the recently agreed strategic partnership (see EDM, April 27).

Currently, Romania faces two main challenges concerning its air defense. The most serious one is strategic and concerns Bucharest’s credibility as a security provider in the Black Sea region. Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Romania has exercised restraint regarding drone incursions out of concern for avoiding escalation, as well as avoiding any perception of being a cobelligerent in the war, given its proximity to Ukraine.

As the Russian air attacks against Ukraine intensified, more and more Russian drones found their way into Romanian airspace, some of them crashing, mostly harmlessly, in sparsely inhabited areas near the border with Ukraine—until the Galați incident. Romania changed its legal framework regarding the engagement of aircraft that strayed into its airspace and its rules of engagement (Digi24, May 19, 2025; Euronews, May 29). Despite these changes, however, Romanian countermeasures have failed to bring down Russian drones that violate its airspace.

Russian drones that end up in Romanian airspace may not be an accidental byproduct of Russia’s campaign against Ukrainian port infrastructure. Russia may be probing Romania’s and NATO’s defenses and reactions. Although discretion is the better part of valor in some cases, the Kremlin should not consider Bucharest as NATO’s “soft underbelly” and target it for potential aggression. After the Galați drone incident, Romania would need to intercept the next Russian drones that violate its airspace to restore and reaffirm conventional deterrence in its sector of the Eastern Flank.

The other challenge posed by the Russian drones concerns politics and perception. The Romanians living near the Ukrainian border in Tulcea County or Galați County have had to live with a war “next door” for the past five years (DW Romania, September 9, 2023). The drone incursions have increased the fear and anxiety of the inhabitants living near the border (New York Times, May 6). The failure to intercept and bring down the drone that crashed into a block of flats in Galați has created the perception at the local level that the government cannot protect its citizens, which Russian information campaigns or populist politicians can exploit. Romanians could begin to question Romania’s defense modernization drive if they do not feel protected. The public must see Romanian civil and military decision-makers as taking the drone threat seriously.

Romania has been making significant progress regarding its air defense. In the short and medium term, however, a coherent answer to the drone threat near its borders is needed.

Romania’s Major Air Defense Acquisition Program