Executive Summary: Niger claimed to have killed Boko Haram leader Bakura Doro in an August 22 drone strike, though this has been denied by the jihadist group. Islamic State–West Africa Province’s comparative strength in the Lake Chad region means that the potential death of Boko... MORE

Executive Summary: Since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, the banned Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir Bangladesh (HTB) has taken advantage of weak interim governance to openly campaign for its legalization, as well as stage protests and recruit among students, professionals, and elements of... MORE

Executive Summary: A deadly March 2025 clash in Mastung District in Balochistan ended the uneasy coexistence between the secular Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Islamic State–Khorasan Province (IS–KP). The rivalry creates an opportunity for the Pakistani government to exploit as the two groups dedicate resources... MORE

Executive Summary: Jamaah Ansharusy Syariah (JAS), once an anti-Islamic State jihadist splinter group, has shifted its stance since late 2024 by recognizing Indonesia as an “Islamic state” and softening its rejection of democracy. This marks a significant ideological pivot toward actively cooperating with state institutions.... MORE

Executive Summary: The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a Tuareg separatist group formed in December 2024, has intensified attacks on the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and their Russian Africa Corps allies. As the FAMa and Africa Corps struggle to contain the insurgency, the FLA may position... MORE

Executive Summary: In the first half of 2025, Islamic State’s five African provinces conducted 565 attacks across nine countries, with a sharp rise tied to the launch of its “Burning Camps” campaign targeting military bases and camps at night. Islamic State (IS) also appears to... MORE

Executive Summary: A July 19 Iranian drone strike killed a Free Life Party of Kurdistan (PJAK) fighter in Iraqi Kurdistan, prompting retaliatory attacks by PJAK in Iran’s Baneh and Sardasht regions and signaling a breakdown in the 2011 ceasefire. PJAK has emphasized it will not... MORE

Executive Summary: The Sultan Suleiman Shah Division ("Amshat") and Hamza Division ("Hamzat") have resisted integration into Syria’s new military hierarchy post-Assad, maintaining direct financial and logistical ties to Turkey. The groups appear to be continuing to serve Ankara’s strategic interests, deploying them as a proxy... MORE

Executive Summary: Founded in 1973, the Polisario Front remains a UN-recognized secular liberation movement seeking independence from Moroccan rule. U.S. legislators are considering labeling the Sahrawi independence movement a terrorist group, fueled by allegations of ties to Iran, Hezbollah, and global jihadist networks, despite a... MORE

Executive Summary: Philippine officials declared the island of Basilan free of Abu Sayyaf on June 10. Basilan was formerly one of the group’s strongholds and represents another example of the group’s near-complete degradation. With the war on Islamist radical groups in Southeast Asia largely won,... MORE