China Brief Notes

Xinjiang Security Expo Reflects the Limits of U.S. Sanctions
Executive Summary: The annual Central Asia Digital Security Expo in Xinjiang is supported by the U.S.-sanctioned Xinjiang Public Security Bureau and brings technology firms together to network and market their products under the context of the CCP’s ongoing campaign of repression. Federal sanctions, due diligence,... MORE

Fungus Smuggling Case Highlights Agricultural Espionage in the United States
Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has a long history of engaging in agricultural espionage and, potentially, sabotage in the United States. This is partly to decouple from U.S. agriculture, and partly to achieve food security in the event of a major conflict... MORE

Beijing Accelerates State-Led AI Mobilization Under Xi’s ‘New National System’
Executive Summary: Beijing is moving to systematically embed artificial intelligence into its national innovation system, according to a high-level leadership meeting of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) in early June. This marks the beginning of a new phase in which AI development... MORE

Explainer: How Xi’s ‘New National System’ Centralizes Innovation to Counter Tech Containment
Executive Summary: Since 2019, the Party has promoted the construction of a “new national system”—a centrally directed, institutionalized framework for mobilizing state and market resources to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies vital to national power and security. Beijing sees this system as already delivering results... MORE

New Legislation Could Increase Security Presence in Hong Kong
Executive Summary: Two new pieces of national security legislation in Hong Kong introduce six offenses and six “prohibited places,” signaling closer alignment with the laws of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) mainland and raising concerns about the safety and freedom of foreigners and locals.... MORE

PRC Positions Brazil as Regional Hub in a New Latin American Order
Executive Summary: Brazil, a strategic partner to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), is taking a co-leading role in shaping a regional economic order decoupled from U.S.-centric trade and financial norms. The most consequential outcome of President Lula’s recent visit to Beijing was the signing... MORE

Trade Talks, Real Moves: PRC Locks Down Critical Minerals Behind the Scenes
Executive Summary: Beijing has formally escalated its critical minerals strategy by launching a coordinated, multi-agency campaign to enforce full-chain control over rare earth and strategic mineral exports, mobilizing more than a dozen central and provincial agencies to supervise mining, processing, licensing, and export operations. Authorities... MORE

In Moscow, Xi Defends the International Order by Misremembering It
Executive Summary: At Moscow’s 80th Victory Day parade, President Xi Jinping positioned the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a key anti-fascist power alongside Russia, using a selective World War II narrative to legitimize the PRC’s present-day international role and deepen symbolic ties with the... MORE

Stabilization and ‘Struggle’: Strategic Signals from April’s Politburo and Trade Meetings
Executive Summary: April’s Politburo meetings and subsequent policy deployments indicate that Xi Jinping and his fellow Politburo members are scrambling to adapt to a harsher external environment—one marked by persistent U.S. tariffs, accelerating technology decoupling, and slowing global demand. Beijing’s response points toward deeper economic... MORE

Xi Establishes ‘Strategic Endurance’ Priorities for the PRC’s Next Five-Year Plan
Executive Summary: Xi Jinping’s April 30 remarks preview a fundamental shift in the Party’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), signaling that national security—not growth—is now the central organizing principle of economic planning. A new “security pattern” will be directly integrated with the “development pattern,” embedding... MORE