Executive Summary Militant groups in Northern Nigeria, including Boko Haram and Islamic State–West Africa Province (ISWAP), increasingly exploit encrypted messaging apps, social media algorithms, and AI tools to recruit, radicalize, and coordinate. Nigeria’s counterterrorism response has developed a legal framework and cyber units. Still, it... MORE

  Executive Summary Islamic State’s Libyan network remains degraded but resilient, sustained by integration with transnational smuggling and financial networks in the country’s south and links to instability in Sudan and the Sahel. Political and militia fragmentation in Tripoli and Haftar’s dynastic consolidation in the east... MORE

The BLA has become South Asia’s most capable active insurgent group, with growing manpower, sophisticated attacks, and strong social legitimacy among alienated Baloch youth. Pakistan’s security-first approach and new counterterrorism laws are fueling—not containing—the insurgency, pushing more Baloch toward militancy and entrenching anti-state resentment. The... MORE

Executive Summary JNIM is expanding both south and north, conducting new attacks in Benin and Niger nearing the borders of Algeria and Nigeria—showing ambitions to control a trans-Sahelian corridor that mirrors historical Islamic polities. The group is consolidating control in central Mali, potentially preparing for... MORE

Executive Summary: Niger claimed to have killed Boko Haram leader Bakura Doro in an August 22 drone strike, though this has been denied by the jihadist group. Islamic State–West Africa Province’s comparative strength in the Lake Chad region means that the potential death of Boko... MORE

Executive Summary: Since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, the banned Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir Bangladesh (HTB) has taken advantage of weak interim governance to openly campaign for its legalization, as well as stage protests and recruit among students, professionals, and elements of... MORE

Executive Summary: A deadly March 2025 clash in Mastung District in Balochistan ended the uneasy coexistence between the secular Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Islamic State–Khorasan Province (IS–KP). The rivalry creates an opportunity for the Pakistani government to exploit as the two groups dedicate resources... MORE

Executive Summary: Jamaah Ansharusy Syariah (JAS), once an anti-Islamic State jihadist splinter group, has shifted its stance since late 2024 by recognizing Indonesia as an “Islamic state” and softening its rejection of democracy. This marks a significant ideological pivot toward actively cooperating with state institutions.... MORE

Executive Summary: The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a Tuareg separatist group formed in December 2024, has intensified attacks on the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and their Russian Africa Corps allies. As the FAMa and Africa Corps struggle to contain the insurgency, the FLA may position... MORE

Executive Summary: In the first half of 2025, Islamic State’s five African provinces conducted 565 attacks across nine countries, with a sharp rise tied to the launch of its “Burning Camps” campaign targeting military bases and camps at night. Islamic State (IS) also appears to... MORE