Executive Summary: Russia’s influence in the Caspian Sea littoral has declined since 2020 due to Moscow’s war against Ukraine diminishing Russian resources and international standing, regional conflicts and reordering, and the growing navies of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Iran. Türkiye has been instrumental in helping Azerbaijan... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has led to a domestic fuel crisis, as Ukraine’s repeated drone strikes on oil facilities, as well as international sanctions, have constrained Russia’s largest industry. In September, Russia’s gasoline production fell by almost a quarter, forcing... MORE

Executive Summary: The nationality line in Russian passports, which Moscow exploited to oppress minorities in Soviet times, no longer exists, but official nationality as a legal category still exists in Russia, forcing many to turn to the courts to defend their interests. Unless they can... MORE

Executive Summary: On October 6, privately-owned Russian oil company RussNeft delivered 105,340 tons of Siberian Light crude to Georgia’s newly built, partially state-financed Kulevi refinery, its first full-cycle refinery capable of producing Euro-5 gasoline and diesel. Independent sources classify the vessel that delivered the oil... MORE

Executive Summary: On October 22, Russia conducted its annual strategic nuclear forces exercise, coinciding with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO’s) “Steadfast Noon” drills, which Moscow routinely denounces as provocative and threatening. The Russian exercise openly rehearsed nuclear launch authorization and retaliatory/counter-retaliatory strike procedures. Unofficially,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated his nuclear brinkmanship, announcing tests of new weapons, such as the Burevestnik and Poseidon weapon systems. After these tests, U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly responded by ordering the United States to prepare for resumed nuclear testing “on an... MORE