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Moscow Seemingly Escalates Confrontation With Europe
Executive Summary: Germany detained two suspected Russian agents for allegedly planning to sabotage military facilities while Russian propagandists deny the existence of an espionage network. Moscow appears to increasingly consider the West as its primary military adversary, supported by Russian political analysts shifting their focus... MORE
A Disturbance in the Force: The Reorganization of People’s Liberation Army Command and Elimination of China’s Strategic Support Force
Executive Summary: Consolidation and refinement of military information power capabilities within the new Information Support Force (ISF) continues to reflect the PLA’s outsized emphasis on battlespace information control in multi-domain integrated joint operations. The April 2024 reorganization eliminated the Strategic Support Force and subordinated the... MORE
PRC Exploitation of Russian Intelligence Networks in Europe
Executive Summary: Russian-cultivated circles overlap with People’s Republic of China (PRC) intelligence networks. These intersections include politicians on both extremes of Europe’s political spectrum, and across countries which include Belgium, Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic. “Daniel Woo,” a PRC state security officer, is a... MORE
NATO’s New Energy Makes Russia Anxious and Angry
Executive Summary As NATO takes steps to increase its solidarity, Russian propagandists have responded by exaggerating Western disunity. Kremlin propaganda portrays NATO’s strengthening European pillar as evidence of weakening US leadership. A more concerted focus on Western disunity has become a way for Russia to... MORE
Russia’s Growing Isolation Changes Balance of War
Executive Summary: Strengthened Western resolve to roll back Moscow’s invasion is beginning to coincide more strongly with the interests of the “world majority” in seeking renewed global stability. The approval of the US aid package to Ukraine could alter the course of war, and a... MORE
Updated ILO Forced Labor Guidelines Directly Target Uyghur Forced Labor
Executive Summary: For first time since establishing its forced labor taskforce in 2001, the International Labour Organization (ILO) has issued authoritative and comprehensive guidance on operationalizing the research and measurement of forced labor, updating its more provisional guidelines from 2012. The new ILO Handbook adds... MORE
Gagauzia Plans to Declare Independence If Moldova Pursues Unity With Romania
Executive Summary: Gagauzia, a small Christian Turkic and pro-Russian autonomous region, says it will exercise its right to secede and form an independent state if Moldova becomes a part of Romania. Chisinau’s pursuit of EU membership and its increasing pressure on Gagauzia, Moscow’s desire to... MORE
Putin Touts Incompatible Contradictions
Executive Summary: The contradictions between Russian President Vladimir Putin's rhetoric and the realities of everyday life in Russia—including the promises of economic and social stability—have become more evident since his "election" victory. Putin routinely boasts of significant economic and demographic growth, despite the fact that... MORE
Multi-Prong Peace Offensive Pushes Putin Into Corner
Executive Summary: Moscow projects confidence with its continued offensive in Ukraine, but the Kremlin is worried about growing international efforts for peace talks and increased discontent at home. Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan is taking steps to engage in this summer’s peace talks, while China... MORE
Russia Determined to Take Over Moldova or Break It (Part Two)
Executive Summary: Russia’s agenda in Moldova is an extension of Moscow’s war in Ukraine and its policy to re-expand into the intermediate zone between Russia and the West. The Kremlin’s top priority is to derail Moldova’s candidacy for EU membership by replacing the current government... MORE