Romania No Longer Turns Blind Eye to Russia’s Airspace Violations

Romania No Longer Turns Blind Eye to Russia’s Airspace Violations

Executive Summary:

• Russian violations of Romania’s airspace test the country’s will to defend itself and its support for Ukraine.
• Romania’s decision makers are no longer willing to turn a blind eye to Russian incursions.
• The change in Romania’s diplomatic tone, a new legal framework, and increased air defense capabilities suggest that a future incursion will not be tolerated.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has transformed Romania into an unintended victim of drone warfare. Russian and occasionally Ukrainian drones and aircraft have strayed into Romania’s airspace. On November 17, a drone incident involved a Russian drone hitting a liquified-natural gas (LNG) carrier anchored in the Ukrainian Danube port of Izmail during a nighttime raid, which led Romanian authorities to evacuate two villages close to the river to protect the local population from a potential catastrophic explosion (Mediafax, November 17). Previously, a Russian drone crashed in the Danube Delta, on Romanian territory (MApN.ro, November 11).

Russia is using these repeated violations of Romanian airspace and sovereignty to avoid Ukrainian air defenses and test Bucharest’s willingness to stand up for itself on the Eastern Flank and on the Black Sea. At stake are both Romania’s credibility on the Eastern Flank before its allies and Russia, and public perception of the country’s ability to defend itself. Romanian policymakers have slowly realized that Russian incursions must be stopped, which may involve the use of force.

The first incident involving a Russian drone straying into Romanian airspace occurred in March 2022, when an Orlan-10 drone landed in a farmer’s field in the north of the country, somewhat far from the Ukrainian border (Hotnews.ro, March 14, 2022). Earlier that month, a large Ukrainian drone crossed for a brief time in Romanian airspace and, after flying unmolested through Hungarian airspace, crashed in a parking lot in Croatia (Libertatea, March 11, 2022).

The number of drone incursions has increased exponentially since Russia began its long-range drone campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure using Iranian-provided Shahed and Gerbera unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Since September 2023, Romania’s airspace has been violated repeatedly by Russian drones and one-way attack munitions headed for Ukrainian targets. Russia’s targeting of Ukrainian ports on the Danube and Romania’s 650-kilometer (403-mile) long border with Ukraine facilitate such incidents.

Romania’s proximity to Ukraine is only part of the explanation for the increase in airspace violations. The other reason is far more dangerous. The incursions are a part of a calculated hybrid campaign against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which aims to gauge reactions from potential targets and to gather intelligence on Romanian and NATO air defense capabilities in the Black Sea region. These incursions send a political message to Romania’s decision-makers: “Stop supporting Ukraine, or else!” Russia uses these incursions as a wedge between regular Romanians, who do not want to get involved in the war, and their government, which has discreetly supported Ukraine since the beginning of the large-scale conflict.

Romania has been hesitant to down Russian drones for fear of escalation. Ukraine has publicly urged its neighbor to destroy the drones as well as cruise missiles that stray into Romanian airspace, not just intercept them (Europa Liberă România, September 18, 2024). Bucharest’s initial reluctance to shoot down Russian drones has been a calculated risk, as the country, along with other NATO allies, has wanted to prevent Moscow from using the potential shooting down of a drone or multiple drones as an excuse to claim that the Alliance is a co-belligerent with Ukraine against Russia.

That other allied countries have hesitated to take decisive action against similar incursions until recently has reinforced Romania’s restrained position. Moreover, these incidents occurred in a sparsely populated area of the country, the Danube Delta, meaning that, although the drones were violating Romanian airspace, the danger to the population was generally low.

From a military perspective, Romania’s reluctance to bring down Russian drones that have entered its airspace is justified. All of the drones that crashed on Romanian territory did not carry an explosive warhead, meaning that they were decoys used to gauge the reaction of the local air defense or to map safe paths for other attacks. Holding fire was therefore justified, as it could have revealed the positions of Romanian air defense assets or capabilities that Russia need not know exist.

Romania has not remained passive. Over the past two years it has increased investments in air defense assets, such as modernizing its low-level air defense artillery, acquiring Chiron and Mistral man portable missiles, procuring low-level air defense radars, counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS), strengthening NATO air police in the country,  and asking its allies for assistance (SHAPE, October 17, 2023; Defense Romania, December 23, 2023; Bursa.ro, June 20, 2024; Presamil.ro, October 17, 2024; Europa Liberă România, January 6; Economedia.ro, June 23; TVRInfo, September 12). An early warning system was put in place to alert the population living close to the Ukrainian border of the impending danger, and air defense shelters have been built in the localities along the Danube, close to the border (Hotnews.ro, September 13, 2022; Europa Liberă România, October 23, 2024). The newest addition to Romania’s arsenal for combating the drone threat is the Merops C-UAS, which is currently being tested (Associated Press; Digi24, November 6). Merops is likely to be used for downing Russian drones that stray into Romanian airspace through jamming to reduce the risks to the local population.

The days when the Romanian Air Force and ground-based air defenses held their fire and just intercepted Russian one-way attack drones are drawing to a close. Despite taking two years, a new law has been passed concerning the engagement and shooting down of aircraft that violate Romanian airspace during peacetime and pose a threat to people and infrastructure (Curs de Guvernare, October 22). On September 10, however, when a Romanian F-16 intercepted a Russian drone that entered Romanian airspace, Romania had to hold fire because the Shahed UAV was flying too low and too close to a populated area, a factor that prevented the drone from being safely downed (RFI, September 14). The pilot nevertheless had orders to intercept and bring down the drone, but the circumstances did not allow it. This incident shows the complex challenges of the drone threat confronting NATO countries.

The perception of Romania’s actions in September has been negative. By “escorting” the drone into Ukrainian airspace, where it was probably shot down, Romania appeared to wash its hands of the threat and burden an already overwhelmed Ukrainian air defense with the task of protecting its airspace. Moreover, Romania’s inaction contrasted with the shooting down of four Russian drones by Polish and NATO aircraft, after nineteen Shaheds strayed deeply into Polish airspace (RFI, September 11).

Another change occurred in Romania’s diplomatic tone concerning Russian airspace violations, which has stiffened. Usually, after such incidents, the Russian ambassador would be summoned to the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where he would be presented with a diplomatic protest. The ambassador would usually dismiss the incident as a provocation or a hoax in a statement to the press and on social media. After a Russian drone incident from November 11, however, the Russian ambassador was presented with pictures and remnants of the UAV recovered from the crash site by Romanian authorities (Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, November 14). Furthermore, Romania threatened the Russian Federation with sanctions if a similar incident were to be repeated. The type of sanctions envisioned by Bucharest for Moscow’s repeated airspace violations has not been specified.

Romania has gradually realized that holding fire against Russian incursions sends the wrong message to the Kremlin and its allies. The next drone that crashes in Romanian territory may not land in an uninhabited area. The stiffening of the diplomatic tone and the increase in C-UAS capabilities suggest that the subsequent drone incursion in Romanian airspace will not go unpunished. The challenge remains how to avoid collateral damage and civilian casualties.